Physical & Digital EST: The Future of Home Video Discussion Thread

[stmhlm]

About SD cards, what if they could eliminate the need of a player, unlike discs, and be made possible to insert straight into your TV, still with encryption like discs, but big enough to allow less compression with better compression methods, closing in on the actual master in terms of quality? I mean if one is allowed to dream, I'd take it, but not sure SD cards should be completely disregarded. Maybe in a future with 12-bit displays?

[crutzulee]

I've been lurking for a bit, but am a little shocked to come in here lately and read about these experiences of physical media not lasting forever like they're purported to do...

[bhampton]

I try to watch any discs when I get them and replace any that are defective.

Beyond that, they are the most reliable things I've ever known.

[stmhlm]

Originally Posted by bhampton

I try to watch any discs when I get them and replace any that are defective.

Beyond that, they are the most reliable things I've ever known.

Removing the player requirement can really open up the market, no?

[apollo828]

Originally Posted by stmhlm

About SD cards, what if they could eliminate the need of a player, unlike discs, and be made possible to insert straight into your TV, still with encryption like discs, but big enough to allow less compression with better compression methods, closing in on the actual master in terms of quality?

That's really not going to work. Part of the AACS scheme requires you to operate gear that you can't get to read certain portions of the disc, at least not normally. Yes, the drive can read these portions, but it's all low-level stuff that the user can't directly access. That's why I can't just burn a disc from an encrypted disc. (I mean, I can burn such a disc. It'll just be useless if placed in a player.) SD cards would need a similar mechanism which doesn't really exist.

Originally Posted by crutzulee

I've been lurking for a bit, but am a little shocked to come in here lately and read about these experiences of physical media not lasting forever like they're purported to do...

Nothing is forever. Best case, the discs are pressed with care and will last many decades. (40-year-old Japanese CDs still play just fine, for example.) Worst case, they implode after a few months, or even right out of the shrinkwrap. (Anybody who bought an Eraser LaserDisc back in the day can tell you about that one! Sony DADC and the PDO plant really were horrific, not to mention cheap pressing plants in places like India and Russia.)

This all assumes that you have the appropriate gear to actually read the discs. For example, I'm guessing the number of people who will be able to read UHD discs in, say, 2040 will be far lower than the number who can read them today. At least vinyl is a simple idea, where a needle with a piece of paper wrapped around it will yield audio (if awful audio). Optical media is far more complicated, so you can't necessarily rely on DIY solutions.

(This is another reason why I believe in user backups but that argument was flogged into dust decades ago.)

[stmhlm]

Originally Posted by apollo828

That's really not going to work. Part of the AACS scheme requires you to operate gear that you can't get to read certain portions of the disc, at least not normally. Yes, the drive can read these portions, but it's all low-level stuff that the user can't directly access. That's why I can't just burn a disc from an encrypted disc. (I mean, I can burn such a disc. It'll just be useless if placed in a player.) SD cards would need a similar mechanism which doesn't really exist.

It's quite naive to think it cannot be invented or made possible? Money drives everything, remember.

[PenguinInfinity]

Originally Posted by stmhlm

About SD cards, what if they could eliminate the need of a player, unlike discs, and be made possible to insert straight into your TV, still with encryption like discs, but big enough to allow less compression with better compression methods, closing in on the actual master in terms of quality? I mean if one is allowed to dream, I'd take it, but not sure SD cards should be completely disregarded. Maybe in a future with 12-bit displays?

SD cards don't last anywhere near as long as discs.

Originally Posted by stmhlm

It's quite naive to think it cannot be invented or made possible? Money drives everything, remember.

What would be the financial incentive to invent a new physical format? The studios prefer to release everything on streaming.

[stmhlm]

Originally Posted by PenguinInfinity

SD cards don't last anywhere near as long as discs.

With some R&D it would be impossible to improve in the future? (The Future of Home Video Discussion Thread)

Originally Posted by PenguinInfinity

What would be the financial incentive to invent a new physical format?

The very same incentive that currently has them spitting out discs, week after week.
The incentive is strengthened if there is more profit to be made, that's quite clear on my end.

[stmhlm]

I'll outline some major points on what I think can have physical media flourish.

