Samsung Exec: Blu-ray Will Be Gone in 5 Years

[Maximus]

Originally Posted by Oddiophile

I'm using front projection with a 110" screen so 90" is kind of small.


JVC will be showing off 4K and 8K front projectors at CEDIA.

Not mainstream!

[Branden]

link?

it seems to me that the writer knows nothing of what he's writing about, which is why the article makes no sense. he doesn't realize that OLED and blu-ray are complementary, not competing technologies.

[mjbethancourt]

We may see the beginning of a new format in five years, that's probable, but I don't see how that will kill blu-ray. People didn't stop buying DVD's four years ago just because HD formats got released.

[blu2]

Originally Posted by Branden

link?

it seems to me that the writer knows nothing of what he's writing about, which is why the article makes no sense. he doesn't realize that OLED and blu-ray are complementary, not competing technologies.

Link:

http://www.pocket-lint.co.uk/news/ne...ars-left.phtml

I think Samsung is stating the obvious that in 5 years Blu Ray will not be a money maker for them, just as DVD players are not money makers for the major CE vendors today, and they see OLED as a place where they will be making money in 5 years.

As for what's next, of course Sony, Panasonic, Samsung are working on something that will be some form of replacement for Blu Ray as it exists today. They need a steady stream of new tech / product to sell us.

[doctorsteve]

M'kaaayyyy.

(making list...)

Not... buying... To.. Shi.. ba.

Not.. buying... Sam.. sung.

Got it!

Any other idiotic companies out there?

Oh yeah...

Mi.. cro... sss..

[mjbethancourt]

If he's hinting at downloaded movies, he really is a fool.

[badboi]

Hopefully Samsung will do us all a favor and pull out now. Still kicking myself over buying their Blu ray player.

[Elandyll]

Originally Posted by mjbethancourt

If he's hinting at downloaded movies, he really is a fool.

He probably is. And .. yeah.

[Luis_A51]

Originally Posted by Oddiophile

I'm using front projection with a 110" screen so 90" is kind of small.


JVC will be showing off 4K and 8K front projectors at CEDIA.

so because YOU have a 110" screen, you think a product designed for 90"tvs will become mainstream? right......

[Clark Kent]

This article boils down to one executive's opinion. Lots of "executives" also thought HD DVD would be the winning HD format. If he had said dvd would be gone in five years it might have been believable.

[Robert R1]

Originally Posted by Oddiophile

I'm using front projection with a 110" screen so 90" is kind of small.


JVC will be showing off 4K and 8K front projectors at CEDIA.

You're a niche in a niche in a niche. We're talking mass consumer adoption and you jump in with some very high end ethusiast wants?

[Robert R1]

All said and done, the writing is on the wall. Right now BR sales are averaging around 7% of DVD. I'm expecting a large Q4 push from BR. This holiday season there's not new hot CE device and BR can be it.

$200 players and sensible prices on the media can really ramp it up and send BR on it's way to eating away DVD's share in large chunks going forward.

Playing attention to Q4 08 and Q1 09 real numbers (not PR pieces!) should give us a very good idea of whether BR is destined for mass market adoption or to remain a niche product.

If Q4 08 and Q1 are hovering between 15-20, then I'd say it's well on it's way. Anything around 10 or below is a disappointment.

[Anthony P]

You're a niche in a niche in a niche. We're talking mass consumer adoption and you jump in with some very high end ethusiast wants?

1) there are a few people that use FP at ~90"+ and not all of them are enthusiasts. FP is easy to buy and relatively cheap

2) who cares how many have screens ~90"+ today? a few years ago the normal person had ~20" TVs, then ~30", then ~40" now it is 50 or 60.... who knows where it will be in a few years.

[Oddiophile]

Originally Posted by Robert R1

You're a niche in a niche in a niche. We're talking mass consumer adoption and you jump in with some very high end ethusiast wants?

I replayed to a question, don't take it out of context and manipulate it into something else.

Thanks.



Besides it doesn't matter if the display needs to be over 90" to see a major difference. If consumers want 4K TV's at 60" and up the manufacturers will make them.

4K is coming, get over it.

[jangofett]

1. This looks like nothing more than a spat between two electronics companies and even though Sammie is bringing OLED into this, OLED isn't going to do anything but significantly grow Blu, given the reasons that I gave in this here:
https://forum.blu-ray.com/showthread.php?t=62249

2. As to whether or not Blu will be gone in 5 years or not, if that does happen, a decreased reliance on physical electronics, it would hurt Sammie just as much b/c nobody will their BD players again.

[Neo65]

Given the context of his discussion, I believe he thinks Samsung can only make money on making Blu-Ray players for 5 years before low-priced walmart players take over from the tier 1. By 2013, Samsung electronics CE division can fuel their growth from OLED even if BD players goes below $50 at which point samsung can no longer compete.

This is pretty much the timeline that unfolded for DVD players.

[prerich]

Originally Posted by Dirk504

I understand your logic, but most peoples pockets can't keep up with technology. I'm a consumer of mainly electronics, as most people on this site are. Going blu for me is not only a luxury, but an expensive one. Most people can't even afford to go blu yet, so trying to release a new technology every 6-8 yrs. is really disregarding the state of the economy. Cell phones are totally different, because most people need cell phones and they're replacing regular house phones. Most people don't NEED new HD technology and are content watching TV in SD.

I understand your points also - maybe I'm thinking like a computer geek now (that's my other side ) It cost me very little to get into BD. What I can't see - on the cell phone side - is using it to replace a house phone, 911 operators can't get your addresss from your cell phone (worked dispatch for a little while). If stuff like profile 2.0 gets hot (which I think it won't) but if it does - that could drive the tech to be like computers - Yes or No

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by Robert R1

If Q4 08 and Q1 are hovering between 15-20, then I'd say it's well on it's way. Anything around 10 or below is a disappointment.

Indeed, the point here being that ANYTHING proposed is battling a popular format (DVD). So, I'm still scratching my head how the unspecified replacement will have already buried Blu-ray in five years.

Gary

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by Neo65

Given the context of his discussion, I believe he thinks Samsung can only make money on making Blu-Ray players for 5 years before low-priced walmart players take over from the tier 1.

Perhaps that is what he meant. At least that makes sense.

Gary

[prerich]

Originally Posted by Oddiophile

4,000 resolution TV's will be hitting the market soon.

If the Blu-Ray association can get 200GB disk's working in production and update the players processing to handle 4K, maybe Blu-Ray can go longer then five years.

Excellent point! HDMI 1.3 has a maximum resolution of 2560×1600p@75fps while the computer industry backed (AMD,INTEL, and Nvida all support Display Port) display port has a maximum resolution of 4096×2160 @ 24fps. This is very....interesting