Physical & Digital EST: The Future of Home Video Discussion Thread

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

Slightly lower? It will be a substantial decrease. Q1 PM sales were already down 22.4%



I think they will break $6 billion with EST's help. This will be the year that EST outsells PM.

I have been referring to combined purchases all along and this figure is what is on track to be slightly lower this year. The very behavior of purchasing content on any format, physical or digital, has been in decline since 2011. People are buying less and subscribing/renting more; it is that simple.

EST sales overtook physical for the first time in the first quarter of 2020 and it will all but certainly finish the year ahead of physical media, but purchases overall are still dropping. Combined purchases will most likely continue their downward trend this year as they have year since 2011. The purchase model itself is in decline.

[Lee A Stewart]

Originally Posted by Vilya

I have been referring to combined purchases all along and this figure is what is on track to be slightly lower this year. The very behavior of purchasing content on any format, physical or digital, has been in decline since 2011. People are buying less and renting more; it is that simple.

EST sales overtook physical for the first time in the first quarter of 2020 and it will all but certainly finish the year ahead, but so what? Combined purchases will most likely continue their downward trend this year as they have year since 2011. The purchase model itself is in decline.

Renting more? Not discs.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

People are buying more EST. The numbers show that. Are you going to tell me EST doesn't fall pray to the same no blockbuster movie syndrome that BD does?

The only anomaly is that PM will fall further this year then previous years.

Physical media is very dependent on brand new movies coming to home video and there have not been very many of those this year.

Boast about EST all you want; it's higher than normal growth in an unusual year like this one will still not be enough to reverse the decline in total purchases.

Again, combined purchases of all formats has dropped 38.18% since 2011 as compared to 2019. That's because people just simply are not buying as often as they once did no matter the formats available to them.

Subscription streaming, on the other hand, is up 1501% over the same period. That's where your real year over year sustained growth exists.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

Renting more? Not discs.

[Show spoiler]

By renting I was referring to all non-purchases which would include SVOD. SVOD is essentially a recurring rental; you have access so long as you pay the monthly fee. Stop paying and access ends.

[Lee A Stewart]

Originally Posted by Vilya

By renting I was referring to all non-purchases which would include SVOD. SVOD is essentially a recurring rental; you have access so long as you pay the monthly fee. Stop paying and access ends.

SVOD is streaming. Renting is renting and VOD. PVOD is also a rental but it's not shown.

If you are referring to the Mulan PVOD, that hit's Disney+ Dec. 4th as a no charge addition for all Disney+ subs.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

SVOD is streaming. Renting is renting and VOD. PVOD is also a rental but it's not shown.

If you are referring to the Mulan PVOD, that hit's Disney+ Dec. 4th as a no charge addition to all Disney+ subs.

I was tired of typing "subscription streaming" so I just called all non-purchases rentals because essentially that is all that they are; there is no degree of ownership involved with SVOD, VOD, or PVOD.

I edited my post to make what I meant clearer.

People are buying less, no matter the format, and they are subscribing/ renting more. They are not as interested in owning titles as they once were; they are instead increasingly opting for low cost subscription streaming services that offer access to a lot of content for very little money.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

The only anomaly is that PM will fall further this year then previous years.

That is far from the only anomaly. EST's higher than normal growth this year is also an anomaly and so is that of VOD. In 2019, EST only grew by 5.12% while VOD actually declined by 6.19%.

PVOD is a new phenomena, too, and we just don't know how well it will do when things return to normal. When theaters are open again with normal attendance levels will the studios still release their movies via PVOD and at the same time? Will PVOD go head to head with cinemas? Personally, if I am going to spend $20-$30 to see a movie one time, I will want the cinema experience. I recognize that PVOD is a better value for families if the option is offered.

[Lee A Stewart]

Originally Posted by Vilya

I was tired of typing "subscription streaming" so I just called all non-purchases rentals because essentially that is all that they are; there is no degree of ownership involved with SVOD, VOD, or PVOD.

I edited my post to make what I meant clearer.

Guess you can call CBL and SAT non-purchase rentals too right. You are paying for something you don't own.

You are trying IMO to reinvent the wheel. Not necessary. The DEG Reports breakout all the items already. PM sales, PM rentals, EST sales, VOD rentals and SVOD.

