Physical & Digital EST: The Future of Home Video Discussion Thread

[Ender14]

Originally Posted by dcx4610

Everyone seems to bring up the fact that physical media is dying in retail stores and that means the end of physical media. Not quite.

One point no one seems to bring up is that home video was never a mainstream/consumer target until really DVD. VHS tapes were $100+ and only sold by distributors and to rental stores. Eventually, you started seeing "specifically marked" VHS tapes being sold to consumers like the Wizard of Oz. Then, rental places started selling used VHS tapes in their stores.

Consumers weren't buying VHS tapes in droves. They were content in renting them. The collectors would buy the tapes used or because they are die hard, would pay the $100 to own the new tape.

Once DVD arrived, discs were so cheap to manufacture and with the help of the success of the PS2, everyone had a DVD player in their home. Retail stores started carrying DVDs and they were successful. Why? It was basically the only option anyone had to see a movie outside of the theater and in some cases, it was cheaper just to buy the DVD instead of renting it.

Now, consumers can just stream things and are no longer forced to buy a physical copy. Only collectors and people passionate about movies want to own them. Nothing has changed there.

We act like we had all of these people watching and collecting physical media and now they aren't. It was one time in the history of home video that this happened and it was only because the mainstream audience had no other choice. It reminds me of when the Nintendo Wii sold 100 million consoles and the Wii U sold 13. We didn't lose 87 million gamers. You simply briefly appealed to people that never cared about video games in the first place and now they've moved on to the next fad.

As for retail, there simply isn't the market or the floor space to maintain the number of releases that come out every week. Despite the brief DVD blip in history, we have always been a niche crowd and it's a gamble to stock a bunch of movies. It makes far more sense for distributors to sell direct to the consumer or if you are someone like Amazon where you have a warehouse, can sell to the entire world and have the space to sit on a stack of some obscure movie and sell them over time.

Case in point, I've heard good things about the movie "It Follows" and want to watch. It came out in 2015 and I checked the usual Target, Best Buy, Walmart and it was no where to be found. I went on Amazon, ordered at 10am and had it on my porch by 3pm. How do you compete with that?

Physical media isn't dying, it's just reverting back to the enthusiast market as it has been for 90% of its history.

I agree with everything you said. I remember I used to drive 45 minutes one way to the only store near me that carried laserdiscs. Everyone I knew had never even heard of laserdiscs prior to meeting me. Streaming is the true DVD replacement medium, not Blu-ray or UHD.

[Lee A Stewart]

Originally Posted by Ender14

I agree with everything you said. I remember I used to drive 45 minutes one way to the only store near me that carried laserdiscs. Everyone I knew had never even heard of laserdiscs prior to meeting me. Streaming is the true DVD replacement medium, not Blu-ray or UHD.

Streaming is the replacement for Pay-TV not physical media. Both BD and UHD-BD are improvements on DVD. They live together, they will die together. Physical media sales have been decreasing long before streaming became the "In Thing."

[Ender14]

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

Streaming is the replacement for Pay-TV not physical media. Both BD and UHD-BD are improvements on DVD. They live together, they will die together. Physical media sales have been decreasing long before streaming became the "In Thing."

I disagree. DVD became the way the general masses accessed media. It just so happened that cinephiles and collectors benefitted from the format as well. But now the masses have abandoned DVD for streaming while collectors moved on to Blu-ray and UHD. The majority never even invested in Blu-ray.

Blu-ray and UHD took the place of DVD only in the sense that it was the next improvement in physical media. Just as laserdisc supplanted VHS for physical media enthusiasts. But most of the general masses never heard of it. DVD just happened to sit in the middle of a Venn diagram that encompassed the general watching audience and collectors.

[Lee A Stewart]

Originally Posted by Ender14

I disagree. DVD became the way the general masses accessed media. It just so happened that cinephiles and collectors benefitted from the format as well. But now the masses have abandoned DVD for streaming while collectors moved on to Blu-ray and UHD. The majority never even invested in Blu-ray.

Have you looked at those two charts I posted above? Your post isn't recognizing them.

Prior to streaming people watched Live TV and Pay-TV. Those are the two markets being hurt by streaming. Physical media has been in a tail spin for a decade now. Buying movies went out of vouge. Simple as that.

Blu-ray and UHD took the place of DVD only in the sense that it was the next improvement in physical media.

Right. Same wine bottles, different wine.

Just as laserdisc supplanted VHS for physical media enthusiasts. But most of the general masses never heard of it.

There were 95 million households that had a VCR. Only 2 million had a Laserdisc player. You couldn't run down to your local Blockbuster and rent a laserdisc. Nor could you time shift/record your favorite TV show on laserdisc.

