PS3 to get 45nm Cell early next year

[Icemage]

Originally Posted by BluOgre

I guess I thought making money off the console wasn't important to them after reading about that Sony exec saying they don't think they'll ever make back the losses in the PS3 hardware.

You maybe correct that it only hurts them this year with a few hundred thousand people goign to the competitor however the negative press will be BAD for the PS3. I find it amazing to this day that people still actually think there is no games to play on the PS3......but it all stims from the negative press the PS3 had at the beginning. The lack of software they had the first year still haunts them to this day.

All I'm saying is you could have the same situation here.....if X360 sales double PS3's in the US during the 4th qtr, that could have long term effects. Then again I'm not privy to your information so maybe it is a matter of securing investors for longterm. I'm just looking at it from a reailer/rentailers perspective who wants the PS3 to do good. Right now I believe the price is the only thing holding it back.

If the price differential was only $50-$100 it wouldn't be a factor, but right this moment, the Xbox 360 Arcade is half the price of the lowest priced PS3. I agree with you - the PS3 does need a price cut soon, before the holidays, or it's going to lose ground it can't afford to in North America.

Investors in Sony should be aware that PS3 losses are due almost entirely because of Blu-ray. What seems to be holding Sony back so far is the reluctance of Blu-ray manufacturers to push the price down any further, but magnanimity only goes so far. The PS3 needs to come down in price, and while Sony can deny to their last breath that they're going to do it, circumstances will likely force their hand by November, if not sooner.

[blitz6speed]

Originally Posted by BluOgre

I run over 60 rental locations, I don't buy into hype. What I do is look at numbers, my numbers are telling me X360 is lightyears ahead of the PS3 in installed base (I'm in over 5 markets all around the US) if you just look at rental activity per title.

You can quote me all the specs you want, here are the facts that I've been seeing. PS2 revenue is dropping and dropping SUPER fast in my markets. The PS3 revenue is not matching the drop but X360 is. I look at specific turns of all titles for the PS3......it's horrible. The PS3 titles turn worse than the Wii games......that shoudl tell you something right there (considering the Wii has crap for titles).

Also I'm finishing up my 4th qtr prebooks for games, PS3 has equal strength in titles as the X360. If you think the software is going to be better than X360's you may be in for a shock. I'm not looking at this from a fanboys point of view, I have to look at from the business side. Everything I am looking at is telling me PS3 needs a price cut so PS2 gamers can buy the PS3.

My prediction for the US sales (hardware/software) if the PS3 does not reduce its $399 price.....Sony is going to get slaughtered (console sales wise....I'm sure Blu-ray as a whole is going to do fine). I wish the thousands of customers that visit my stores see the same thing in PS3 that you do but it's pretty obvious they don't. When about 75% of my stores can't make a PROFIT off the software in a 6 month period.....this is a serious problem with the installed base here in the US.

Who said anything about the previous install base? Microsoft obviously had a 4+ million lead in the US, but that is all it has worldwide. It is in last place in every other market in the world. If you want to look at it from a US only perspective, then perhaps i can see why you'd be freaking out about the situation, but the Playstation brand is worldwide, not just US based like the xbox 360 is. So it just needs to do well here while doing excellent in europe and decent in japan and it will do just fine.

As max said, right now, the Playstation brand needs to show proft. Something MS also went for. About a year or so ago, microsoft flooded the stores with systems so it could show less of a loss for that quarters report. And as i said earlier, sony is going to sell out this holiday season regardless, you'd be foolish to think otherwise. So there is absolutely 0 need for a price drop.

[jkwest]

the most I can figure is a $50 drop...and that would be pushing it.

[AranhaHunter]

I thought it already had the 45nm Cell, but that was probably the 65nm...

[BluOgre]

Originally Posted by Icemage

If the price differential was only $50-$100 it wouldn't be a factor, but right this moment, the Xbox 360 Arcade is half the price of the lowest priced PS3. I agree with you - the PS3 does need a price cut soon, before the holidays, or it's going to lose ground it can't afford to in North America.

Investors in Sony should be aware that PS3 losses are due almost entirely because of Blu-ray. What seems to be holding Sony back so far is the reluctance of Blu-ray manufacturers to push the price down any further, but magnanimity only goes so far. The PS3 needs to come down in price, and while Sony can deny to their last breath that they're going to do it, circumstances will likely force their hand by November, if not sooner.

