Physical & Digital EST: The Future of Home Video Discussion Thread

[Ender14]

Originally Posted by bhampton

I can't imagine doing the premiere access again.

But, I'm pretty sure they will continue offering it. I adore Emily Blunt but I can surely wait for the Jungle Cruise movie.

I would like to see No Time To Die at some point. Actual theaters would be fine. (I would drive an hour or two to get to a good theater for that.)

I'm fairly certain you're right. $60 million is nothing to sneeze at especially when you get to keep all of it. But as others have pointed out, how many more people are going to order it over Premiere Access that haven't already? My guess would be not many.

But there are still plenty of people who haven't seen it in theaters yet that want to. I think the theatrical gross will be at least double what it ends up making on Premiere Access. Which just goes to show these tentpoles will still rely on theatrical releases to recoup their money. Premiere Access will just provide an additional revenue stream, much like physical discs.

[bhampton]

I fell in love with movies at the theater and that is where they belong.

I'm fairly obsessed with home theater since getting my first projector in 1999.

My local theaters (where I live now) are horrible and it's 1.5 hours to a somewhat up to date multiplex.

I hope for the best. I'm sure the near term has a few more surprises.

[Ender14]

Originally Posted by bhampton

My local theaters (where I live now) are horrible and it's 1.5 hours to a somewhat up to date multiplex.

Sorry to hear that, I know it sucks to have to drive that far. When we moved where we are now 16 years ago the closest decent theater was 45 minutes away. Not quite as bad as your drive but still a pain. Luckily AMC opened a 12 screen theater 8 minutes away about 10 years ago. Their smaller theaters have poor quality but if you catch big movies on opening weekend in one of the bigger theaters it's generally pretty good.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by Ender14

I'm fairly certain you're right. $60 million is nothing to sneeze at especially when you get to keep all of it. But as others have pointed out, how many more people are going to order it over Premiere Access that haven't already? My guess would be not many.

But there are still plenty of people who haven't seen it in theaters yet that want to. I think the theatrical gross will be at least double what it ends up making on Premiere Access. Which just goes to show these tentpoles will still rely on theatrical releases to recoup their money. Premiere Access will just provide an additional revenue stream, much like physical discs.

It was basically 2% of Disney+ subscribers that generated that money.

[JohnAV]

‘Black Widow’ Stunner: Disney’s Streaming Revenue Reveal May Be Game-Changer - Hollywood Reporter 7/12

The conglomerate says the superhero pic made more than $60 million on Disney+ Premier Access during its opening weekend — a sizable 27 percent of its global $218.8 million hybrid streaming/box office debut.

Marvel Studio’s Black Widow may have just changed the rules of Hollywood’s all-consuming streaming wars race versus the box office.

The Disney empire stunned rival Hollywood studios and theater owners Sunday when including premium video on-demand numbers in its box office note for the Marvel female-led superhero pic starring Scarlett Johansson. It’s the first time any movie studio has revealed such data for an opening weekend, and only the second time for any PVOD title after Trolls: World Tour (several weeks after Trolls 2 movie opened in spring 2020, NBCUniversal chief Jeff Shell said the animated film had amassed more than $100 million.) Otherwise, viewership numbers have been kept in the vault, whether for PVOD titles or studio films opening simultaneously on their sister companies at no extra fee (think HBO Max, or Disney in some instances).

Now along comes Black Widow to make the web more tangled, and putting pressure on studios to reveal such information going forward on behalf of filmmakers, talent and agents.

According to Disney’s Sunday note, the big-budget Marvel tentpole grossed more than $60 million on Disney+ Premier Access — subscribers had to pay an extra $30 to watch Black Widow — while debuting to a pandemic-era best $80 million at the domestic box office and $78.8 million overseas for a global theatrical bow of $158.8 million. The Disney+ portion made up a hefty 27 percent of the total $218.8 million opening.

That $60 million from Disney+ would mean that about 2 million member accounts of its 103 million global subscriber base paid $30 to see Black Widow. Disney executives wouldn’t say whether they will continue to reveal numbers for its upcoming day-and-date Premier Access releases, such as July’s Jungle Cruise, starring Dwayne Johnson and Emily Blunt and based on the iconic Disneyland ride. Nor did they revisit the recent past, and dole out Disney+ Premier Access numbers for Mulan or Raya and the Last Dragon.

Studios including Disney and Warner Bros. have indicated that this day-and-date practice is a consequence of the pandemic, which wiped out moviegoing. (Warners is making its entire 2021 slate available at no extra cost to HBO Max subscribers, so it would be almost impossible to give a revenue figure in the same way.)

There was immediate speculation that Disney decided to announce the Disney+ numbers to enhance Black Widow‘s opening in honor of Marvel’s prowess.

While $80 million domestically is nothing to smirk at amid the ongoing recovery, some analysts had hoped Black Widow would clear $90 million. But the movie’s progress was stalled when traffic fell a steep 41 percent from Friday to Saturday, an almost unprecedented drop for a Marvel title.

