Physical & Digital EST: The Future of Home Video Discussion Thread

[PenguinMaster]

Originally Posted by alchav21

There are very few Movies you would want to keep Forever, and all a Studio has to do make your Disc Obsolete is come out with a New Format. Then all you control is an Old Movie Disc!

A huge number of movies don't come out on the latest formats. There are thousands of movies that are out of print and unavailable digitally. But the vast majority of those movies are still available to buy through the used market. Each person who owns a disc has control of that disc so control of the movie is in thousands of hands.

Many of those movies are on what you would call an "obsolete format" like DVD but having a movie on an "obsolete format" is a superior option to not having it at all. None of the movies on "obsolete format" discs are going to stop working just because a new format comes out.

Long after the studios have dropped support for Blu-ray the billions of discs they've made will continue to work. Plus I expect the vast majority of those titles will never be released on a later format.

[BlakkMajik3000]

So I got an Apple Watch the other day. I saw it had a Hulu app, so I installed it. Unfortunately, it's just a "remote" for video playing on your iPhone, and does not play videos itself.

Anyway, I didn't really want to view video on it (any screen smaller than my MacBook is a definite no-go). I just thought it would be cool to troll Steedeel by saying I watched a video on my smartwatch.

Ah well, perhaps another time.

[alchav21]

Originally Posted by alchav21

There are very few Movies you would want to keep Forever, and all a Studio has to do make your Disc Obsolete is come out with a New Format. Then all you control is an Old Movie Disc!

Originally Posted by PenguinMaster

A huge number of movies don't come out on the latest formats. There are thousands of movies that are out of print and unavailable digitally. But the vast majority of those movies are still available to buy through the used market. Each person who owns a disc has control of that disc so control of the movie is in thousands of hands.

Many of those movies are on what you would call an "obsolete format" like DVD but having a movie on an "obsolete format" is a superior option to not having it at all. None of the movies on "obsolete format" discs are going to stop working just because a new format comes out.

Long after the studios have dropped support for Blu-ray the billions of discs they've made will continue to work. Plus I expect the vast majority of those titles will never be released on a later format.

Yes you're right, you could still keep and watch those Old Discs as long as you have a Player that still reads them and works. The Good Old Movies that don't go to the latest Digital Format will still go Digital. I watched the Cincinnati Kid the other night, and it was just available on SD, an Old Classic with Steve McQueen. So I think the Good Movies will always be available on Digital.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by BlakkMajik3000

So I got an Apple Watch the other day. I saw it had a Hulu app, so I installed it. Unfortunately, it's just a "remote" for video playing on your iPhone, and does not play videos itself.

Anyway, I didn't really want to view video on it (any screen smaller than my MacBook is a definite no-go). I just thought it would be cool to troll Steedeel by saying I watched a video on my smartwatch.

Ah well, perhaps another time.

Oh, there will be other times, you can count on it. (No pun intended)

[master gandhi]

Originally Posted by alchav21

Yes you're right, you could still keep and watch those Old Discs as long as you have a Player that still reads them and works. The Good Old Movies that don't go to the latest Digital Format will still go Digital. I watched the Cincinnati Kid the other night, and it was just available on SD, an Old Classic with Steve McQueen. So I think the Good Movies will always be available on Digital.

You know I support digital, but there is a classic movie I can think of off the top of my head that's nonexistent on digital, and that's the original 1978 Dawn of the Dead. As far as TV shows, Dr Katz: Professional Therapist is also nonexistent on digital. I can't wait to see those show up. Plus I want to be able to own Seinfeld on digital. Maybe once the Hulu deal is over, if that's what's keeping it off iTunes & VUDU.

Edit: the Seinfeld/Hulu deal is going to last five years, and it began in 2015, so it won't be on iTunes or VUDU until 2020 at least. Rats.

[whipnet]

Originally Posted by master gandhi

You know I support digital, but there is a classic movie I can think of off the top of my head that's nonexistent on digital, and that's the original 1978 Dawn of the Dead.

