81:19 Nielsen/VideoScan Weekly Sales Numbers - Page 271 - Blu-ray Forum

The Guardian · 11-17-2007, 02:05 AM

Sony doesn't really have a choice, if (for example) Sharp wants to cut their price to $349, they can.

The BDA as a whole has only minimal "control" over member prices, otherwise it would be collusion (illegal). That's where Toshiba as a single entity has an advantage. On the other hand, Toshiba has (apparently) used that power to scare away even Venturer from making HD DVD players...

Want a free movie deal that counts in the Nielsons though? Why not offer a "Buy 5 Blu-rays with this player, FREE after mail-in rebate! And P.S. We'll send you 5 more with your rebate!"...

As far as what they're actually doing, I AM seeing a lot of combo deals from ALL the BD manufacturers around here, combining with the TVs...

sj001 · 11-17-2007, 02:11 AM

I really think that if this trend stays roughly the way it is, around 60:40 or so, that WB will change sides, surely they can see the LONG TERM benefit of this. In the short term, yes, they gain money from both sides, but to END this war, is to bring in tons of people waiting for it to end. I talked to 2 different people today who said they were waiting on this. 65:35, not bad at all, that still blows HD-DVD away, and believe it or not Chuck & Larry did do well in the theaters, but it won't float. The Rat will float though.

PrinceLH · 11-17-2007, 02:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sj001

I really think that if this trend stays roughly the way it is, around 60:40 or so, that WB will change sides, surely they can see the LONG TERM benefit of this. In the short term, yes, they gain money from both sides, but to END this war, is to bring in tons of people waiting for it to end. I talked to 2 different people today who said they were waiting on this. 65:35, not bad at all, that still blows HD-DVD away, and believe it or not Chuck & Larry did do well in the theaters, but it won't float. The Rat will float though.

I would like to think that it was the case, but who knows what kind of dirty dealing that Microsoft has going on. When the BDA decided to take a holiday, last summer, we ended up getting rocked with the news from Paramount. Do we really want to leave ourselves open to another such attack? Now is the time to really go after them and keep them on the defensive.

SingingTheBlues · 11-17-2007, 02:31 AM

I don't see WB changing sides at 60:40. Maybe at a consistent 80:20, or higher.

The problem is, I see both formats surviving next year, mainly because of next year's new release schedule. Have you looked at it? We kick their rear for the next few months, but next year, the competition has a very strong new release schedule.

Dual-format players will become big-ticket items a year from now.

PrinceLH · 11-17-2007, 02:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SingingTheBlues

I don't see WB changing sides at 60:40. Maybe at a consistent 80:20, or higher.

The problem is, I see both formats surviving next year, mainly because of next year's new release schedule. Have you looked at it? We kick their rear for the next few months, but next year, the competition has a very strong new release schedule.

Dual-format players will become big-ticket items a year from now.

I agree with you on this. There are a number of good titles, mostly Universal, and we could see that dreaded stalemate. I don't want to wait forever for some of the DUD exclusives and another year of this is very depressing. This is just going to keep getting worse and neither format will be accepted by the mainstream media. The BDA must work extremely hard to get either Warner or Universal to go Blu exclusive, within the next six months. Personally, that's all of the time that I'm giving them to put an end to this foolishness. Another factor is this; what happens when we get most of the BD titles that we want and have nothing else to buy? Where do our numbers go then?

SingingTheBlues · 11-17-2007, 02:43 AM

Yeah, I will probably go neutral by next year if nothing changes, BUT, and this is a very big BUT for all to know.... I don't see myself purchasing more than a few HD-DUD discs.

Therein lies the difference between BR and HD-DUD -- there's a lot more to buy that's worthwhile on BR.

The Don · 11-17-2007, 02:45 AM

this has probably already been mentioned...

but has anyone read the article they had this week on the HD forums about the fanboys on both sides?...

it is getting kinda out of hand right now...

PrinceLH · 11-17-2007, 02:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SingingTheBlues

Yeah, I will probably go neutral by next year if nothing changes, BUT, and this is a very big BUT for all to know.... I don't see myself purchasing more than a few HD-DUD discs.

