Rant: Why manufacturers don't need to "give away" BD players

[gand41f]

Originally Posted by Elandyll

What I fail to understand is why would the HD DVD buyers, who could see this tactic being used by just opening their eyes, would condone it.

Well, if they are willing to open their eyes, they wouldn't be HD-DVD supporters. So there.

enjoy
gandalf

[Skyhawk]

Originally Posted by JadedRaverLA

After all, whether someone uses their PS3 for BD movies or not, there's virtually no chance of them completely foregoing the BD movie capabilities of the PS3 and then going out and buying an HD DVD player. It would make NO sense to do so.

The rule is that the format that makes it into the home first is much more likely to be the one adopted. Lets face it, a high percentage of PS3s are likely attached to standard TVs in little Johnny's bedroom, and that percentage probably will increase this Christmas with the price drop on the PS3/40.

It's a problem for those with families like myself to place the PS3 in the home theater or living room, as it soon will be taken over by the kids and their friends. But when the parents themselves are ready to dip into their first HDTV, they'll be most likely to buy into the HDM format that already plays in little Johnny's room so he can also watch those PIXAR movies over and over and over. The free movies included with the PS3 reinforce that strategy, which although brilliant, will a couple years (not months) to take effect as the J6Ps of the world slowly adopt HDTV.

Shooting your load by selling 100,000 obsolete HD DVD players for $98 means nothing in this "war", but was a marketing stunt by Toshiba that might piss consumers off that couldn't buy these players at that time due to supply issues. Now they have to pay $199. And how long can Toshiba even sustain that price? Can they do it for 2 million players? I doubt they'd make it up on movie sales the same way that Sony can make it up over game sales over the next decade.

[gand41f]

Originally Posted by Skyhawk

And how long can Toshiba even sustain that price?

Don't worry, there will be another firesale on HD-A3's when they miss the target again and Toshiba needs to clear the shelf space for HD-A4's.

enjoy
gandalf

[JadedRaverLA]

I normally don't bring back dead posts, but I wrote this rant late one night and then completely forgot about it. So, forgive me for bringing this thread back from the dead to respond to a few of the comments.

Originally Posted by welwynnick

Excellent post as always.

JadedRaver is one of the reasons I am a member of these forums.

Right from the outset I looked at how much we had spent on DVDs over the last ten years and compared that with players. It's a no-brainer: it's the discs themselves that matter, not the players - they come and go.

Thanks for the very kind words welwynnick, and everyone else who the responded. And your anecdote is completely accurate. And I've thought the same since the days of LD. It never bothered me that good players were a $1,000+... when you're paying over $100 for some "special editions" you're usually the type of consumer that's going to pay extra for the best possible quality player. The same was true at the beginning for DVD and the same is true now for Blu-ray. By slashing HD DVD player prices to the bone, they pushed 50,000 players out, well below cost, to people who aren't about to spend $25-35 per title at stores. Not the best business plan, in my opinion.

Originally Posted by BadAss

The BDA need to set a base line for pricing their players at no more that twice the price of the lowest priced HD-DVD player, which I think they are doing. If HD-DVD sets its base line at $199 then the BDA should be at $399.

But what Toshiba has done is give away 90,000 players over night and these sales seem to be reflecting in the software sales charts. What would have been 75:25 last week was only 65:35 and this is the measurement of what market share each format has.

A couple of things... the BDA has always sold their baseline players for roughly twice HD DVDs baseline (exclusing the nonsense $99 sale). HD DVD is doing $199, Blu-ray is doing $399 (with bonuses or for even less). I disagree about the sales being reflected. Blu-ray won the week basically 2:1. They did again this past week. And that's roughly the average for the year. This posturing that HD DVD fans are doing that they have some kind of momentum going is ridiculous. Sure, they're sales are growing, at approximately half the rate Blu-rays are... and that's how the 2:1 margin keeps sustaining itself.

Originally Posted by olarmy96

On the Warner point, sure they'll anger some HD-DVD supporters by going Blu-ray exclusive, but they would anger twice as many for going HD-DVD exclusive. Seems like an easy choice to me...

I agree, however, they have A LOT of friends on the HD DVD side, and a lot invested in the format. They may very well decide to keep waiting it out, so that they aren't viewed as the "bad guy" in the fall of HD DVD. Now, I've been hearing increasing "chatter" about them going Blu-ray exclusive, but there's still a very hardcore (and vocal) HD DVD element at Warner left over from Nickerson's reign, so speculation remains just that.

Originally Posted by Skyhawk

The rule is that the format that makes it into the home first is much more likely to be the one adopted. Lets face it, a high percentage of PS3s are likely attached to standard TVs in little Johnny's bedroom, and that percentage probably will increase this Christmas with the price drop on the PS3/40.

That is very true. Current software sales can give us an idea of how many people are using PS3's NOW for playing BDs, but the fact that there are SO MANY of them out there that potentially COULD be used for that purpose is something HD DVD fans tend to ignore. When the future is that bleak for your format, I suppose you tend to look at the short-term only. I know many people with PS3s, and all of the ones with HDTVs have at least a few BDs they've purchased. The ones without HDTVs (or those who definitely didn't want their kids gaming system in their home theatre) generally got their 5 free by mail, just because they're free, but are waiting till they get a new HDTV before they start to purchase BDs.

Originally Posted by gand41f

Don't worry, there will be another firesale on HD-A3's when they miss the target again and Toshiba needs to clear the shelf space for HD-A4's.

I wouldn't be so quick to assume there will be a fourth generation HD DVD line-up from Toshiba. They already gave up the high-end this generation (the A35 lacks the deinterlacing and scaling capabilities of the XA2 -- likely, why it didn't get named the XA3). They're playing to the low end now, and if that fails, there may not be enough reason to launch another generation.