Physical & Digital EST: The Future of Home Video Discussion Thread

[Steedeel]

Netflix now saying one third of their Audience is on mobile!

Are people STILL sure TV sets are sticking around? Give it another generation with the young Millenials households and the tv will be a minority in homes. 10-15 years max I reckon.

[Dynamo of Eternia]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

Netflix now saying one third of their Audience is on mobile!

Are people STILL sure TV sets are sticking around? Give it another generation with the young Millenials households and the tv will be a minority in homes. 10-15 years max I reckon.

Yes, TVs will still be around. Just because people watch some content on their phones or ipads does not mean that they aren't also using TVs.

It's possible that some people what Netflix specifically on their phone a lot while commuting to work (if they take a train or bus), on breaks, or otherwise away from home, etc., but then when they are home they watch TV, possibly through a cable/satellite provider, watch DVDs or Blu-Rays, or split their Netflix watching between home on a TV and mobile.



What is your source for this info? Also, I'm curious about what that specifically means.

When they say 1/3rd of their audience is "on mobile," does that mean that of all cumulative Netflix viewing across all accounts, 1/3rd of that total amount of viewing is done through mobile devices, and they can specifically track that?

Or alternatively, does it just mean that 1/3 of all people who have a Netflix account have a mobile device associated with it, possibly in addition to other devices like a smart TV, game console, or the like?

I have a Netflix account and have it associated with my smart TV, a Blu-Ray player (soon to be two - bought one during black Friday that I haven't opened yet), several game consoles, and even my Nintendo 3DS. I certainly don't make the 3DS my "go to" means of watching Netflix (I've only ever done so once or twice, mainly while away from home, but with wifi access), but it is still a portable device linked to the account.





Also - and I said something similar to this in another thread on this topic with you - keep in mind that mobile could mean an ipad as opposed to a phone.

I know that's still not a huge screen, but for most of my childhood and teenage years, I never had anything larger than a 13 inch CRT TV in my room. At one point when I was 17 and working for a local grocery store, I won a 27" TV through an employee contest (this was back in 1997). If it hadn't been for that, it likely would have been somewhat longer before I had anything larger than 13."

The point is that kids/teens don't always have the biggest TVs in their rooms. And while even a smaller TV may have a bigger screen than an ipad, when taking viewing distance into account, the difference is probably minor. So I can see where ipad viewing would be something that younger people do a lot.

When I do watch Netflix, it's usually on my 64" Plasma. However when I watch Youtube videos, while I can (and occasionally do) watch them on that same TV, I more often than not watch them on my laptop. That's more so because I'm usually watching any number of relatively short, random videos and clicking between them with a mouse and keyboard is just easier IMO.

Just because I do that doesn't mean I want to get rid of my TV.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by Dynamo of Eternia

Yes, TVs will still be around. Just because people watch some content on their phones or ipads does not mean that they aren't also using TVs.

It's possible that some people what Netflix specifically on their phone a lot while commuting to work (if they take a train or bus), on breaks, or otherwise away from home, etc., but then when they are home they watch TV, possibly through a cable/satellite provider, watch DVDs or Blu-Rays, or split their Netflix watching between home on a TV and mobile.



What is your source for this info? Also, I'm curious about what that specifically means.

When they say 1/3rd of their audience is "on mobile," does that mean that of all cumulative Netflix viewing across all accounts, 1/3rd of that total amount of viewing is done through mobile devices, and they can specifically track that?

Or alternatively, does it just mean that 1/3 of all people who have a Netflix account have a mobile device associated with it, possibly in addition to other devices like a smart TV, game console, or the like?

I have a Netflix account and have it associated with my smart TV, a Blu-Ray player (soon to be two - bought one during black Friday that I haven't opened yet), several game consoles, and even my Nintendo 3DS. I certainly don't make the 3DS my "go to" means of watching Netflix (I've only ever done so once or twice, mainly while away from home, but with wifi access), but it is still a portable device linked to the account.





Also - and I said something similar to this in another thread on this topic with you - keep in mind that mobile could mean an ipad as opposed to a phone.