Therein lies the difference between BR and HD-DUD -- there's a lot more to buy that's worthwhile on BR.

We are of the same mind my friend. I went Blu because of the better capacity to add lossless audio tracks and better codex's, if need be. If we cannot get the titles that we want, then what are we supposed to do? All of the BOGO sales have allowed me to buy up catalogue titles that I enjoy, but I'm now finding it difficult to get titles on Disney and Sony, that I might really enjoy. Universal, however, has a good number of titles that I really want to buy. I just hate the thought of those useless combo disks, that often do not play. I hope the BDA realizes that we're not going to stand around forever and buy whatever junk they decide to release. FOX is the last bastion of titles that I would like to buy, but found their prices restrictive.

PrinceLH · 11-17-2007, 02:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Don

this has probably already been mentioned...

but has anyone read the article they had this week on the HD forums about the fanboys on both sides?...

it is getting kinda out of hand right now...

I was in the middle of many of those wars, at places like AVS and HD Digest and just said to hell with it. I've pretty much stayed here, the last little while and supported the website that supports my favourite HD format.

oldmike · 11-17-2007, 02:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SingingTheBlues

I don't see WB changing sides at 60:40. Maybe at a consistent 80:20, or higher.

The problem is, I see both formats surviving next year, mainly because of next year's new release schedule. Have you looked at it? We kick their rear for the next few months, but next year, the competition has a very strong new release schedule.

Dual-format players will become big-ticket items a year from now.

if that happens then we all lose thats what so many dont get
if there is no one format then 90% of the US will not get the new format
thats just how it is and they will go the way of laserdisc
EB i HOPE sees that and will not let it happen

Elandyll · 11-17-2007, 03:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SingingTheBlues

I don't see WB changing sides at 60:40. Maybe at a consistent 80:20, or higher.

The problem is, I see both formats surviving next year, mainly because of next year's new release schedule. Have you looked at it? We kick their rear for the next few months, but next year, the competition has a very strong new release schedule.

Dual-format players will become big-ticket items a year from now.

This makes little sense actually.
Why wouldn't Warner change side on a 60:40 (or above rather, as the rest of the year will show), on a ratio that would have been maintained all year long, and when one of the side (the losing one) has only maintained that ratio (40 or less) thanks to large unsustainable price dumps on equipment?

Warner is already giving all the signs about wanting to chose a side (cf Blu Ray festival and latest interview about the drop of the Total HD format).
Now, we all know the reasons in favor of Blu Ray (higher sale volumes, more companies having adopted the format, better technology, spec now finalized, better studio protection with BD+ and possibility of region coding...), but what has HD DVD to offer?

More standalone players? Why would they care? PS3's are starting to represent a vast (and increasing fast) market, and the Blu Ray standalones are going to go down in price as well as the market matures.
Beyond that .. replication cost? Already debunked, by none other than some of the largest replicators. HD DVD/DVD hybrid? Already shown as possible if there was an interest on Blu Ray, but what's the point really?

All business oriented, logical deductions, point to Blu Ray as long as the software sale ratio stays well above 50:50. And lets be frank. The only time of the year when HD DVD has been even close was on the Transformers week (easily the most anticipated film of the year on DVD or High Def), facing a virtually inexistant release week for Blu Ray (only a BOGO -50% off- on catalog titles for 2 studios).

Fankly, and looking at things with logic, this week is yet again a nice victory, specially when you think about the 90k A2's that have been dumped so far below cost that they have been forbidden (the sales) in four states ...

SingingTheBlues · 11-17-2007, 03:05 AM

I guess I disagree with that, Mike. If dual-format players are out there, then people won't care if they buy a red box or a blue box, so long as prices are affordable. Stores won't care if they're stocking a red box or a blue box.

Overall, the format war has (so far) been beneficial for consumers. We have lower disc prices and lower player prices because of it.

What will kill these formats are: high prices above that of DVD, and for now, TVs that are too expensive for the average consumer.

That and wives who consider a large TV an eyesore.

