All but over for HDDVD...

[Psiweaver]

yeah what do we ever contribute.

[georgir]

the outcome is pretty obvious now, hddvd won't be sold by next christmas.
its a pity for all those 7500 individuals that decided to be early adopters though. i hope toshiba manages to do the right thing for them atleast.

i guess its not unreasonable to assume microsoft payed toshiba a good chunk of money to support the continuation of the war - say, 2 millions, to cover the losses on hardware and to have some pocket change for the toshiba people
now, toshiba can either ask for more money so they make more players, or ask for more money so they can buy all these players back. i don't think microsoft could refuse the "offer", faced with the possibility that toshiba discloses the specific details of microsoft's dirty politics.

The above conspiracy theory is a joke, you know. Well, kinda. I wouldn't be surprised that microsoft was indeed funding toshiba for their campaign, but the proposed happy end can never happen.

[BTBuck1]

Originally Posted by georgir

the outcome is pretty obvious now, hddvd won't be sold by next christmas.
its a pity for all those 7500 individuals that decided to be early adopters though. i hope toshiba manages to do the right thing for them atleast.

i guess its not unreasonable to assume microsoft payed toshiba a good chunk of money to support the continuation of the war - say, 2 millions, to cover the losses on hardware and to have some pocket change for the toshiba people
now, toshiba can either ask for more money so they make more players, or ask for more money so they can buy all these players back. i don't think microsoft could refuse the "offer", faced with the possibility that toshiba discloses the specific details of microsoft's dirty politics.

The above conspiracy theory is a joke, you know. Well, kinda. I wouldn't be surprised that microsoft was indeed funding toshiba for their campaign, but the proposed happy end can never happen.

Random.

[AV_Integrated]

Originally Posted by Brian@BBY

Random.

Definitely random - and far to premature. It is not all but over for Toshiba as long as the quality of Blu-ray is abysmal. The movies have got to get reviewed and praised at LEAST at HD-DVD levels before Blu-ray is likely to get serious momentum against HD-DVD.

Of course the additional half dozen players from companies like Sony, Pioneer, and Panasonic being thrown into the mix will help Blu-ray a great deal. But, not if quality isn't there and the product is continually panned by the press. The HD-DVD add-on for X360 may help the format as well. The real key though would be if a major player or two would join Toshiba in production - or come out with a dual format player.

Way to early to make any claims of either format winning. It happens all the time at AVS Forum and it shouldn't be happenning here. By the end of this holiday season we likely can all get a real first look at the state of HD-DVD vs. Blu-ray. I do believe Blu-ray has the support necessary to dominate - but M$ and the quality HD-DVD has delivered on should not be ignored.

[hmurchison]

Originally Posted by georgir

the outcome is pretty obvious now, hddvd won't be sold by next christmas.
its a pity for all those 7500 individuals that decided to be early adopters though. i hope toshiba manages to do the right thing for them atleast.

i guess its not unreasonable to assume microsoft payed toshiba a good chunk of money to support the continuation of the war - say, 2 millions, to cover the losses on hardware and to have some pocket change for the toshiba people
now, toshiba can either ask for more money so they make more players, or ask for more money so they can buy all these players back. i don't think microsoft could refuse the "offer", faced with the possibility that toshiba discloses the specific details of microsoft's dirty politics.

The above conspiracy theory is a joke, you know. Well, kinda. I wouldn't be surprised that microsoft was indeed funding toshiba for their campaign, but the proposed happy end can never happen.

There are people with severe mental disorder that have more logic that what was displayed in this post. I'm speechless.

That is not meant as a slam on you i'm just saying that your reasoning is a wee bit in La La Land. HD DVD will be sold for Xmas 2008. I'd bet money on it.

Blu-Ray may win this war and if they do we ALL win because the fact that they had to beat a game HD DVD means we have the format that we need for a decade. Before IPTV takes over.

