Physical & Digital EST: The Future of Home Video Discussion Thread

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by flyry

I am not. the movie theater is my sanctuary, but I am not going to ignore the writing on the wall like a certain crowd.



I never said purchases and rentals are the same thing, i said Universal was being odd. they make funny decisions at that studio like releasing a hit movie on blu-ray..and then UHD a few months later to get people to double dip.. just like they wanted people to rent Trolls multiple times.

You don't think those same families that rented Trolls for 48 hours for $19.99 would have bought it if they had a purchased option like say the WB PVOD titles? cmon..

and to make matters worse, for example The Invisible Man is hitting digital to buy for $14.99, even cheaper than the rental price.

and yes people may have waited for Onward as they announced it was hitting D+ a week after digital, but the "cost conscious consumer" should realize that $20 once is cheaper than $7.99 in perpetuity. But i digress.

The point being that the greater value lies in that $7.99 monthly subscription fee, which grants access to most of the Disney catalog, not just one movie. People can add and cancel these services at will, so the "perpetuity" part lasts only as long as the consumer sees value in paying it.

The pandemic has certainly boosted digital sales in the short term, but I am not convinced that such behavior will endure past the pandemic; these options are nothing new after all.

Since 2011, purchases of content overall, all formats combined, have declined every single year. The amount spent on purchases overall is 38.2% less than what was spent on them in 2011.

https://www.degonline.org/portfolio_...inment-report/

https://www.degonline.org/portfolio_...ment-report-2/

The only strong sustained double digit growth has been with subscription streaming; that is why everyone and their dog is launching their own such service rather than opening more digital store fronts. Digital sales are as much of a niche as are discs compared to the public's clear preference for all you can eat subscription streaming services.

$14.99 may buy a digital copy of The Invisible Man or for the same amount of money a financially strapped family could spend it on nearly two months of Disney+; which is the better value?

Pandemic anomalies aside, people are buying less and renting more and they mostly rent in the form of subscription streaming.

[sapiendut]

Originally Posted by flyry

I am not. the movie theater is my sanctuary, but I am not going to ignore the writing on the wall like a certain crowd.

Like I said, your crowd loves conjuncture and assumptions.

[flyry]

Originally Posted by sapiendut

Like I said, your crowd loves conjuncture and assumptions.

as the longwinded post above you assumes that the current pandemic behavior will not continue. the irony is too much.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by flyry

as the longwinded post above you assumes that the current pandemic behavior will not continue. the irony is too much.

That "long winded post" contains actual financial data, not just the mere conjecture of an angry bitter man. Why are you passive aggressively insulting everyone today? People who offer different viewpoints have been labelled as being an "ass", as "morons", as "assinine", and now "long winded" by you in a short span of time. No one else is hurling insults; why are you?

The unusual consumer spending behavior during this pandemic is not likely to continue because the pandemic will eventually end and life will return to normal along with their normal pre-pandemic behaviors. History has shown time and again that after periods of great turmoil that people resume doing what they enjoy.

I do not believe that this pandemic will permanently reverse a nine year decline in the purchases of movies.

[Vilya]

Here is the first quarter report for 2020:



https://www.degonline.org/portfolio_...inment-report/

For the first time, digital sales have exceeded those of disc, $749.43 million versus $637.78 million. Even so, combined sales were $1.38721 billion and that is still a decline in overall purchases of 6.76% compared to the first quarter of 2019. Less money is being spent on purchases as has been the trend since 2011.

Subscription steaming, though, is up 27.06% bringing in $4.55637 billion. Subscription streaming generated 3.28 times more money than did all purchases combined, which is another long standing trend.

[Wendell R. Breland]

Originally Posted by PenguinInfinity

The dominant form of home entertainment has always been subscriptions. Cable and satellite are still the most popular and most profitable form of subscriptions (by far) but digital subscriptions are increasing in popularity.

Agreed. Vilya and myself have made similar post here with links to references.

Cable and satellite subs have been shrinking while SVOD has grown but it all still remains pay TV.

[Wendell R. Breland]

In the disc war days the HD DVD crowd would have labeled EST as having a piss poor attach rate (sales vs streaming devices).

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by flyry

as the longwinded post above you assumes that the current pandemic behavior will not continue. the irony is too much.

You think people are going to remain scared for the rest of their lives and not visit cinemas, theatre, football, baseball, shopping centres, restaurants, concerts etc..?

