81:19 Nielsen/VideoScan Weekly Sales Numbers

[gand41f]

Originally Posted by monkyman

Stop worrying about loseing weeks or cheap players. Just go out and enjoy your movies. Order the ones you want, it's all we can do. Warner is in this to make money, the biggest time is durring the holiday. They are going to take as much money from both sides by making us think that will determine who they go with. I'm sure they already have plans in the works as to their intensions.

Exactly right. I doubt Warner is paying attention to weekly Nielsen reports. These are good for public relations/marketing purposes (I'm sure HD-DVD groups had several shills ready to go with their "format war not over yet, HD-DVD coming back!" stories) until last Friday's Neilsen numbers came in reporting BD won 51-49. But for studios, it doesn't really matter which side has sold more for any given week.

One number Warner execs sure will be watching is their own sales, as they are the only remaining dual-format studio, but another number I think they will be interested in is the DVD/highdef ratio, as that will give some clue on the growth of the formats. If you are a movie studio, you can't really fault HD-DVD hardware manufacturers for not having SM3 or POTC3 since that's a movie studio decision. However, you can fault them for selling so much less than DVD.

I believe Transformers sold 115k in HD-DVD vs. 8.4 million for DVD, which is pretty pathetic (just a little over 1%). Does anyone have first week DVD/highdef numbers of other big movies this year (Casino Royale, 300, etc.)?

enjoy
gandalf

[WickyWoo]

Are you saying that Nielsen's weekly percentages are actually extrapolated estimations, not ratios calculated directly (i.e., no guesswork) from their reporting locations?

No, what I'm saying is that Wal-Mart's unit sales follow the same curve that everyone else sees overall, because you're selling to the same customers when you take a sample that large.

Wal-Mart is not included in the figures, but if the data the studios were getting from WM for sales contradicted what Nielsen was seeing, then since WM sells about 30% of all media sold that would tell Nielsen that there was something wrong with their tracking and they would go about finding a way to fix it.

[gand41f]

Originally Posted by WickyWoo

No, what I'm saying is that Wal-Mart's unit sales follow the same curve that everyone else sees overall, because you're selling to the same customers when you take a sample that large.

Wal-Mart is not included in the figures, but if the data the studios were getting from WM for sales contradicted what Nielsen was seeing, then since WM sells about 30% of all media sold that would tell Nielsen that there was something wrong with their tracking and they would go about finding a way to fix it.

Oh, I see what you mean now. Thanks.

enjoy
gandalf

[Anthony P]

I need to convince my bro and/or sis to buy a PS3. Otherwise I can't buy BD for them for christmas.
Although I think they need an HDTV first. WHY must I hold back on buying these discs?? Dang Christmas shopping! My wife won't let me buy anything for me until after Dec 25th.

invite them over for some games and movies. It is amazing how well that works

[Anthony P]

Nielsen does include Wal-Mart in their projection, even if they don't know the actual numbers. They make educated guesses. This was covered quite extensively in the Transformers week.

no theyu do not. VS is actual numbers. On the other hand HMM uses estimated numbers when you see their augmented numbers but then they don't put those in the VS table.

As for how does one estimate? you have a rough estimate of the market share covered by VS and then assume that the ratio is the same in the small % that is missing.

[Anthony P]

Are you saying that Nielsen's weekly percentages are actually extrapolated estimations, not ratios calculated directly (i.e., no guesswork) from their reporting locations?

I think what he is saying is more like the following example

let's say VS has 55k sold for A and 45k for B (be it formats, be it studios, be it what ever). Let's say that the rest of the stores sold sold 5k A and 45k B (real different from VS)

VS ratio= 55:45 and combined 60:90 or 40:60. If this was true thjen studios would soon lose all interest in the VS numbers because they are extremely off from reality. That is why everyone feels comfortable enough to say that if VS has 55:45 then it is most likely 55:45 for the market as a whole. Then if VS has 66% it is safe to say that if VS has 55k sold then the real number should be close to 83k.