People are buying less, no matter the format, and they are subscribing/ renting more. They are not as interested in owning titles as they once were; they are instead increasingly opting for low cost subscription streaming services that offer access to a lot of content for very little money.

Subscribing (SVOD) and renting are two different line items. Best to keep them separate. Just like the DEG does.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

Guess you can call CBL and SAT non-purchase rentals too right. You are paying for something you don't own.

You are trying IMO to reinvent the wheel. Not necessary. The DEG Reports breakout all the items already. PM sales, PM rentals, EST sales, VOD rentals and SVOD.

Subscribing (SVOD) and renting are two different line items. Best to keep them separate. Just like the DEG does.

I edited my post to be clear. I used one term (renting) for all non-purchases for brevity's sake, nothing more.

The point remains that people are buying less content overall as they have every year since 2011. Of those that still do buy content, more are currently buying EST. EST is just a bigger slice of an ever smaller pie where that pie represents all purchases combined.

[JohnAV]

You won’t need Disney Plus to watch Mulan starting next week - The Verge

No one has mentioned being able to rent this.

For anyone who wanted to watch Mulan but didn’t want to sign up for Disney Plus, the movie is heading to Amazon, FandangoNow, Vudu, and other digital retailers on October 6th. The film is currently available to preorder for $29.99.

Disney hasn’t released numbers for Mulan, making it difficult to gauge just how well or how poorly the film performed on Disney Plus. Christine McCarthy, Disney’s chief financial officer, said the company has been “very pleased with what we saw over the four-day weekend” at a recent conference, as reported by Bloomberg, but actual figures will have to wait until Disney’s next earnings call.

What remains clear is Disney, like other studios, is trying to figure out how to work with the unprecedented uncertainty in the filmmaking and distribution markets caused by the pandemic. Warner Bros.’ Tenet saw some decent revenue internationally but failed to perform well within the US due to limited theater openings. And as many locations remain closed in key markets like Los Angeles, New York City, and San Francisco — and with moviegoers hesitant to return to the confines of an indoor theater — trying to figure out alternatives for big-budget projects is a key challenge going forward.

see also Mulan Is Streaming On Other VOD Platforms Next Week - screenrant

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by JohnAV

You won’t need Disney Plus to watch Mulan starting next week - The Verge

No one has mentioned being able to rent this.

Vudu sent me an email today saying that if I pre-order this digital title for purchase, they would give me a whole $3 promo code upon release.

More importantly, Vudu announced that Walmart.com linked payment methods will end on Dec. 31, 2020. I was prompted to add a Vudu payment method. I suspect that this means that I will no longer be able to sign-in with my Walmart login and password.

[Lee A Stewart]

Originally Posted by JohnAV

You won’t need Disney Plus to watch Mulan starting next week - The Verge

No one has mentioned being able to rent this.

Disney Expanding ‘Mulan’ PVOD Access to FandangoNow, Vudu

https://www.mediaplaynews.com/disney...dangonow-vudu/

That is not an EST purchase. It's a PVOD rental. You can avoid being a Disney+ sub (save the $6.99 + tax) and still see Mulan for the $29.99 fee.

It's too early for purchases like EST or Physical Media. Will happen IMO sometime in November when the PVOD ends (11/2/2020)

[JohnAV]

Originally Posted by Vilya

Vudu sent me an email today saying that if I pre-order this digital title for purchase, they would give me a whole $3 credit.

Now I understand what that Disney party was saying about Mulan becomes available next week yesterday when fixing a incorrect digital code.

But I did get some discussion that the Fox integration to their organization is ongoing against getting those titles out on media and on Disney +.

[Vilya]

mulanvudu.jpg

That's the offer that I received. SD, HDX, and UHD are all priced at $29.99. Release date for digital purchase is "expected" on Oct. 6th according to Vudu's product page for this title. Hard pass.

[Lee A Stewart]

Originally Posted by Vilya

Attachment 248317

That's the offer that I received. SD, HDX, and UHD are all priced at $29.99. Release date for digital purchase is "expected" on Oct. 6th according to Vudu's product page for this title. Hard pass.