BTBuck1 · 11-17-2007, 03:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SingingTheBlues

The problem is, I see both formats surviving next year, mainly because of next year's new release schedule. Have you looked at it? We kick their rear for the next few months, but next year, the competition has a very strong new release schedule.

how so?

January 08, 2008
Galaxina
The Invasion
Mobsters
The Pianist
The Road to Bali / The Road to Rio (Double Feature)
White Noise
White Noise 2: The Light
Zodiac: Director's Cut

January 22, 2008
Channels
Method Man: Live from the Sunset Strip

January 29, 2008
King of California

February 05, 2008
The Brave One

February 12, 2008
The Amateurs
No Reservations

February 26, 2008
Rain in the Mountains

April 08, 2008
Dead Fish
IMAX: Coral Reef Adventure
IMAX: Dolphins
IMAX: Fighter Pilot - Operation Red Flag
IMAX: Mystery of the Nile
IMAX: The Alps
IMAX: The Living Sea

May 06, 2008
Twister

January 01, 2008
Shoot 'Em Up
War

January 02, 2008
Resident Evil
Resident Evil Trilogy
Resident Evil: Extinction

January 08, 2008
3:10 to Yuma (2007)
Con Air
Dragon Wars
The Invasion
Killing Machine / Shogun's Ninja (Double Feature)
Man on Fire
Night of the Werewolf / Vengeance of the Zombies
The Rock
Sister Street Fighter / Sister Street Fighter 2 (Double Feature)
Sunshine

January 15, 2008
Breaker Morant
Good Luck Chuck
Mr. Woodcock
Suburban Girl
Went To Coney Island On A Mission From God... Be Back By Five

January 22, 2008
The Game Plan

January 29, 2008
Daddy Day Camp
Damages: The Complete First Season
King of California
Monty Python's Life of Brian

February 05, 2008
The Brave One
Crimson Tide
Master & Commander: The Far Side of the World
Me, Myself & Irene
Wall Street

February 12, 2008
The Amateurs
Gone Baby Gone
No Reservations

March 25, 2008
HDScape: Blu-ray Sampler

March 28, 2008
Godzilla (1998)

April 08, 2008
Dead Fish
IMAX: Dolphins
IMAX: The Living Sea

May 06, 2008
Twister

October 28, 2008
Tinkerbell

BTBuck1 · 11-17-2007, 03:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SingingTheBlues

I don't see WB changing sides at 60:40. Maybe at a consistent 80:20, or higher.

If BD was beating HD 70:30 weekly (not just on huge release weeks) this thing would be/ will be over then. Not only would WB switch, Uni and Co. would probably too. 70:30 weekly is an assload of marketshare dominance.

Quote:

Dual-format players will become big-ticket items a year from now.

That all depends, if the pricing remains the same or more than buying both seperate like how it is now, fuggedaboutit.

SingingTheBlues · 11-17-2007, 03:12 AM

BT, post a list of the movies the various studios are putting out for the first time next year. That's what I am referring to. Maybe I chose the wrong wording when I said, "release schedule." I meant the new movies they are releasing. Obviously, new movies released by the studios will be out on their HD format of choice.

The list you showed is the release schedule showing old movies. I'm talking about totally new movies -- the ones that sell discs in the 10s of thousands.

Unfortunately, they kick our tail next year (unless there are some movies I haven't heard about, which are in the pipeline).

OokieSpookie · 11-17-2007, 03:16 AM

I am a bit torn on the situation.

I will say I am disapointed and frustrated that we know that the PS3 sells good numbers week after week yet the margin stays the same and that I believe that the number one movie every week should easily sell 100k. (I will not go into my views on the gaming side because this is not the place)
There is no excuse and it is something that needs to be addressed.
If 100k ( and probably not EVEN that many ) hd players can make even a small impact why in the hell cant multiple times that amount of PS3s and that does not even take into account stand alones.

HD has no chance of winning. None at all. That is not even a question.
Blu is the place to be.
I will say though that I am sick of the dragging on with no end in site.
I am also very concerned with the BOGO offers constantly, it is too much too often.
Yes I enjoy padding my movie collection but it is not the way to build numbers, even though I know that the intention is to try and bring more casuals into the fold.

