Physical & Digital EST: The Future of Home Video Discussion Thread

[Vilya]

In 2011 consumers spent $9.5 billion buying movies and TV shows on physical media and digital copies combined. By 2022, that shrunk to just $4.1 billion.

https://www.degonline.org/industry-data/

People's behavior has fundamentally changed. They're not buying very much; they're subscribing instead.

Physical media is for die hard enthusiasts and collectors and we are a very small minority. A new physical format might interest us, but it is very unlikely to entice people who have moved on to subscription streaming.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by apollo828

nobody's going to design any of this stuff

Exactly. That's why there is not any known, or even rumored, discussion by any company to design a new physical format. There are no concepts being mentioned, yet alone displayed, at any of the trade shows and there are no groups discussing standards for a new format. The silence from industry is deafening.

[deatheats]

Originally Posted by Vilya

Exactly. That's why there is not any known, or even rumored, discussion by any company to design a new physical format. There are no concepts being mentioned, yet alone displayed, at any of the trade shows and there are no groups discussing standards for a new format. The silence from industry is deafening.

But…the industry is in a bind. They know there is money to be made by selling to the collector / enthusiast market and that purely digital doesn’t have the same appeal physical media does (even outside of the quality differences). For example, in the audio world where streaming is the norm and lossless is widely available, vinyl persists and record stores continue to thrive by selling to the collector market.

From a technical standpoint 4k Blu-ray doesn’t need much improvement. Sure 3d support and 48Hz would have been nice, but it doesn’t need to improve to satisfy its main objective, storing films digitally. So how long will companies release 4k discs and just as importantly players/readers? Given how successful the boutique labels seem to be doing, I’d imagine quite some time.

For those fond of their home servers, the first generation of HAMR Hard Drives will be hitting the market this year with 30TB capacities & 50TB in the pipeline a few years out.

[stmhlm]

Look, if there is any future for physical media at all, i.e. more to it than it being a niche, you need an end-to-end solution that offers playability out of the box, downloads being dependent on HDD/SSD space just can't be justified, it's not like HDDs/SSDs will become a single buck. Also, we're really discussing a future format, you would need to implement it in such a manner that it speaks to all people, I mean if there is no future for physical media or you're not optimistic about it, why bother with this thread at all, you might as well remove it? I never said your average consumer buys DVDs or Blu-rays, I said "your average DVD and Blu-ray consumer" and that we need "your average consumer" for the physical media market to really flourish, big difference.

I think one needs to think out of the box, if you're stuck to thinking of how physical media looks today, you'd really need to think differently, because it's obviously not catching on. Why it's not catching on I mentioned in my three points, availability, storage and price, but you can't quite challenge the convenience of streaming. I'm just imagining a future where physical media can be had in the shape similar in size and functionality of an SD card. I think it's brilliant, being able to insert it in your average consumer TV, really, it's what physical media needs, mass consumption, access for all, no investment.

Physical media need prices to drop, dare I say $4.99 per movie, no player required? We could discuss prices for ages, but this is what physical media needs, it needs to appeal to everyone at "shockingly" low prices, this way you'll achieve the numbers of adopters needed to match taking on the profit formula of streaming (lots of adopters at low prices) it really needs to be priced so low that one's kid is like "Mom! Can we have a movie? Please!" mom says "Well, how much are they?" kid says "low price" mom says "Well take two then, or wait, here's an offer, three for..." mom says to other son "Which one do you want?" Call me stupid but this is exactly what physical media needs, if you're stuck whining about covers and slips I'm not sure how to break it to you, but like get over it? Print your own? I'd take a coverless form of high quality flourishing physical media any day of the bloody week. I'm not saying it has to be completely coverless, I'm just saying having a cover and slip focus is the wrong type of focus.

[PenguinInfinity]

Originally Posted by stmhlm

Physical media need prices to drop, dare I say $4.99 per movie, no player required?

If the studios wanted to sell movies en masse for $4.99 each they could easily do so via streaming. Why would they choose to sell them on physical media for $4.99 instead? The studios don't care if physical media is successful or not they just want to make the most money from each movie. There is no reason for the studios to encourage anyone to choose physical media over streaming, especially not if they have to lower prices.

It makes way more financial sense to market streaming to the masses and have physical media be a higher priced premium product.

[stmhlm]

Originally Posted by PenguinInfinity

Why would the studios support a physical format that makes them less money per movie than streaming?

Why not make money both ways? Have you seen Oppenheimer's physical media sales strength?

Originally Posted by PenguinInfinity

The studios don't want physical media to be more successful than streaming.

It would be dumb not to pick up the consumers not already fans of streaming, in a new cheap and easily accessible format, not entirely convinced about 4K Blu-ray and the price involved.

[stmhlm]

Originally Posted by PenguinInfinity

It makes way more financial sense to market streaming to the masses and have physical media be a higher priced premium product.