[BTBuck1]

Originally Posted by AV_Integrated

Way to early to make any claims of either format winning. It happens all the time at AVS Forum and it shouldn't be happenning here. By the end of this holiday season we likely can all get a real first look at the state of HD-DVD vs. Blu-ray. I do believe Blu-ray has the support necessary to dominate - but M$ and the quality HD-DVD has delivered on should not be ignored.

The only thing i can say is...HDDVD has proven it's worth...But have they spent their load? I see no future (aside from a 360 add on drive) But Blu-Ray has so much ahead as if they haven't even started. Players & recorders from Panny, Sony, Philips, Sharp, LG, Pioneer and countless studios dropping movies at incredible rates this fall. If it's going to be a war, Toshiba is going to need more than the (maybe) 20,000 units they have sold to date. They had better get more companies designing/manufacturing playersout there, WAY more advertising & more than just Warner & Uni putting out titles. Some Killer apps would help them at a time like this, IE Matrix Box set, Jurrasic etc.

[ProvenFlipper]

HD-DVD launched three months ahead of blu-ray and they only have 2 times the amount of titles on the shelves? This coupled with no other players on the horzion doesn't look too great for Toshiba. I'm not saying that blu-ray has the war in the bag, but it's pretty clear that if the current trends stay true that the future looks rather bleak for HD-DVD. I hope that HD-DVD does stay around for awhile to make the blu-ray camp feel the fire under their bottoms and get us better transfers and DL discs. Otherwise, they might get comfortable and continue to feed us sub-par releases and leave us wanting more.

Has anybody actually seen the HD-DVD add-on for the X360? How's the quality? Does it offer any hardware help for the 360 or is it relying on the architechture of the 360 to do all of the video and audio processing? All of these questions factor into the success of the X360 add-on. Past trends have also shown that devices sold as add-ons don't draw any where near the userbase that a bundled product does. Look at the PS2 hard drive for instance, or Nintendo DD anyone?? Yes, we may be comparing apples to oranges, but there are some similarites indeed. Me personally, even if I was remotely interested in purchasing a HD-DVD player, would not spend $200+ on an add-on, yet I would put the money towards a standalone player that should be superior in everyway.

[marzetta7]

Originally Posted by ProvenFlipper

HD-DVD launched three months ahead of blu-ray and they only have 2 times the amount of titles on the shelves? This coupled with no other players on the horzion doesn't look too great for Toshiba. I'm not saying that blu-ray has the war in the bag, but it's pretty clear that if the current trends stay true that the future looks rather bleak for HD-DVD. I hope that HD-DVD does stay around for awhile to make the blu-ray camp feel the fire under their bottoms and get us better transfers and DL discs. Otherwise, they might get comfortable and continue to feed us sub-par releases and leave us wanting more.

Has anybody actually seen the HD-DVD add-on for the X360? How's the quality? Does it offer any hardware help for the 360 or is it relying on the architechture of the 360 to do all of the video and audio processing? All of these questions factor into the success of the X360 add-on. Past trends have also shown that devices sold as add-ons don't draw any where near the userbase that a bundled product does. Look at the PS2 hard drive for instance, or Nintendo DD anyone?? Yes, we may be comparing apples to oranges, but there are some similarites indeed. Me personally, even if I was remotely interested in purchasing a HD-DVD player, would not spend $200+ on an add-on, yet I would put the money towards a standalone player that should be superior in everyway.

Well, from what I've read, the HD DVD add-on will only be capable of 720P and will only be able to be used for movies and not HD DVD gaming. So, in essence, I think it is of poor quality, and will falter just like add-ons of the past.

[hmurchison]

HD-DVD launched three months ahead of blu-ray and they only have 2 times the amount of titles on the shelves? This coupled with no other players on the horzion doesn't look too great for Toshiba. I'm not saying that blu-ray has the war in the bag, but it's pretty clear that if the current trends stay true that the future looks rather bleak for HD-DVD. I hope that HD-DVD does stay around for awhile to make the blu-ray camp feel the fire under their bottoms and get us better transfers and DL discs. Otherwise, they might get comfortable and continue to feed us sub-par releases and leave us wanting more.

