Physical & Digital EST: The Future of Home Video Discussion Thread

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by cgpublic

All of us recognize that streaming represents growth, that pay TV via cable and physical media are contracting and represent negative growth, and a million charts that present growth in the aggregate (all revenue including that from live entertainment including sports, news, SVOD and/or broadband services) from self-serving promotion companies can't mask the decline, as noted a few days ago in Variety:

You need to be more clear. Subscription streaming represents growth. Digital HD is showing shockingly bad signs even this early. The growth is shrinking and it will probably peak very soon.

You are kidding yourself if you think that’s a healthy market.

[Vilya]

If you breakdown 2019's total digital revenue of $20.439 billion, you will see that subscription streaming was 77.8% of that total.

EST represented just 12.6% and video on demand was merely 9.6% of total digital revenue.

As for growth rates, subscription streaming was up 23.73%. EST was up just 5.12% and video on demand was down 6.19%.

The only strong digital performer is subscription streaming; everything else is, for lack of a better term, just a niche digital market.

Content purchases, disc or digital, are both basically a niche segment of the home entertainment market. Individual title rentals, physical and digital, are also just small slices of the total pie. If you factor in Pay TV revenue, not shown in the Digital Entertainment Group's reports, then all of these niches get pretty tiny and subscription streaming itself comes in a very, very distant second place to Pay TV revenue.

[Show spoiler]

[avs commenter]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

You need to be more clear. Subscription streaming represents growth. Digital HD is showing shockingly bad signs even this early. The growth is shrinking and it will probably peak very soon.

You are kidding yourself if you think that’s a healthy market.

Why the big obsession with EST?

Physical media sales will continue to shrink, mostly due to streaming subscription services, not EST. Dis+ will hurt both, but probably EST more so than physical.

[gpete]

There is a lot of interesting information on this thread. I just wanted to add two little things that have affected my views on digital vs physical.

What drove me toward digital was Sony killing off the 400 disc changers. Obviously I was in the minority there since they did kill them off but I love my changers. Put in the disc, put the case away and just look up the movie on my spread sheet. Life was good. I just can't deal with the the hundreds of DVD, Bluray and UHD cases so I have moved to about 60% digital, 40% physical for the movies we really like. If Sony came out with a 400 disc 4k player today, I'd buy three and be back in business

I also believe it's all the folks with vehicles with DVD systems that keep DVDs rolling along. I believe as we see technology in cars change to support downloading and/or streaming our digital content that will greatly reduce the remaining demand for DVDs. The slight cost difference between DVD and Bluray just doesn't seem like a deterrent to not move to Bluray when it comes to home theater.

Pete

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by gpete

There is a lot of interesting information on this thread.

Pete

We're more fun than a barrel of monkeys alright. It is why this thread has over 1 million views.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by Vilya

If you breakdown 2019's total digital revenue of $20.439 billion, you will see that subscription streaming was 77.8% of that total.

EST represented just 12.6% and video on demand was merely 9.6% of total digital revenue.

As for growth rates, subscription streaming was up 23.73%. EST was up just 5.12% and video on demand was down 6.19%.

The only strong digital performer is subscription streaming; everything else is, for lack of a better term, just a niche digital market.

Content purchases, disc or digital, are both basically a niche segment of the home entertainment market. Individual title rentals, physical and digital, are also just small slices of the total pie. If you factor in Pay TV revenue, not shown in the Digital Entertainment Group's reports, then all of these niches get pretty tiny and subscription streaming itself comes in a very, very distant second place to Pay TV revenue.

[Show spoiler]

Digital HD is very reliant on animated films. Disney+ will almost certainly affect the format even more negatively.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by avs commenter

Why the big obsession with EST?

Physical media sales will continue to shrink, mostly due to streaming subscription services, not EST. Dis+ will hurt both, but probably EST more so than physical.

