Universal, Cinemark Strike Historic Deal Shrinking Theatrical Window for Event Pics t

[Lee A Stewart]

Originally Posted by ltb2.0

I should be more specific. I completely failed to even consider the fate of the current regional theaters. Seriously, I haven't even given them a thought, they just don't really exist in my area. However we have a Potato Museum if that interests you. Or perhaps a hotel shaped like a dog is more your speed.

I have one for you: Pistachio Land Is New Mexico's Largest Nut In The World

My straight forward thinking was that the chains are pretty much done for at this point, but from their ashes will rise a new regionalized market, where you'll have territories/circuits like Pro Wrestling before the WWF went national. More fragmented perhaps, but still similar in concept.

And that's where we disagree. The major theater chains WILL survive. They have many financial remedies that the mom & pop owned/regional chains just do not have.

My point is, theatrical exhibition and distribution will undergo a major change, but it will still be there.

And I agree. But it may be 50% smaller than it is today.

Just for fun I looked up the theater count in my state. According to Cinema Treasures, we have 70 open theaters, with only 58 of those currently showing movies.

We have 65 theaters here in New Mexico. All are still closed.

[JayTL]

Zero problem with this agreement. Either it's a movie I want to see in theaters ASAP, or I usually wait the 90 days.

If the movie doesn't gross that much, it's a loser for chains as well.

This one really is a win-win.

Except I wonder if this affects Universal's standing with other chains. I can see AMC saying no to those movies or something.

[ltb2.0]

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

I have one for you: Pistachio Land Is New Mexico's Largest Nut In The World

[Show spoiler]

.

Hmmm Pistachio Land? I kinda want to go there now.

And that's where we disagree. The major theater chains WILL survive. They have many financial remedies that the mom & pop owned/regional chains just do not have.

You dare disagree with me? How dare you. My local congressman will hear about this. This is absolutely intolerable.

I do feel that we are almost in agreement, but we are looking at different sides of a multi-colored rock. Because I do agree that mom & pop theaters simply won't survive, but the many of the buildings will still be in play as movie houses after some savvy investment firms/investors take them over. However I don't see anyone person/group taking over all of them. I think the the person or groups will only take over certain locations/regions.

However I'd estimate that they'd close the most unprofitable and undesirable locations and focus resources on the most viable locations to begin the process of getting ready to flip them to whichever studio/company makes the first move in the next half decade or so.

Depending on the region, I'd say anywhere from 30-40% of theaters will be gone. Or perhaps marked as historical and preserved as a theater that shows classic movies. But that would only account for less 3% of currently existing mom and pop locations. Unless people suddenly get really attached theaters and decide they represent an invaluable piece of Americana. But honestly, that ain't happening.

Still not willing to bank on the major chains though.

And I agree. But it may be 50% smaller than it is today.

I'm gonna be relentlessly optimistic about theatrical exhibition until all hope is gone and the last glimmer fades.

I counter your 50% with 40%.

I do have a few caveats though, this all depends on major studios still existing in the next few years provided we aren't hit with a cataclysmic meltdown of North American society.

We have 65 theaters here in New Mexico. All are still closed.

Interesting, 65/2.097 million vs 70/1.787 million.

[Lee A Stewart]

Originally Posted by ltb2.0

Interesting, 65/2.097 million vs 70/1.787 million.

Might be that 33% of all of New Mexico is owned by the Federal Government (White Sands Missile Range, etc.).

Our population is more compacted into fewer areas than maybe yours is.

[Lee A Stewart]

The 17 days or 31 day time periods are not cast in concrete. Universal has the option to use them. If a movie is doing well they will leave it in theaters. If it isn't doing well - they can put it on VOD.

Just a reminder . . . when a movie does $1 billion at the box office, the studio gets a percentage of that. Far lower than the $1B number.

[slumcat]

Originally Posted by slumcat

This is the beginning of the end of theatrical.

We all have busy lives. I personally often caught movies in 2nd or 3rd week. If its only 1 week more on home video, I will wait.

Called it folks. Look at WB HBO Max announcement.

Theatrical is dead.

[CinemaScope]

Of course streaming & discs make a lot of money, but the big, big money is still made at the cinema (or was), what this could do is to spell the end of the really big budget film (one-two hundred million), it just won't make its money back.

[Lee A Stewart]

Originally Posted by CinemaScope

Of course streaming & discs make a lot of money, but the big, big money is still made at the cinema (or was), what this could do is to spell the end of the really big budget film (one-two hundred million), it just won't make its money back.

IMO Bob Chapek, CEO of Disney will announce next week (Dec. 10th) that Disney+ now has 80 million subs.

80 million X $6.99 = $559,200,000/mo. x 12 = $6,710,400,000 per year. ($6.7B)

That's about the same as Disney made (money Disney itself made, not total BO which is shared with theaters and distributors) at the worldwide box office last year, it's best year ever. Then there are the marketing costs Disney had to pay which are not included.