Physical & Digital EST: The Future of Home Video Discussion Thread

[Dynamo of Eternia]

Originally Posted by Boccaccio

I got curious about the Blu-ray production cost and the profits because Alchav seems to think it's a money loser.
I found this site where you can put in orders to produce almost any kind of physical media. ( no 4K though )

https://www.discmakers.com

For 1000 discs the cost comes down to 7.631 $ excluding tax ( average 7,6 per disc )

This includes a pressed BD-50, regular case, menu with 10 chapters, UPC code, AACS licensing, disc print all shrink-wrapped and shipped to any address in the US.
I didn't include design because I assume the companies have those themselves.

For 2000 discs the cost is 12.077 $ ( average already down to 6$ )

You can order more than 2000 but you have to call them and since I don't live in the US, I'm not going to do that.
But just imagine how much the price will go down if you order 20000 discs.
And this is all-in unless I'm missing something.
The boutique labels will also have to pay the licensing fees of course.

I think disc profits will be just fine.

And keep in mind that this is the cost for a regular person or someone with a small business to get something like this made through a place like Discmakers.

Odds are the studios and the labels that license titles from the studios have much better deals worked out by comparison. They are likely paying much lower amounts per-unit than this.

[Lee A Stewart]

The question really boils down to . . . how many copies of each title are sold?

If you make $15 a disc but only sell 1000 copies = $15,000

If you make $5 a disc and sell 1 million copies = $5 million

[alchav21]

Originally Posted by Boccaccio

I got curious about the Blu-ray production cost and the profits because Alchav seems to think it's a money loser.

I didn't include design because I assume the companies have those themselves.

The boutique labels will also have to pay the licensing fees of course.

I think disc profits will be just fine.

Originally Posted by Dynamo of Eternia

And keep in mind that this is the cost for a regular person or someone with a small business to get something like this made through a place like Discmakers.

Odds are the studios and the labels that license titles from the studios have much better deals worked out by comparison. They are likely paying much lower amounts per-unit than this.

You guys are mostly only taking about the cost to make a Disc, there are other costs that come into play. Studios have Departments that handle Disc Production, and there is also Marketing Costs. Yes the Revenue Report shows a decline from last year, but Disc Production is costly and the Profit Margin keeps coming down. Disney seems to think it was not worth it in Australia!

[PenguinInfinity]

Originally Posted by alchav21

You guys are mostly only taking about the cost to make a Disc, there are other costs that come into play. Studios have Departments that handle Disc Production, and there is also Marketing Costs. Yes the Revenue Report shows a decline from last year, but Disc Production is costly and the Profit Margin keeps coming down. Disney seems to think it was not worth it in Australia!

There are no additional marketing costs for disc. When something is released on streaming and disc they are advertised at the same time.

[Dynamo of Eternia]

Originally Posted by alchav21

You guys are mostly only taking about the cost to make a Disc, there are other costs that come into play. Studios have Departments that handle Disc Production, and there is also Marketing Costs. Yes the Revenue Report shows a decline from last year, but Disc Production is costly and the Profit Margin keeps coming down. Disney seems to think it was not worth it in Australia!

Those marketing costs will still exist even if they are just promoting the digital sale of a movie. And that's if they are doing actual advertising for a purchasable home release (be it digital of physical).

I don't know how often they run commercials for physical releases these days. And even if they do, it's nowhere near the cost of marketing a theatrical release. You are way over estimating this as an issue.


I'm not going to pretend to be an expert on the issue with Australia, so I could be wrong with what I'm about to say. But I would imagine Australia is a catch-22. As far as countries/continents go, it is off on it's own, fairly isolated from the rest of the world. If all of the manufacturing takes place elsewhere and is then sent to Australia, and if sales are declining just enough, I can see where shipping and distribution logistics (and the cost of them) can become a challenge.

By no means do I wish for Australia to be cut off in this regard. But if a particular country/continent/region is going to be cut off, given the circumstances, I can see why this would be the one chosen.


That being said, Disney is not exactly known for making stellar, profitable decisions in general these days. This week's earning call should be very interesting.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by alchav21

You guys are mostly only taking about the cost to make a Disc, there are other costs that come into play. Studios have Departments that handle Disc Production, and there is also Marketing Costs. Yes the Revenue Report shows a decline from last year, but Disc Production is costly and the Profit Margin keeps coming down. Disney seems to think it was not worth it in Australia!

