Discussion: HD downloads are not a threat to Blu-ray

[sleazypig]

Originally Posted by Carmien

Do not believe the hype about HD downloads rendering the HD format war obselete. The sad reality is that the PR machines of those behind HD downloads are in full flow, taking advantage of a lack of champion. Critical realities are being ignored amidst ignorance and agenda, compounded by the illusion for many that what you read must be true.

Reality #1: The Quality

Picture quality simply will NOT be 1080p (comparable to Blu-Ray). The reality, hope for 720p (If XBOX Live is anything to go by) and very aggressive compression of downloaded files. If you think those weird little coloured boxes in your cable movie look dodgy, just wait til you download these HD Movies! That said, if you currently compare upscaled DVDs on HDTV with Blu-Ray then it's conceded that this reality won't apply to you - you're one of those customers ignorant of the quality differences that the HD downloading business is hoping will be the majority! In otherwords, they're banking on you paying more for less.

And if you think streaming (getting little pieces of the HD movie as you watch it) are going to fly just wait until the consumer realizes that their craving for instant gratification is not met through HD downloads. There will be a whole new meaning to the 6pm gridlock in your neighbourhood as everyone and their dog accesses the same 32 seats on that node.

And then there is the quality of audio. If you're lucky you'll see Dolby Digital 5.1 for the entry level surround sound experience. In 2-3 years time that'll be grossly super ceded by the audio quality that many home theatres will offer. However, audio quality is moot next to the obvious impact of inferior picture quality, and fewer people will care.

In short, HD Downloads will have serious quality issues. The reality - you'll likely experience something akin to a upscaled DVD to 1080p. It may impress those who've only experienced SDTV until that point but when HD Downloads are of lower quality than HD cable films even the most ignorant of consumers might start questioning what's going on. But just wait until the next 2 realities sink in and combine with #1...

Reality #2: The Pipe (or speed of your Internet)

Trying to compare HD movie downloads to Apple's iTune's business model is like comparing an apple to an orange. Yes, they're both tasty fruit crying out to be picked but the differences start there. HD movie films (even with the dubious quality for Reality number 1 above) will still be huge files when compared to the music file size currently being downloaded. Combine that with those people living close to you accessing your part of the Internet. Do you honestly believe things won't start to crawl?

Did you hear the recent news of a major US telco considering a pay-for-use Internet model? Flat fees will be a thing of the past. Business is realizing that film downloads have already begun. Just as Napster evolved into iTunes, so will the current bittorrent and other download vectors morph into the winning HD Download channel. But this time the rules are changing. The size of files will result in big network usage. And in turn those carrying the data to your box will charge you for it. The net result - you could end up paying for the movie AND the cost of downloading it.

But it gets worse. Even with 4G (wireless - WiMax or whatever format wins) and fibre-to-the-home (wireline) technology you'll see a potential of 3+ years before the carriers can roll out the network and a few more years before adoption hits. Until then, fibre to the home is only an option for major metropolis centres. And even then, the higher bandwidth users will still be paying a premium, since the fibre from the local node to the data centre, and consumption of backbone will still take network resources. In short, if you want to take up pipe you'll pay for it. And that's assuming you're in an area that a telco has chosen to lay Fibre to the Home down for.

If not, you're in an area with older cable technology (at cat5 or coax) from the node to the house. And from a phone line perspective, the Telco still needs to make a significant investment to go from ADSL 2+ upward. I suspect Telcos running an ADSL type roadmap will be contemplating fibre to the home as the next big jump. That'll cap at 100-600Mbps but will be something that evolves on a region by region basis, assuming you're in a market that shows promise. Oh, cross your fingers and hope you're in one of the early areas. This type of investment happens carefully, and some of you will be waiting years for access to it.

Does that sound like an ingredient for mass-demand to you? It doesn't to me, and I work in the Telco (TeleCommunications) industry.

Reality #3: The Collection

Data storage for a half-decent collection will be heinous in the short term. In the long term someone is going to have to innovate a media centre solution that's as simple as turning on your TV and has extremely fast restore capability for when the storage media fails. And don't think it won't - all HDD (Hard Disk Drive) media comes rated with Mean Time Between Failure. Some media centres will fail sooner, and those with their HD library will either be fumbling for backup media (a complication) or looking to download content again (which they're paying for - see reality #2), or worse, dealing with technical support in some our-sourcing country's technical support team to get the system working again (which most people likely won't have access to - unless they've paid even more for it).