I know that's still not a huge screen, but for most of my childhood and teenage years, I never had anything larger than a 13 inch CRT TV in my room. At one point when I was 17 and working for a local grocery store, I won a 27" TV through an employee contest (this was back in 1997). If it hadn't been for that, it likely would have been somewhat longer before I had anything larger than 13."

The point is that kids/teens don't always have the biggest TVs in their rooms. And while even a smaller TV may have a bigger screen than an ipad, when taking viewing distance into account, the difference is probably minor. So I can see where ipad viewing would be something that younger people do a lot.

When I do watch Netflix, it's usually on my 64" Plasma. However when I watch Youtube videos, while I can (and occasionally do) watch them on that same TV, I more often than not watch them on my laptop. That's more so because I'm usually watching any number of relatively short, random videos and clicking between them with a mouse and keyboard is just easier IMO.

Just because I do that doesn't mean I want to get rid of my TV.

http://www.trustedreviews.com/news/y...ter-here-s-why

Also, read the last couple of paragraphs of this link. Even Hastings thinks we are heading that way.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/...phone-service/

[Steedeel]

See my link a few pages ago about broadband households also.

All the pieces are moving into place and people are burying their head in the sand or worse, speeding up the progress by giving up on discs.

Can we stop the inevitable? Of course not. But some folk think home cinema is here to stay. I say it isn't and like music before it, the move to digital will rip the heart out of home cinema. Sometimes I hate the internet.

[PCFan]

Many people are still buying 40+" TV sets and most people these days are buying a 4k set. Most of those people in the last 4 months are buying a 4k set. This tell's me that most people prefer watching movies on a big screen over a mobile device. I don't see many people browsing in the movie/music sections in stores though. All this tells me that most people prefer streaming and want to watch it on a big screen TV. I hardly see anyone at the 4k movies section but many people are buying 4k TV sets.

[BlakkMajik3000]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

See my link a few pages ago about broadband households also.

All the pieces are moving into place and people are burying their head in the sand or worse, speeding up the progress by giving up on discs.

Can we stop the inevitable? Of course not. But some folk think home cinema is here to stay. I say it isn't and like music before it, the move to digital will rip the heart out of home cinema. Sometimes I hate the internet.

Can you still buy CDs? As I've mentioned before, there was a time when iTunes was going to "kill the CD". Then, Spotify (or insert music streaming subscription service here) was going to kill the CD.

Can you still buy high-end audio equipment? If everyone is just listening on their cheap headphones, surely high-end brands (i.e. Bose) most assuredly are bankrupt by now. What's that? They aren't?

Same will happen with BD/UHD-BD. A certain group wants the best quality available, and there's another group that is fine with streaming quality.

The point is, using the music industry is a bad example of what you think is going to happen with movies, because physical media is still very much alive and well in that space. Even though the "death of physical media", specifically CDs, has been predicted so many times, it has not happened.

[alchav21]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

Netflix now saying one third of their Audience is on mobile!

Are people STILL sure TV sets are sticking around? Give it another generation with the young Millenials households and the tv will be a minority in homes. 10-15 years max I reckon.

Well there is no doubt that people are Cutting the Cord, but this has to do with TV Programming and not Internet Connection. My Sound & Vision Magazine had a good Article on The Connected Home, service calls into TV Cable Operators use to be for TV reception now it's for Internet problems. People want strong, stable, and fast connections throughout the home is becoming less a luxury and more of a necessity. Like I said before, Copper is Obsolete especially Twisted Copper which is Phone Line and DSL. The Land Line is a Dinosaur along with DSL which is provisioned over Twisted Copper providing around 6Mbps. People are dropping their TV Service, but switching over to Streaming from Amazon and Netflix and to Stream UHD a 25+Mbps is needed. So the Big Screen HDTV is not going anywhere, the Home Network just has to be Maximized. A fast Hard Wired connection is needed, even inside the home for a stable, consistent, and reliable signal. Wireless will also be a factor for your Mobile Devices, but not for your main Entertainment Center.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by BlakkMajik3000

Can you still buy CDs? As I've mentioned before, there was a time when iTunes was going to "kill the CD". Then, Spotify (or insert music streaming subscription service here) was going to kill the CD.

