Blu-Ray Sales Expected To Triple In 2009 What Does This Mean Help Me

[Meeklo]

Too bad Walmart isn't catching up with Best Buy. My local Wallys still have about 3 rows of shelves dedicated to DVD and about half a row for Blus.

Also I've noticed Walmart is a bad place to buy new releases. Usually when a DVD comes out, it sells it's first week at about $15 and then jumps to $20 or so after that initial week. But Walmart sells new Blus for $30 that first week instead of $25-$26 like everyone else does.

[Disco]

Originally Posted by RustyK94

So if sales triple and given Blu-Rays current market share where looking at a healthy 30% of the home media market correct?

If that's the case by the end of 2010 Blu-Ray should over take DVD sales.

Or im i getting way over my head.

There is less DVD sales all the time. While Blu Ray sales is increasing.
This is certain.

[kefrank]

I think there's some fuzzy math going on in this thread.

If unit sales triple as one prediction holds, the market share will not necessarily triple, because that percentage depends on what happens with unit sales of DVD. Unit sales of BD could triple and that could mean a greater than triple increase in market share, but it could also mean only a doubling of market share or less. "Experts" at CES were predicting that BD would have about a 40% market share by 2010 (presumably the end of that year).

What really matters to the companies involved is money. This year, according to the DEG, home video sales were $22.4 billion and sales of Blu-ray accounted for $750 million of that. If my math is right, then Blu-ray accounted for 3.3% of home video software revenue in 2008. Seems like kind of a small number, but $750 million was almost quadruple what it was the year before and that kind of growth is very encouraging to the industry, particularly when DVD sales are steadily declining.

I'm no expert, but I think 2009 will be a wonderful year for Blu-ray. In terms of market share, I think a reasonable estimate is that it'll average somewhere between 17 and 25% of (top 20) home video software unit sales in 2009. That would mean peak weeks of somewhere in the low 30s, which I think we could see in the fourth quarter.

[MattVollet]

Originally Posted by kefrank

If unit sales triple as one prediction holds, the market share will not necessarily triple, because that percentage depends on what happens with unit sales of DVD. Unit sales of BD could triple and that could mean a greater than triple increase in market share, but it could also mean only a doubling of market share or less. "Experts" at CES were predicting that BD would have about a 40% market share by 2010 (presumably the end of that year).

Presumably, though, people adapting blu within the next few years have some sort of love for movies (and thus movie buying) so wouldn't blu be STEALING market share from DVD then? Do you think this stat took that into consideration? Or is it just saying it was a 2%, it's going to be at 6%.

[monkeyjb1988]

Originally Posted by richieb1971

I could single handedly triple blu ray sales myself. My spending of blu's is wayyyyyyyyyyy out of control.

I wish. I'm so broke that I can't even entertain the thought of getting mor Blus yet. I hoping to soon get the Planet of the Apes set.

It seems Blu-Ray is growing. It'll probably get to 30% either by 2009 or 2010. There are going to be a ton of classic films coming to Blu this year, so 2009 might be the year. It definitly isn't going away anytime soon, like another certain high definition disc.

[Anthony P]

Aren't software sales already at around 30% of total sales for films released on DVD and BD on the same day?

not yet, look at the sticky thread in the news section with the numbers each week.

And really, what is the deciding factor for the point where BD overtakes DVD? Wouldn't it be the software market penetration? Because for example, it doesn't matter if 70% of people prefer DVD if 95% of movies bought are on Blu-ray. It's software that decides when a format is dying or dead, or would you take a look at the VCR devices still being produced and claim VHS still has life?

yup, like I like to say, who cares what the person that is not buying movies is not buying.

[Anthony P]

What really matters to the companies involved is money. This year, according to the DEG, home video sales were $22.4 billion and sales of Blu-ray accounted for $750 million of that. If my math is right, then Blu-ray accounted for 3.3% of home video software revenue in 2008. Seems like kind of a small number, but $750 million was almost quadruple what it was the year before and that kind of growth is very encouraging to the industry, particularly when DVD sales are steadily declining.

your numbers are wrong, go reread everything again

[Flea77]

Originally Posted by GoYanks

I know the savvy people on this website use amazon quite a bit, but I'm thinking most people 40+ go to places like Best Buy to buy blu's.

So since I am one of the "savvy people on this website" but I am also part of "people 40+" what does that make me? I mean besides old enough to actually remember participating in the VHS/Beta war?