Once we have a vaccine, it’s over to all Intents and purposes.

[Vilya]

It is time to resume my PBS American History documentary marathon. I've got 9.5 hours of the American Revolution and its companion piece, a Benjamin Franklin biography, to watch. All on glorious DVD, but most PBS documentaries on DVD look pretty decent upscaled.

Enjoy whatever you choose to watch tonight; time to go get me some TV edumacation.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by Vilya

It is time to resume my PBS American History documentary marathon. I've got 9.5 hours of the American Revolution and its companion piece, a Benjamin Franklin biography, to watch. All on glorious DVD, but most PBS documentaries on DVD look pretty decent upscaled.

Enjoy whatever you choose to watch tonight; time to go get me some TV edumacation.

It is night where I am, just watched One Deadly Summer on Blu-ray. Quite a good French film from 1983.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

It is night where I am, just watched One Deadly Summer on Blu-ray. Quite a good French film from 1983.

I looked at some screenshots from it; I think I can readily see what you liked about it.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by Vilya

I looked at some screenshots from it; I think I can readily see what you liked about it.

Well, it’s French! They are quite body confident.

Seriously though, it doesn’t play out as you would expect. I liked it.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by bhampton

Sadly, it's hard to imagine a future for movie theaters of yesteryear.

But,.. we are in it and won't know the outcomes for some time.

Will they evolve with the times? absolutely. There was a time when a theater meant a single screen and live music, when I was a kid most theatres had 2-3 screens and a machine or two in the corner of the lobby (pinball or videogame), today, at least here, they tend to have over a dozen screens,"amusement parks",reception rooms, catered events, some fancier seating for a premium price, some have booze and meals.... so evolving is nothing new for the industry.

I think short term it will be tough, just like many other industries, but eventually it will bounce back, people that like to go to cinemas will go back once they are allowed and they feel comfortable to do so.

with people working from home my GF's boss has update meetings with everyone every Friday at 11:30. This Friday when we sat down for lunch she said he asked people to think about and tell him their summer vacations dates even if the plan is staying at home and relaxing. One of the guys in the meeting immediately said something like "I will let you know when we are allowed to fly again." and that is a lot worst then going to the cinema.

[Anthony P]

Originally Posted by Vilya

Bio weapons date back to medieval times when besieging forces would catapult diseased corpses over city and fortress walls in the hopes of infecting those within. This was an obvious tactic and people largely knew to avoid these diseased missiles.

longer then that, and possibly for ever https://c.aarc.org/resources/biological/history.asp

but honestly I have no idea what it has to do with anything being discussed here.

Life returned to normal after the far deadlier 1918 pandemic and it will return to normal after Covid-19. It may take awhile, but people are resilient and they will resume doing all of the things that they enjoy just as they did way back then.

shouldn't we wait until all is said and done before comparing the two. There is also the fact that we are no where near having an accurate count. Here in Quebec, natural deaths for people that were not tested for Covid-19 were up 21% last month compared to normal, some of them are probably legit (people shutting themselves at home, postponement of "elective" treatments that should not have been, people worried about going to the doctors/ER that should have gone... ) But 21%. that seems like an incredible jump in numbers from normal. My guess since Quebec only counts people previously tested for Covid-19 and that die of respiratory problems as Covid-19 deaths, My guess is a lot of those people in that 21% increase are actually covid-19 deaths. Belgium did exactly that and started looking into "natural deaths" and started (according to them) a more honest count.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

longer then that, and possibly for ever https://c.aarc.org/resources/biological/history.asp

but honestly I have no idea what it has to do with anything being discussed here.



shouldn't we wait until all is said and done before comparing the two. There is also the fact that we are no where near having an accurate count. Here in Quebec, natural deaths for people that were not tested for Covid-19 were up 21% last month compared to normal, some of them are probably legit (people shutting themselves at home, postponement of "elective" treatments that should not have been, people worried about going to the doctors/ER that should have gone... ) But 21%. that seems like an incredible jump in numbers from normal. My guess since Quebec only counts people previously tested for Covid-19 and that die of respiratory problems as Covid-19 deaths, My guess is a lot of those people in that 21% increase are actually covid-19 deaths. Belgium did exactly that and started looking into "natural deaths" and started (according to them) a more honest count.