Can you still buy high-end audio equipment? If everyone is just listening on their cheap headphones, surely high-end brands (i.e. Bose) most assuredly are bankrupt by now. What's that? They aren't?

Same will happen with BD/UHD-BD. A certain group wants the best quality available, and there's another group that is fine with streaming quality.

The point is, using the music industry is a bad example of what you think is going to happen with movies, because physical media is still very much alive and well in that space. Even though the "death of physical media", specifically CDs, has been predicted so many times, it has not happened.

Actually, I see many similarities to the music industry. I also think movies will end up being available Spotify style, mostly on mobile devices. Look, there is solid evidence that Millenials households don't have the same attachment to TV sets as the previous generation. In the U.K, Bard (measurement of media use over decades) indicates the number of mobiles only households are increasing.
As I have said before, pay tv and disc will keep tv lovers going but what happens hen the so called digital future kicks in? Mobile will dominate.

Also, yes CDs are here, music systems are here etc.. but they always have that 'hanging on' sense. Hanging on to home cinema is not the future that I crave, and according to many on here that won't happen. I think it will. Again, the amount of people who are jumping from Blu-Ray to streaming tells me the damage is done.

It started with 'I won't give up Blu-Ray quality for convenience'.
Then it was 'well, the quality is not far from Bluray and I don't have the hassle of swapping discs'
Finally, it will be 'well, I can sacrifice the big screen because I have virtually any film available on my phone, any time I wan!' Spotify style.

Mark my words.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by alchav21

Well there is no doubt that people are Cutting the Cord, but this has to do with TV Programming and not Internet Connection. My Sound & Vision Magazine had a good Article on The Connected Home, service calls into TV Cable Operators use to be for TV reception now it's for Internet problems. People want strong, stable, and fast connections throughout the home is becoming less a luxury and more of a necessity. Like I said before, Copper is Obsolete especially Twisted Copper which is Phone Line and DSL. The Land Line is a Dinosaur along with DSL which is provisioned over Twisted Copper providing around 6Mbps. People are dropping their TV Service, but switching over to Streaming from Amazon and Netflix and to Stream UHD a 25+Mbps is needed. So the Big Screen HDTV is not going anywhere, the Home Network just has to be Maximized. A fast Hard Wired connection is needed, even inside the home for a stable, consistent, and reliable signal. Wireless will also be a factor for your Mobile Devices, but not for your main Entertainment Center.

Yes, but that still leaves Netflix, Amazon, Hulu, HBO, BBC etc.. people who are fed up are supposed to be switching to those'. The mainstream don't need fibre, they just need a 'good enough' connection to get HD quality. That's around 2.5Mbps isn't it? 4K is just for the enthusiasts. Regular people don't care. They have proven that by watching SD quality on HD sets for a long time. They will also be happy watching HD on a 4K set. It's only a small group (us enthusiasts who care about 4K)
If you believe the latest predictions, mobile will be the driver for those services and like I mentioned before, zero rated services will hurry that process.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by PCFan

Many people are still buying 40+" TV sets and most people these days are buying a 4k set. Most of those people in the last 4 months are buying a 4k set. This tell's me that most people prefer watching movies on a big screen over a mobile device. I don't see many people browsing in the movie/music sections in stores though. All this tells me that most people prefer streaming and want to watch it on a big screen TV. I hardly see anyone at the 4k movies section but many people are buying 4k TV sets.

67% percent of U.S households apparently have fixed Broadband. 90% have a TV set. make of that what you will.

People always jump to the wrong conclusions though. TV sets are safe for at least ten years. It's after that, that's what worries me. Some folk on here are older gentlemen, (maybe late 50's-late70's) and no offence to them, but they probably don't care what happens 15-20 years into the future. For People Like myself, in my early 40's this horrific mobile future could happen. That's the thing, it's easy to be laid back about it, when you have the mindset that it probably won't affect you much.