I don't think you want current "trends" to continue. HD DVD clearly has a better looking overall set of movies. They're shipping DL discs and using nextgen codecs. Blu-Ray is not. I don't know how you get to the assumption of a "bleak" future based on the info. In fact the lack of quality of the first BD player and movies has caused many who were waiting to go ahead and buy an HD DVD player and you know what? They're happy. Frankly I don't care who wins as long as they earn it by competing hard for my business.

The 720p support of the HD DVD add on is pretty poor. But I guess if they can hit a sub $200 pricepoint it's a worthy addition. 720P is still a %50 improvement in vertical resolution.

[BTBuck1]

Originally Posted by hmurchison

I don't think you want current "trends" to continue. HD DVD clearly has a better looking overall set of movies. They're shipping DL discs and using nextgen codecs. Blu-Ray is not.

IMO, until someone proves mpeg2 & single layer are a factor in SOME not all BR movies being of less than stellar quality, this is just speculation. I don't blame the Codec or the disc space because some of the BR movies look as good as the best HDDVD has to offer, the ones that don't look so good, are the same movies that didn't look so good on DVD which IMO means the source material wasn't that good.

I don't know how you get to the assumption of a "bleak" future based on the info.

I would base a bleak future on what they've done so far which IMO is nothing, shipped maybe 20,000 units WORLDWIDE in 3 months, and managed only about 25 movies in 3 months? with no future players announced and only MS talking anything HD beside Toshiba...that in IMO is something of a bleak future.

In fact the lack of quality of the first BD player and movies

not all movies have less than stellar Quality, matter of fact only 3 do and they are all an improvement over their DVD counterpart IE, xXx..TFE...HOFD. Nobody has proven the player to be at fault, as it plays all the other movies just fine. And until another player is released and those same "Lack of Quality" 3 movies prove to then still be of lesser PQ than the rest of the BR movies out. Then will we see people retracting their statements on the samsung being a poor player? only time will tell.

has caused many who were waiting to go ahead and buy an HD DVD player and you know what? They're happy. Frankly I don't care who wins as long as they earn it by competing hard for my business.

I wouldn't say Many maybe a handful. Because if B&M's are still sold out. Which many are (we've received only 3 units since launch) & major B&M's like Target, Walmart & Circuit City don't carry HDDVD in their stores...then were are they getting them? a few online stores with minimal stock also? To say Many is a bit far fetched, unless you concider Many probably a thousand or (if that) so which in the scope of things isn't even worth talking about. Until Toshiba gets more Companies manufacturing players (non are scheduled) or they miracle some way of ramping up production this is gonna be a Titanic all over again (coulda been great but sank on it's maiden voyage). As for them being happy...as we all know, happiness is short lived, I'd be anxious to see the looks on their faces in the comming months when the Blu-Ray movie selection doubles & tripples in size next to the HDDVD selections, and when you walk into Best Buy and see 4-5 players from key CE manufacturers sitting on the shelf lookin all High tech (because all of the BR players look built in 06 not 86') next to an antiquated looking Toshiba HDDVD player. I think then (and this is just around the corner) you will see the Laugh now, Cry later tatooed on the foreheads of many HDDVD adopters. But they're a pridefull bunch and will never admit it.

The 720p support of the HD DVD add on is pretty poor. But I guess if they can hit a sub $200 pricepoint it's a worthy addition. 720P is still a %50 improvement in vertical resolution.

I think they're going to have to come in under $199 like say $179 or $159 to gain any real time exposure from this. Hell as sour as I am on HDDVD now, even i'd probably try it out for $159.

[JTK]

Repeat: Many D-VHS tapes look amazing to this day and they are MPEG2.

Originally Posted by hmurchison

There are people with severe mental disorder that have more logic that what was displayed in this post. I'm speechless.

Get over yourself.

