Oscar Race (2013)

[Snicket]

Where are people at with The Hobbit? I don't really know what to do with it best picture wise, but I'm pretty close at leaving it off my noms altogether.

[Cabby]

The Hobbit won't be nominated for much other than technical stuff. It's getting pretty lukewarm reviews. It certainly doesn't seem like Oscar-caliber stuff.

For Best Picture:


LOCKS:
Argo
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
Les Miserables

POTENTIALS:

Life Of Pi
Beasts Of the Southern Wild
Moonrise Kingdom

LONGSHOTS (BUT STILL HAVE A CHANCE):

The Master
Amour
Flight
Django Unchained
The Dark Knight Rises

[prozacnation1978]

I didn't like flight
Life of pi was alright. I thought Argo was better
I'm gonna see Lincoln this weekend

[EricJ]

Originally Posted by Cinemach

Of those already released...
-Argo and Lincoln are locks.
-Life of Pi has a great shot, but I'm not willing to call lock yet. It seems to be admired more from a technical marvel than as a film, which doesn't wholly preclude it and may not even be a hindrance this year, with potentially ten slots and a weak(er) field.

In a five-nom year, Pi looks to be one of those fringe-cult favorites with the voters that ultimately gets pawned off with an honorable-mention Director, and maybe Supporting Actor for the lead.
But, we'll probably get seven or eight this year, so the fan-voters will stick it on the end. Which is more than can be said of Django or Master.

-Moonrise Kingdom or Beasts of the Southern Wild can snap up the 'small/indie' slot, but there is not the overwhelming popular buzz for those as seen from indie champions of years past.

Beasts is too indie, and is likely going to be pawned off with a "breakout" Acting/Supp nomination for little Quo Vadis, or whatever her name is.
And Moonrise....it's been almost fifteen years since Rushmore, does Wes Anderson even know where the Oscar theater is?

[blujazz]

If I was a betting man, I would bet on

Amour - Longshot but my favourite film of the year, so far.
Argo - Great thriller and Hollywood saving the day doesn't hurt with voters.
Beasts of the Southern Wild - Superb film but let down by its Oprah ending.
Les Miserables - Great film that entranced me for almost three hours. I would not be disappointed if this won.
Life of Pi - A disappointment and is only in the running because of PR and pedigree.
Lincoln - Prestige film the Academy loves to shower with kudos.
The Master - Have not seen it, yet.
Silver Linings Playbook - Neither.
Zero Dark Thirty - Neither.

I really have a weak spot for disaster movies and The Impossible is a really good one, so I could add that in.
Moonrise Kingdom, The Hobbit and Django Unchained could get in but this year is a really crowded one.

Maybe if Tarantino subverted himself from directing yet another revenge film, he could've had a shot. At the moment, he feels like he's almost a parody of himself. Then again, haven't seen the film yet. :P

[Snicket]

Originally Posted by Cabby

The Hobbit won't be nominated for much other than technical stuff. It's getting pretty lukewarm reviews. It certainly doesn't seem like Oscar-caliber stuff.

I think you are correct. I don't tend to read or even look for reviews before I see a film but all the talk has been the 48fps, which probably tells you a lot about the film.

Originally Posted by EricJ

it's been almost fifteen years since Rushmore, does Wes Anderson even know where the Oscar theater is?

Does he even care?

[EricJ]

Originally Posted by Snicket

Does he even care?

If he doesn't, I don't.

[Snicket]

Originally Posted by EricJ

If he doesn't, I don't.

He is up to 7 films with number 8 on the way, if there ever was a time he really cared for critical acclaim, that time has come and gone, it's pretty clear he is only telling stories he thinks are interesting and not for any other reason.

Doesn't make him any less of an interesting filmmaker. Not by a long shot.

[Foggy]

Why was The Master a long shot, it just won Sight and Sounds best film of 2012 this week?

[Snicket]

Originally Posted by Foggy

Why was The Master a long shot, it just won Sight and Sounds best film of 2012 this week?

Sight and Sound is good for getting praise, but not for making big pushes for Oscars. It needed more mainstream critics making a bigger push for it.

At this point I wouldn't be surprised to see it fall out of the best picture race altogether, it's not making any noise and did not hang around for too long after it was released. At least...that's how I'm reading it.

