Blu-ray: Dogged by delays, will it still have its day?

[Rob71]

Originally Posted by blacklion

Perhaps. But even the most enthusiastic advocates of DD know its still about a decade or so away from prime time. Even if we disagree with his conclusions, still there are a couple of useful nuggets in there.

Prime time? There isn't even an agreed upon "format" yet. Everybody has their "version" and there is still no valid ownership model. Good luck on that decade prediction.

Meantime, the BDA, especially the studios need to do a lot more now for blu-ray to truly attain its potential within that time window i.e. cheaper and more user-friendly. And no, that does not include rendering absolutely every new movie in 3D or artificially restricting consumer choice/freedom by shutting down DVD as some have been advocating on here

Cheaper? Just bought The Crazies for $12.99. And The Losers for $19.99. Btw, the DVD was $16.99. No one expects the studios to give the movies away. Well, no one except a few "fair use" advocates. And speaking of The Losers, 51%. Four years in(I'm being generous and counting the Format War time as well) and a new title on BD outsold the DVD version. Not too shabby.

[Travis]

Time. In development for 10 years.... so what. If companies want or need to spend the time, they should.

In the market for 4 years? Yes and no. I, like many others, didn't get a player until the war ended. For me, it was like waiting to see who would enter the market. I say, Blu-ray has really only been in the consumer market for a little over 2 years.

The author's claims are right out the window because I cannot agree with the time. As far as I am concerned, Blu-ray is 2-1/2 years old and is doing fine.

[blacklion]

Rob, do you buy your BDs at brick and mortar stores?

[Clark Kent]

They would never say this on the record, but the major studio executives are disappointed in Blu-ray's ability to replace lost DVD sales. That is the main reason we are seeing a major pullback on catalog titles. Blu-ray sells well at the cheaper price levels, but the studios wanted the format to remain at a significant price premium to DVD. That has not happened as retail stores are simply moving away from media items as loss-leaders.

[Rob71]

Originally Posted by blacklion

Rob, do you buy your BDs at brick and mortar stores?

Best Buy has The Crazies for $12.99. Target price matched Amazon for The Losers. Walmart has a large selection for $9.99, so does Best Buy for that matter(picked up Robin Hood for $7.99. And if you don't like paying $25 for new releases wait a few weeks, just like with DVD.

[Rob71]

Originally Posted by Clark Kent

They would never say this on the record, but the major studio executives are disappointed in Blu-ray's ability to replace lost DVD sales. That is the main reason we are seeing a major pullback on catalog titles. Blu-ray sells well at the cheaper price levels, but the studios wanted the format to remain at a significant price premium to DVD. That has not happened as retail stores are simply moving away from media items as loss-leaders.

Warner didn't get the memo.

[Batman1980]

The format war has only been over for a little over 2 years and we're in a deep recession, it'll be awhile before blu-ray is 40-60% of the market. Studios may actually have to force blu-ray to take over, wonder which one would go first.

[pro-bassoonist]

Originally Posted by Clark Kent

They would never say this on the record, but the major studio executives are disappointed in Blu-ray's ability to replace lost DVD sales. That is the main reason we are seeing a major pullback on catalog titles. Blu-ray sells well at the cheaper price levels, but the studios wanted the format to remain at a significant price premium to DVD. That has not happened as retail stores are simply moving away from media items as loss-leaders.

Hello Clark

I am unsure who are the executives you are referring to, but the consensus amongst the few people I have communicated with is that the format is growing well despite the extremely negative economic conditions we are facing. This said, some of the restructuring we have witnessed with catalog titles is a reflection of two things:

1. Theatrical revenue - a reduction of licensing revenue from a number of different international markets.

2. Cashflow/lack of funding for catalog investments; simply put, the routine the majors followed with catalog DVD production isn't good for catalog BD production.

Finally, your observation that the studios wanted the format to remain at a significant price premium to DVD is also something I have not heard being echoed by those in the know. The price levels that have been encouraged by the majors are a reflection of their desire to have another stable mass format - and I can assure you that from my conversations with folks on both sides of the Atlantic practically no one expected to see the same sale volumes DVD had.

Pro-B

[mjbethancourt]

"Negative history of problems" my foot!
The only "problem" that has "dogged" blu-ray is a crap economy. Everything was going great before the world-economy went down the toilet. In winter 2007/2008 and into the next spring and summer, the format war had ended and blu-ray made a big surge in title-availability and sales, and everybody thought the economy was just going to go through a little real-estate market correction. Instead it just got worse and worse. The supply side has "pulled back" because they know the market sucks. If we woke up tomorrow to find that jobs, wages, and credit were back to normal, I bet that literally tens of millions of people in the U.S. alone would pull the trigger on a long-delayed decision to get that new TV and BD player, and the supply side would likewise dump titles onto the market at a pace to make up for lost time.

... problem is, all "rah!-rah!" politician's pretended enthusiasm aside, right now there is no reason to believe the economy is going to recover any time soon.