“For marketing purposes it’s great to show people the movie made over $200mn for the weekend. It’s a psychological number,” says Wall Street analyst Eric Handler of MKM partners.

Veteran distribution executives say it’s clear that the availability of the movie on Disney+ cannibalized box office, noting that an entire household might have gone to see the movie in the theater but could instead pay just $30 to watch it together at home. Also, Disney gets to keep nearly all of the Premier Access revenue, versus splitting box office ticket sales with theater owners.

Other sources believe Disney may have been trying to send a message to some exhibitors overseas who were reluctant to play Black Widow because of the day-and-date release. That applies to some theater owners in Japan, who wanted better terms than Disney was willing to offer.

Also, the box office is still in recovery mode and far from operating at normal levels in some parts of North America and overseas. U.S. moviegoers who are 35 and older are far less likely to return to the multiplex, while some parents are reluctant to take unvaccinated kids to the multiplex. Thus, it’s impossible to know how many of those watching it on Disney+ Premier would have gone to the cinema.

As it turned out, Black Widow was frontloaded at the domestic box office and fueled by fanboys (males made up 58 percent of ticket buyers).

It’s not clear when Disney activated its plan to include the Premier Access numbers. For its part, Disney has used the past 15 or 16 months to experiment with its streaming service, which now boasts more than 100 million customers worldwide. It has sent some movies straight to Disney+ at no extra charge. Black Widow, costing at least $200 million to produce, wasn’t one of them.

Box office analyst Paul Dergarabedian of Comscore thinks the result for Black Widow is a boon for the box office either way, noting that overall domestic revenue crossed $100 million for the first time since before the pandemic struck. He also noted that the marketplace is still grappling with “latent consumer reticence” and theaters that have yet to open their doors.

“If the pie is big enough to power $158.8 million worth of global theatrical revenue plus $60 million worth of streaming, it shows that consumers love to have a choice,” Dergarabedian says. “But this model does not apply to all movies and that’s why each film’s big screen/small screen success must be evaluated on a case-by-case basis.”

The other two recent box office hits, Universal’s F9 and Paramount’s A Quiet Place Part II were given exclusive theatrical releases.

[Ender14]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

It was basically 2% of Disney+ subscribers that generated that money.

Yep, that is about right because with that gross at a $29.99 price tag means a little over 2 million people rented it through Premiere Access. Not a great percentage when you really look at it.

Plus, as I mentioned it is a one time fee. So most everyone who wanted to see it through Disney+ probably already has. Nothing but a sheer cliff on those number going forward whereas theatrical could still potentially generate another $150+ million before it leaves theaters.

Long story short, I'm not concerned theatrical is going anywhere.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by Ender14

Yep, that is about right because with that gross at a $29.99 price tag means a little over 2 million people rented it through Premiere Access. Not a great percentage when you really look at it.

Plus, as I mentioned it is a one time fee. So most everyone who wanted to see it through Disney+ probably already has. Nothing but a sheer cliff on those number going forward whereas theatrical could still potentially generate another $150+ million before it leaves theaters.

Long story short, I'm not concerned theatrical is going anywhere.

Me neither.

[Lee A Stewart]

While $80 million domestically is nothing to smirk at amid the ongoing recovery, some analysts had hoped Black Widow would clear $90 million. But the movie’s progress was stalled when traffic fell a steep 41 percent from Friday to Saturday, an almost unprecedented drop for a Marvel title.

How do you explain this?

[Ender14]

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

How do you explain this?

The pandemic is still keeping people away from theaters. Let me ask you this: How much more do you think they will get out of Premiere Access versus theatrical?

[JohnAV]

Originally Posted by Ender14

The pandemic is still keeping people away from theaters. Let me ask you this: How much more do you think they will get out of Premiere Access versus theatrical?

Both legit thoughts. I could imagine the pure fans would likely attend Friday then over the weekend. As I posted previously Premier Access is not something Disney is telling us what they will do with in the future either. This Black Widow dual access is still a ongoing experiment that will be judged on its first month, not first weekend. Next week end is not going to pose much of a threat to Black Widow

see https://www.movieinsider.com/movies/july/2021/16 or the following week https://www.movieinsider.com/movies/july/2021/23

[Lee A Stewart]

Originally Posted by Ender14

The pandemic is still keeping people away from theaters.

Huh? It was OK for Thurs/Fri but not for Sat/Sun?

Let me ask you this: How much more do you think they will get out of Premiere Access versus theatrical?

You want me to speculate on the total revenue Disney will receive from Premier Access for Black Widow? Will Disney tell us the total? This is the first time they have ever made the numbers available to the public. How do we know they will continue to do so? How will we know if my guess is right or wrong?

[Lee A Stewart]

Originally Posted by JohnAV

Both legit thoughts. I could imagine the pure fans would likely attend Friday then over the weekend.

Why? That is sheer speculation with no explaination as to how you arrived at your prognostication.

Don't people have more free time on Saturday and Sunday then they do on Thursday and Friday?

