81:19 Nielsen/VideoScan Weekly Sales Numbers

[sj001]

What came out again on the 54:46 week? I don't anything major at all... the only one that really could sell that well was Underworld, but that was not day & date, they were all catalog titles. Knocked Up did $150+ million in the theaters, that's almost 1/2 of Transformers right there... so I am actually impressed by Blu-ray, they still were able to pull it off. Next week and the week after will be a big shift methinks.

[mdm1699]

Originally Posted by Blu-Ray Buckeye

The Cold War is still here. Listen to Putin speak and that's obvious.

Well if you run around kicking a sleeping bear, it will eventually bite back. I think the saudis and their funding of terrorism is more of a threat. Anyway, back to blus. I represent the people in the background. All the gloom and uncertainty is a huge negative to those on the sideline. This war is like a marriage. Blu is the woman who does a lot right and never brags or complains. She gets little or no credit. HD-DVD is the man. He does ONE OR TWO FREAKING things right and it is all over CNN. The woman always wins. SORRY. lmao.

[sj001]

I stand corrected on Knocked Up, it totalled over $200 million dollars! That's almost 2/3 of Transformers... so I think we just underestimated this title. Transformers stands at about $315mil, so if you figure there are going to be some NEW titles to fight it the next couple of weeks, and that Blu-ray titles have long legs, I think we stand a chance of squeezing that week out.

[BluOgre]

Originally Posted by sj001

I stand corrected on Knocked Up, it totalled over $200 million dollars! That's almost 2/3 of Transformers... so I think we just underestimated this title. Transformers stands at about $315mil, so if you figure there are going to be some NEW titles to fight it the next couple of weeks, and that Blu-ray titles have long legs, I think we stand a chance of squeezing that week out.

It totaled l believe $140 million, not $200 (in the US that is).

[sj001]

Originally Posted by BluOgre

It totaled l believe $140 million, not $200 (in the US that is).

You're right, my bad, IMDB says about $149 million. But that's still quite a blockbuster for a comedy, and that's almost 1/2 of Transformers.

[Blu-Ray Buckeye]

Originally Posted by The Shrike

Boring. This new cold war doesn't even get capital letters. Once we start full steam on our Chinese rivalry, then I'll give it not only capital letters, but even some nice roman numerals. Oh, and Blu-Rays are cool.

Man are you wrong about that. The reason this one gets capital letters is because now China matters and so does Iran... North Korea... etc. The other big difference is that the rest of the western world is not unified with us like they were when they acknowledged the big bad Soviet Union.

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by phloyd

Holy Sh!t

54:46!

66:34
61:39

Interesting that SI and YTD still did not move.

New releases rule.

I think it is clear now HD DVD will win the Transformer week (and perhaps the next week too). And then Blu-ray's release schedule will kick in.

Let the hand wringing and finger pointing begin.

[The Shrike]

Originally Posted by mdm1699

I represent the people in the background. All the gloom and uncertainty is a huge negative to those on the sideline. This war is like a marriage. Blu is the woman who does a lot right and never brags or complains. She gets little or no credit. HD-DVD is the man. He does ONE OR TWO FREAKING things right and it is all over CNN. The woman always wins. SORRY. lmao.

That is the best analogy ever, and one I totally agree with. I mean only a loser gets the headline "Loser doesn't lose as bad!"

[Terjyn]

I believe that Transformers had an outside chance to knock Blu-Ray down into the 30s. I find it impossible to believe it'll push it down near 30 or into the low 30s.

Given the numbers for this week, and some simple math and some guesswork, Blu-ray sold about 75000 discs for the week (using 20K as the number for Knocked up), and HD-DVD sold about 70000 copies.

If Blu-Ray sold the same number of copies that week, and HD-DVD sold the same number of non-Transformers movies that week, they'd need to sell 117,500 copies of Transformers to just to knock Blu-Ray down to 40%.

I believe Blu-Ray will sell more than week due to its own releases for the week + residuals of things like Fantastic Four and 28 Days Later.

I believe HD-DVD will sell less other titles that week as well.

I won't be surprised if HD wins the week. I don't think it'll be near as big of a margin as some people believe.

54/46 looks close, but it's really not. Blu-Ray outsold HD-DVD by ~17%, in spite of having no releases nearly the level of Knocked Up, and having no titles remotely in the same ball park of KU.

[The Shrike]

Originally Posted by Blu-Ray Buckeye

The other big difference is that the rest of the western world is not unified with us like they were when they acknowledged the big bad Soviet Union.