When we refer to costs, we are referring to all costs associated with bringing a title to market.

You keep saying the part of your comment that I quoted in bold type, but you never have anything to back it up with. You have no idea what it costs to make anything and you certainly know nothing about physical media profit margins. You offer no credible evidence to support anything that you say...ever.

Australia has a population of just 26.7 million people and, as has been mentioned by Dynamo, they are rather isolated geographically. Disney may also license titles to boutique labels to fill the void that they are leaving behind; it's too soon to know.

You always fail to explain why the studios and their licensees would keep making a product, namely discs, only to sell them at a loss. Do you think the studios are masochists that like losing money? Or do you think that they are as unable to grasp basic business principles as you are?

How come you never comment about how almost all streaming services remain unable to make a profit despite years of revenue growth? They lose money faster than they can make it. Why don't you lend your great business acumen to helping them out? With your advice streaming's future would be guaranteed.

Lastly, exactly why do you care about disc profitability? You don't buy discs. You care about their fate about as much as I care about that of streaming.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by Wendell R. Breland

I know you were joking but Stacey Spears got so put out with DV he quit fooling with it, got a madVR Envy and lets it do TM to his LG panel. Kris Deering uses a Lumagen with his JVC NZ9 projector for pretty much the same reason. Kaleidescape does not bother with DV, they do HDR10 only.

Why do they dislike Dolby Vision so much? Is it because Dolby Vision locks out all the options to tinker with it like you can do with HDR10? These guys probably love to be able to tweak every last little thing and Dolby Vision won't let them.

Just a guess on my part. I like the Dolby Vision presentation on most of my 4K discs and streams, but I certainly do not pretend to know more than either of them do.

[Wendell R. Breland]

At one time the three big box stores in the USA sold EST movies, Best Buy CinemaNow, Target Ticket and Walmart VUDU. Best Buy CinemaNow, Target Ticket shuttered, Walmart VUDU sold. Disc still readily available from Best Buy, Target and Walmart, in store and/or online.

[Wendell R. Breland]

Originally Posted by Vilya

Why do they dislike Dolby Vision so much? Is it because Dolby Vision locks out all the options to tinker with it like you can do with HDR10? These guys probably love to be able to tweak every last little thing and Dolby Vision won't let them.

No simple answer, my guess - mastering errors, titles graded to 4000 or 10000 nits when consumer displays will not get close to that, titles without FEL, etc.

Just a guess on my part. I like the Dolby Vision presentation on most of my 4K discs and streams, but I certainly do not pretend to know more than either of them do.

Both are smart guys, if you have a Linkedin account you can read their professional summary. BTW, most of my info at Linkedin has disappeared and since I have been retired for > 19 years I see no need to update my account.

[Vilya]

Here's an addition to my collection from the land down under:



I didn't have The Peacekeeper Wars until now, so it was the perfect excuse to upgrade my DVD sets.

[alchav21]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

I think he thinks average cost for consumer to buy= average cost of studio to make a copy.

Originally Posted by Boccaccio

I got curious about the Blu-ray production cost and the profits because Alchav seems to think it's a money loser.
I found this site where you can put in orders to produce almost any kind of physical media. ( no 4K though )

I think disc profits will be just fine.

Originally Posted by Vilya

You always fail to explain why the studios and their licensees would keep making a product, namely discs, only to sell them at a loss.

Lastly, exactly why do you care about disc profitability?

Vilya it's good to have your Banter back, but take it easy it's not good for you. I was mainly clarifying the Posts. Yes the Studios still Profit on Discs but it keeps declining. You're right Streaming has it's problems, but IMO it's the Future. Direct Access Digital Server has to be better than Disc Distribution. Movie Theaters now get their Content from a Server, why not do the same with Streaming Movies and TV Shows. IMO we are headed for Gigabit+ Fiber Networks, so getting the Bandwidth for Quality Streaming Video and Audio will not be a problem!

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by alchav21

Vilya it's good to have your Banter back, but take it easy it's not good for you. I was mainly clarifying the Posts. Yes the Studios still Profit on Discs but it keeps declining. You're right Streaming has it's problems, but IMO it's the Future. Direct Access Digital Server has to be better than Disc Distribution. Movie Theaters now get their Content from a Server, why not do the same with Streaming Movies and TV Shows. IMO we are headed for Gigabit+ Fiber Networks, so getting the Bandwidth for Quality Streaming Video and Audio will not be a problem!