Because we were told they were the future from members on here (The forum). As we are mostly collectors, it’s naturally going to be the biggest comparison. Like some guys have rightly said, subscription streaming is just pay tv on steroids.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by Vilya

We're more fun than a barrel of monkeys alright. It is why this thread has over 1 million views.

[avs commenter]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

Because we were told they were the future from members on here (The forum). As we are mostly collectors, it’s naturally going to be the biggest comparison. Like some guys have rightly said, subscription streaming is just pay tv on steroids.

Well it is the future. But the future of a niche market.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

What's really amusing, or annoying depending on one's point of view, is that you and I combined represent 38.7% of the posts in this thread. If we aren't already, we should soon be legends in our own minds.

The four most prolific posers, , I mean posters are, in order,: you, me, alchav21, and Wendell. The four of us represent 49.3% of the posts in this thread. A fine assortment of mixed nuts if there ever was one.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by Vilya

What's really amusing, or annoying depending on one's point of view, is that you and I combined represent 38.7% of the posts in this thread. If we aren't already, we should soon be legends in our own minds.

The four most prolific posers, , I mean posters are, in order,: you, me, alchav21, and Wendell. The four of us represent 49.3% of the posts in this thread. A fine assortment of mixed nuts if there ever was one.

Well yeah, but I can be fruity as well.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by avs commenter

Well it is the future. But the future of a niche market.

It’s hardly the present.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

Well yeah, but I can be fruity as well.

You're a real



alright.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by gpete

I also believe it's all the folks with vehicles with DVD systems that keep DVDs rolling along. I believe as we see technology in cars change to support downloading and/or streaming our digital content that will greatly reduce the remaining demand for DVDs. The slight cost difference between DVD and Bluray just doesn't seem like a deterrent to not move to Bluray when it comes to home theater.

Pete

Just curious, but do recent models of suburban family assault vehicles still come with DVD players? I would have guessed that most have long since switched to offering mobile hotspots instead.

[Wendell R. Breland]

Over the last two months I have watched quite a few episodes of episodic TV with Dolby Atmos audio. Most was from Netflix and some from Amazon. For about 97% of the time the content may as well have been in LCR. Not a surprise as doing a lot of Foley work cost money. IMO, these providers add these technologies so as not to be seen lagging behind what disc has to offer.

Watched S8 Game of Thrones via Blu-ray disc (Netflix) and the Atmos audio is in another league compared to the streaming episodic TV. to HBO.

[avs commenter]

Originally Posted by Vilya

Just curious, but do recent models of suburban family assault vehicles still come with DVD players? I would have guessed that most have long since switched to offering mobile hotspots instead.

No, most, if not all major brands stopped offering the DVD players a couple years ago.

[Wendell R. Breland]

Originally Posted by gpete

I also believe it's all the folks with vehicles with DVD systems that keep DVDs rolling along.

A FYI, my 2015 Chrysler mini van has a Blu-ray player. Also plays CD's and DVD's. Most of the time I use the built in 32GB SSD for my music listening.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by Wendell R. Breland

A FYI, my 2015 Chrysler mini van has a Blu-ray player. Also plays CD's and DVD's. Most of the time I use the built in 32GB SSD for my music listening.

I kinda figured you would have the blu-ray equipped M1A1 of suburban family assault vehicles.

[Wendell R. Breland]

Originally Posted by avs commenter

No, most, if not all major brands stopped offering the DVD players a couple years ago.

What BS, lots of 2019 and 2020 vehicles with DVD player options.

Have looked in quite a few RV's and travel trailers in the last 6 months and everyone of them had 1 or more TV's and 1 or more DVD players. The more upscale models had Blu-ray players.

My brothers Tiffin Phaeton has two setup's with the front one having 5.1 sound system.

[Vilya]

Just to be clear, I was wondering if DVD players were still being offered on family vehicles in daily usage, such as the ubiquitous minivan or SUV. I was not including RVs as these are not vehicles that one drives routinely nor are they vehicles that many families can even afford to own.