Disney’s high-profile premium video-on-demand (Premier Access) experiment, releasing the live-action movie Mulan to Disney+ subscribers, is now expanding to FandangoNow and Vudu.com.

Disney will make the movie available Oct. 6 on Vudu and FandangoNow, with pre-orders available now for the same $29.99 purchase price in SD, HD or 4K UHD currently offered to Disney+ subscribers.

Consumers pre-ordering Mulan on Vudu will get a $3 credit towards other movies and TV shows on the platform upon the film’s release. The movie was first released on Sept. 4.

https://www.mediaplaynews.com/disney...dangonow-vudu/

[Vilya]

Vudu's offer clearly states "buy this movie" as does their product page. When a title is offered for rental at Vudu, the drop down price menu clearly states "Rent."

Examples:

Bill.jpg

and

MulanDigitalDate.jpg

Notice the absence of a "rent" drop down menu? It says "get early access to BUY this hit movie", too.

[Vilya]

Terms and Conditions:

MulanPreorder.jpg

First sentence reads:

Pre-order the purchase of any of the titles listed on this page within the specified pre-order window and receive a Promotional Code

Mulan was the ONLY title on this page.

[Lee A Stewart]

According to the Disney+ question and answer page for Mulan, the movie will be available for a PVOD purchase from September 4th to November 2nd, 2020, 11:59 PT where they will stop selling the film.

https://bleedingcool.com/movies/mula...ey-eventually/

That hasn't changed BTW.

[alchav21]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

Keep going up? Where? I paid roughly the same (£800) that I spend every year on Blu-ray with several 4 k titles.

Originally Posted by Vilya

If discs were "in the past" I would not have weekly new releases to choose from. An item being niche does not make it outdated; discs remain the best way to truly own, see, and hear movies and TV shows.

Prices have NOT been going up. You persist in this foolish fiction. Prices are flat to slightly lower varying with the format. Those of that actually buy discs would be the first to notice, and the most likely to complain, if prices were increasing. As someone on a fixed retirement income, I would notice if discs were costing me more and they are not.

We also all already know that a product needs to be profitable in order for it to continue being offered. Did you move from the state of Utah to the state of Obvious?

So you guys agree in order for Discs to be profitable they have to be bought. If Disc prices are not going up are you buying them at $35-$30 for 4K and $25-$20 for BD? Probably more like $25 or less for 4K and $15 or less for BD. At those prices they are being sold, but Profit Margins are not being met. I'm not even talking about the Collectors Editions that cost a lot more. Just making Break Even is not going to cut it!

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by alchav21

So you guys agree in order for Discs to be profitable they have to be bought. If Disc prices are not going up are you buying them at $35-$30 for 4K and $25-$20 for BD? Probably more like $25 or less for 4K and $15 or less for BD. At those prices they are being sold, but Profit Margins are not being met. I'm not even talking about the Collectors Editions that cost a lot more. Just making Break Even is not going to cut it!

Are you being goofy on purpose? When is unsold merchandise ever profitable?

Most 4K discs sell for $20-$30 on release day. Most Blu-rays typically sell for $15-$25 on release day with Criterion and Arrow releases going for $28. There are exceptions, of course, for limited editions, steelbooks, multi-title box sets, and collector sets, etc. A few titles debut at even lower prices than the ranges that I gave above. Release day prices for 4K discs and blu-rays have been priced in these general ranges for years.

The much anticipated release of the Back To The Future trilogy on 4K disc (Oct. 20th) has a pre-order price of just $42.99; that averages to just $14.33 per movie. The MSRP is $55.98 (which is $18.66 per movie), but MSRP is almost never the asking price near to or on release day.

Next week there are two 4K releases scheduled; the movie 300, pre-order priced at $24.99, and Shutter Island, pre-order priced at $19.99. This is typical.

Discs would not continue to be offered if they were being sold at a loss or at break even price points. I shouldn't even have to say something so obvious. No company makes a habit of selling products at a loss nor do they hope to just break even. Studios and their licensees would not make and market discs if it was not profitable for them to do so; this should be equally obvious.

I have told you this many times before (to no avail) that those of us that regularly buy discs do not need lectures about discs prices from people, like you, that do not buy them.