Nielsen Prediction Thread for 14.03.08 (due Wednesday 12.03.08)

[Winn]

Both sides have a slim release slate this week. We'll start with Blu-ray and it's mighty three releases. Fox brings Ice Age and the awfully named Mr. Magorium's Wonder Emporium to Blu this week. They are joined by Disney's real life baseball classic The Rookie.

HD DVD sadly bids adieu to Paramount this week as they release their last HD DDVD title with Into The Wild. Pretty appropriate name for a last title, actually. They are joined by Dreamwork's last release with the also aptly named Things We Lost In the Fire. Things are rounded out with Warner's delayed release of No Reservations and Navarre's Mystic Forests.

There are no neutral releases this week.

As always, thanks to manikin for maintaining the release schedule.


IMPORTANT NOTE: Please make your prediction with BD:HD even if you are going to predict HD DVD winning the week. Also, you are predicting the BD numbers, the HD DVD is implied. If I am confused, I will ask you for clarification if there is time before the deadline. Otherwise, you are stuck with how I read it.

The prediction period will close at 5 P.M Eastern time. That is 2 P.M. for those of you in Pacific time. This will get us ahead of the leaks. The numbers on March 7th will cover sales from February 25th-March 2nd, inclusive.


HD DVD
Into The Wild (Paramount)
Things We Lost In The Fire (Dreamworks)
Mystic Forests (Navarre Corporation)
No Reservations (Warner)

Blu-ray
Ice Age (Fox)
Mr. Magorium's Wonder Emporium (Fox)
The Rookie (2002) (Walt Disney)

[Winn]

Weekly Stats

Week	Picks	Perfect	High		Actual	Low		Mean	Median	Mode
1	77	5	99 (16) [31]	83	69 (14) [41]	83.12	82	82
2	124	6	99 (17) [82]	82	69 (13) [32]	84.31	84	84
3	145	2	90 (16) [141]	74	69 (15) [2]	82.76	83	85
4	124	14	91 (10) [41]	81	67 (14) [69]	80.24	80	80
5	121	0	99* (26) [121]	73	78 (-5) [0]	86.88	86	85
6	66	2	95 (18) [56]	77	68 (9) [8]	82.88	82	81
7	58	6	94 (19) [42]	75	69 (6) [10]	79.49	79	80

*Guess of 100% ignored as they are technically impossible due to truncating.

Nielsen contest results for 03/07/2008

Correct Nielsen/VideoScan ratio : 75:25

NAME                Guess   Attempts   Avg. Score
coolmilo            75:25          1         0.00
getblu              76:24          2         0.50
Squozen             74:26          1         1.00
mystiksuicide       72:28          6         3.67
SGRSBSKIER          75:25          7         3.71
BluWave             76:24          6         4.17
Winn                76:24          7         4.29
grovey              79:21          5         4.60
JadedRaverLA        78:22          6         4.67
Slapper             69:31          6         4.67
Blu-raider          75:25          4         4.75
Jackietreehorn      74:26          5         4.80
subgun              75:25          6         4.83
Pellaeon            74:26          7         4.86
patrick99           78:22          7         5.00
FFObsessed          76:24          6         5.00
Rup_Muk             72:28          6         5.00
Zotar               80:20          5         5.00
dgator783           73:27          2         5.00
saprano             80:20          1         5.00
CptGreedle          80:20          4         5.25
pokerface           79:21          4         5.25
DJeffries           72:28          6         5.33
jknuss01            79:21          5         5.40
digibob             75:25          6         5.50
BluStar88           80:20          2         5.50
sj001               79:21          7         5.57
unreal1080p         79:21          7         5.57
Ispoke              80:20          6         5.83
w tanoto            74:26          7         5.86
klac                79:21          7         6.00
Irishwiseguy2006    83:17          5         6.00
jimsch42            80:20          5         6.00
savage1984          83:17          2         6.00
blurayboy           78:22          5         6.20
kolasi              77:23          6         6.33
Clark Kent          79:21          6         6.50
Denzelio            80:20          6         6.50
goodstuff           72:28          6         6.50
Fozziwig            82:18          7         6.57
MarekM              79:21          7         6.57
cabezon1184         81:19          6         6.83
gand41f             75:25          7         7.14
Craig Ruchman       80:20          4         7.25
Lou-Cipher          90:10          5         7.80
GregBlu5            87:13          6         9.17
56@Yamamoto         83:17          4         9.50
MOONPHASE           85:15          1        10.00
TheRealBob          90:10          6        10.17
Ops2p               84:16          5        10.40
plee                82:18          3        10.67
Kayne314            83:17          2        11.50
Rolo71              82:18          4        11.75
MadScientist        88:12          4        12.00
cartman781          88:12          4        12.75
WriteSimply         96:4           5        13.80
PaulGo              90:10          1        15.00
Rob_BluRay          90:10          1        15.00

[Winn]

Ok, here is how this round is going to work. The game might end at any time. If we get up to 10 weeks, anyone who made 8 guesses will be prize eligible. The contest will automatically end at 15 weeks. Anyone with 12 guesses at that point is prize eligible. Anyone who made a full 15 guesses will have their worst guess removed for the final scoring for prizes.

There will only be prizes if people donate them. If you have an extra copy of a movie, feel free to let me know you want to add it to the prize pool.

SCORING RULES

There have been some questions about how scoring works. The score used to determine the winner of the contest is an average of all picks.

Tie breakers:

1- # of perfect picks.
2- # of picks off by 1.
3- # of picks off by 2.
4- Earliest perfect pick.
5- Earliest pick off by 1.
6- Earliest pick off by 2.
7- Coin toss.

[blurayboy]

80:20

[sj001]

76:24

[jknuss01]

75:25

[coolmilo]

I am going with 79/21 this week. Next week we judge the March 11th titles and that is going to result in a very lopped sided win.

[goodstuff]

73:27

[Denzelio]

78:22

[w_tanoto]

i'm ready to step-up my bid:
80:20

[klac]

81:19

[Rup_Muk]

A rather uninspiring week:

75:25 is my call.

Rup.

[Slapper]

77/23

[GORT]

80-20

[blindcat87]

I'll go 78:22 this week. Can't wait for next weeks #s.

Chris