All the more reason it's boring. Oh, and Blu-Rays are really neat.

[w_tanoto]

i saw somebody write here somewhere that fox titles does not affect this number. Is this fox titles actually count this week?

[WickyWoo]

Please cool the political talk, plenty of places for that

[w_tanoto]

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

New releases rule.

I think it is clear now HD DVD will win the Transformer week (and perhaps the next week too). And then Blu-ray's release schedule will kick in.

Let the hand wringing and finger pointing begin.

I agree HD DVD will win that week.... by seeing this result. but after that, it will begin to make 180 degree turn

[mdm1699]

Originally Posted by Blu-Ray Buckeye

Man are you wrong about that. The reason this one gets capital letters is because now China matters and so does Iran... North Korea... etc. The other big difference is that the rest of the western world is not unified with us like they were when they acknowledged the big bad Soviet Union.

Well we did tell them that they are all terrorists on many axis's of evils. lol. I think we isolated ourselves. People give it a break! Transformers Transformers Transformers Transformers Transformers. I'm not listening, I can't hear you, I'm not listening, I can't hear you, I'm not listening, I can't hear you, I'm not listening, I can't hear you, I'm not listening, I can't hear you. na na na na na naaaaaana.

[Blu-Ray Buckeye]

Originally Posted by Terjyn

I believe that Transformers had an outside chance to knock Blu-Ray down into the 30s. I find it impossible to believe it'll push it down near 30 or into the low 30s.

Given the numbers for this week, and some simple math and some guesswork, Blu-ray sold about 75000 discs for the week (using 20K as the number for Knocked up), and HD-DVD sold about 70000 copies.

If Blu-Ray sold the same number of copies that week, and HD-DVD sold the same number of non-Transformers movies that week, they'd need to sell 117,500 copies of Transformers to just to knock Blu-Ray down to 40%.

I believe Blu-Ray will sell more than week due to its own releases for the week + residuals of things like Fantastic Four and 28 Days Later.

I believe HD-DVD will sell less other titles that week as well.

I won't be surprised if HD wins the week. I don't think it'll be near as big of a margin as some people believe.

54/46 looks close, but it's really not. Blu-Ray outsold HD-DVD by ~17%, in spite of having no releases nearly the level of Knocked Up, and having no titles remotely in the same ball park of KU.

Exactly right, except that you have to adjust the HD-DVD total to ~64k to make the 54/46 math work. Transformers will undermine the sales of remaining HD-DVDs to some extent, it will not move 117k itself and BD will start trending up now that the new releases are finally starting to flow.

My math, starting with your 75k for blu-ray and my adjusted 64k for HD-DVD (15k for KU and 49k for other/runrate), is as follows:

- Assume Transformers does 4X what KU did... 60k itself (still feels excessive by box office metrics which suggest 2X Trans : KU ratio)

- Assume that the Trans cannibalizes some of the other buyers (49k runrate) and knocks 33% of that figure... 33k non-Trans buyers that week

- Assume that the new releases on BD have some carryover and the runrate increases from the 75k today by 25% for ~94k total.

That's 94k BD v 93k HD-DVD. The scenario is not farfetched in the least. On the other hand, getting to 30% BD forces the model to have ludicrous assumptions.

IF BD doesn't see any pickup in sales, and IF Trans sells 117k week 1 (it won't) and IF non-Trans HD-DVD sales are still 49k along w/ 117k Trans... then and only then can I get to 69:31 HD-DVD for that single week.

[JAGUAR1977]

Knocked Up was underestimated because it's a comedy.

This however means Superbad, Simpsons, Rush Hour 3, Ratatouille could be as big as major action flicks.

[Blu-Ray Buckeye]

Originally Posted by The Shrike

All the more reason it's boring. Oh, and Blu-Rays are really neat.

If you don't want to discuss it then don't... I have plenty of blu-ray comments on here too. However being passive aggressive is lame. It's a blu-ray forum... we get it.

[WickyWoo]

The above few posts make sense

Personally I'm calling about 40/60 for that week

[sj001]

Originally Posted by JAGUAR1977

Knocked Up was underestimated because it's a comedy.

This however means Superbad, Simpsons, Rush Hour 3, Ratouille could be as big as major action flicks.

Yes, other than Transformers, and Shrek, and Bourne, they don't seem to have any other strong titles for Q4, unless you want to count Evan Almighty or License to Wed, which both did moderately well.

[mel2]

Knocked up sold roughly 14,000 copies. ouch. FF2 should triple that. look for a severe beating next week with all our new quality releases.