[alchav21]

Originally Posted by alchav21

Well there is no doubt that people are Cutting the Cord, but this has to do with TV Programming and not Internet Connection. My Sound & Vision Magazine had a good Article on The Connected Home, service calls into TV Cable Operators use to be for TV reception now it's for Internet problems. People want strong, stable, and fast connections throughout the home is becoming less a luxury and more of a necessity. Like I said before, Copper is Obsolete especially Twisted Copper which is Phone Line and DSL. The Land Line is a Dinosaur along with DSL which is provisioned over Twisted Copper providing around 6Mbps. People are dropping their TV Service, but switching over to Streaming from Amazon and Netflix and to Stream UHD a 25+Mbps is needed. So the Big Screen HDTV is not going anywhere, the Home Network just has to be Maximized. A fast Hard Wired connection is needed, even inside the home for a stable, consistent, and reliable signal. Wireless will also be a factor for your Mobile Devices, but not for your main Entertainment Center.

Originally Posted by Steedeel

Yes, but that still leaves Netflix, Amazon, Hulu, HBO, BBC etc.. people who are fed up are supposed to be switching to those'. The mainstream don't need fibre, they just need a 'good enough' connection to get HD quality. That's around 2.5Mbps isn't it? 4K is just for the enthusiasts. Regular people don't care. They have proven that by watching SD quality on HD sets for a long time. They will also be happy watching HD on a 4K set. It's only a small group (us enthusiasts who care about 4K)
If you believe the latest predictions, mobile will be the driver for those services and like I mentioned before, zero rated services will hurry that process.

I was thinking about what you said, everything going Mobile. I could see some truth in that, but it's all in the hands of the Millennials. They do enjoy and rely on their Mobile Phones, and I see more Apps for these all the time. I think they believe in Convenience, Efficiency, and Cost, so this means doing everything with their Phones. You can Project Video now with your Phone, so I see them going to this more and more. Traditional HDTV's will fade, Manufactures are dropping fast, Mitsubishi doesn't make TV's. Millennials with their Tiny Houses will Project Video with their Phones, but then will want better quality and go to UHD Projectors for their Home Theater.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by alchav21

I was thinking about what you said, everything going Mobile. I could see some truth in that, but it's all in the hands of the Millennials. They do enjoy and rely on their Mobile Phones, and I see more Apps for these all the time. I think they believe in Convenience, Efficiency, and Cost, so this means doing everything with their Phones. You can Project Video now with your Phone, so I see them going to this more and more. Traditional HDTV's will fade, Manufactures are dropping fast, Mitsubishi doesn't make TV's. Millennials with their Tiny Houses will Project Video with their Phones, but then will want better quality and go to UHD Projectors for their Home Theater.

Yep, it's all about time span how. The thing is, a future like that relies entirely on smartphones sticking around. they are now commodities and soon the smartphone market will be replacement one. Wonder where that leaves us with?

Anyway, if discs die in the future we are solely dependant on broadband households not dropping to single digits to carry on the big screen experience in the home. Once they do, you can guarantee we will have a mobile world. That's pretty grim.

[alchav21]

Originally Posted by alchav21

I was thinking about what you said, everything going Mobile. I could see some truth in that, but it's all in the hands of the Millennials. They do enjoy and rely on their Mobile Phones, and I see more Apps for these all the time. I think they believe in Convenience, Efficiency, and Cost, so this means doing everything with their Phones. You can Project Video now with your Phone, so I see them going to this more and more. Traditional HDTV's will fade, Manufactures are dropping fast, Mitsubishi doesn't make TV's. Millennials with their Tiny Houses will Project Video with their Phones, but then will want better quality and go to UHD Projectors for their Home Theater.

Originally Posted by Steedeel

Yep, it's all about time span how. The thing is, a future like that relies entirely on smartphones sticking around. they are now commodities and soon the smartphone market will be replacement one. Wonder where that leaves us with?

Anyway, if discs die in the future we are solely dependant on broadband households not dropping to single digits to carry on the big screen experience in the home. Once they do, you can guarantee we will have a mobile world. That's pretty grim.

Yes, you can bet that The Disc is Dead, that doesn't fit into Millennials Convenience, Efficiency, or Cost. It's going to be a total Digital World, and the quicker the better. They are nostalgic, so fond memories of their Grandparents Home Theater will keep them wanting this in their Homes. The Broadband needs will be a combination of Fixed Fiber and 5g+ Wireless. The UHD TV will keep getting thinner and thinner, wall mount or Projection, but still very much in their needs.