I was told that the roylaty costs for Blu-ray manufactures were around $70 alone........it's no wonder no one wants to cut the price of their hardware.

But yeah I think North America is the one market they need to be worried about. Ouside of the US, maybe they don't need a price cut because the competitor is so bad. But there are a lot of fans of Xbox here and having a $199 price compared to a $399 price in this economy.....my gut tells me sony is going to get kicked in the head this 4th qtr. Bundles or bigger harddrives is not going to remove the $200 price difference.

[Maximus]

Originally Posted by BluOgre

I guess I thought making money off the console wasn't important to them after reading about that Sony exec saying they don't think they'll ever make back the losses in the PS3 hardware.

You maybe correct that it only hurts them this year with a few hundred thousand people goign to the competitor however the negative press will be BAD for the PS3. I find it amazing to this day that people still actually think there is no games to play on the PS3......but it all stims from the negative press the PS3 had at the beginning. The lack of software they had the first year still haunts them to this day.

All I'm saying is you could have the same situation here.....if X360 sales double PS3's in the US during the 4th qtr, that could have long term effects. Then again I'm not privy to your information so maybe it is a matter of securing investors for longterm. I'm just looking at it from a reailer/rentailers perspective who wants the PS3 to do good. Right now I believe the price is the only thing holding it back.

No way, you're looking at the situation with some sort of bias towards the 360. There isn't any chance the 360 will double PS3 sales over Nov-Dec. The Wii will sell the most, probably 4-5m, 360 next with about 2-3m and PS3 with a few hundred thousand less. WW (including NA sales) the situation will be Wii top with 8-10m, PS3 next with 6-7m and 360 last with 3-4m.

So really a few months of bad press is not a big deal when you look at it in those terms.

If the PS3 received an average $100 price cut across the board sales would undoubtedly rise closer to Wii like levels but the cost of that could be $600-800m, and for what, a bit of bad press and fanboy angst. I would rather have the money...

Anyway, the PS3 does still have chronic lack of exclusive titles. MGS4 and Uncharted are the only ones on the must have list. Obviously there are good games that are worth buying, but the must have list of exclusives is rather thin. Obviously that all changes with MS2, LBP and R2. There is still no exclusive RPG worth having, and still no exclusive open world game worth having. Therein lies the perception that the PS3 has got no games, while I don't agree with the statement fully, it does have merit...

[Maximus]

Originally Posted by Icemage

Investors in Sony should be aware that PS3 losses are due almost entirely because of Blu-ray. What seems to be holding Sony back so far is the reluctance of Blu-ray manufacturers to push the price down any further, but magnanimity only goes so far. The PS3 needs to come down in price, and while Sony can deny to their last breath that they're going to do it, circumstances will likely force their hand by November, if not sooner.

No, it's not. People seem to think that the PS3 would have released at $599 if Blu-ray wasn't there. It would still have been losing money, but released at $399 instead.

Sony need to show profitability, I can't stress this enough, and damaging it will drive investors and potential investors away. The reason this is important is because driving investors away will lead to a reduction in their already depressed share price. That is a dangerous situation as they would then be a prime target for a private equity takeover bid. Toshiba are already in that situation, speculation is mounting about their future and if Sony were to lose another $1bn in SCE it wouldn't surprise me if they were subject to some speculation.

[BluOgre]

Originally Posted by blitz6speed

Who said anything about the previous install base? Microsoft obviously had a 4+ million lead in the US, but that is all it has worldwide. It is in last place in every other market in the world. If you want to look at it from a US only perspective, then perhaps i can see why you'd be freaking out about the situation, but the Playstation brand is worldwide, not just US based like the xbox 360 is. So it just needs to do well here while doing excellent in europe and decent in japan and it will do just fine.

As max said, right now, the Playstation brand needs to show proft. Something MS also went for. About a year or so ago, microsoft flooded the stores with systems so it could show less of a loss for that quarters report. And as i said earlier, sony is going to sell out this holiday season regardless, you'd be foolish to think otherwise. So there is absolutely 0 need for a price drop.

I always thought the US market was the most important but maybe things are changing. If there is no price cut in the US market Sony may never win this market until possibly PS4. I have data that goes back to PS2 vs Xbox days.......it's exactly reversed right now (as far as rental data is concerned). X360 software is generating what the PS2 software did years back. PS3 is copying Xbox exactly.

