200 GB Blu-ray's on the way

[hmurchison]

Convenience is great but having everything on one disc means that a loss or destruction of one disc equals the whole series being gone.

Frankly I don't mind that EE verisons of LotR are 4-Discs. I don't mind seeing series that have multiple discs and packaging. Less chance that I lose or damage my discs. Less chance that a glitch in the disc prevents me from viewing other content.

Next is the feasibility of mass producing 200GB 8-layer discs. I'm a wee bit skeptical considering that they are struggling to mass produce DL discs. Sure they'll eventually get the process down but the next hurdle will be QL discs which come with yet another hurdle to jump and then OL discs.

Will my player accept movies in this format? Despite the seemingly incessant "hey look at us we have 1 trillion byte discs working in the lab" PR from some BDA media manf no one has told us if there's even a possibility of our players supporting these discs in the future.

We're up against basic physics here...as the lasers light passes through each layer it changes ever so slightly meaning the tolerances get tighter and tighter. The process alone to bond 8 individual layers together and keep them seamless must be very costly as well.

I think the safe bet is to move towards a higher efficiency codec over MPEG2 and perfect the 50GB discs so that they yield very well. There aren't many series that couldn't be handled nicely across some 50GB discs using AVC.

[theknub]

if i remember correctly, i read something after writing my previous post that the standard for movies is to only be DL. if true, this whole convo only applies to computer products...

as for your reply hmurchison, you keep bringing up new points. i really don't care if a video comes on two (LOTR EE comes on two, extras are on the other two). blow my socks off and i'll purchase one or two or five discs. just keep the movie itself to no more than two.

as for losing that lone disc, you lose the series yes. but if you lose one disc of the LOTR EE or whatever it is, you lose half the movie. whether you have one disc or 12, the possibility exists that you lose a portion of your material. so, i really don't see that as a valid argument. if it works, it is great. if you lose something, have a glitch, or whatever you still are missing something. so whichever way, it all boils down to being careful with your things.

as for the rest of your points, refer to my previous comments and correct me if what i read is not true...

[BTBuck1]

Originally Posted by theknub

, it all boils down to being careful with your things.

Aint that the truth. I think that as Uber as we all obviously are to be members of a "Blu Ray" forum, we're all probably pretty anal about or "stuf" too. I doubt many if any of us own scratched, lost or Partial collections. just not in our nature =)

[hmurchison]

as for losing that lone disc, you lose the series yes. but if you lose one disc of the LOTR EE or whatever it is, you lose half the movie. whether you have one disc or 12, the possibility exists that you lose a portion of your material. so, i really don't see that as a valid argument. if it works, it is great. if you lose something, have a glitch, or whatever you still are missing something. so whichever way, it all boils down to being careful with your things.

Yes the possibility is that I lose a portion of the disc but the point you've glossed over is that with everything on one disc I lose %100 of my movie or series versus half or a portions of a series spanning multiple discs. High Availability applies to everything in life. One of anything is not HA.

While being careful with your things is fine you cannot prevent a corrupt disc. The studio will replace bad discs but in a series I think I'd rather send one disc back and have access to other discs.

200GB discs simply do not make sense. They'll likely cost 4x the cost of 50GB. I'm just trying to be real. DVD-18 exists be few studios choose it. Sometimes high density sounds cool on paper but in practice leave a lot to be desired.

[theknub]

Originally Posted by hmurchison

Yes the possibility is that I lose a portion of the disc but the point you've glossed over is that with everything on one disc I lose %100 of my movie or series versus half or a portions of a series spanning multiple discs. High Availability applies to everything in life. One of anything is not HA.

While being careful with your things is fine you cannot prevent a corrupt disc. The studio will replace bad discs but in a series I think I'd rather send one disc back and have access to other discs.

200GB discs simply do not make sense. They'll likely cost 4x the cost of 50GB. I'm just trying to be real. DVD-18 exists be few studios choose it. Sometimes high density sounds cool on paper but in practice leave a lot to be desired.

i glossed over it because i don't see it as a valid point. while i have never had an issue with a defective disc, i assume that the studio will either replace or you can return/exchange at the store. given that, if there is a problem, that minimizes most issues. my next question: if hd-dvd fits 1/2 a season onto two discs, would you be happier than BR having everything on one disc? after all, there are fewer discs now and this isn't HA. so really, would you rather keep the DVD format around since there is greater HA?

as for price, as long as price isn't passed on to john q consumer, who really cares. let the studios take on that cost. if i pay $5 more to have it in HD perfect. again, as long as cost isn't passed on to me, who cares.