Also: a poop economy is just as much if not more of a problem to DD.

[Clark Kent]

Originally Posted by pro-bassoonist

1. Theatrical revenue - a reduction of licensing revenue from a number of different international markets.

2. Cashflow/lack of funding for catalog investments; simply put, the routine the majors followed with catalog DVD production isn't good for catalog BD production.

Finally, your observation that the studios wanted the format to remain at a significant price premium to DVD is also something I have not heard being echoed by those in the know. The price levels that have been encouraged by the majors are a reflection of their desire to have another stable mass format - and I can assure you that from my conversations with folks on both sides of the Atlantic practically no one expected to see the same sale volumes DVD had.

Those are definitely strong factors also in how the market for Blu-ray has developed, Pro-Bassoonist. Cashflow has been a serious problem since the economic meltdown, even for major projects to acquire funding in Hollywood.

[Good Intentions]

As much as I love my Blu's, we just need to come to terms with the fact that this is going to be as good as it gets for Blu-ray. We are seeing almost all new releases on BD, and a slow trickling of catalogue titles. What more can you ask for? The economy has pretty much guaranteed that Blu-ray will never see the same adoption levels as DVD. It is going to take years before the economy completely recovers, and even then, for many folks it will never go back to what it was.

[pro-bassoonist]

Originally Posted by Good Intentions

As much as I love my Blu's, we just need to come to terms with the fact that this is going to be as good as it gets for Blu-ray. We are seeing almost all new releases on BD, and a slow trickling of catalogue titles. What more can you ask for?

Hello,

1. I certainly do not expect 10-15% market share to be as good as it gets. There is plenty of room for improvement/expansion, and I do believe that Blu-ray will have a much larger market share, well over 60-70%.

2. I do not expect Blu-ray to have the same roster of catalog titles SDVD had - never have. SDVD did not have the same roster of catalog titles VHS had either. So any analyst who projects Blu-ray's viability as a format based on the number of catalog titles it ports from SDVD's roster simply does not understand how the market functions - regardless of the economic conditions that affect it.

3. Unlike what you would read on a number of different forums by self-proclaimed experts, the market will be driven by two key factors: a) content b) quality - as these are the two key factors that matter to the approximately 10% of heavy collectors that support it. Portability, interactivity, and all the rest of the so called "must haves" that supposedly define the longevity of a mass format are irrelevant.

4. Finally, something else you need to consider when you determine how Blu-ray will perform as a format is the fact that while with SDVD the studios did not have to monitor closely quality, with Blu-ray they absolutely have to, which means that they have to adapt to the new market just like consumers are. Thus far it appears that some of them did not expect to, which is why you see some delays with catalog releases arriving on Blu-ray. On the other hand, those studios that did the adjustment(s) quickly (Criterion, Eagle Rock Entertainment, etc) are doing just fine. With other words, once the process - ensuring adequate quality - is streamlined, catalog expansion will be normalized.

Pro-B

[mjbethancourt]

Originally Posted by pro-bassoonist

4. Finally, something else you need to consider when you determine how Blu-ray will perform as a format is the fact that while with SDVD the studios did not have to monitor closely quality, with Blu-ray they absolutely have to, which means that they have to adapt to the new market just like consumers are. Thus far it appears that some of them did not expect to, which is why you see some delays with catalog releases arriving on Blu-ray. On the other hand, those studios that did the adjustment(s) quickly (Criterion, Eagle Rock Entertainment, etc) are doing just fine. With other words, once the process - ensuring adequate quality - is streamlined, catalog expansion will be normalized.

Pro-B

Bringing a catalogue title to blu-ray is much more expensive and tedious than most people assume. The reason I've been given from minor distributors that have no plans to provide blu-ray, is that it is very expensive and time/effort-consuming compared to producing DVD's. It seems to me that a lot of people make the mistake of assuming that inevitable mass adoption automatically means that all catalogue titles are going to be re-released on blu. That may not be the case. There may be many titles for which the owners see no payoff in investing in adapting them to blu, unless maybe in the form of some low-quality large-compilation disc, like we've seen with some foreign catalogue collections on DVD.

[bt12483]

Originally Posted by ckenisell

Sounds like a bitter HD-DVD owner.

Confirmed.

Blu-Ray's Triumph Provides Mixed Blessings

Brian Dipert
EDN Senior Technical Editor

Apr 17 2008 11:41AM

In many of my NAB meetings this week, along with the general feeling on the show floor and in technical sessions, I've discerned a general sense of relief at the end of the blue laser format wars. Content owners now have a consistent format on which to distribute their material in the retail channel, and consumers now have a consistent media on which to archive their personally camcorder-captured and computer-authored masterpieces. The timing is in a sense perfect, too, because with the NTSC shutoff less than a year away, a large population of consumers are going to be exposed to ATSC-delivered high-definition video for the first time, which will also cultivate desire on their part for high-resolution optical disc-housed content.