Like I said above, the Sony brand seems to do much better outside of the US but it's really hurting in North America. And I don't buy it for minute that they will sell out of hardware.....unless they plan to short ship retailers (which funny enough right now my distributor is all out of PS3 right now....because Sony cut the 40gig out of production and are holding back shipments of the 80 gig). So yeah if they plan to pull a Nintendo where they don't make enough consoles for the market, yeah they will sell out......but they would get killed even more when you compare the sales.

[Maximus]

Originally Posted by BluOgre

I was told that the roylaty costs for Blu-ray manufactures were around $70 alone........it's no wonder no one wants to cut the price of their hardware.

But yeah I think North America is the one market they need to be worried about. Ouside of the US, maybe they don't need a price cut because the competitor is so bad. But there are a lot of fans of Xbox here and having a $199 price compared to a $399 price in this economy.....my gut tells me sony is going to get kicked in the head this 4th qtr. Bundles or bigger harddrives is not going to remove the $200 price difference.

By who, firstly people shouldn't be talking about that stuff, I know the NDA I signed covers discussion of royalty payments and it hasn't expired, secondly it isn't anywhere near that much, while I am unable to give a number, it's not even close to that.

[AranhaHunter]

Instead of cutting the prices by $50 Sony should have bundles:

$399 80GB LBP + 2 DS or Ratchet and Clank
$399 80 GB Motorstorm 2 + 2 DS or Uncharted
$499 160 GB Resistance 2 +2 DS + The Dark Knight
$499 160 GB Iron Man + The Dark Knight + MGS4

[BluOgre]

Originally Posted by Maxpower1987

No way, you're looking at the situation with some sort of bias towards the 360. There isn't any chance the 360 will double PS3 sales over Nov-Dec.

I hope you're right because right now PS3 seems to have 1/3 of the X360 installed base in my markets (rental activity wise). Now I thought this could be just my markets but I know for a fact that Corporate Blockbuster Video is seeing the same thing. Multiplats are being purchased twice as high on the X360 than on the PS3. You don't have those types of splits without serious issues in the installed base.

Now you are saying PS3 will lose even more ground (in the US) over the 4th qtr (even if it's only a couple hundred thousand). I really hope you are right and this doesn't become a bloodbath in the US market after this year. This is coming from a business, not from a gamer who plays games. I want the PS3 to do good but everything that I'm seeing is not good without a price cut.

[AranhaHunter]

Originally Posted by Maxpower1987

No, it's not. People seem to think that the PS3 would have released at $599 if Blu-ray wasn't there. It would still have been losing money, but released at $399 instead.

Sony need to show profitability, I can't stress this enough, and damaging it will drive investors and potential investors away. The reason this is important is because driving investors away will lead to a reduction in their already depressed share price. That is a dangerous situation as they would then be a prime target for a private equity takeover bid. Toshiba are already in that situation, speculation is mounting about their future and if Sony were to lose another $1bn in SCE it wouldn't surprise me if they were subject to some speculation.

Yeah $1bln loss on their Playstation brand alone in a 3rd straight FY would be death. Other Sony subsidiaries have been profitable, but the games division is still bleeding, they finally posted a profit qtr for Q1FY09, Q3FY09 is pretty much guaranteed profit, but Q2 will be trick, we'll know that next month, but here's hoping they posted a profit there too.

[BluOgre]

Originally Posted by Maxpower1987

By who, firstly people shouldn't be talking about that stuff, I know the NDA I signed covers discussion of royalty payments and it hasn't expired, secondly it isn't anywhere near that much, while I am unable to give a number, it's not even close to that.

I thought the guy was making it up to be honest, but it's the only number I've ever heard. It was in a presentation and I'll bet stuido reps from somewhere gave the information out. He doesn't work for Sony I can assure you. Heck he was the one who told me there was going to be a PRICECUT for the PS3 this year.......which right afterwards Sony publically says they were not going to do :/

[Steelmaker]

I say they should bunde every PS3 with a copy of Dark Knight this Christmas, push this system hard as THE premier blu ray player and be done with it.

[Luis_A51]

Max

Redesign asside, do you really think we'll see 45nm PS3s in stores by April? I really want a 2nd ps3, but I also really want it to be quiet and use less power. I can wait until april, especially if the price-cuts come in feb/march.