Be very wary thinking over 40 means non-tech savvy

Allan

[mredman]

they also need to remove that damn region coding for blu to really take of

[Sith]

One thing that is starting to upset me is I know 2 people I helped convince to
go blu....But there so fixed on prices of the movies that they say the upscaling is good enough....We all know that's not true, but when movies
are still $29.99 at Best Buy and the dvd is $16.99, these cheap people help
the dvd numbers

[GoYanks]

Originally Posted by Flea77

So since I am one of the "savvy people on this website" but I am also part of "people 40+" what does that make me? I mean besides old enough to actually remember participating in the VHS/Beta war?

Be very wary thinking over 40 means non-tech savvy

Allan

You're totally right. I should have said 55+. I'm not bein' an ass. But I think 55+ is around where many baby boomers are. That's kinda the group I'm referring to. Anyway, I'm sorry if I offended you.

I also meant that if you were 40+ and on the website you were savvy. So you're savvy. Savvy?

[kefrank]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

your numbers are wrong, go reread everything again

You'll have to enlighten me. This article states very clearly:
-- overall home video spending was $22.4 billion
-- blu-ray spending was $750 million

What numbers did I have wrong?

[Afrobean]

Originally Posted by kefrank

You'll have to enlighten me. This article states very clearly:
-- overall home video spending was $22.4 billion
-- blu-ray spending was $750 million

What numbers did I have wrong?

I don't like thinking about it that way.

Isn't the relative strength of the format more easily measured by looking at how well new releases sell on BD compared to DVD? Hardware penetration may be low, and total "blu-ray" spending might seem low compared to "overall home video spending", but the numbers can be a lot more impressive and representative of the format's strength if you just look at how well new releases sell on BD compared to DVD.

[kefrank]

Originally Posted by Afrobean

I don't like thinking about it that way.

Isn't the relative strength of the format more easily measured by looking at how well new releases sell on BD compared to DVD? Hardware penetration may be low, and total "blu-ray" spending might seem low compared to "overall home video spending", but the numbers can be a lot more impressive and representative of the format's strength if you just look at how well new releases sell on BD compared to DVD.

I don't necessarily disagree with any of that.

I'm just offering another perspective, based on what the CEs and studios desire, which is for the decline in DVD revenue to be filled in by Blu-ray. The numbers provided by the DEG offer that overall perspective (which actually is very positive for Blu-ray): Blu-ray hasn't filled in the gap yet, but it's growing at a rapid enough pace to do so sometime in the next few years.

[Anthony P]

You'll have to enlighten me. This article states very clearly:
-- overall home video spending was $22.4 billion

This year, according to the DEG, home video sales were $22.4

two extremely different stuff (and the top one is right). Spending includes rental so it is not sales. In 2007 Spending was 22.9B, sales 15.4B and renatal 7.5B.

When we have the sales numbers for BD+DVD then you can actually calculate sales % for BD

[Canada]

Blu sales trippling meens we can expect lower prices on Blu Rays hopefully.

[haste]

they need to start releasing new movies to blu-ray a week or two ahead of the dvd release.

[kefrank]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

two extremely different stuff (and the top one is right). Spending includes rental so it is not sales. In 2007 Spending was 22.9B, sales 15.4B and renatal 7.5B.

When we have the sales numbers for BD+DVD then you can actually calculate sales % for BD

I see. You're trying to differentiate between retail sales and rental sales, but I'm not (and neither is the article I linked which uses the terms "sales" and "spending" interchangeably. I'm just presenting the perspective that the studios would take. To them it's all sales (I'm pretty sure they don't give discs away to rental outlets). It's the overall picture.

Edited to add: I'm not sure if the DEG report is strictly consumer spending or studio revenue (it's not clear from the article), but I'm assuming the latter.

[Sidewinder]

Originally Posted by mredman

they also need to remove that damn region coding for blu to really take of

Yes that would be appreciated, this was the only real advantage of HD-DVD. But I don't cross my fingers for this, multi region BD Player will be the way to go IMO.

[zor]

Originally Posted by Meeklo

Too bad Walmart isn't catching up with Best Buy. My local Wallys still have about 3 rows of shelves dedicated to DVD and about half a row for Blus.

As retail displaces dvd w/ bd, customers will get it in their heads that dvd is largely on its way out and bd is the way of the future.

I think dvd will stick around though as many obscure or cult titles may never be released on bd. Maybe one day dvd will be just for these ancient, obscure or very cult titles