I should have said ancient times; the whole bio weapon topic was just one of those little sidetrack discussions. I was replying to a member who had mentioned the subject.

The current pandemic's final tally is certainly far from being known, but as it stands now it is nowhere even close to being as deadly as was the 1918 pandemic.

According to the Centers For Disease Control, the 1918 pandemic killed "at least" 50 million people globally and 675,000 in the U.S. alone. In a single month, October of 1918, 195,000 Americans died. Some believe that the global death toll could have been as high as 100 million. Consider also that the population of the world at the start of 1918 was 1.9 billion. For comparison purposes, I will stick with the more conservative figure of 50 million deaths.

Another key difference was that the pandemic of 1918 often killed people in the prime of life, between the ages of 20-30. It was widely noted at the time just how fast it killed, too. People would show symptoms at breakfast and be dead by dinnertime. Doctors at the time would complain that their patients would die within 12 hours of first having seen them.

According to John Hopkins University, the current pandemic has killed 281,287 people worldwide with 79,180 of those deaths having occurred here in the U.S. 281,287 deaths now compared to the 50 million deaths in the 1918 pandemic. Even if you allow for a 1000% increase in the current figures, 3.094 million, that would only be 6.2% of the death toll from the 1918 pandemic. The current pandemic would have to see a 17,465.4% increase in deaths just to tie how many died from the 1918 pandemic.

At the moment, we have 281,287 global deaths out of world population of 7.8 billion people. In 1918 they had 50 million pandemic deaths out of a world population of 1.9 billion.

The people of 1918 had two simultaneous global catastrophes to contend with: the pandemic and World War 1. Both came to an end and people eventually resumed the enjoyment of their favorite pastimes.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-res...emic-h1n1.html

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

[alchav21]

What will be the "New Normal," I never liked standing in lines or being in a crowd. When I did go to Theaters, I would go to matinees and sit on the end of the row with lots of room around me. Recently I was going to those Theaters with the nice big reclining lounge chairs. So I can see this as the "New Normal," then with sporting events too....Space it Out!

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by alchav21

What will be the "New Normal," I never liked standing in lines or being in a crowd. When I did go to Theaters, I would go to matinees and sit on the end of the row with lots of room around me. Recently I was going to those Theaters with the nice big reclining lounge chairs. So I can see this as the "New Normal," then with sporting events too....Space it Out!

Well, one thing that we both have in common is that we both use the internet to obtain much of our entertainment. You use it to stream and I use it to shop online for discs both of which allow for plenty of social distancing.

Still, people won't be scared forever and nor should they be. Living in perpetual fear is no way to live at all, in my opinion. People will return to the activities that they enjoy from attending concerts, plays, sporting events, and even the cinema. They'll fly again, too, packed in like sardines for their several hours long flights.

[Vilya]

Here is something to ponder as well: The U.S. population is just 4.25% of the global population.

The U.S. has 32.4% of the Covid-19 cases in the world; 1,320,362 cases out of the world's 4,077,594 cases.

The U.S. also has 28.15% of the total deaths; 79,180 U.S. deaths out of the global total of 281,287 deaths.

The U.S. has 4.25% of the world's population, but we also have 32.4% of the world's cases and 28.15% of the world's fatalities.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

[JohnAV]

You know discussing this will turn political if you start specifically quoting stats for countries. If you want to point out the this represents the best time to pitch exposure to online entertainment as well as alternates that’s a better discussion.

Peacock's Launch Exceeded Comcast's Expectations

Before investors get too excited thinking Peacock is the next Disney+, there are a few points of caution. First of all, Peacock launched amid a boom in streaming video demand. Second, Comcast's expectations were very low. And finally, management gave no plans to move up the broader launch date (still scheduled for July) despite the successful soft-launch

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by Vilya

Well, one thing that we both have in common is that we both use the internet to obtain much of our entertainment. You use it to stream and I use it to shop online for discs both of which allow for plenty of social distancing.

Still, people won't be scared forever and nor should they be. Living in perpetual fear is no way to live at all, in my opinion. People will return to the activities that they enjoy from attending concerts, plays, sporting events, and even the cinema. They'll fly again, too, packed in like sardines for their several hours long flights.

The massive irony being I have feared and predicted the death of cinema for a while but I’m extremely calm about this virus. I think it’s because I dare not think of the consequences too much.