There is no doubt that storage is getting cheaper, but it's not simple and stable enough to meet mass demand. Ironically, the safer choice would be to move from Hard Disk Drives to an optical storage medium (like Blu-Ray perhaps?). But that introduces multiple optical disks, which is just more complication. And personally, the less simple something gets the lower the demand will be. The masses really do like simplicity, cool and instant graitification when you think about it.

Unless the media centre is a truly stand-alone, elegant, easy to use system that picks itself up with minimal struggle you'll lose the masses. Even the PS3 (Sony's flagship foundation piece for the Home Entertainment system caps at 80GB. How many HD movies do you think that beast will hold today? Be prepared to be underwhelmed by the size of your library on this current/next-gen technology. Oh, adding on a larger Hard Drive is an additional complication that will NOT suit the preference for simplicity of the mass-demand market - unless you make it blindingly obvious and simple!

On the plus side, iTunes proved that the mass market will tolerate an intangible collection of music files on their player and computer.

Bringing the Realities Together

Consider the following recipe for disaster from the HD Download perspective that's being conveniently ignored:
- A product that's of clearly inferior quality in a post-digital switch world, where SDTV is a thing of the past
- Telco's still struggling to upgrade the most densely populated areas to Internet delivery of greater than 20Mbps to your door (that covers Internet, TV and phone)
- Rural and lower density areas PERHAPS seeing Internet delivery able to bring them an HD download in a reasonable time in less than 5-10 years
- The simple media centre still has NOT been designed because the entire delivery chain is so fragmented, and the underlying technology so complex that one standard will be impossible (and don't forget the competing HD download channels/standards)

I can't help look at those ingredients and see that the reality of HD downloads at a pace/demand that matches physical media is vapourware for at least 5 years. I also think the noise around HD downloads is a really white right now.

It's a new channel and the buzz-masters would love to drive news about it. Little of the press I've seen is considering the realities. But that's hardly surprising. The majority of consumers are not really aware of many of the realities, which I believe will result in the majority of consumers settling for HD downloads inferior in quality because they unfortunately don't know any better.

What I think is happening - potential HD download channels (such as Apple) would love to continue the distraction of a perceived format war. With Blu positioning for the win much sooner than expected the HD download camp has to move sooner than they would have liked. Funny how the timing of the upgrade to apple TV came a week after the Warner jump. MacWorld was slated but the cynic in me is not convinced that item HAD to be on the agenda before the shift in momentum for Blu. If I were a cynic - I'd say they've accelerated their roadmap and are trying to continue confusion in the market.

The thing is, this move is TOO aggressive. You won't get any realistic results for a minimum of 3-5 years. Studios may buy into it because they've got nothing to lose. They produce the file for the physical media and now have new channels such as AppleTV to acquire additional revenue (a new channel that can only get profit from that's unlikely to cannibalize their existing media channels). But this is not the same model as downloading a music track. The scales are hugely different.

I put this down to spin-masters trying to force a position. Ignore the hype. There's plenty of time for the HD format war to be decided before HD Downloads can really make a difference. Sure, it won't be as profound as DVD was. But then, I think that HD Downloads won't be as profound as itunes was either. The masses want instant gratification. I just can't see millions of people waiting hours to potentially pay more for an inferior quality product that is inferior to what they see in the shops to stick any time soon.

What you need to worry about is this people would rather steal movies off of a p2p site rather than pay. Thats why Dvd Audio and SACD didn't sell. Hell mp3s Don't even sound as good as regular cds. But nobody cares because people prefer stealing music. The same could happned to movies where somebody will prefer watching vhs quality downloads for free. People who give a dam about quality could be the ones left out in the cold thanks to the p2p theft sites.

[EricJ]

And then, there is the short, sweet reply:
http://www.penny-arcade.com/comic/2008/01/18

[Kayne314]

Some first hand experience.

We sell Apple Computers and peripherals at the store I where I work. I don't work in the computer department myself, but I do work in home theater next door.

The computer department manager "borrowed" on of our 40" Sony LCDs to set up the new and improved Apple TV, with "High def" rentals. He has some sort of retailer account set up for it.

He called me over to witness the download and movie quality.

The movie started right away (Ratatoullie), then halted after about a minute. It stayed frozen for about 2 minutes, then started again... then froze, then started, etcetera.

The manager finally decided to let the video catch-up and paused it until it was fully downloaded. It took about 3 hours before it was ready to go without interruption. When it finally played through, the quality was extremely pixelated and looked like a bad mpeg compression was used.

The final result: It looked WORSE than a regular DVD. The 40" 720p Sony showed off every single flaw in the crappy image. You've never seen Ratatoullie look so poor in PQ.

The end result: The computer manager unhooked the Apple TV from the Sony TV and is using it to demo music instead.