One of two things needs to happen within the next quarter:
1) A 1.1 spec player at 200 or at least 250. Blu needs an identity outside of the PS3 ( of course the ironic part is that it needs more of an identity among PS3 users also )
2) they need to money hat up and give Warner an offer that they can not refuse.

One of those two has to happen for the good of High Def media itself.
Again, there is no way that HD can ever win and it will never break even but unless there is one winner than the movies just do not sell enough to make money for the studios and there are just too many people that will stay on the fence and make do with dvd.

richteer · 11-17-2007, 03:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SingingTheBlues

I don't see WB changing sides at 60:40. Maybe at a consistent 80:20, or higher.

Without Warner being exclusive, I can't see us ever getting to 80:20 consistently. What I find ironic is that in almost every other industry, a 2:1 ratio that has held up for a year would be the mark of a true winner, and the debate would be over.

Warner going Blu-exclusive would be fantasic for two reasons: 1) the war would be that much closer to being over, and 2) we wouldn't have to put up with bit-rate starved HD DVD ports.

The Guardian · 11-17-2007, 03:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SingingTheBlues

What will kill these formats are: high prices above that of DVD, and for now, TVs that are too expensive for the average consumer.

I'm getting sick of people saying this... a large percentage of people already own HDTVs, and they make up a huge percentage of new TVs being sold. An HD install base of a few hundred thousand (or even a few million counting PS3s) is a tiny percentage of total HDTV households.

Quote:

That and wives who consider a large TV an eyesore.

Not all HDTVs are large. Especially compared to how much space a 27" (average size?) tube TV takes up! And finally that comment was kinda sexist don't you think.

P.S. My wife uses "my" HDTV about 5x as much as me. But it's still "mine" according to her so she can blame me for the monthly payments lol.

SingingTheBlues · 11-17-2007, 03:41 AM

BTbuck, here are those totally new movies by studio for 2008.

Please feel free to edit or add if I have missed anything. This is why I feel dual-format players will be for sale next Christmas, and why neither format will "win" anytime soon.:

Universal
American Gangster
Charlie Wilson's War (Tom Hanks and Julia Roberts).
Wanted
The Incredible Hulk
Hellboy II: The Golden Army
Mamma Mia!
The Mummy 3: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor
Leatherheads
Forgetting Sarah Marshall

New Line
The Golden Compass
Semi-Pro
Harold and Kumar Escape from Guantanamo

Paramount/Dreamworks
Bee Movie
Beowulf
Sweeney Todd (Dreamworks Exclusive dist. in USA only)
1-18-08 (Cloverfield)
The Spiderwick Chronicles
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (should come for both formats or not at all)
Kung Fu Panda (animated from Dreamworks)
The Love Guru (Mike Myers new comedy)
Tropic Thunder (Spielberg produced Action Comedy with Ben Stiller)
Iron Man
Madagascar 2
The Crate Escape
Startrek XI

Weinstein
The Mist

Warner
Fred Claus
I Am Legend
Get Smart
The Dark Knight
Speed Racer
10,000 B.C.
The Bucket List

Sony
Vantage Point
Hancock
Bond 22
The Other Boleyn Girl
Step Brothers
You Don't Mess with Zohan (Adam Sandler)
Walk Hard (Columbia - Apatow flick)
Angels & Demons ( davinci code follow up )

Fox/MGM
Hitman
Mr. Magorium's Wonder Emporium
Wolverine
The Day the Earth Stood Still
The List
Alvin and the Chipmunks
Aliens vs. Predator: Requiem
Starship Dave (Eddie Murphy)
X-Files 2 (films in December, supposed to come out in July at theaters)
Jumper
Horton Hears a Who
Dragonball Z live action

Disney
National Treasure: Book of Secrets
The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian
Wall-E
No Country for Old Men

Lionsgate
Rambo
The Eye
The Forbidden Kingdom (Jet Li/Jacky Chan)

richard lichtenfelt · 11-17-2007, 03:52 AM

Miramax - No Country for Old Men (blu-ray)
Here is a link to the extended trailer: http://www.apple.com/trailers/mirama...ldmen/trailer/
Here is a link to some critics reviews from Movie Review Query Engine:
http://www.mrqe.com/lookup?no+country+for+old+men
So far it has received almost all perfect marks.
Only Sweeney Todd interests me off the hd dvd list.
Bee movie got poor reviews and do you really think it can compare to Pixar's.
American Gangster was the kind of movie that was good to see once, but there wasn't a lot of action in it.
I hope you realize how incomplete your list is.