[hmurchison]

Hey if Blu-Ray was $499 and SOME movies looked poor I'd not spend too much time complaining. However it currently is $999 and I expect most movies to look good. I shouldn't have to purchase newer titles to look good. Granted T1/2 don't seem to have that many complaints so maybe there's hope.

I would base a bleak future on what they've done so far which IMO is nothing, shipped maybe 20,000 units WORLDWIDE in 3 months, and managed only about 25 movies in 3 months? with no future players announced and only MS talking anything HD beside Toshiba...that in IMO is something of a bleak future.

How many HD DVD players shipped is impossible to ascertain. Toshiba doesn't release sales figures. 30 movies have been reviewed by Highdefdigest alone. Plus we have HD DVD movies in Japan as well. The number is closer to double. I'm not sure I'm going to fret over any new players being announced. With Blu-Ray I have lots of choices all at $1000. In a free market multiple vendors should equate to price competition. Why is that is missing in the BDA?


Ummm you can add Hitch and likely Ultraviolet to the list. UV reviews mentiond banding and other anomolies in the picture. Again this isn't a $500 player it's $1000. I find it a bit laughable that future of HD DVD is being called into question when non of you can state with really much empirical backup that Blu-Ray offers ANY picture superiority. Hell it's harder right now to even state that Blu-Ray is equivalent.

No I'd say more than a handful of people have purchased HD DVD players. AVS may be a small market but you can get a lock on the "vibe" and there are many people who've (wisely) decided to just enjoy some quality movies now. Many own and enjoy both players but I don't for once think that the poor start for Sammy/Blu-Ray hasn't tilted things back towards HD DVD. Sales of movies are good and people are happy. Sony and Pioneer down bow product until Sept and Oct. That's a lot of time for Toshiba to deal with their production problems and time for studios to get more movies out. Oh CC and Walmart in some markets do carry HD DVD. CC carries the RCA model.

Brian the picture you paint sounds so good. People will see the mass support for BD and open of their checkbook and get to writing. The rub is this. 5 $1000 mean nothing to the person with only $600 in their bank account and a desire for HD movies. I've been in sales going on 20 years..even with one player and perhaps a "slight" deficit of movies (because quite honestly HD DVD has enough of the larger studios) consumers will flock to that $499 product over the $1000 competitor. Come on this is Best Buy we're talking about. That's not a slight be a reality check. People are walking into BB to find good deals. They will go to your Magnolia stores when they want to spend a bit more cash.

My point isn't to counteract Blu-Ray but to just look at the overall big picture. Does Blu-Ray have advantages ..yup. But they must execute and do it well. To date they haven't executed as well as HD DVD. Toshiba gets lowered marks for not having production up to snuff but Sony and Pioneer have vexed me with their product delays and allowing %30 of new BD titles to have less than stellar quality. Here's my keys to success for either format.

1. Price trumps all- The victor has to be cheaper or at least have price parity. This war cannot be won with a product that is significantly more expensive.

2. Content- The platform that has the most content that consumers desire and easy access to said content has an advantage. BD looking good here.

3. Mindshare- What has the public heard about the format? What are their perceptions? This is key...word of mouth is the best advertising.

[hmurchison]

Originally Posted by JTK

Repeat: Many D-VHS tapes look amazing to this day and they are MPEG2.

Yes and the avg bitrate of DVHS MPEG2 is 25Mbps with peaks hitting over that. That's a little tough to hit on a SL25 GB disc comfortably. MPEG2 at high bitrates looks great. It's just that with VC-1 we don't have to crank up the birate'o'meter so much to keep the quality.

Get over yourself.

I have..a long time ago. But hey people want to read information that is as factual as the poster can provide. Blu-Ray is a great format but that doesn't mean the we have to result to misrepresentation to promote the format.