Real life downloads are not ready yet. Not by a long shot.

[EricJ]

Originally Posted by Kayne314

Some first hand experience.
The computer department manager "borrowed" on of our 40" Sony LCDs to set up the new and improved Apple TV, with "High def" rentals. He has some sort of retailer account set up for it.

I can't seem to find any info on iTunes Store listings to indicate that any of the rentals ARE "Hi-def"--
Except for the usual indicator, ie., that most of the available catalog titles--Cars, Ratatouille, Ronin, Blades of Glory, Team America, Simpsons Movie, etc.--just happened to sound awfully familiar*.

Is it now Steve's Law that all rental titles will be, ha-ha, "hi-def" as of this week even if not marked, or is it just not in place yet, and your Ratatouille just happened to be the same usual fit-only-for-iPods standard tripe we've been offered so far?
The files seem to be the same size as the old standard purchase-titles, and I don't think you can squeeze compression that far.

------
* - (Reason I asked is, we now have a few un-familiar titles on the rental list, like "Magnificent Seven", "Raising Arizona" and "Breakfast at Tiffany's", and I'm wondering whether we might be seeing some coming attractions...
And yeah, that's what I wondered a couple months ago with "Roger Rabbit" on Starz cable, and France got a nice surprise.)

[dadkins]

You'll have to point it out because I don't remember.
I remember saying that most will likely never be able because of the LACK of infrastructure.
I remember something about that some people will never have Verizon FiOS because of not being in a Verizon area(think SBC)
I also vaguely remember something about pointing out Paxio, maybe.

Downloading DVDs, sure!
Downloading 25-50GB HD, not happening!


This?
https://forum.blu-ray.com/showthread.php?t=14701&page=2

DVDs, sure!
HD video, not happening!

[Scorxpion]

I love Dan Ramer Article on dvdfile.com

link:

http://www.dvdfile.com/index.php?opt...k=view&id=6497

"The finest high definition experience available today and for the foreseeable future is on Blu-ray Disc."

[superdynamite]

HD Movie Downloads vs. Blu-Ray Movies
written by: Gregory Leone (Superdynamite)
See Here: original article

OK, lets' look at the "Movie Download vs. Movie Disc" subject a little closer. We will dissect it in a way that will allow us to try and determine the future of the digital HD Movie Download.

These are some of the Freedoms that I am able to enjoy because I own a Blu-ray player (Playstation 3) and Blu-ray Disc collection:

I watched my Blackhawk Down Blu-ray about 8X during this past year. I watched my Pan's Labyrinth Blu-ray 4X since it's release. I watched the Simpson's Movie on Christmas Night and then again last night, almost 4 weeks later, with my little cousin. I also let my brother borrow my 300 and 28 Weeks Later Blu-ray discs. My friend Mike let me borrow his Ghost Rider Blu-ray and I lent him my Casino Royale Blu-ray. I brought my TMNT Blu-ray to my friend Jay's house to see how it looked on his new Samsung DLP flat screen and PS3. It looked and sounded amazing. I bought Pathfinder on Blu-ray for $29.99, watched it, then sold it on eBay for $26.00 + $2.00 shipping.

Ok, that's what I've done with a few of my Blu-ray movies.



Now let's look at the advantages and disadvantages of the Digital HD Movie Download:
1. Does the HD Movie Download allow me the same freedoms in portability that the Blu-Ray Disc does? No. You can only view a Downloaded movie on the device that it was downloaded to.

2. Can I borrow and Lend downloaded movies with friends and family? No. You would have to lend or borrow the whole device or console that holds the download.

3. Can I watch a Downloaded Movie numerous times over the course of a Year or the course of a month for that matter? No. Digital Download Movies are only good for a predetermined term or limited length of time. Usually 24 hours.
For example, Microsoft offers Digital Movie Downloads on their XBoxLIVE (XBL) service. The Downloadable movies vary in price on the XBL service. Movie Downloads from XBoxLIVE can be viewed an unlimited amount of times for the first 24 hours. Plays after that period will cost the same as the initial download. The downloaded Movie files are in Windows Media VideoHD (aka;VC-1,WMVHD) format at 720p resolution, 6.8Mbps video with 5.1 surround sound. The average Movie download is 4 - 5gb.

4. Are Digital downloadable Movies available in Full HD, 1080p with lossless Audio? No. Not yet. There is no date for the availability of full resolution Downloads.

The only advantage or benefit, that I can see, in Downloading Movies would be, it saves you a trip to the store. If you are home sick, the weather is bad, it's after 10pm and all the Electronics stores are closed or you're just feeling a little bit lazy, downloading a movie is fine.
To me, downloading a Movie is no different than purchasing a movie from your Pay-Per-View service. In some cases Pay-Per-View might even have more of an advantage because you don't have to wait the download time and if you have TiVo you can watch it until you delete it. Pay-Per-View is also available in 1080i.




