Physical & Digital EST: The Future of Home Video Discussion Thread

[Lee A Stewart]

This seems to be a moot point - theaters reopening. Do a search and you will see very few if any movie theaters will reopen on the dates their Governors have said it was OK. All the staff was let go - they have to be rehired. Then they have to be trained to clean the theaters. The numbers I have seen for allowed occupancy range from 20% up to 50% depending on the theater's seating capabilities.

And when they reopen, what will they show? The first "big" movie (MULAN) is scheduled for a July release date if Disney sticks with it.

Have you noticed that prior to the success of the TROLLS movie, nothing was said about any of the other movies that went to PVOD. NATO didn't say squat! But now, after a successful PVOD, they are terrified of what the future may hold for them. It's no secret that every year less tickets are sold than the prior year. The only thing propping up the BO revenue is the fact that every year they raise the price of a ticket.

IMO this is a bad kneejerk reaction from AMC. Their greatest fear has come true . . . Hollywood may not have to depend on movie theaters for revenue.

How long will it take until theaters are allowed to sell every single seat? Because that's the only way a studio can make the big bucks necessary to continue making expensive tentpole movies.

The attitude of AMC is "we are suffering . . . and so should you!"

[Ender14]

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

This seems to be a moot point - theaters reopening. Do a search and you will see very few if any movie theaters will reopen on the dates their Governors have said it was OK. All the staff was let go - they have to be rehired. Then they have to be trained to clean the theaters. The numbers I have seen for allowed occupancy range from 20% up to 50% depending on the theater's seating capabilities.

And when they reopen, what will they show? The first "big" movie (MULAN) is scheduled for a July release date if Disney sticks with it.

Have you noticed that prior to the success of the TROLLS movie, nothing was said about any of the other movies that went to PVOD. NATO didn't say squat! But now, after a successful PVOD, they are terrified of what the future may hold for them. It's no secret that every year less tickets are sold than the prior year. The only thing propping up the BO revenue is the fact that every year they raise the price of a ticket.

IMO this is a bad kneejerk reaction from AMC. Their greatest fear has come true . . . Hollywood may not have to depend on movie theaters for revenue.

How long will it take until theaters are allowed to sell every single seat? Because that's the only way a studio can make the big bucks necessary to continue making expensive tentpole movies.

The attitude of AMC is "we are suffering . . . and so should you!"

You would be fine if all movie theaters went out of business? It wouldn't bother you to never have the theatrical experience again? If so, why is that? I know some people who have that attitude and I'm curious as to the reason.

[Lee A Stewart]

Originally Posted by Ender14

You would be fine if all movie theaters went out of business? It wouldn't bother you to never have the theatrical experience again? If so, why is that? I know some people who have that attitude and I'm curious as to the reason.

I reread my post and fail to see the draconian measures that you are asking me. I won't get into a pissing match with you. That will accomplish nothing.

Now . . . if you wish to either make another post or edit this one, being less hostile and adversarial, I might respond with answers to questions you may have.

[JohnAV]

Add another now

AMC, Regal Ban Universal Movies From Their Theaters After Studio Throws Rock at Theatrical Window - Indiewire- 4/29/2020

Update April 29: Regal Entertainment owner Cineworld Group, the world’s second-biggest circuit, is following in AMC’s footsteps. “Today we make it clear again that we will not be showing movies that fail to respect the windows as it does not make any economic sense for us,” the company wrote in a statement.

The statement recounts a conversation Cineworld CEO Mooky Greidinger had with Brian Roberts, the chairman of Universal parent Comcast, on March 19.

“All our partners called us in timely manner and told us that in the current situation they want to shorten window for movies that were already released as cinemas are closing, most importantly, they all reassured us that there will be no change to their window policy once the cinema business returned,” Greidinger said to Roberts. “Unfortunately I missed similar message in Universal’s announcement … not only did Universal provide no commitment for the future window — but Universal was the only studio that tried to take advantage of the current crisis and provide a ‘day-and-date’ release of a movie that was not yet released.”

That last line say it all. They are very worried, but making it tied to this Troll movie is just odd. Anyone here find that this is a must see? Its for kids.