Worry not; our "banter" is actually a welcome diversion for me.

Even so, merely repeating your unsupported assertions is tiresome. Get some new material, will ya?

Disc sales are declining, but that is not the same thing as profit margins shrinking. You have no evidence to support this claim; it is just your opinion. Therein lies the problem: you repeat your opinions often, but you never offer any evidence, or even reasoning, to support them.

Streaming is no more the future than is cable TV. Both are present day commonplace ways to watch content. The question is not whether streaming has a future, it clearly does, but when will it be profitable? It has been, and it still is, a money pit.

Accessing a remote server, such as is the case with streaming services, is not better than disc distribution because the consumer has no control over the content upon that server and it requires an internet connection to access it. The consumer is dependent upon two things which are beyond their control. They must also pay ever increasing and recurring fees for that access.

Movie theaters download movies from remote servers, often via a secure satellite link, to their local server; there is no "streaming" involved at all. The only high quality download service on par with 4K discs available to consumers is the wildly expensive and entirely proprietary Kaleidescape system. Have you ever priced one of those set-ups? Kaleidescape has no chance of gaining any significant penetrance in the home video market under their current pricing structure.

Existing internet infrastructure has allowed for streaming quality to equal, and even exceed, physical media quality for several years already, but the streaming providers simply can't afford to offer that level of quality and streaming customers are readily satisfied with what they receive now. The streaming providers have no incentive to offer better quality and there is no significant consumer demand for it. Doing so would only increase the provider's bandwidth costs and worsen their losses.

You're a case in a point. As frugal as you are, how much more would you be willing to pay per month, and per streaming service, to have streaming quality equal that of 4K discs? I bet that you wouldn't pay even a dollar more to get it and nor would most streaming customers like you.

The way to offer better streaming has been here for years; it is the will that is lacking. No desire on the part of the provider or the consumer to make it happen. Convenience and economy define what most streaming customers want; survey after survey has shown that streaming customers rank quality as a very distant and low priority.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by Vilya

Worry not; our "banter" is actually a welcome diversion for me.

Even so, merely repeating your unsupported assertions is tiresome. Get some new material, will ya?

Disc sales are declining, but that is not the same thing as profit margins shrinking. You have no evidence to support this claim; it is just your opinion. Therein lies the problem: you repeat your opinions often, but you never offer any evidence, or even reasoning, to support them.

Streaming is no more the future than is cable TV. Both are present day commonplace ways to watch content. The question is not whether streaming has a future, it clearly does, but when will it be profitable? It has been, and it still is, a money pit.

Accessing a remote server, such as is the case with streaming services, is not better than disc distribution because the consumer has no control over the content upon that server and it requires an internet connection to access it. The consumer is dependent upon two things which are beyond their control. They must also pay ever increasing and recurring fees for that access.

Movie theaters download movies from remote servers, often via a secure satellite link, to their local server; there is no "streaming" involved at all. The only high quality download service on par with 4K discs available to consumers is the wildly expensive and entirely proprietary Kaleidescape system. Have you ever priced one of those set-ups? Kaleidescape has no chance of gaining any significant penetrance in the home video market under their current pricing structure.

Existing internet infrastructure has allowed for streaming quality to equal, and even exceed, physical media quality for several years already, but the streaming providers simply can't afford to offer that level of quality and streaming customers are readily satisfied with what they receive now. The streaming providers have no incentive to offer better quality and there is no significant consumer demand for it. Doing so would only increase the provider's bandwidth costs and worsen their losses.

You're a case in a point. As frugal as you are, how much more would you be willing to pay per month, and per streaming service, to have streaming quality equal that of 4K discs? I bet that you wouldn't pay even a dollar more to get it and nor would most streaming customers like you.

The way to offer better streaming has been here for years; it is the will that is lacking. No desire on the part of the provider or the consumer to make it happen. Convenience and economy define what most streaming customers want; survey after survey has shown that streaming customers rank quality as a very distant and low priority.

Streaming is the lowest common denominator. Very soon, it will be treated as such with a model of theatrical, then PVOD, then VOD,
then disc and finally streaming, with a year being the timespan from theatrical to streaming subscription. I believe this will become the norm. There also has to be at least 4 months between theatrical and PVOD and then another 3 months before regular VOD. The early streaming release needs to stop and the studios will realise that eventually. Streaming should be the last resort. Once on a streaming service, it should stay there for a year then be leased out to other services (FAST for example).