The DVD vs. VHS Comparison in relation to The Blu-ray vs. DVD Comparison:
Standard DVD replaced VHS, Blu-ray replaced DVD and Digital Downloads will replace Blu-ray, right? Wrong. Here is why:

While compiling information about a subject or subjects, in order to complete a proper hypothecation, you will need to make sure that the variables that you are using are in accordance with one another and can be related to one another.
So the question is, "Can we compare DVD's replacement of VHS with Blu-ray's replacement of Standard (STD) DVD?" The answer is No. DVD ultimately rendered the VHS Tape useless. Blu-ray is not replacing DVD or rendering the DVD format useless. Blu-ray is simply an expansion of DVD.

If you own a Full HD Home Theater with Blu-ray player, the Standard DVD format can and will be integrated into your Movie, Concert or VideoGame collection in some way. The standard DVD can not only be viewed using a Blu-ray player, but the STD DVD can be viewed at a higher resolution using a process that most Blu-ray players feature. This process is called upscaling.

VHS and DVD are in no way interchangeable, which was the reason for the subsequent discontinuation and elimination of VHS.
Not only are the STD DVD & VHS forms of media non-interchangeable with one another, but the gap in technology between DVD and VHS is far greater then the gap between Blu-ray and DVD. The reason there is such a large gap between DVD and VHS is that DVD is a completely different technology than VHS, where as Blu-ray evolved from DVD and is of the same technology.
Here's another way to look at the DVD vs. VHS Comparison in relation to The Blu-ray vs. DVD Comparison:
1.What came first, the chicken (Blu-ray) or the egg (DVD)?
2.What came first, the chicken (Blu-ray) or the Elephant (VHS)? You can't ask that question because it's not relative to what we need the answer for.

This is why "The DVD vs. VHS Comparison in relation to The Blu-ray vs. DVD Comparison" cannot be used to determine an answer to our question, which is, Will Digital Downloadable Movies replace Disc media?



The Downloadable Movie vs. Downloadable Music comparison:
I think this is where analysts and columnists make their biggest mistake when trying to evaluate the future of digital media.
You can not compare downloading movies with downloading music. A full catalog of Music does not require a large amount of Hard Drive space. One single HD Movie with 1080p resolution, 7.1 lossless Audio and Bonus Features could, in some cases, require 20gb to over 50gb of space depending on the movie. Just think of how much space you would need to retain a downloaded version of the Godfather Box set in Full HD.
Music Downloads are portable via an MP3 device such as the IPod. Downloadable Movie content is not portable. HiDef Home Theaters are not portable either. Music Downloads are permanent and do not incur future costs on the owner. Movie downloads have a limited viewing time.

As a consumer, I do not want to spend money on a movie that I am only able to view for a limited time. In that case, I might as well go to the movie theater and get my money's worth. I'd much rather order something from Pay-Per-View which I can TiVo. I want to watch my movies when & where I feel like watching them. I want to lend movies to my friends and family. I also want to borrow movies from my friends and family. To me, that is a small part of what makes owning a movie collection fun.

In my opinion, Movie Downloads is an option that is loaded with restrictions and costs to the consumer. Digital Movie Downloads, Pay-Per-View and Divx are more comparable to each other than Movie Downloads and Disc Media are to each other. For now, the Movie Download is a very long way from replacing Blu-disc/DVD media.

Movie Downloads have their place in the industry, but they will never take over as the industry standard. For now it's just another option to Pay-Per-View.

[dalejrfanfreak]

good article, i'll be using this when informing blu ray haters.

[Blu-ray Fanatic]

With HD movie downloads, you can only watch it on your PC monitor or whatever device you downloaded it from and can't bring it over to your friends house when you want to. For blu-ray movies that are in the disc, it has the portability advantage and lets you carry it where ever you wanna go.

[Blu-ray Fanatic]

Additionally, I hate watching movies on my monitor because it skips

[Mobe1969]

Firstly, I'd like to say **** the industry for is misinformed "HD" notation. It seems it goes:
- 480 line (NTSC) and 576 line (PAL) = SD
- "Everything Else" = HD

To my logical way of thinking:
- 480 line (NTSC) and 576 line (PAL) = SD
- 720 line = MD (medium)
- 1080 line = HD

The difference between 720 to 1080 is greater than the difference between PAL and 720.

720p downloads are simply NOT HD, they are MD.