[Fiffy]

Originally Posted by alchav21

I know what you are talking about, but Wireless is Wireless. We were using Fixed as a Hard Wired Connection. Wireless whether Fixed on a rooftop or dependent on a good signal, is not as consistent as Wired.

A well-provisioned fixed wireless connection can absolutely be as consistent as a wired connection. And it will not be damaged if your neighbour forgets to call 811 before digging that hole for the new swimming pool.

[Fiffy]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

Which gets back to my point. Who is going to pay for both when they are currently just using mobile to get online?

Fixed wireless allows for bigger data volumes at lower cost than conventional mobile service.

How does fixed 5g fix that issue? Answer, it doesn't.

What 5G brings to the table is an enormous increase in capacity that will allow for fixed wireless at a large scale. It enables the use of new radio bands, including some frequencies that are not good for regular cellular service due to bad building penetration, but perfect for fixed-wireless with roof- or wall-mounted antennas. It also provides some new techniques such as dynamic beamforming that can create narrow beams that can be easily redirected toward the customer as needed.

My second point, sorry should have been clearer. I meant using a phone as a hotspot in the home. Apparently the main Issues are getting the tv to pick up the signal and then actually playing the content.

"Apparently"? Says who? I have used Airplay from my iPhone many times without issue.

[Fiffy]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

Could you provide evidence if that? Other countries broadband and tv ownership? It may be some countries don't have easy access to digital/streaming services. I know in the U.S it's around 67% of homes who have broadband and according to those figures you linked, 90% are tv households.

For starters, check out this Wikipedia article:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o..._subscriptions

You can find more details and the most recent statistics on the ITU web site:

http://www.itu.int/en/ITU-D/Statisti...t/default.aspx

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by alchav21

Yes, you can bet that The Disc is Dead, that doesn't fit into Millennials Convenience, Efficiency, or Cost. It's going to be a total Digital World, and the quicker the better. They are nostalgic, so fond memories of their Grandparents Home Theater will keep them wanting this in their Homes. The Broadband needs will be a combination of Fixed Fiber and 5g+ Wireless. The UHD TV will keep getting thinner and thinner, wall mount or Projection, but still very much in their needs.

Well, not yet it isn't. You don't remove a crutch if your leg is still broken.

Disc will be fine for a few years. Don't you remember the entire tech world were saying iTunes downloads would replace CD's? Never happened and Now downloads look like they are being replaced by subscription streaming. In the meantime, CD refuses to die.

Your other point about nostalgia? That's clutching at straws IMO.

[Dynamo of Eternia]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

Well, not yet it isn't. You don't remove a crutch if your leg is still broken.

Disc will be fine for a few years. Don't you remember the entire tech world were saying iTunes downloads would replace CD's? Never happened and Now downloads look like they are being replaced by subscription streaming. In the meantime, CD refuses to die.

Your other point about nostalgia? That's clutching at straws IMO.

Well, don't put too much stock in the opinions of a guy who obsessively feels the need to consistently quote his own posts.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by Fiffy

Fixed wireless allows for bigger data volumes at lower cost than conventional mobile service.
What 5G brings to the table is an enormous increase in capacity that will allow for fixed wireless at a large scale. It enables the use of new radio bands, including some frequencies that are not good for regular cellular service due to bad building penetration, but perfect for fixed-wireless with roof- or wall-mounted antennas. It also provides some new techniques such as dynamic beamforming that can create narrow beams that can be easily redirected toward the customer as needed.
"Apparently"? Says who? I have used Airplay from my iPhone many times without issue.

AirPlay relies on WI-FI not mobile data. I am talking about a mobile only household. No broadband.

As for your other points, I respect them. If that's your field, that is your field. Just one question? I thought higher frequencies used in 5g were more susceptible to interference and dropout not less?

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by Dynamo of Eternia

Well, don't put too much stock in the opinions of a guy who obsessively feels the need to consistently quote his own posts.

He is ok! . We probably all annoy the crap out of each other at times.

My problem is I am constantly thinking ahead. The broadband household thing really got to me as it triggered some thoughts I Have had of where all this tech could be going. Unlike many on this forum though, I really really want to be wrong!