(1) Availability - Remove the requirement of a dedicated player and/or playback device, integrate the ability to play/read SD cards directly from your average consumer TV. This is obviously a major point, humans want things for free and ideally it shouldn't consume any space, every spouse would agree on this, so it's basically inarguable.

(2) Storage - SD cards are smaller and more durable than Blu-ray discs, physically. Unlike discs, there is no delicate and/or sensitive optical reading surface that requires its own polypropylene storage case taking up shelves. Instead, if one wanted to, about 100x SD cards could really be stored in a single medium to large match box, there is no fundamental need to ship SD cards in cases in a similar size that of Blu-rays. Again, spouses may have an impact.

(3) Price - To have the physical media market really flourish, you need to reduce prices to increase the amount of adopters. You can only increase the amount of adopters by abiding point (1) and point (2) where point (3) i.e. this point, really drives it home. Streaming have lots of adopters due to more reasons than just price, but price alone is undoubtedly responsible for having your average DVD and Blu-ray consumer not investing in latest format, 4K Blu-ray. With the elimination of having to buy a dedicated playback device, if the price is right, I don't see why some SD cards couldn't slip down in some Walmart carts?

I can't solve convenience, and yes, I love my spouse, the possibility is intriguing, higher quality is always welcome.

[PenguinInfinity]

Originally Posted by stmhlm

The very same incentive that currently has them spitting out discs, week after week.
The incentive is strengthened if there is more profit to be made, that's quite clear on my end.

You think there are a lot of people that aren't interested in discs but would pay a premium for SD cards?

[PenguinInfinity]

Originally Posted by stmhlm

(3) Price - To have the physical media market really flourish, you need to reduce prices to increase the amount of adopters. You can only increase the amount of adopters by abiding point (1) and point (2) where point (3) i.e. this point, really drives it home. Streaming have lots of adopters due to more reasons than just price, but price alone is undoubtedly responsible for having your average DVD and Blu-ray consumer not investing in latest format, 4K Blu-ray. With the elimination of having to buy a dedicated playback device, if the price is right, I don't see why some SD cards couldn't slip down in some Walmart carts?

If they have to drastically reduce prices then they would also drastically reduce profits. Making a new format that sells for a lower price than the old formats makes absolutely no financial sense.

[Vilya]

SD cards are too tiny for slipcovers. No sale.

[PenguinInfinity]

Originally Posted by Vilya

SD cards are too tiny for slipcovers. No sale.

That's a good point. SD cards in tiny cases wouldn't appeal to collectors that like to display their collections. And it would be ridiculous to try to market a new physical format to anyone but collectors. Casual viewers have already moved on to streaming.

[Vilya]

If the size of the physical media is the issue, and the desire to remove the need for a physical media player, you might as well just perfect downloads. Store the file yourself on HDs, SSDs, USB sticks, SD cards, microSD cards, Tupperware, whatever, or store the files in the cloud and eliminate the need for any storage device. If we're going to dream, dream.

[PenguinInfinity]

Originally Posted by Vilya

If the size of the physical media is the issue, and the desire to remove the need for a physical media player, you might as well just perfect downloads. Store the file yourself on HDs, SSDs, USB sticks, SD cards, microSD cards, whatever, or store the files in the cloud and eliminate the need for any storage device. If we're going to dream, dream.

If the laws drastically improved then downloads and streaming would be just fine and there would be no need for physical media.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by PenguinInfinity

If the laws drastically improved then downloads and streaming would be just fine and there would be no need for physical media.

I would prefer downloads (minus the proprietary DRM) to my own devices. That way when I go to play a movie I do not have to worry about the fluctuating nature of my ever unreliable ISP. It would also give me that important feeling of control over what I purchased.

[PenguinInfinity]

Originally Posted by Vilya

I would prefer downloads (minus the proprietary DRM) to my own devices. That way when I go to play a movie I do not have to worry about the fluctuating nature of my ever unreliable ISP. It would also give me that important feeling of control over what I purchased.

Absolutely. If everything was DRM-free downloads and we had the legal ability to resell them then I would have absolutely no problem with physical media being gone.

If we're going to dream, dream.

[apollo828]

Originally Posted by PenguinInfinity

What would be the financial incentive to invent a new physical format? The studios prefer to release everything on streaming.