[Shadowself]

Originally Posted by hmurchison

Yes the possibility is that I lose a portion of the disc but the point you've glossed over is that with everything on one disc I lose %100 of my movie or series versus half or a portions of a series spanning multiple discs. High Availability applies to everything in life. One of anything is not HA.

And you have multiple copies of all your DVD movies now?

For those paranoid among us (and aren't most of us?) this is what "managed copy" is all about!

Originally Posted by hmurchison

200GB discs simply do not make sense. They'll likely cost 4x the cost of 50GB. I'm just trying to be real. DVD-18 exists be few studios choose it. Sometimes high density sounds cool on paper but in practice leave a lot to be desired.

While 200GB disks might not make sense to you there is absolutely no way that 200GB disks will be 4x the cost of 50GB disks, once they get into full production (assuming they do before another format comes along -- remember the claims of 17GB DVDs which never got into what I would call full production). Since 25GB disks are what are shipping now are you trying to claim that 50GB versions shipping in a few months will be twice as expensive? You claim of 4x the price of 50GB does not make sense.

[hmurchison]

My claims that 200GB discs could be 4x the price of 50GB discs is very legit. I could be wrong or I could be right.

The facts though are that with each layer added the difficulty of correctly focusing the laser onto that next layer increases. Sony is having an issue with 50GB but they'll solve if soon but the battle again begins with 4 layers.

It's like the struggles that the microprocessor industry had moving from 130Nm fabrication to 90nm. They eventually licked it but there were some growing pains. If yields and demand are low for 200GB discs then they can indeed cost 4x of what 50GB offers.

Is my logic not sane?

[theknub]

Originally Posted by hmurchison

My claims that 200GB discs could be 4x the price of 50GB discs is very legit. I could be wrong or I could be right.

The facts though are that with each layer added the difficulty of correctly focusing the laser onto that next layer increases. Sony is having an issue with 50GB but they'll solve if soon but the battle again begins with 4 layers.

It's like the struggles that the microprocessor industry had moving from 130Nm fabrication to 90nm. They eventually licked it but there were some growing pains. If yields and demand are low for 200GB discs then they can indeed cost 4x of what 50GB offers.

Is my logic not sane?

i don't think that logic is flawed. i think what is being said is that once they are in full production, they won't cost 4x the price.

after all, short term the cost is an issue for the manufacturer. however, over the long haul, it will not be.

of course, based on the "could be" scenario, they might be cheaper than 50gb discs

[thunderhawk]

Originally Posted by theknub

i don't think that logic is flawed. i think what is being said is that once they are in full production, they won't cost 4x the price.

From what I see, DVD DL discs are still expensive in my eyes.
And, after so many years of mass production already, the price hasn't dropped for the majority of the consumers to buy a DL disc instead of 2 SL discs for their data...
I think hmurchison is fairly right about what he says. 4x probably won't be the case, but I think there will be a lot of people that'll buy 4x 50 GB discs to burn 200 GB when 200 GB discs will have entered the mass production stage.

[Blackraven]

I do admit that hmurchison is right on the demand for 200 GB won't be high enough until after 2008.

Still, I don't want having my movie being split into multiple discs. Same goes for the games I want to play (unless they are already in the HDD or if it comes with No-CD crack)

In the end, I'm not in favor of having multiple discs.

[Psiweaver]

yeah multiple discs are a pain in the ass espeically if you have to change them while playing.

[Illicious]

What i dont understand is how can a blu-ray player handle playing many blu-ray disks past layer 3 let alone 8 layers?
I think for a disk with layers to be read, the laser must become a lil more powerful or hotter to read the other layers. Something like that.

But, an entire series on one disk would be cool but may be a little unstable.

My PS2's laser was replaced like 3 times after so many DVDs and hours of use. Have a dead dvd player that has had it too.
I cant imagine how a multiple layered blu-ray disk would do to a player let alone my new PS3.

I never see a discussion on the stress effects of extended use of disks on a system or player but i know it does develop problems over time.

Also, i have many times asked around for years but never heard of 2 head laser player before. Sort of like the VCR but for video disks to prolong the player's life or reduce possible future disk read errors. Possibly reduce the stress of each laser maybe.

[Riverside666]

http://cgi.ebay.com/Panasonic-Blu-Ra...QQcmdZViewItem