'The Abyss' from James Cameron. Same thing. Great movie from a super producer and no digital version.

*

[PenguinMaster]

Originally Posted by alchav21

Yes you're right, you could still keep and watch those Old Discs as long as you have a Player that still reads them and works. The Good Old Movies that don't go to the latest Digital Format will still go Digital. I watched the Cincinnati Kid the other night, and it was just available on SD, an Old Classic with Steve McQueen. So I think the Good Movies will always be available on Digital.

So... The Cincinnati Kid is a old good movie and it is available digitally, therefore all old good movies will be available digitally? That's not a sound argument.

There will always be old movies that remain popular (like The Cincinnati Kid) and therefore remain available. But there are thousands of other movies that don't remain popular and are therefore not profitable for the studios to continue to offer them in any form (physical or digital). Something being unpopular doesn't make it bad, no one should only have access to movies that remain popular.

That's where the used market picks up the slack... but that doesn't exist for digital. No one except the studio who owns the rights can make a digital movie available. Everyone who owns a disc can a physical movie available.

[alchav21]

Originally Posted by alchav21

There are very few Movies you would want to keep Forever, and all a Studio has to do make your Disc Obsolete is come out with a New Format. Then all you control is an Old Movie Disc!

Originally Posted by Steedeel

What? There are hundreds of discs I would want to keep forever. Also, a disc is not going to be outdated for a long long time. I could still still get a VHS player if I want for goodness sake. Look how long I have had access to DVD and we have moved onto 4K.

Now VHS is stretching it a little, I know you can still get a Player but would you? UHD Players are still backward compatible to DVD's, so you could still play those Old Movies. I have always upgraded my Favorite Collection of Movies, from VHS to DVD to Blu-ray, and now Streaming. Soon I'll be going to UHD, but then I just watch a particular Movie in the new Format unless it's not available. Do you upgrade your Old Movies to the new Format, and if so do you keep the Old Format? I have a lot of DVD's I only watched once, and don't care to upgrade or watch again. So I guess it's all personal taste and priorities.

[PenguinMaster]

Originally Posted by alchav21

Now VHS is stretching it a little, I know you can still get a Player but would you? UHD Players are still backward compatible to DVD's, so you could still play those Old Movies. I have always upgraded my Favorite Collection of Movies, from VHS to DVD to Blu-ray, and now Streaming. Soon I'll be going to UHD, but then I just watch a particular Movie in the new Format unless it's not available. Do you upgrade your Old Movies to the new Format, and if so do you keep the Old Format? I have a lot of DVD's I only watched once, and don't care to upgrade or watch again. So I guess it's all personal taste and priorities.

The point is all of the movies that were released on VHS are still available. They're outdated but are still playable. The fact that VHS players are still easy to find at this point gives us hope that it will never be hard to find something to play DVD or Blu-ray on long after all official support has dropped. Though personally I don't trust VHS to last because the magnetism can be lost after a few decades.

But optical storage (like DVD and Blu-ray) doesn't have that problem, it can potentially last centuries if well taken care of. Therefore all of the DVDs that have been discontinued and have absolutely no official support will remain available for a very long time. As long as they outlast the copyright (120 years) then all those titles will never be unavailable.

There are plenty of movies I stopped liking over the years and ended up selling but availability relies on that. All the people selling their unwanted movies benefit all the people who buy out of print movies. If a movie sells a few thousand copies early on (the vast majority of movies sell at least that) then many of those copies will remain in circulation long after most people and the studio have forgotten about the movie.

[SarahS]

Digital all the way! Physical Copies ...blah! Who actually goes and puts a disc in a player anymore? Not me. Why would you want to own hundreds if not thousands of films when you are going to have to convert them all again to 4k (or a good majority of them anyway). I had over 3,000 VHS tapes at one time then converted to DVD where that collection grew to over 4,000 and then again with BD to a collection of over 2,000 and finally sold them. I have my ITunes, GooglePlay etc all linked to my Vudu and can let my family use the films as well through the account. Not to mention storage space! At the end of the day you actually own noting by wasting cash for all these films on BD. In 15 years all those discs will be drink coasters and Ill still be streaming! Oh and the best thing is that I only pay 3-8 dollars for a release.