I'm not fighting for HD DVD or Blu-Ray really..I'm fighting for excellent and affordable HD movies for all of us. This is a case where I don't really need to choose a side but I do like provide different views on the subject based on my own experiences and ideas. If that conflicts with what another person believes in then by all means I want them to point out where my logic or premise is wrong. That's healthy and natural debate. I perhaps didn't follow this myself on the "mental disorder" quip. But I try

[JTK]

Originally Posted by hmurchison

I'm not fighting for HD DVD or Blu-Ray really..I'm fighting for excellent and affordable HD movies for all of us. This is a case where I don't really need to choose a side but I do like provide different views on the subject based on my own experiences and ideas. If that conflicts with what another person believes in then by all means I want them to point out where my logic or premise is wrong. That's healthy and natural debate.

I perhaps didn't follow this myself on the "mental disorder" quip. But I try

Not "perhaps." You did not.

[john_1958]

recently i purchased a hd-dvd combo movie 480p, 1080p popped it in my progressive dvd player and played it on my computer and cranked up the resolution mind you the 480p look good and clear but only slightly 3d at times.
Had to find out for myself then rely on some dumb salesperson.

as for blu-ray the players here are $1,299 did manage to see demo of bd showing some details like sweat and skin pores.
but i did buy ultraviolet in hopes of seeing it soon!and will continue to buy Blu-ray even though some movies cost $44. with tax

But what makes me laugh is when people buy and rent fullscreen movies

[georgir]

my mental disorder is not severe! take that back!
i would think that one would see text like this, at the very least when they quote it.

[hmurchison]

Originally Posted by georgir

my mental disorder is not severe! take that back!
i would think that one would see text like this, at the very least when they quote it.

Taken back.

But I'll my friend with a plate of crow for you Xmas 2007. Don't worry...I'll let you wash it down with your choice of wine. May I suggest "Red" Wine.

[BTBuck1]

Originally Posted by hmurchison

1. Price trumps all- The victor has to be cheaper or at least have price parity. This war cannot be won with a product that is significantly more expensive.

2. Content- The platform that has the most content that consumers desire and easy access to said content has an advantage. BD looking good here.

3. Mindshare- What has the public heard about the format? What are their perceptions? This is key...word of mouth is the best advertising.

well i read your whole post, but i'm not going to quote it all because 90% of it was the same thing you said the first time, which is opinionated and non factual. I will say this. none of the wal marts around here have HDDVD-players or movies. and CC only carries the RCA (nothing else) on their website, not in store. so lets look now to your part that i quoted,

1) I can agree with the Movies, they need to be competitive, no way is one company goign to be even a dollar more and win out. Players are a different story, and a year from now im betting Blu Ray players will be had at or around $500. Sony has even stated that these first players are of "Referance Quality" much in the same way their First to market DVD player was.

2) & 3) I can lump together here: I totally agree here, and on paper (which is what suggestive sellers at retailers will show), Blu Ray has the advantage on every technical spec & all the industry support to make themself look like the golden child on paper. Are they meeting and exceeding all expectations now? ofcorourse not, but neither is HDDVD and it's a long road ahead. Most customers don't look to internet forums and it's probably a good idea, there are so many fanboi's on one side or the other quoting misinformation and half truths i'd feal bad for an avg joe consumer trying to decide reading through 5 pages of "sony put spyware on my computer- BR SUCKS!" to find meaningful data.

So they will rely on major magazines or websites for feedback, and basically on the word from a non commission salesman to see what way to go. They still won't always get the truth there either. However, most websites that have reviewed the BR & HDDVD players pretty much call it a draw or only a slight lead in HDDVD's favor. And almost all say Blu-Ray has a very bright future ahead. Most still say nobody should jump right in now unless they have tons of cash to blow & gotta have it now.

[hmurchison]

Nice post Brian. Yup...facts seem to be the thing that we enthusiasts have in short supply. It'll be interesting to see how the battle plays out in 2007. By the end of the year I'll have both formats and hopefully a choice of some really good titles.

[Psiweaver]

As time goes on its my opinion that blu-ray will begin to change that draw/slight loss into a win simply based off the disc size.