[JohnAV]

Helpful article
‘Trolls’ went straight to homes. Movie theaters are fuming. - The Republic 4/28/2020

As innocuous as the rainbow-colored, music-blaring animated movie may seem, the digital release of the “Trolls” sequel has caused a storm to course through the movie industry. Just as the pandemic worsened and movie theaters were shuttering, Universal Pictures shifted the film’s release to video on demand, leading a charge straight through the theatrical window.

Universal calls the “Trolls World Tour” digital release a success and suggests it may be the beginning of a sea change in how movies are released. Theater owners strenuously disagree. AMC Theaters, the largest chain in the United States, is signaling an all-out war, saying it will no longer show Universal movies.

So is this AMC over reacting?

On Tuesday, NBCUniversal CEO Jeff Shell told The Wall Street Journal that the digital release for “Trolls World Tour” has gone well enough to demonstrate the viability of direct-to-home releases. He promised that even once theaters reopen, “We expect to release movies on both formats.”

The Journal reported that in three weeks of $20 on-demand rentals, “Trolls World Tour” has grossed about $95 million. The studio, which normally splits sales approximately in half with theaters, pocketed about $75 million of that. A spokesman for Universal did not dispute those figures.

By comparison, 2016’s “Trolls” grossed $116 million in U.S. and Canada and $346.9 million worldwide. The sequel cost a reported $90 million to produce, not including marketing costs that likely exceeded $50 million.

Whether that performance constitutes a “hit” or merely an intriguing pandemic-era experiment has been the subject of much debate. Under stay at home orders, the country’s moviegoers are on lockdown. “Trolls World Tour” benefited by being the first such release during the crisis. And even in those extreme circumstances, it’s made significantly less than the original film did. The rentals may have also eaten into other “downstream” home entertainment revenue sources.

I am still wonder if AMC is the boy that cried wolf after reading that?

“Universal does not have reason to use unusual circumstances in an unprecedented environment as a springboard to bypass true theatrical releases,” said John Fithian, president and chief executive of the National Association of Theatre Owners. He touted the irreplaceable “beloved immersive, shared experience” of seeing a film in a theater, adding that many families would have flocked to “Trolls” if “the world had not been sequestered at home.”

So theater chains are now dictating what is allowed, I wonder?

[JohnAV]

Bloomberg reports the following

Universal isn’t the only studio testing its strategy during the shutdown. Walt Disney Co. is releasing a new movie on its Disney+ streaming service, and John Stankey, the incoming CEO of Warner Bros.’ parent, AT&T Inc., said he is rethinking the theatrical relationship because of coronavirus. Warner Bros. also plans to release its kids film “Scoob!” for on-demand home viewing, rather than in theaters.

So if all of this concerns a few studios releasing kid movies via streaming during the pandemic, isn't the public going to look at this as a example of selfishness?

Go look at who owns AMC BTW,

AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc., the largest U.S. cinema chain and a subsidiary of Chinese billionaire Wang Jianlin’s Dalian Wanda Group Co.

[bhampton]

Originally Posted by Ender14

You would be fine if all movie theaters went out of business? It wouldn't bother you to never have the theatrical experience again? If so, why is that? I know some people who have that attitude and I'm curious as to the reason.

I would. I know that is completely the opposite of your position but there's reasons for my position.

I have loved movies all my life and used to go to theater quite a lot.

There are ZERO good theaters near me. none I kid you not. My home theater has raised seats for the second row but every theater near me has flat floor and puts the screen up very high so everyone can see.

The closest theater to me has several screens (of it's 6) that have visible damage sometimes near the center of the screen. Often the film isn't zoomed correctly and you can see parts of the picture on the curtains or it's window boxed on all sides.

I'm older now living in the country so I don't really have much use for going to theaters. I have a great home theater and often host movies at my house for others and that's where it's at for me.

I don't have friends to go to movies with, it costs more than buying the film.... There's just a lot of reasons you are I are at polar opposites here.

Honestly if "real" theaters went away I wouldn't mind at all.

I think the last time I went to a theater was for "The Meg" but only because my neighbor was excited to see it when it came out.