[clownface]

There is another disadvantage to digital downloads, you need a huge hard drive to store all of your movies (1TB or more). Also you have to pray that your hard drive never dies.

[alphadec]

Another point u can add there or there are more like:

The films u download is full of DRM! so yes u must pay to see the file again after 24 hours.

Also those who download a hd moivie who are they. ? (kids)

I am over 39 and I own a pc not a ps3, wii, ps2, or would never buy a xbox360 so the marked to download movies is I guess very limited. Therefore I got a Blu-ray stand alone player BDP-S500 (Love it).

[blu future]

I think the only 'REAL' problem downloads pose is in terms of increased piracy, and I hope to God, that's not what the hd dud fans are hoping for.

[Teazle]

Something often overlooked is that a DL service such as Apple TV is in direct competition with cable television and satellite. BIG and deeply entrenched utility companies with decades of experience who will not be keen on giving up market share to Apple.

To the consumer Apple TV appears virtually the same, functionally speaking, as CATV or satellite. You have a proprietary box connected to the wall by a wire and the power cord. There's no computer; with the remote you choose from a limited stock of available shows to watch. In fact given the 24-hour timeframe Apple TV resembles on-demand very closely. Apple TV appears to the consumer simply as CATV minus real-time broadcast -- that's to say, it works like an inferior version of CATV.

The idea that downloading is somehow specifically predatory of HDM is wildly wrong. Existing utilities will attempt to squash DL services by offering better content, more content and more convenience. And it's easy to see how they can do so using the on-demand mechanisms they already have in place.

Finally, there's this conflict of interest: many consumers get their internet over the same wire from which they get their CATV. As cable data service improves, will cable cos. offer more internet bandwidth at the expense of the TV service, when services using the former (like Apple TV) threaten the latter? Not likely. _They_ decide the allocation of resources to internet and DTV respectively over their own wires. As video files get larger and larger, there is room for some borderline anticompetitive behaviour here, with the cable cos. ensuring via their control over bandwidth that their TV service is ahead of what video you can conveniently DL over the internet.

[bootman]

Originally Posted by Mobe1969

Firstly, I'd like to say **** the industry for is misinformed "HD" notation. It seems it goes:
- 480 line (NTSC) and 576 line (PAL) = SD
- "Everything Else" = HD

To my logical way of thinking:
- 480 line (NTSC) and 576 line (PAL) = SD
- 720 line = MD (medium)
- 1080 line = HD

The difference between 720 to 1080 is greater than the difference between PAL and 720.

720p downloads are simply NOT HD, they are MD.

This is the line of thinking that is missing in all of these arguments.
You will not get anything over 720p via downloads.
Sure faster broadband speeds will be here this year. (expect to see 50M and up cable modem packages) they will be top tier products with prices well over $50 a month. (FiOS 50 meg package averages about $150 a month depending on market)
Even if these massive DL start to catch on, the talk amoung ISP it to look seriously into charging by the bit instead of a flat rate.
"HD" downloads would quickly become much more expensive than any HDM.

[Sonny]

DDL's are $H!T!!! plain & simple . I know one day Blu-ray & DDL's will "fully" live together but not for many years to come. HD DDL's wont be the only option, it will just merely be a "option" & a shitty one at that. Blu-ray & fiscal media are here to stay.

[actionhank]

You don't even have to go to the store for BDs with amazon.com or netflix

[dialog_gvf]

The fortunate thing about this issue is, Microsoft and Apple won't be able to simply convince the public they prefer downloads to discs. The public either will or won't. Marketing can have very little effect.

The marketing types fail again and again to realize what drives radical paradigm shifts in the consumer. It's due to one word: CONVENIENCE.

Without some form of major convenience improvement, the shift won't happen.

LP to CD - Convenience (size, durability, and portability)
VHS to DVD - Convenience (size, portability, random access, no rewind)
Film to digital cameras - Convenience and price (no taking film to be developed)

Downloads offer little convenience improvement, and as the article points out, they currently go BACKWARDS for convenience (no portability, little reuse, and I would add no protection against hardware failure).

Now, the lack of convenience improvement may make you worried about Blu-ray. But, this is not a paradignm shift but a move to higher quality within the same form factor.

Mono -> stereo LP
1 megapixel -> N megapixel digital cameras

It won't happen overnight, but history tells us that when things are clear to the consumer (no format war like DVD-A v. SACD) then the higher quality DOES get adopted over time.

And, if Managed Copy gets done, a convenience improvement (portable players) will become available under Blu-ray.

Gary

[Galley]

I rented "Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End" in HD on my Apple TV. The image quality was surprisingly good.
The film, however, was surprisingly bad.