It was strictly a niche product for those that wanted the very best looking home video and were willing to pay for it. Just like UHD-BD is today.

DVD just happened to sit in the middle of a Venn diagram that encompassed the general watching audience and collectors.

I disagree. DVD was cheap and plentiful. No hassle with renting. So people bought them by the billions. Then they realized they had all these DVDs they had watched once or twice and they took up space. So they stopped buying them. DVD has been the most successful home electronics product ever.

[Ender14]

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

Have you looked at those two charts I posted above? Your post isn't recognizing them.

Prior to streaming people watched Live TV and Pay-TV. Those are the two markets being hurt by streaming. Physical media has been in a tail spin for a decade now. Buying movies went out of vouge. Simple as that.

We are talking about 2 different things. I never used Live or Pay TV as my sole source for movie watching and I very much doubt anyone else did either. That's why video stores were so popular when VHS was released. People didn't have to wait for their favorite movies to come on TV. They could just go rent them. So in the aspect of movie watching, I am correct. Television shows are an altogether different thing from movies. Streaming is supplanting Live TV and Pay TV because of the access to television shows, not movies. I am solely talking about movies.

There were 95 million households that had a VCR. Only 2 million had a Laserdisc player. You couldn't run down to your local Blockbuster and rent a laserdisc. Nor could you time shift/record your favorite TV show on laserdisc.

You are just making my point for me here. The general audience wanted what was cheap and convenient. The same audience that drove DVD sales through the roof because they were cheap and convenient. Once streaming came out it was more cheap and convenient for the masses than DVD they abandoned it. Collectors did not.

It was strictly a niche product for those that wanted the very best looking home video and were willing to pay for it. Just like UHD-BD is today.

Again, making my point for me. UHD's are the new laserdisc. People that want the best and true ownership will choose UHD over streaming. The general masses who don't care that much will just take streaming.

I disagree. DVD was cheap and plentiful. No hassle with renting. So people bought them by the billions. Then they realized they had all these DVDs they had watched once or twice and they took up space. So they stopped buying them. DVD has been the most successful home electronics product ever.

And yet again making the same point I am. People abandoned DVD for streaming to meet their movie needs. Just as I said. It has nothing to do with Live or Pay TV when it comes to how people consume movies.

[Lee A Stewart]

Originally Posted by Ender14

We are talking about 2 different things. I never used Live or Pay TV as my sole source for movie watching and I very much doubt anyone else did either.

That was your choice prior to putting movies out on VHS initially by: Andre Blay's Magnetic Video Corp: 1977

That's why video stores were so popular when VHS was released. People didn't have to wait for their favorite movies to come on TV. They could just go rent them. So in the aspect of movie watching, I am correct.

First you started talking about DVD, now you shifted over to VHS. So which is it?

Television shows are an altogether different thing from movies. Streaming is supplanting Live TV and Pay TV because of the access to television shows, not movies. I am solely talking about movies.

When did they stop showing movies on Live TV and Pay-TV? Ever heard of HBO?

Streaming is killing Live TV and Pay-TV. I could post a hundred articles that point to this very fact.

You are just making my point for me here. The general audience wanted what was cheap and convenient. The same audience that drove DVD sales through the roof because they were cheap and convenient. Once streaming came out it was more cheap and convenient for the masses than DVD they abandoned it. Collectors did not.

Your timeline is off. Physical media sales were dropping drastically BEFORE streaming became commonplace.

It wasn't until July 2014 that Netflix hit 50 million subs. It took them 7 years to do that. It took Disney+ 9 months.

Again, making my point for me. UHD's are the new laserdisc. People that want the best and true ownership will choose UHD over streaming. The general masses who don't care that much will just take streaming.

Yep - we agree - UHD-BD is the new Laserdisc. Niche product for discerning collectors.

Do you believe that people who buy UHD-BDs - that's all they watch? Nothing else? I find that very hard to believe.

And yet again making the same point I am. People abandoned DVD for streaming to meet their movie needs. Just as I said. It has nothing to do with Live or Pay TV when it comes to how people consume movies.

No - I again disagree. They did not abandon DVD for streaming. They simply abandoned physical media period. They became clutter.

And yet EST is thriving. So ownership of movies hasn't really stopped at all. Just buying them on physical media has.

[Vilya]

No purchase method is "thriving."

In 2011, physical media sales and EST sales combined totaled $9.505 billion.

In 2019, physical media sales and EST sales combined totaled $5.876 billion.

Purchases of home video content have dropped 38.18% since 2011.

Yes, physical media sales have been declining since 2011 and EST sales have been growing, but the growth in the latter has not offset the decline in the former. People are not so much switching from one format to the other; they are buying less content no matter how it is offered. How people are choosing to spend their entertainment dollar has fundamentally changed.