[AranhaHunter]

Originally Posted by BluOgre

I hope you're right because right now PS3 seems to have 1/3 of the X360 installed base in my markets (rental activity wise). Now I thought this could be just my markets but I know for a fact that Corporate Blockbuster Video is seeing the same thing. Multiplats are being purchased twice as high on the X360 than on the PS3. You don't have those types of splits without serious issues in the installed base.

Now you are saying PS3 will lose even more ground (in the US) over the 4th qtr (even if it's only a couple hundred thousand). I really hope you are right and this doesn't become a bloodbath in the US market after this year. This is coming from a business, not from a gamer who plays games. I want the PS3 to do good but everything that I'm seeing is not good without a price cut.

Last I heard the PS3 was roughly 40% the installed base of the 360 in America, but it's ahead in Europe and Japan. Europe's market is increasing greatly these last years mainly because of the strong currency there.

[Maximus]

Originally Posted by BluOgre

I hope you're right because right now PS3 seems to have 1/3 of the X360 installed base in my markets (rental activity wise). Now I thought this could be just my markets but I know for a fact that Corporate Blockbuster Video is seeing the same thing. Multiplats are being purchased twice as high on the X360 than on the PS3. You don't have those types of splits without serious issues in the installed base.

Now you are saying PS3 will lose even more ground (in the US) over the 4th qtr (even if it's only a couple hundred thousand). I really hope you are right and this doesn't become a bloodbath in the US market after this year. This is coming from a business, not from a gamer who plays games. I want the PS3 to do good but everything that I'm seeing is not good without a price cut.

Trust me, I have a very good background in financial and media analysis, the PS3 will get outsold in the US by a maximum of 500,000 units in the 2008 calendar year, but in PAL and Japan it will outsell the 360 by about 3m units.

When it comes to multi-plat sales a 2:1 split is hardly surprising, considering the US installed base of the PS3 is ~5m and the 360 is ~ 11m. That's what happens when you launch a year ahead of the competition at a significantly lower price. What should be worrying MS is that the PS3 version of multi-plat games outsell the 360 version by about 1.5:1 in PAL, but the installed base is basically the same right now, even when the PS3 version is inferior it sells more. They need to rethink Live fees and handing out headsets to 12 year old ******s...

When the quarterly shipment figures come out in April/May (I would say January, but MS have a habit of overstuffing the channel and claiming victory!) people are going to be wondering what all the fuss was about. Seriously, what matters is WW sales and the PS3 will give the 360 a right old beating around these parts.

[Maximus]

Originally Posted by Luis_A51

Max

Redesign asside, do you really think we'll see 45nm PS3s in stores by April? I really want a 2nd ps3, but I also really want it to be quiet and use less power. I can wait until april, especially if the price-cuts come in feb/march.

If you buy a PS3 in April it will be significantly quieter and will consume less power as well.

Unless you want it urgently wait it out.

[Maximus]

Originally Posted by Steelmaker

I say they should bunde every PS3 with a copy of Dark Knight this Christmas, push this system hard as THE premier blu ray player and be done with it.

I don't think Sony's BDA partners would be very happy about that, especially since their offerings will be cheaper and more HT friendly...

[Maximus]

Originally Posted by BluOgre

I thought the guy was making it up to be honest, but it's the only number I've ever heard. It was in a presentation and I'll bet stuido reps from somewhere gave the information out. He doesn't work for Sony I can assure you. Heck he was the one who told me there was going to be a PRICECUT for the PS3 this year.......which right afterwards Sony publically says they were not going to do :/

Definitely made up. On both counts, officially and unofficially Sony are saying the same thing - the current pricing scheme is here to stay until they get costs under control.

As an aside, proving to investors that SCE is a worthwhile growth area is important not only for the company but for PS3 gamers as well. Showing the PS brand a formidable profit generation centre means it gives Sony more licence to invest money on buying their second party partners, like Level 5, Insomniac, Sucker Punch, Media Molecule or any one of a number of studios. This is the most important thing, beefing up the first party not only secures the PS3 it also secures the future of the PS4 as well. Right now SCE first party studios are stretched to breaking point trying to get games out in any sort of timely fashion, it needs to expand or they will struggle when the PS4 comes out.