Upcoming weeks, what do you predict?

[HeavyHitter]

Master of Horrors is listed as neutral for HD DVD - is this a typo? I thought it was an Anchor Bay release.

[Slapper]

Originally Posted by Icemage

Blu-ray will probably lose week 42 due to Transformers. Possibly week 43 as well due to residual sales. All other weeks should see Blu-ray winning, however.

I agree with you. I said a couple of weeks back that the week of October 16th would be 44/56 - HD-DVD wins. I got a bit of flak from people here for saying that HD-DVD would win that week. I guess I'm not wearing my Blu-colored glasses as much as some of the other folks here. My bad.

The following week (October 23rd) should be fairly close due to Transformers legs, but I still think Blu will pull out the win due to Meet the Robinsons and Mr. Brooks. Should be mid-to-high 50s. I'll predict 58/42 for the week of October 23rd.

The week of Spidey 3 should be around 80/20 - Blu for the win. I'll make my prediction as we get closer and we see what kind of advertising this release gets. From November on, we should be seeing Blu over 70% week after week, breaking 80% on Nov 6th and Nov. 20th. Dec 4th we should see really big numbers for Blu, close to 85% - IMO this will be the biggest week for Blu as far as Nielsen comparisons. The week of Nov. 13th with the release of Shrek 3 on HD-DVD I will still say Blu wins that week in the 70 percentile as it will be going up against Close Encounters, Prison Break, and I, Robot. Those three titles should make Shrek 3 impact on the Nielsens a wash.

I predict the week of Dec 11th - the release of Harry Potter films to hi-def - to be the largest quantity disc sales week for both Blu-ray and HD-DVD for the year. I hope we can get some actual quantity sales data for that week...

My track record has been pretty good as far as predicting Nielsen numbers so barring any unforeseen delays/cancellations/announcements I stand by these numbers.

[GreenScar]

We're all just going to have to buy Invincible.

wouldn't that be something... Invincible on BD beats Transformers on HDUD

[GreenScar]

Originally Posted by Slapper

I predict the week of Dec 11th - the release of Harry Potter films to hi-def - to be the largest quantity disc sales week for both Blu-ray and HD-DVD for the year. I hope we can get some actual quantity sales data for that week...

Will they count each unit of The Harry Potter collection sold as 5?

[Uxi]

Only chance of that is Transformers. I think it will be somewhere around 55-45 Blu-ray lead.

If I do get Transformers it most likely won't be for 3 or 4 weeks, at least, as I've been backing up on some desired Blu-ray titles and think I'll be buying them on week 42.

[Anthony P]

Neilsen counts SKUs so a box set of 5, 10 or 100 movies will count as 1

[Mericalis]

Originally Posted by jasonbird

We're all just going to have to buy Invincible.

Um, you mean The Invisible?

[Blubaru]

It seems that HD-DVD is catching on faster than Blu-ray these days.

Blu-ray will probably win every week of the year but it will only get 55-65(even with the stronger releases)

[pro-bassoonist]

Originally Posted by bhampton

Don't get me wrong the red army has planned to buy a copy of this for everyone they know but I'm going crazy buying Blu that week in hopes we keep the current winning streak alive.
-Brian

So am I and everyone else should. October 16th is the date when I will be buying between 8-10 Blu-Rays with 90% of them being catalog titles.

Pro-B

[w_tanoto]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

Neilsen counts SKUs so a box set of 5, 10 or 100 movies will count as 1

that sucks..... So, buying boxsets is not the best way to support BD. I haven't but plan to buy HP box set

[richard lichtenfelt]

I think that the week of Transformers we will see the ratings transformed to give hd-dvd about a 54% to 46% margin for that week. I expect blu-ray to win every other week with an avg. margin of victory around 74% to 26%.
It's really staggering how many more good movies are coming to blu-ray this holiday season. There is only one hd-dvd exclusive that I would be interested in (Inside Man). While the # of blu-ray exclusives that I plan on getting is at least 7.