[PenguinMaster]

Originally Posted by SarahS

Digital all the way! Physical Copies ...blah! Who actually goes and puts a disc in a player anymore? Not me. Why would you want to own hundreds if not thousands of films when you are going to have to convert them all again to 4k (or a good majority of them anyway)?

How is that only a physical issue? Why would you want to own hundreds if not thousands of digital HD films when you are going to have to buy them all again in digital 4K?

A digital copy of a movie you don't want anymore or have upgraded is completely worthless and useless. A physical copy of a movie I don't want anymore or have upgraded can be sold or given away to someone who wants it.

Originally Posted by SarahS

At the end of the day you actually own noting by wasting cash for all these films on BD. In 15 years all those discs will be drink coasters and Ill still be streaming! Oh and the best thing is that I only pay 3-8 dollars for a release.

All of my DVDs still work just fine. All of my BDs will still work in the future as well. And most of my BDs have been 3-8 dollars as well.

[Tihom]

Despite having a fast connection capable of streaming 4K I still see a great difference in streaming vs physical. I was in buy only digital camp but after seeing the difference in proper setup, I have started buying physical disk (with digital codes). Cost the same as buying the digital copy alone.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by SarahS

Digital all the way! Physical Copies ...blah! Who actually goes and puts a disc in a player anymore? Not me. Why would you want to own hundreds if not thousands of films when you are going to have to convert them all again to 4k (or a good majority of them anyway). I had over 3,000 VHS tapes at one time then converted to DVD where that collection grew to over 4,000 and then again with BD to a collection of over 2,000 and finally sold them. I have my ITunes, GooglePlay etc all linked to my Vudu and can let my family use the films as well through the account. Not to mention storage space! At the end of the day you actually own noting by wasting cash for all these films on BD. In 15 years all those discs will be drink coasters and Ill still be streaming! Oh and the best thing is that I only pay 3-8 dollars for a release.

Millions upon millions of people still put a disc in a player. If you care about quality it's disc all the way. Also ownership is very shaky ground with streaming. Finally, I wouldn't be confident that Digital HD is here to stay. They haven't shown any real growth and sales are now only up YOY by a single percentage. That is awful and at this early stage, very worrying. The future is subscription plus disc for the hardcore collectors. The numbers don't lie!

By the way, your presumption that collectors will be replacing all their discs with 4k versions is a False one IMO. Most will buy both still.

[Wasgo]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

The future is subscription plus disc for the hardcore collectors. The numbers don't lie!

This is the only thing you've ever said that I agree with.

[PCFan]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

The future is subscription plus disc for the hardcore collectors. The numbers don't lie!

Does this mean in the future physical purchases will be more expensive than digital purchases and that physical will be only published by special studios such as Criterion and Shout Factory? Is it possible that iTune and Vudu can turn into a subscription only service so that you can watch all the movies in their services for a monthly fee?

[PenguinMaster]

Originally Posted by PCFan

Is it possible that iTune and Vudu can turn into a subscription only service so that you can watch all the movies in their services for a monthly fee?

There's no chance of that happening. There's no way that the studios can make a profit sharing a $10-$20 per month per household subscription for everything.

I think we'll see a lot of "channels" like Amazon Prime has. You buy a base subscription for $100 a year that mostly has older or unpopular stuff and then you can buy a subscriptions to HBO, Showtime, Starz, Cinemax, Fullscreen, PBS, Acorn, etc... for $5-$15 per month each.

People love streaming subscriptions now because they're cheap. But when channels become standard and each subscription offers less and less they won't end up being cheaper than physical media.