Blockbuster's now rolling out Blu-ray format support nationwide in its brick-and-mortar stores. Sony's just rolled out DTS-HD Master Audio format support in the PlayStation 3, further justifying the platform I've long recommended as the ideal Blu-ray player (although those of us with highly desireable first-generation 60 GByte systems might have a problem if our units ever need to be replaced). Ironically, Microsoft released a firmware update (presumably the last) a few weeks ago for its Xbox 360 HD DVD Player add-on, too. Speaking of HD DVD, read-only optical drives for PCs are pretty cheap nowadays (at least until inventory's depleted, that is). And for those of you who've already acquired HD DVD gear, Best Buy just joined a list of retailers (also including folks like Amazon and Wal-mart) who are compensating customers that picked the 'wrong' format.

On that 'wrong format' note, though, I'll again admit to still feeling some degree of remorse that HD DVD didn't come out on top, an emotion based solely on feature-versus-feature comparisons i.e. not on any particular vendor affinity or aversion. [EDIT: suuuuuuure] From the very beginning, all HD DVD players supported features that the vast majority of Blu-ray players still don't implement; built-in Ethernet ports for easy upgrades and web-based content augmentation, rich user interface interactivity, etc. Admittedly, this homogeny was easier for the HD DVD camp to achieve, because it contained a smaller number of hardware and software standards-development participants. ...

http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums...s&daysprune=-1

You could tell anyway. His article from the OP touches on each of the prerequisite talking points from an HD DVD supporter.

Whining about The 5th Element? Check.
Whining about Profile 1.0/1.1 players? Check.
Talking about CBHD as some HD DVD resurrection? Check.
Citing Steve Jobs "bag of hurt" comment? Check.
...and more...

The dude hits all the major points, and thus absolutely fits the profile of a bitter HD DVD supporter. Still bitter....2 years later.

[ckenisell]

Originally Posted by bt12483

Confirmed.


http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums...s&daysprune=-1

You could tell anyway. His article from the OP touches on each of the prerequisite talking points from an HD DVD supporter.

Whining about The 5th Element? Check.
Whining about Profile 1.0/1.1 players? Check.
Talking about CBHD as some HD DVD resurrection? Check.
Citing Steve Jobs "bag of hurt" comment? Check.
...and more...

The dude hits all the major points, and thus absolutely fits the profile of a bitter HD DVD supporter. Still bitter....2 years later.

Ha ha. PWNED!!!

[pro-bassoonist]

Originally Posted by mjbethancourt

Bringing a catalogue title to blu-ray is much more expensive and tedious than most people assume. The reason I've been given from minor distributors that have no plans to provide blu-ray, is that it is very expensive and time/effort-consuming compared to producing DVD's. It seems to me that a lot of people make the mistake of assuming that inevitable mass adoption automatically means that all catalogue titles are going to be re-released on blu. That may not be the case. There may be many titles for which the owners see no payoff in investing in adapting them to blu, unless maybe in the form of some low-quality large-compilation disc, like we've seen with some foreign catalogue collections on DVD.

Hello,

I agree wholeheartedly with your observation.

1. It is a fact that releasing on Blu-ray is more expensive than releasing on SDVD, which is why some small distributors have been reluctant to upload their catalogs or bring new releases.

2. You are right with your observation about expectations as well - but, again, most of the people who have argued that the SDVD catalog has to be replicated by Blu-ray for the format to become mass, do not understand how the market functions. The opposite is already happening -- Blu-ray is growing and there are catalog releases that are available only on Blu-ray (Profound Desires of the Gods).

3. Finally, there are many catalog titles on SDVD that will never make it on Blu-ray simply because there will be no market for them; for many there was hardly a market even during SDVD's best times. The overwhelming majority of the catalogs controlled by companies such as Facets Video, VCI, Vanguard, Mya Communication, etc., are simply extremely difficult to sell. Yet, this does not mean that Blu-ray will not be a dominant format and SDVD phased out. 10 to 15% of low-end SDVDs could always be around.

Pro-B

[mjbethancourt]

Originally Posted by bt12483

Confirmed.


http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums...s&daysprune=-1

You could tell anyway. His article from the OP touches on each of the prerequisite talking points from an HD DVD supporter.

Whining about The 5th Element? Check.
Whining about Profile 1.0/1.1 players? Check.
Talking about CBHD as some HD DVD resurrection? Check.
Citing Steve Jobs "bag of hurt" comment? Check.
...and more...

The dude hits all the major points, and thus absolutely fits the profile of a bitter HD DVD supporter. Still bitter....2 years later.

... and he should be bitter. It's very embarrassing for any print-journalist to make a public commitment to such a bone-headed cause as that of HD-DVD. To anybody with a grasp of the facts, HD-DVD was a dud from the beginning. I haven't seen a defense of it yet that didn't show an obvious touch of someone distorting the facts to compensate for feelings of shame.