I went and looked at other Sight and Sound polls, they usually do not line up at all with Oscar noms. They might match one or two but they are usually on a different page. I'm curious as to whom they are polling.

[chris_sc77]

Originally Posted by Hucksta G

Right now I'm thinking best pic nominees will be...

BEST PICTURE
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
The Impossible
Les Misérables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

...maybe Django Unchained, The Hobbit and The Master

If Life of Pi gets a nomination but Django or Dark Knight RIses fail to get a nomination I will be furious. Pi was one of the worst films I have seen all year. Just a frustrating, horribly acted film that I wish had never been made.
Also I really hope that list doesn;t turn out to be what will indeed be nominated. Such a boring list.

[Rizor]

Originally Posted by EricJ

And Moonrise....it's been almost fifteen years since Rushmore, does Wes Anderson even know where the Oscar theater is?

He's been nominated twice.

[Lehnhart]

As far as Animated Features, I'm sure Brave, Wreck-It Ralph will be nominated. Maybe along with ParaNorman and Frankenweekie.

What's everyone's thoughts on Rise of the Guardians? Not a lot of people have seen the film, but I thought it was fantastic. My favorite animated film of the year. Any chance it get's a nod? Probably not

[colbster901]

Cloud Atlas
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Life of Pi
Prometheus

These are my favorites of the year, Cloud Atlas being my personal pick for Best Picture...though It won't win, I'm claiming it as such. Life of Pi was gorgeous to look at, Beasts of the Southern Wild had the best performance by an actress, and Prometheus will win at least one award I hope.

But...I'm usually wrong. Last year, when Meryl Streep took the prize over Tilda Swinton, I was screaming at my TV. Meryl Streep sensed my anger, if you all remember what she said in her speech? She said she could feel people everywhere saying "No! Not her!!".

I hope Cloud Atlas takes home at least one award. I simply enjoyed that film.

Oh, and a small part of me thinks 007 Skyfall will win something too.

[Monkey]

Originally Posted by Lehnhart

As far as Animated Features, I'm sure Brave, Wreck-It Ralph will be nominated. Maybe along with ParaNorman and Frankenweekie.

What's everyone's thoughts on Rise of the Guardians? Not a lot of people have seen the film, but I thought it was fantastic. My favorite animated film of the year. Any chance it get's a nod? Probably not

I thought Rise of the Guardians is the best animated movie I've watched in a long time, far better than Brave (just okay). Wreck it Ralph is really good as well; very different that Rise of the Guardians.

[blujazz]

The Oscars is never about solely on quality - it's also influenced how good a campaign is (Life of Pi, Crash), how much an actor is beloved (Streep) or if the actor is long overdue for an award (Gere).

[movielib]

Originally Posted by Lehnhart

As far as Animated Features, I'm sure Brave, Wreck-It Ralph will be nominated. Maybe along with ParaNorman and Frankenweekie.

What's everyone's thoughts on Rise of the Guardians? Not a lot of people have seen the film, but I thought it was fantastic. My favorite animated film of the year. Any chance it get's a nod? Probably not

I thought Rise of the Guardians was terrible, boring as hell and messy. I liked Brave but it was somewhat underwhelming, more like a slightly above middle of the road Disney (not Pixar) animated picture. Oddly, Wreck-It Ralph was more like a Pixar film, at least in tone and story.

My choice for Best Animated Picture is Wreck-It Ralph, which surprised me immensely as I thought it looked lousy from the trailer.

[Snicket]

Zero Dark Thirty wins again at the national board of review...

The train keeps rolling.

[Hucksta G]

Looks like Zero Dark Thirty is becoming the front runner?

[chris_sc77]

Originally Posted by Hucksta G

Looks like Zero Dark Thirty is becoming the front runner?

I really really hope Bigelow doesn't screw Tarantino out of another much deserved Oscar. She has made some very good films but I would take Quentin's weakest film over Bigelow's entire filmography. Basterds was 100 times the film Hurt Locker was and has infinitely more re-watchabiliy than that film. If Chastain takes Best actress I am cool with that. She is such a tremendous actress and certainly deserves the recognition . I loved so many of her performances since she came out of nowhere a couple years ago. But if ZD30 cleans up this year I am gonna be so depressed and bored by the academy yet once again.