[Lee A Stewart]

How much (theaterical) will the drop be from opening weekend to next weekend? The answer will be provided by the trades.

Opening Weekend (Theaterical):

$80M Domestic
$79M International

[Steedeel]

Disney have basically shot themselves in the foot by releasing on Disney+. The streaming revenue is going to be way less than a pure cinema play. They will probably lose out to the tune of 200 million or so. They are basically cannibalising themselves and I think going forward, they will be way more selective with their premier access titles. (I believe after Jungle Cruise they are going all out theatrical on the next two big titles). They need to be very careful lest they permanently lose crucial revenues.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by JohnAV

Both legit thoughts. I could imagine the pure fans would likely attend Friday then over the weekend. As I posted previously Premier Access is not something Disney is telling us what they will do with in the future either. This Black Widow dual access is still a ongoing experiment that will be judged on its first month, not first weekend. Next week end is not going to pose much of a threat to Black Widow

see https://www.movieinsider.com/movies/july/2021/16 or the following week https://www.movieinsider.com/movies/july/2021/23

Yeah, the fanboy crowd would typically attend over the opening two nights. Weekend is more casuals.

Like you say, the Disney+ numbers after the first month will be critical. Personally, I think we will see a much streamlined showing in Q4 and for 2022. Disney likes money after all.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

Huh? It was OK for Thurs/Fri but not for Sat/Sun?



You want me to speculate on the total revenue Disney will receive from Premier Access for Black Widow? Will Disney tell us the total? This is the first time they have ever made the numbers available to the public. How do we know they will continue to do so? How will we know if my guess is right or wrong?

Fanboys desperate to see the film. Weekend crowds are more casual, spur of the moment. This is not a secret, it’s been that way for ever.

[Ender14]

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

Huh? It was OK for Thurs/Fri but not for Sat/Sun?

As Steedeel said, the die hard fans see it ASAP. I know people who are still cautious about Covid that braved the theater just to see it on the big screen. The casual viewers who are cautious are more likely to stay away period.

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

You want me to speculate on the total revenue Disney will receive from Premier Access for Black Widow? Will Disney tell us the total? This is the first time they have ever made the numbers available to the public. How do we know they will continue to do so? How will we know if my guess is right or wrong?

Fair points. They may not in which case we could not verify whether your estimation is correct or not. But I would think if the numbers continued to be that impressive they would have no problem reporting them. They obviously wanted to toot their horn at the Premiere Access success of the movie. If it continues to do that well I see no reason why they would want to keep it a secret.

Unless the numbers drop off significantly in which case their silence could confirm my theory. If anyone wants to see the movie twice in theaters they have to pay again. With Premiere Access they can watch it as many times as they want. Logic would dictate that there will be a sharper drop in Premiere Access revenue because those that have already paid will not need to do so again. Logic would also dictate that the majority of those who are willing to pay $30 for Premiere Access have already done so.

I'm not saying they won't make anymore money from Premiere Access, but I'm willing to guarantee the drop off will be more significant than the 55% - 60% drop seen in theatrical releases.

[Lee A Stewart]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

Fanboys desperate to see the film. Weekend crowds are more casual, spur of the moment. This is not a secret, it’s been that way for ever.

That's not what was said in the article:

But the movie’s progress was stalled when traffic fell a steep 41 percent from Friday to Saturday, an almost unprecedented drop for a Marvel title.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by Ender14

As Steedeel said, the die hard fans see it ASAP. I know people who are still cautious about Covid that braved the theater just to see it on the big screen. The casual viewers who are cautious are more likely to stay away period.



Fair points. They may not in which case we could not verify whether your estimation is correct or not. But I would think if the numbers continued to be that impressive they would have no problem reporting them. They obviously wanted to toot their horn at the Premiere Access success of the movie. If it continues to do that well I see no reason why they would want to keep it a secret.

Unless the numbers drop off significantly in which case their silence could confirm my theory. If anyone wants to see the movie twice in theaters they have to pay again. With Premiere Access they can watch it as many times as they want. Logic would dictate that there will be a sharper drop in Premiere Access revenue because those that have already paid will not need to do so again. Logic would also dictate that the majority of those who are willing to pay $30 for Premiere Access have already done so.

I'm not saying they won't make anymore money from Premiere Access, but I'm willing to guarantee the drop off will be more significant than the 55% - 60% drop seen in theatrical releases.

We also have kids school holidays from next Monday which will surely give theatrical a boost.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

That's not what was said in the article:

That’s where the drop comes from. The casuals watching at home. I have said all along, this is not a healthy model, Disney know this and that’s why Jungle Cruise will be the last big blockbuster (for a short while) to also hit Disney+ premium. It’s going to cannibalise their takings by a hefty margin.

Just 2% of Disney’s subscribers chose to rent the movie meaning the vast majority are happy to wait later in the year. The long tail is just not healthy but Disney (and the industry) now know that the theatrical model can be very healthy again.

I expect future premium access titles to come along at least two weeks after the cinema release.