-Brian

[cheez avenger]

Well, to be fair - the bread and butter of movie theaters in general has always been the revenue generated by selling severely overpriced concessions. Especially during opening weekend, when theaters get 10% of ticket sales - 90% goes to the studios opening weekend. That split shifts a bit as the film continues to play, but it's all about selling fat and sugar at high ass prices. Why do you think AMC and Regal have done this? They're confident that they can sell the same amount of over priced concessions no matter what plays in their theaters.

[Ender14]

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

I reread my post and fail to see the draconian measures that you are asking me. I won't get into a pissing match with you. That will accomplish nothing.

Now . . . if you wish to either make another post or edit this one, being less hostile and adversarial, I might respond with answers to questions you may have.

Nothing about my post was meant to be hostile or adversarial, so I'm sorry if it came across that way. Your previous posts seem to be against AMC and I was genuinely curious what the reasoning is behind people who don't like movie theaters. If you don't feel that way then I apologize for misinterpreting.

[Ender14]

Originally Posted by bhampton

I would. I know that is completely the opposite of your position but there's reasons for my position.

I have loved movies all my life and used to go to theater quite a lot.

There are ZERO good theaters near me. none I kid you not. My home theater has raised seats for the second row but every theater near me has flat floor and puts the screen up very high so everyone can see.

The closest theater to me has several screens (of it's 6) that have visible damage sometimes near the center of the screen. Often the film isn't zoomed correctly and you can see parts of the picture on the curtains or it's window boxed on all sides.

I'm older now living in the country so I don't really have much use for going to theaters. I have a great home theater and often host movies at my house for others and that's where it's at for me.

I don't have friends to go to movies with, it costs more than buying the film.... There's just a lot of reasons you are I are at polar opposites here.

Honestly if "real" theaters went away I wouldn't mind at all.

I think the last time I went to a theater was for "The Meg" but only because my neighbor was excited to see it when it came out.


-Brian

I can somewhat see that if all of the theaters near you are bad. The one closest to me has issues from time to time but I'm fortunate that I am within 30 minutes to an hour of some great theaters with IMAX and Dolby Cinema. But if my only options were what you describe I might feel differently.

[Ender14]

Originally Posted by JohnAV

Add another now

AMC, Regal Ban Universal Movies From Their Theaters After Studio Throws Rock at Theatrical Window - Indiewire- 4/29/2020



That last line say it all. They are very worried, but making it tied to this Troll movie is just odd. Anyone here find that this is a must see? Its for kids.

Interesting since that is what I suggested above. If other chains follow suit it will force the studios to re-examine this policy.

[Vilya]

While I do not go the theater as often as I would like, I would miss them if they were gone.

The studios pull in a lot of money at the box office and I would think that they would miss that income badly if the theater distribution model collapsed. I have a hard time believing that video on demand rentals can replace those often lucrative box office receipts under normal circumstances.

So long as I can continue to buy what I want on disc I will not concern myself overly much with this little lover's quarrel between theaters and studios. I tend to think that they are both trying to take advantage of this pandemic situation and that they are just jockeying for a better position in the post pandemic landscape.

[gotmule]

Originally Posted by bhampton

I would. I know that is completely the opposite of your position but there's reasons for my position.

I have loved movies all my life and used to go to theater quite a lot.

There are ZERO good theaters near me. none I kid you not. My home theater has raised seats for the second row but every theater near me has flat floor and puts the screen up very high so everyone can see.

The closest theater to me has several screens (of it's 6) that have visible damage sometimes near the center of the screen. Often the film isn't zoomed correctly and you can see parts of the picture on the curtains or it's window boxed on all sides.

I'm older now living in the country so I don't really have much use for going to theaters. I have a great home theater and often host movies at my house for others and that's where it's at for me.

I don't have friends to go to movies with, it costs more than buying the film.... There's just a lot of reasons you are I are at polar opposites here.

Honestly if "real" theaters went away I wouldn't mind at all.

I think the last time I went to a theater was for "The Meg" but only because my neighbor was excited to see it when it came out.


-Brian

Even though I have not walked into a theater in 8 years, I still want them to survive and to even flourish coming out of this mess. I think there would be too much of an impact to what we would see produced by the studios and ultimately find its way to disc if theaters went away.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by bhampton

I would. I know that is completely the opposite of your position but there's reasons for my position.