Don't forget studios will know how many were sold to most big customers (WM, Amazon, CC, BB...) and will have the % sold in most of them (they don't just get the simple % we do)

[galperi1]

Things should start getting interesting. HD-DVD is giving away 10 HD-DVD's with the A3 at Best Buy this week (#1 Retailer). 3 of which will scan through with each purchase.

That is insane though giving away that many movies. Granted it's only 5 more than Blu-Ray with the typical 5 MIR... but holy crap.

I really do wonder what will happen to their glorious attach rate though with all these super-cheap players hitting the market. Someone spending $98 on a HD-DVD player will most likely NOT be spending $30+ on a HD-DVD media.

[sphdle1]

Originally Posted by bdrex28

I firmly believe Harry Potter will be a HUGE comparison that Warner looks at hard.

I keep wishing they'd pull a Paramount in a way, pulll all the HD DVD copies of HP and go Blu-Ray only for Xmas.

I agree that the HP movies will be looked at closely by warner!

[Bullseye]

You know one format is going to be left with only 5 HP movies on their format. I sure hope its no BD

[BluRed]

Originally Posted by Bullseye

You know one format is going to be left with only 5 HP movies on their format. I sure hope its no BD

Nah, I doubt that either format will be dead so soon. Both sides are digging in for a long war, and they'll milk the HP films for release on as many formats as possible.

[CptGreedle]

This sucks. Now they say they aren't going to decide one way or the other. Looks like they got cold feet. Perhaps someone is offering them something to stay neutral...
Either way, they are more important than they think and I sure hope they realize what they SHOULD do to end the war, and that the sales from 4Q will show that too.

[doctorsteve]

They will keep doing what they're doing as long as it's maximizing profits. Period.

[oldmike]

Originally Posted by BluRed

Nah, I doubt that either format will be dead so soon. Both sides are digging in for a long war, and they'll milk the HP films for release on as many formats as possible.

and you guys that are Pro HD DVD dont get it
in a long war no one wins but M$

[pro-bassoonist]

Originally Posted by BluRed

Nah, I doubt that either format will be dead so soon. Both sides are digging in for a long war, and they'll milk the HP films for release on as many formats as possible.

If current sales are your definition of "milking" then I am afraid you have a very limited grasp of the market. They are minuscule and far off where the majors want/need this market to head.

Pro-B

[Flux88MPH]

The fact is, Nielsen is relatively a small survey. It is not a comprehensive accurate portrayal of the consumer purchasing habits as a whole in the US. Their ratings only focus on specific categories and groups and leaves out a lot of different demographics.

[Bullseye]

Originally Posted by BluRed

Nah, I doubt that either format will be dead so soon. Both sides are digging in for a long war, and they'll milk the HP films for release on as many formats as possible.

By the time the 7th film is released it will be 3 years no?

[WickyWoo]

The fact is, Nielsen is relatively a small survey. It is not a comprehensive accurate portrayal of the consumer purchasing habits as a whole in the US. Their ratings only focus on specific categories and groups and leaves out a lot of different demographics.

That's the TV ratings, not the VideoScan reporting

[blitz6speed]

Originally Posted by BluRed

Nah, I doubt that either format will be dead so soon. Both sides are digging in for a long war, and they'll milk the HP films for release on as many formats as possible.

I know personally that Warner has to make a choice for one format by end of february, but they can decide before then too. The reason is because of an outside contract that is forcing them to pick a side. Seriously, enough with this crap, they ARE going to pick a side.

[talbers23]

Originally Posted by blitz6speed

I know personally that Warner has to make a choice for one format by end of february, but they can decide before then too. The reason is because of an outside contract that is forcing them to pick a side. Seriously, enough with this crap, they ARE going to pick a side.

just curious, how do you know that? this would be great because im really getting sick of this format war, but where did you hear this and how reliable is it?

[blitz6speed]

Originally Posted by talbers23

just curious, how do you know that? this would be great because im really getting sick of this format war, but where did you hear this and how reliable is it?

I cannot say where i heard it, but it is iron clad. Bank on it. And buy lots of warner titles. Im buying all 5 potters individually and i bought FMJ Deluxe already (cant find 2001 in stock anywhere).