The "thriving" is with subscription streaming.

In 2011, subscription streaming made $993.6 million.

In 2019, subscription streaming made $15.898 billion.

Subscription streaming has grown 1501% since 2011.

https://www.degonline.org/portfolio_...inment-report/

https://www.degonline.org/portfolio_...ment-report-2/

As of midyear 2020, purchases of discs and digital combined only reached $2.888 billion while subscription streaming was already at $10.269 billion. If we assume that the 2nd half of 2020 will be comparable to the first, purchases would come in at about $5.776 billion for the year, which is even lower than 2019's figures, while subscription streaming will be about $20.538 billion for the year.

https://www.degonline.org/portfolio_...ment-report-2/

2020 is an odd year, but subscription streaming looks to continue its phenomenal growth while purchases continue to drop. EST is not strong enough to reverse this trend nor are 4K disc sales. People are buying less and subscribing more this year as they have every year since 2011.

[Ender14]

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

That was your choice prior to putting movies out on VHS initially by: Andre Blay's Magnetic Video Corp: 1977



First you started talking about DVD, now you shifted over to VHS. So which is it?



When did they stop showing movies on Live TV and Pay-TV? Ever heard of HBO?

Streaming is killing Live TV and Pay-TV. I could post a hundred articles that point to this very fact.



Your timeline is off. Physical media sales were dropping drastically BEFORE streaming became commonplace.

It wasn't until July 2014 that Netflix hit 50 million subs. It took them 7 years to do that. It took Disney+ 9 months.



Yep - we agree - UHD-BD is the new Laserdisc. Niche product for discerning collectors.

Do you believe that people who buy UHD-BDs - that's all they watch? Nothing else? I find that very hard to believe.



No - I again disagree. They did not abandon DVD for streaming. They simply abandoned physical media period. They became clutter.

And yet EST is thriving. So ownership of movies hasn't really stopped at all. Just buying them on physical media has.

We will just agree to disagree. I've stated many times on here I use streaming services. I have no problem with subscription streaming services. But will only purchase physical versions of movies.

The bottom line is that physical media is not going anywhere for those of us that prefer it. I'm not sure why that bothers you but apparently it does. An embarrassment of riches continue to be released on physical media and based on announcements will continue to be offered for the foreseeable future.

[Lee A Stewart]

Consumers spent more than $1.5 billion on digital entertainment transactions through electronic sell through (EST) and video on demand (VOD) in the second quarter of 2020, an increase of 54% over the same period a year earlier.

DEG said spending increased 57% on EST and 50% on VOD, but the VOD growth statistics don’t account for premium VOD. Several studios experimented with earlier digital sales for theatrical releases while the pandemic caused movie theaters to shut down.

https://www.fiercevideo.com/video/co...irst-half-2020

I'd call that "thriving."

So how did physical media do for the first half of 2020? Down 11.11% for the 2nd quarter and down 17.16% for mid-year

[Lee A Stewart]

Originally Posted by Ender14

We will just agree to disagree. I've stated many times on here I use streaming services. I have no problem with subscription streaming services. But will only purchase physical versions of movies.

The bottom line is that physical media is not going anywhere for those of us that prefer it. I'm not sure why that bothers you but apparently it does. An embarrassment of riches continue to be released on physical media and based on announcements will continue to be offered for the foreseeable future.

It doesn't bother me at all. I too only buy physical media. I have never bought a digital anything ever.

Physical media will continue it's downwards spiral year after year. It is what it is.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

https://www.fiercevideo.com/video/co...irst-half-2020

I'd call that "thriving."

So how did physical media do for the first half of 2020? Down 11.11% for the 2nd quarter and down 17.16% for mid-year

I'd call that a trivial anomaly in a year unlike any other that does nothing to change the fact that people are still buying less content year over year. EST growth is not changing that at all. 4K disc sales are not changing that at all, either. Combined purchases of both formats are still on track to come in slightly lower this year than last.

Subscription streaming and VOD are what are thriving. Combined EST and disc purchases will likely remain well under $6 billion for the year.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

https://www.fiercevideo.com/video/co...irst-half-2020

I'd call that "thriving."

So how did physical media do for the first half of 2020? Down 11.11% for the 2nd quarter and down 17.16% for mid-year

All you are seeing is an anomaly. Why are you pretending that the COVID virus has not played a huge part in all this? There are NO new Blu-ray releases. Blu-ray is a NEW RELEASE format. What did you expect? DVD’s are released for all kinds of speciality and niches. This was always going to be the pattern for the year.

This year is a absolute nonsense. This has been explained to you several times now. Stop trying to make it something it isn’t.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by Vilya

I'd call that a trivial anomaly in a year unlike any other that does nothing to change the fact that people are still buying less content year over year. EST growth is not changing that at all. 4K disc sales are not changing that at all, either. Combined purchases of both formats are still on track to come in slightly lower this year than last.