I have loved movies all my life and used to go to theater quite a lot.

There are ZERO good theaters near me. none I kid you not. My home theater has raised seats for the second row but every theater near me has flat floor and puts the screen up very high so everyone can see.

The closest theater to me has several screens (of it's 6) that have visible damage sometimes near the center of the screen. Often the film isn't zoomed correctly and you can see parts of the picture on the curtains or it's window boxed on all sides.

I'm older now living in the country so I don't really have much use for going to theaters. I have a great home theater and often host movies at my house for others and that's where it's at for me.

I don't have friends to go to movies with, it costs more than buying the film.... There's just a lot of reasons you are I are at polar opposites here.

Honestly if "real" theaters went away I wouldn't mind at all.

I think the last time I went to a theater was for "The Meg" but only because my neighbor was excited to see it when it came out.


-Brian

I sometimes can’t believe what I am reading. If you are a film lover, why would you not care about the cinema going away? There are major consequences if this happens. For a start, we wouldn’t see the huge budget blockbusters very often, if at all. They could well die out. Making $100 million is no comparison to making $400-$500 million at the cinema. Even more in many cases. Also, the likes of Disney are not going to be chucking hundreds of millions at their Disney+ Content if they lose the theatrical income. We would probably see a steady decrease in blockbusters across all studios as they wouldn’t be able to make that money back.
I suspect films would become tv series which is to say, films would be much rarer in general. Studios would also take far less risks (they dion't exactly make tons now).

Make no mistake, no cinema would lead to a very grim future for every single film lover in this forum.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by gotmule

Even though I have not walked into a theater in 8 years, I still want them to survive and to even flourish coming out of this mess. I think there would be too much of an impact to what we would see produced by the studios and ultimately find its way to disc if theaters went away.

Exactly this. Huge impact.

[Lee A Stewart]

Originally Posted by Ender14

Nothing about my post was meant to be hostile or adversarial, so I'm sorry if it came across that way. Your previous posts seem to be against AMC and I was genuinely curious what the reasoning is behind people who don't like movie theaters. If you don't feel that way then I apologize for misinterpreting.

Thank you

I am not against AMC per se. I just feel that AMC and NATO are overreacting. It's obvious where they stand on PVOD. Talk about draconian measures. Yes the studios want a shorter release window. No the theaters don't want that. As was mentioned they get paid on a sliding %. The longer a movie stays in theaters the more money they make.

"Desperate times call for desperate measures." Studios have movies "in the can" and would like to make use of them. While theaters remain closed IMO they have every right to explore PVOD. It's not competition against the theaters nor are they taking money away from them - they are closed. So why the extremely harsh pushback? I've learned through 45 years in business that people are agreeable when both parties have a mutually beneficial relationship. And they get angry when relationships go one sided and they are the loser. Sometimes you can tell them you will make it up to them on the next deal while other times you have to explain to them why you threw them under the bus.

Let's take Disney as a hypothetical example. The have 50 million paid subscribers to Disney+. Each pays $6.99 per month. Rounded off that generates $350 million . . . per month. $4.2 billion a year.

Why don't people like movie theaters? Some are not comfortable sitting next to strangers for 2 hours. Many find it offensive that people are using their cellphones while the movie is playing. People hate it when moviegoers have conversations during the movie. And some don't like all the ads that play before the movie starts - they see enough ads at home. Who gets that ad revenue? The theaters. Do they share it with the studios? Not as far as I know.

So what will be the new norm dealing with COVID-19 when it comes to movie theaters? Unknown because so far none have reopened and are showing movies.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by Vilya

While I do not go the theater as often as I would like, I would miss them if they were gone.

The studios pull in a lot of money at the box office and I would think that they would miss that income badly if the theater distribution model collapsed. I have a hard time believing that video on demand rentals can replace those often lucrative box office receipts under normal circumstances.

So long as I can continue to buy what I want on disc I will not concern myself overly much with this little lover's quarrel between theaters and studios. I tend to think that they are both trying to take advantage of this pandemic situation and that they are just jockeying for a better position in the post pandemic landscape.