Here they are now on Amazon Prime if you want to see what I'm talking about:
https://www.amazon.com/s/browse?_enc...ode=2858778011

[veritas]

Originally Posted by PenguinMaster

There's no chance of that happening. I think we'll see a lot of "channels" like Amazon Prime has. You buy a base subscription for $100 a year that mostly has older or unpopular stuff and then you can buy a subscriptions to HBO, Showtime, Starz, Cinemax, Fullscreen, PBS, Acorn, etc... for $5-$15 per month each.

People love streaming subscriptions now because they're cheap. But when channels become standard and each subscription offers less and less they won't end up being cheaper than physical media.

Here they are now on Amazon Prime if you want to see what I'm talking about:
https://www.amazon.com/s/browse?_enc...ode=2858778011

I mean it wont be everything but they made apple music which is a streaming service so they will probably do a video streaming service if they can ever talk enough studios into doing it to justify the effort. I mean going off the rate it took to get apple music it will probably be like 10 to 20 years but it probably will happen eventually when apple decides it wants some of that Netflix money.

[PenguinMaster]

Originally Posted by veritas

They made apple music which is a streaming service so they will probably do a video streaming service if they can ever talk enough studios into doing it to justify the effort. I mean going off the rate it took to get apple music it will probably be like 10 to 20 years but it probably will happen eventually when apple decides it wants some of that Netflix money.

The cost of making a movie is 1000 times the cost of making an album. Movies can't be profitable using the same business model.

When a blockbuster movie costs $200 million to make they aren't going to include it with a subscription that gives people access to everything for $15-$20 a month. Plenty of people are willing to buy those movies for $15-$25 each.

By the way, anyone who doubts the popularity of physical media for music should check the RIAA's figures: https://www.riaa.com/u-s-sales-database/

In the United States in 2015 (they haven't reported 2016 yet) physical media made 2.024 Billion dollars, downloads made 2.382 billion dollars, and subscriptions and digital radio made 2.608 billion dollars. For CDs (and vinyl) being "dead" they're doing extremely well, still making up 28% of sales. I don't know how anyone can think physical media will go away anytime soon.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by PenguinMaster

The cost of making a movie is 1000 times the cost of making an album. Movies can't be profitable using the same business model.

When a blockbuster movie costs $200 million to make they aren't going to include it with a subscription that gives people access to everything for $15-$20 a month. Plenty of people are willing to buy those movies for $15-$25 each.

By the way, anyone who doubts the popularity of physical media for music should check the RIAA's figures: https://www.riaa.com/u-s-sales-database/

In the United States in 2015 (they haven't reported 2016 yet) physical media made 2.024 Billion dollars, downloads made 2.382 billion dollars, and subscriptions and digital radio made 2.608 billion dollars. For CDs (and vinyl) being "dead" they're doing extremely well, still making up 28% of sales. I don't know how anyone can think physical media will go away anytime soon.

Yes, but these films will still see a cinema release and maybe in the future it will be 1 month later when we can buy on Bluray or If it's still here, Digital HD. All films then go to the appropriate subscription service with a probable 18-24 month gap in between. That's still a huge back catalogue of films for a monthly fee.

I'm with you though with disc, I hope disc will stick around. One thing I'm pretty sure about, is the Digital mob won't pay full price for content. They are buying Digital because it is cheap and riding the coat tail of Blu-ray Discs while they do it. If disc WERE to die, so does people paying full price for movies.

[PenguinMaster]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

Yes, but these films will still see a cinema release and maybe in the future it will be 1 month later when we can buy on Bluray or If it's still here, Digital HD. All films then go to the appropriate subscription service with a probable 18-24 month gap in between. That's still a huge back catalogue of films for a monthly fee.

Having that back catalog available would cut into Blu-ray and Digital HD sales (and possibly even theater sales). If people had access to a huge number of semi-recent popular movies for a monthly fee then they'd be a lot less likely to buy movies at launch.

In their current form Netflix and Amazon Prime mostly offer unpopular movies, old movies, and original content so many people are just using them as a supplementary source of entertainment (both services actually have considerably less movies then they used to). If the majority of movies showed up on a subscription service within a couple of years then most people would have very little interest in purchasing anything else.