Subscription streaming and VOD are what are thriving. Combined EST and disc purchases will likely remain well under $6 billion for the year.

Is the obvious and correct answer.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

Is the obvious and correct answer.

2020 by itself is not a good year to base predictions upon as it is not typical in any way at all.

But even with the peculiarities of 2020, combined purchases will likely continue their decade long decline while subscription streaming will continue to see strong growth. VOD's robust growth this year may be a fluke due to this year's hellish circumstances (few new movies combined with closed theaters); I doubt that VOD can sustain these high growth levels in a "normal" year. In 2019, VOD actually contracted 6.19%.

[alchav21]

Originally Posted by Ender14

The bottom line is that physical media is not going anywhere for those of us that prefer it. I'm not sure why that bothers you but apparently it does. An embarrassment of riches continue to be released on physical media and based on announcements will continue to be offered for the foreseeable future.

It doesn't bother us, it's just fact that Physical Media is down and in the past. The Disc Market will remain as long as the Profit Margins are there. You say it's a niche market, but the true Collectors want the very best, and that will be costly. So prices for Physical Media will keep going up, so as long as the Profit outpaces the Cost the Market will continue.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by alchav21

It doesn't bother us, it's just fact that Physical Media is down and in the past. The Disc Market will remain as long as the Profit Margins are there. You say it's a niche market, but the true Collectors want the very best, and that will be costly. So prices for Physical Media will keep going up, so as long as the Profit outpaces the Cost the Market will continue.

Keep going up? Where? I paid roughly the same (£800) that I spend every year on Blu-ray with several 4 k titles.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by alchav21

It doesn't bother us, it's just fact that Physical Media is down and in the past. The Disc Market will remain as long as the Profit Margins are there. You say it's a niche market, but the true Collectors want the very best, and that will be costly. So prices for Physical Media will keep going up, so as long as the Profit outpaces the Cost the Market will continue.

If discs were "in the past" I would not have weekly new releases to choose from. An item being niche does not make it outdated; discs remain the best way to truly own, see, and hear movies and TV shows.

Prices have NOT been going up. You persist in this foolish fiction. Prices are flat to slightly lower varying with the format. Those of us that actually buy discs would be the first to notice, and the most likely to complain, if prices were increasing. As someone on a fixed retirement income, I would notice if discs were costing me more and they are not.

We also all already know that a product needs to be profitable in order for it to continue being offered. Did you move from the state of Utah to the state of Obvious?

[Lee A Stewart]

Originally Posted by Vilya

I'd call that a trivial anomaly in a year unlike any other that does nothing to change the fact that people are still buying less content year over year. EST growth is not changing that at all. 4K disc sales are not changing that at all, either. Combined purchases of both formats are still on track to come in slightly lower this year than last.

Slightly lower? It will be a substantial decrease. Q1 PM sales were already down 22.4%

Subscription streaming and VOD are what are thriving. Combined EST and disc purchases will likely remain well under $6 billion for the year.

I think they will break $6 billion with EST's help. This will be the year that EST outsells PM.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by stonesfan129

The thing that turns me off about "buying" movies the ridiculous DRM. Why not just sell me a disc without the DRM? Or sell me a download that I can play with any software not just the one I have to punch my account information into? That's what is done with music and that industry is not broke. With physical media, it would be nice if I can just order a disc "on demand." Like you buy the disc, they make it and mail it to you rather than just saying it's out of stock, etc.

Like with this Cinavia crapola. I had a disc that got scratched, no longer plays, has Cinavia. You cannot watch a backup copy of it in a Blu-ray player unless you pay for a software that "removes" it which is not legal and not worth the money imo either. But if the software cannot remove it, you are basically screwed and have to buy another disc. All fine and dandy until a disc is OOP and expensive. That is stupid and greed at its finest.

Like it or not, DRM is here to stay. The studios want more control over how we view their content; they will never willingly gives us the freedom that we enjoy with music.

It is also worth pointing out that the average cost to make a movie greatly exceeds that of producing an album.

[Lee A Stewart]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

All you are seeing is an anomaly. Why are you pretending that the COVID virus has not played a huge part in all this? There are NO new Blu-ray releases. Blu-ray is a NEW RELEASE format. What did you expect? DVD’s are released for all kinds of speciality and niches. This was always going to be the pattern for the year.

This year is a absolute nonsense. This has been explained to you several times now. Stop trying to make it something it isn’t.

People are buying more EST. The numbers show that. Are you going to tell me EST doesn't fall pray to the same no blockbuster movie syndrome that BD does?

The only anomaly is that PM will fall further this year then previous years.