This is something tech nerds constantly overlook. Assuming you believed people at horror conventions, there's a killing to be made if Sony or whomever would make brand new VCRs. That's not going to happen. It'd cost far too much to retool a factory to build a deck, not to mention needing staff to design one. (Add extra if it's going to include line TBC, frame TBC, HDMI outs, and other bells & whistles.) Even many people crazy enough to watch tapes are content finding some scrap heap at Goodwill and accepting whatever comes out of it, if anything.

By the same token, you'd need specialized SD card readers, and possibly specialized cards, in order to make this harebrained idea work. You'd also need a standards body for obvious reasons, much like the BDA. It's not going to happen. Short of some weirdo hitting the jackpot and plowing all their money into a money-losing proposition, nobody's going to design any of this stuff, much less follow the many stages required to develop something that can be sold at the dwindling numbers of stores that still sell physical media.

[stmhlm]

Originally Posted by PenguinInfinity

You think there are a lot of people that aren't interested in discs but would pay a premium for SD cards?

You're not getting it, the goal would be to increase the amount of adopters by reducing prices = more profit.
You cannot afford to make it a premium, it can offer premium quality, but not at a premium charge.

Originally Posted by PenguinInfinity

If they have to drastically reduce prices then they would also drastically reduce profits. Making a new format that sells for a lower price than the old formats makes absolutely no financial sense.

It does, it makes 100% perfect financial sense, the appeal needs to be made bigger, this is the single issue.

Originally Posted by Vilya

SD cards are too tiny for slipcovers. No sale.

I mean, print some paper if that's what sells, it's not a thousand bucks.

Originally Posted by Vilya

If the size of the physical media is the issue, and the desire to remove the need for a physical media player, you might as well just perfect downloads. Store the file yourself on HDs, SSDs, USB sticks, SD cards, microSD cards, Tupperware, whatever, or store the files in the cloud and eliminate the need for any storage device. If we're going to dream, dream.

With downloads, you are feeding spoons to copy/spread/upload, SD cards could be encrypted, as could the reader.

Originally Posted by PenguinInfinity

If the laws drastically improved then downloads and streaming would be just fine and there would be no need for physical media.

We are talking the future of home video, you're thinking out of your collector's perspective. Physical media needs your average consumer, and your average consumer isn't going to buy HDDs/SSDs for storing 10TB of data required to buy movies. Todays 4Ks are 50-100GB per movie, imagine a future media, just forget downloads, that's rubbish.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by stmhlm

I mean, print some paper if that's what sells, it's not a thousand bucks

A postage stamp sized slipcover wouldn't interest anyone and if you were to package a SD card into a container large enough for an existing slipcover it would be wasteful and environmentally frowned upon. It would also be counter productive to your saving shelf space argument.

Originally Posted by stmhlm

With downloads, you are feeding spoons to copy/spread/upload, SD cards could be encrypted, as could the reader.

Encryption has done very little to stymie piracy. The evidence of that is easily verified.

Music files are sold as downloads without any encryption and the practice is profitable. The same *might* be possible with movies if the right balance of pricing and convenience were offered. Large hard drives are increasingly inexpensive (many of us already own them) and there's always cloud storage as an alternative. The real problem is that the studios want full control over how we access their movies and any form of physical media, or downloads, runs contrary to that desire; they can't control what we possess and they hate that with a passion.

Originally Posted by stmhlm

Physical media needs your average consumer, and your average consumer isn't going to buy HDDs/SSDs for storing 10TB of data required to buy movies. Todays 4Ks are 50-100GB per movie, imagine a future media, just forget downloads, that's rubbish.

Your average consumer doesn't buy physical media at all. They also don't buy digital copies even though their TVs have the necessary apps to play them with no dedicated media player needed. They use subscription streaming.

People have been spending less on buying movies every year since 2011. This trend is not going to reverse itself just because movies get packaged differently, be it on SD cards or anything else. I'd love to be wrong about that, but 14 years of sales data has documented this decline.

Forget downloads? Don't tell that to Kaleidescape; it's their whole business model albeit an insanely overpriced one, but one that still has its devotees. All of the digital storefronts offer downloads, too, for offline viewing, so downloads have their place. The problem remains that people have mostly moved on from spending $15-$30 for a single movie no mater what form it takes. They can have 1-2 streaming services a month for the same money and that is what the average consumer prefers. The studios prefer it, too.