Blu-Ray Consumer Adoption

[neosoulman]

Hi
I too, like many here it seems, am doing a research paper for school.

I'm looking for any stats regarding the forecasted adoption rate for BR Players in 2006 and beyond. I've been able to find historical data on DVD Player sales since 1997, and I suppose I could use that as a baseline, but what I'm really looking for are any figures that anyone might know about, specific to what the Major Hardware manufacturers think the rate that consumers will adopt this new technology, and spend money to buy new players.

Any info is appreciated!
Thanks

[thunderhawk]

Adoption rate... Good one.
Analists say a bit less then DVD did. No facts or numbers I think are on the web... Maybe the others know more about this.

[Blue]

Originally Posted by neosoulman

Hi


I'm looking for any stats regarding the forecasted adoption rate for BR Players in 2006 and beyond. Thanks

I'm sure all companies have their projected forecasts, but the critical one will be Toshiba's. If HD-DVD dies a peaceful death, then I suspect uptake will be faster than DVD as the TV / projector sales will fuel it and vice versa. If HD-DVD gets out to market first and we have to have a format war - well then it's possible for Holograhic Disk group to pass both of them. If Blu Ray is out there and establishes it's market dominance before HD-DVD recovers from it's coma, which although remote, is possible it may get a body transplant as it's in the intesnive care ward of Microsoft General with all medical expenses paid by Intel.

As you won't get any stats for the projected Blu Ray - why not modify your answer (if allowed) and show trends. You could then show what happens with a format war with the stats for VHS vs Beta compared to DVD (no format war).

[AV_Integrated]

I would also add information about game player sales for the PS2 and X-Box as the PS3 will mark the first time a new technology like this is included in such a product. DVD had been out for years before the PS2 included it, and PS2 sales were amazing.

I personally expect that first year PS3 sales will outnumber the combined totals of Blu-Ray and HD-DVD stand alone players by a 20 to 1 margin. This is based on players coming in at a price around $1,000 for the first generation players.

Of course with Pioneer announcing a in-PC drive within the next 3 months... we can only hope that Blu-Ray is about to lay down the iron fist on HD-DVD and that Microsoft has as much skill in the emergency room as it does in creating a reliable OS.