Premium is what limits its potential, all the premiums currently involved are just obstacles for it to grow, it's stupid. If you really want to make money you make the product cheap, there is more than one audience, serve them all. Basically unrealized profit, not everyone agrees with streaming, not everyone agrees with 4K Blu-ray, we're missing something that's in between, why not a low cost investment readily accessible solution that's an alternatve to streaming? It's only the fault of the studios for clinging tight to streaming, there is more money to be made in my opinion.

[PenguinInfinity]

Originally Posted by stmhlm

It would be dumb not to pick up the consumers not already fans of streaming, in a new cheap and easily accessible format, not entirely convinced about 4K Blu-ray and the price involved.

That's why DVD and Blu-ray are still being made as well. Anyone who's not interested in streaming probably already has at least a DVD player and if they don't they can buy one for $20.

You think that there are a lot of people who aren't currently buying movies in any format that will suddenly be enticed by SD cards (or any other new format)?

[stmhlm]

Originally Posted by PenguinInfinity

You think that there are a lot of people who aren't currently buying movies in any format that will suddenly be enticed by SD cards (or any other new format)?

You know, down the line, players no longer being made (The Future of Home Video Discussion Thread) yes, I can see a use case.

[PenguinInfinity]

Originally Posted by stmhlm

Premium is what limits its potential, all the premiums currently involved are just obstacles for it to grow, it's stupid. If you really want to make money you make the product cheap, there is more than one audience, serve them all. Basically unrealized profit, not everyone agrees with streaming, not everyone agrees with 4K Blu-ray, we're missing something that's in between, why not a low cost investment readily accessible solution that's an alternatve to streaming? It's only the fault of the studios for clinging tight to streaming, there is more money to be made in my opinion.

If they introduce a very low cost alternative they would probably gain some additional customers. But they would also lose a ton of money by causing customers who are currently buying Blu-ray or streaming to switch to the cheaper alternative instead.

If they invented a new long-lasting low cost alternative to discs I would certainly switch to it. But the studios wouldn't benefit from that at all: it would reduce my total spending.

Originally Posted by stmhlm

You know, down the line, players no longer being made (The Future of Home Video Discussion Thread) yes, I can see a use case.

What would cause that to happen? Any company can make a player.

And even if manufacturers do stop making players what do you think is going to happen to the hundreds of millions of players that have already been made? What is going to cause all of them to stop functioning?

[bhampton]

You can put movies on SD drives.

I don't recommend it but it is possible.

I think I'll keep buying and using the discs. It may indeed become niche because people don't often think for themselves. Most People go with the trends which is how trends happen.

There's no lack of players though. The disc version of PS5 is a UHD player.

[stmhlm]

Physical media is not going to grow if the appeal is not made bigger, we can leave the discussion there.

[PenguinInfinity]

Originally Posted by stmhlm

Physical media is not going to grow if the appeal is not made bigger, we can leave the discussion there.

Studios have no incentive to make physical media grow.

[bhampton]

By chance, do you remember the minidisc ?



They tried to make the CD something new and tried to say it was better.

I remember. Ultimately it didn't work.

I think re-inventing Physical Media isn't the solution at the moment. Stability is what I think PM needs and by that I mean no more do overs.

Just my view.

[stmhlm]

Originally Posted by PenguinInfinity

Studios have no incentive to make physical media grow.

Then close the thread, lol.

[PenguinInfinity]

Originally Posted by stmhlm

Then close the thread, lol.

We all recognize that physical media's future is as a niche. But that doesn't mean we enjoy it any less.

[bhampton]

I think subscription fatigue is the best hope for physical media.

Subscription fatigue is real because subscriptions basically suck.

"Life is what happens to you while you're busy making other plans"

People can't afford price gauged everything so they will subscribe to a service that removes forgotten subscriptions.

At some point someone will realize subscriptions suck because they do.

I still get what I want. Most folks would rather take what they get.

[PenguinInfinity]

As terrible as it is, I think widespread censorship of streaming is the best hope for physical media. As more and more movies and TV shows have scenes or episodes removed on all streaming platforms (including "purchased" movies and TV shows) people will realize that the only way to ensure that your favorites don't get altered is to buy them on physical media. Everything is offensive to someone so it's anyone's guess what will be removed in the future.

[bhampton]

Three little pigs outgrew their home.

The first little pig decided to buy movies online. But licensing agreements expired when renegotiated and his movies disappeared.

The second little pig subscribed to a service but the service raised prices until they couldn't raise prices anymore and then they added ads and surveys and sold personal data.

The third little pig collected physical media and lived happily ever after.

[PenguinInfinity]

If iTunes, Amazon Video, Google, Vudu, etc... are required by law to stop using the words "buy" and "purchase" that will also cause some people to switch to physical media. But the total number of people buying movies has drastically dropped so it won't be enough to overtake subscriptions.