Finally, there will be way fewer scripted shows/films and far more reality tv, cooking shows and filler. Not sure how Disney will cope with this new reality (in my opinion) but that’s what I think will happen.

[Steedeel]

I can’t wait for the Hellraiser: Quartet of Torment 4K boxset. Genuinely excited as I loved the first one but for some bizarre reason, I never got around to seeing the (filmed) sequels. It’s rare these days that I get to watch catalogue that I haven’t seen before and in 4k to boot.

The general view is that the first two are really good and 3 and 4 have their fans but don’t match the quality of the first two.

It’s been a joy revisiting films in 4k, I am completely hooked now. The Lost Boys, The Truman Show, Apocalypse Now, Shawshank, Batman and Batman Returns, Beetlejuice, Tremors, ID4, etc..

Glorious.

[RevolverOcelScott]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

I can’t wait for the Hellraiser: Quartet of Torment 4K boxset. Genuinely excited as I loved the first one but for some bizarre reason, I never got around to seeing the (filmed) sequels. It’s rare these days that I get to watch catalogue that I haven’t seen before and in 4k to boot.

The general view is that the first two are really good and 3 and 4 have their fans but don’t match the quality of the first two.

It’s been a joy revisiting films in 4k, I am completely hooked now. The Lost Boys, The Truman Show, Apocalypse Now, Shawshank, Batman and Batman Returns, Beetlejuice, Tremors, ID4, etc..

Glorious.

Hellraiser 2 is great, 3 and 4 are fun, but not nearly as good.

I'm with you on the revisiting. My wife and I just watched the 4K of Truman Show, hadn't seen it since it ran theatrically. Still a great film!

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by RevolverOcelScott

Hellraiser 2 is great, 3 and 4 are fun, but not nearly as good.

I'm with you on the revisiting. My wife and I just watched the 4K of Truman Show, hadn't seen it since it ran theatrically. Still a great film!

It feels like watching (and hearing) them afresh. The Lost Boys took me back to happier times for example. I used to watch that film quite often on a worn out VHS tape. It looks and sounds fantastic.

[Lee A Stewart]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

Streaming is the lowest common denominator. Very soon, it will be treated as such with a model of theatrical, then PVOD, then VOD,
then disc and finally streaming, with a year being the timespan from theatrical to streaming subscription. I believe this will become the norm. There also has to be at least 4 months between theatrical and PVOD and then another 3 months before regular VOD. The early streaming release needs to stop and the studios will realise that eventually. Streaming should be the last resort. Once on a streaming service, it should stay there for a year then be leased out to other services (FAST for example).

Finally, there will be way fewer scripted shows/films and far more reality tv, cooking shows and filler. Not sure how Disney will cope with this new reality (in my opinion) but that’s what I think will happen.

Current events aren't following your plan:

Both The Flash and Barbie are schedule to hit MAX in the fall. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny for October on Disney+. No scheduled disc announcement yet.

[Wendell R. Breland]

Originally Posted by Vilya

Worry not; our "banter" is actually a welcome diversion for me.

Even so, merely repeating your unsupported assertions is tiresome. Get some new material, will ya?

The important thing with streamers, it must be cheap, A/V quality is of very little importance according to a recent survey (below).

That poster has some weird fascination with files being played from a server. IIRC his old Panasonic Blu-ray player will play certain file types from a server via UPnP (DLNA) and SMB.

[Show spoiler]

[Wendell R. Breland]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

Streaming is the lowest common denominator. Very soon, it will be treated as such with a model of theatrical, then PVOD, then VOD, then disc and finally streaming, with a year being the timespan from theatrical to streaming subscription.

The studios with DTC are losing a lot of money and under a lot of pressure, as such they will continue to throw good money after bad. IMHO, they will continue a “every studio for themselves” and will never create a unified DTC business model that could be quite successful.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by Wendell R. Breland

The studios with DTC are losing a lot of money and under a lot of pressure, as such they will continue to throw good money after bad. IMHO, they will continue a “every studio for themselves” and will never create a unified DTC business model that could be quite successful.

I believe a reckoning is coming. (Sounds like a trailer )