[bdrex28]

The only HD-DVD exclusives I'd purchase are:

Top Gun
Transformers
The Jack Ryan Collection


There are MANY on Blu I'll be purchasing:

[w_tanoto]

Originally Posted by richard lichtenfelt

I think that the week of Transformers we will see the ratings transformed to give hd-dvd about a 54% to 46% margin for that week. I expect blu-ray to win every other week with an avg. margin of victory around 74% to 26%.
It's really staggering how many more good movies are coming to blu-ray this holiday season. There is only one hd-dvd exclusive that I would be interested in (Inside Man). While the # of blu-ray exclusives that I plan on getting is at least 7.

exactly my thought... That transformer week will be its last momentum of the year for HD DVD. after that BD rules by large margin (well, maybe except a week after transformers).

[HK-48]

The only upcoming movies that I would buy if I had a HD DVD player would be Transformers and The Bourne Ultimatum. The Paramount Deal didn't bother me that much, because all Paramount has this year to worry about is Transformers. Shrek the Third sucked, Ratatouille and Cars were much better.

[bhampton]

So,

I wonder if we setup a buy date for the transformers week (mabe on the Wednesday just to be sure it's counted in the correct week.)

-Would we still hold onto the nearly year long winning streak
-Will users even accept the idea of another buy-date or have they had enough

I haven't seen the transformers. I'm not certain it can undo the 60/40 lead all by itself. Surely some people will be picking up Dracula, The Fly, Halloween, Spiderman, RoSS, and all kinds of stuff.

If we kept the lead during the week of transformers I think most die hard HD DUD supporters would pack it up and fold the flags. It would be insult to injury.

I suppose I can hope the $399 PS3 is annouced for that week and they count the pack in. ... But I have no idea of when that will happen. Maybe they ought to count the pack in and include coupons for Blu Rays or have deals where you can buy the PS3 with some Blu Rays for a special price.

The way I see it. HD DUD-ers have a lot of eggs in the Transformers basket. I would love to see them diss-appointed with just how well it works out for them.

-Brian

[kknight]

MANY more movies I want on Blu-ray then HD-DVD the next few months. I don't think Transformers and Shrek 3 will be enough to close the gap.

[bhampton]

Another thing to consider...

The eproduct wars site shows the RoSS nearly tied with Transformers curently on Amazon. Doesn't that mean that sales are already be factor-ed in for those current graphs and pre-orders aren't going to be counted again on release day?

I guess I'm confused about those charts. Seems sales of both of those titles which haven't been released are already showing up in the data which should pad the affect of the actual release day.

-Brian

[joeorc]

Originally Posted by w_tanoto

i agree with that, but I am talking about titles that actually released the same week as transformer. I think though, Die hard will create residual sale on the week of transformer, as well as transformer will create residual sale of the week next to its release (but by this time, we already have something to counter it)

i think the standard DVD sales of transformers will so far over shadow the
HD DVD side that even in week 42. blu-ray will still lead in overall sales
thats my prediction on Transformers.

[Dave J]

Okay, here's my predictions based on your list above:

Week 40: 73:27
Week 41: 71:29
Week 42: 43:57
Week 43: 59:41
Week 44: 79:21
Week 45: 83:17

[bdrex28]

Originally Posted by joeorc

i think the standard DVD sales of transformers will so far over shadow the
HD DVD side that even in week 42. blu-ray will still lead in overall sales
thats my prediction on Transformers.

I'd agree with that. I don't think Transformers in itself will cause someone to buy an HD-DVD player.

There are only a few movies that would do that for either player imo, Star Wars series, LOTR series, etc.

Not a single movie, but I do think a great trilogy or series of movies could push someone into purchasing.

Personally, I'd like to see something where Sony puts out a free blu-ray player or say a $150 coupon off a blu-ray player if you buy one of their NEW Tv's.

I have the new 60A3000 and it's awesome and I know the reviewers are VERY happy with it.

Not to mention you still have the XBR4's and the XBR5's coming out in the first quarter of 2008.