As much as I fear the consequences of such a move, I tend to think you are right about their jockeying for position.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

Thank you

I am not against AMC per se. I just feel that AMC and NATO are overreacting. It's obvious where they stand on PVOD. Talk about draconian measures. Yes the studios want a shorter release window. No the theaters don't want that. As was mentioned they get paid on a sliding %. The longer a movie stays in theaters the more money they make.

"Desperate times call for desperate measures." Studios have movies "in the can" and would like to make use of them. While theaters remain closed IMO they have every right to explore PVOD. It's not competition against the theaters nor are they taking money away from them - they are closed. So why the extremely harsh pushback? I've learned through 45 years in business that people are agreeable when both parties have a mutually beneficial relationship. And they get angry when relationships go one sided and they are the loser. Sometimes you can tell them you will make it up to them on the next deal while other times you have to explain to them why you threw them under the bus.

Let's take Disney as a hypothetical example. The have 50 million paid subscribers to Disney+. Each pays $6.99 per month. Rounded off that generates $350 million . . . per month. $4.2 billion a year.

Why don't people like movie theaters? Some are not comfortable sitting next to strangers for 2 hours. Many find it offensive that people are using their cellphones while the movie is playing. People hate it when moviegoers have conversations during the movie. And some don't like all the ads that play before the movie starts - they see enough ads at home. Who gets that ad revenue? The theaters. Do they share it with the studios? Not as far as I know.

So what will be the new norm dealing with COVID-19 when it comes to movie theaters? Unknown because so far none have reopened and are showing movies.

Why do you think Disney+ can plough hundreds of millions into their subscription streaming service? They dominated the box office for the last several years. Trust me, it would look very different if the cinema went away. The content wouldn’t be as appealing to all the subscribers for a start.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by Ender14

Hope you feel better.

It lifted with some tablets, cheers.

[JohnAV]

Breakingviews - U.S. moviegoers will never again fill theaters - Reuters

NEW YORK (Reuters Breakingviews) - Dark movie theaters may just be a taste of the near future. Even before Covid-19 completely shut down projectors at venues offered by the likes of AMC Entertainment, attendance was in decline and streaming services like Netflix on the rise. AMC is fighting back, but the notion that America’s cinemas will fill up again may be as quaint as a silent film.

With everyone stuck at home, Hollywood has time to figure out more ways to cut out the exhibitors. Comcast’s NBC Universal released “Trolls World Tour” on April 10 directly to people’s homes and made several other movies already showing on big screens available to rent for $20.

There are incentives to wiggle around theaters. In general box-office ticket sales are split 50-50 between exhibitors and studios. With streaming services like Netflix or Amazon.com or through traditional cable, studios keep about 80% of the take.

The “Trolls” sequel broke first-day and opening-weekend records for Universal’s home-entertainment unit, racking up some 10 times the previous record receipts for a digital release. It has now brought in nearly $100 million in rentals, the Wall Street Journal reported this week. In terms of revenue for Comcast, that makes it more lucrative than the original’s $154 million in gross domestic U.S. box-office receipts to date.

Netflix has changed the game too. The firm led by Reed Hastings mostly bypasses theaters for its original movies, instead choosing to use releases like “Roma” as a way to hook potential subscribers. Lockdown has accelerated the company’s subscriber growth. Many of the largest studios’ parent companies, notably Walt Disney, Comcast and AT&T, now have streaming services. Disney pushed its upcoming flick “Artemis Fowl” to its online Disney+ platform for a June release rather than wait until theaters reopen.

The number of Americans trekking to box offices is in long-term decline from a peak in 2002 with 1.6 billion tickets sold. From lockdown AMC, which bills itself as the largest exhibitor in America, Europe and the world, is resisting: On Tuesday it said it would boycott Universal’s films in light of the studio parent’s comments about digital releases. AMC’s stock jumped more than 20% the next day, but its market value is still only about a quarter of the $2 billion it was worth shortly after going public in 2013. The fresh damage from the pandemic may never be reversed.

Note AMC Cinema stock 12/23/16 was $35.20, recently it was $5.19, during the covid-19 stock market dip the low was $2.08 on 4/13.

I still think theater chains can do well, but this is a interesting topic, so just dropping newsbytes of various opinions.