11-17-2007, 03:41 AM	#5419
SingingTheBlues Banned Member since:Nov 2007	BTbuck, here are those totally new movies by studio for 2008. Please feel free to edit or add if I have missed anything. This is why I feel dual-format players will be for sale next Christmas, and why neither format will "win" anytime soon.: Universal American Gangster Charlie Wilson's War (Tom Hanks and Julia Roberts). Wanted The Incredible Hulk Hellboy II: The Golden Army Mamma Mia! The Mummy 3: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor Leatherheads Forgetting Sarah Marshall New Line The Golden Compass Semi-Pro Harold and Kumar Escape from Guantanamo Paramount/Dreamworks Bee Movie Beowulf Sweeney Todd (Dreamworks Exclusive dist. in USA only) 1-18-08 (Cloverfield) The Spiderwick Chronicles Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (should come for both formats or not at all) Kung Fu Panda (animated from Dreamworks) The Love Guru (Mike Myers new comedy) Tropic Thunder (Spielberg produced Action Comedy with Ben Stiller) Iron Man Madagascar 2 The Crate Escape Startrek XI Weinstein The Mist Warner Fred Claus I Am Legend Get Smart The Dark Knight Speed Racer 10,000 B.C. The Bucket List Sony Vantage Point Hancock Bond 22 The Other Boleyn Girl Step Brothers You Don't Mess with Zohan (Adam Sandler) Walk Hard (Columbia - Apatow flick) Angels & Demons ( davinci code follow up ) Fox/MGM Hitman Mr. Magorium's Wonder Emporium Wolverine The Day the Earth Stood Still The List Alvin and the Chipmunks Aliens vs. Predator: Requiem Starship Dave (Eddie Murphy) X-Files 2 (films in December, supposed to come out in July at theaters) Jumper Horton Hears a Who Dragonball Z live action Disney National Treasure: Book of Secrets The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian Wall-E No Country for Old Men Lionsgate Rambo The Eye The Forbidden Kingdom (Jet Li/Jacky Chan) Last edited by SingingTheBlues; 11-17-2007 at 04:21 AM.

11-17-2007, 03:52 AM	#5420
richard lichtenfelt Power Member Member since:Jul 2007 Location:I'm not drunk, I'm just tired cause I been up all night drinking. Blu-ray reviews:3	Miramax - No Country for Old Men (blu-ray) Here is a link to the extended trailer: http://www.apple.com/trailers/mirama...ldmen/trailer/ Here is a link to some critics reviews from Movie Review Query Engine: http://www.mrqe.com/lookup?no+country+for+old+men So far it has received almost all perfect marks. Only Sweeney Todd interests me off the hd dvd list. Bee movie got poor reviews and do you really think it can compare to Pixar's. American Gangster was the kind of movie that was good to see once, but there wasn't a lot of action in it. I hope you realize how incomplete your list is. Last edited by richard lichtenfelt; 11-17-2007 at 03:57 AM.

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11-17-2007, 02:05 AM	#5401
The Guardian Expert Member Member since:Aug 2007 Location:Kitchener, ON Blu-ray collection:9 Trading Score:1	Sony doesn't really have a choice, if (for example) Sharp wants to cut their price to $349, they can. The BDA as a whole has only minimal "control" over member prices, otherwise it would be collusion (illegal). That's where Toshiba as a single entity has an advantage. On the other hand, Toshiba has (apparently) used that power to scare away even Venturer from making HD DVD players... Want a free movie deal that counts in the Nielsons though? Why not offer a "Buy 5 Blu-rays with this player, FREE after mail-in rebate! And P.S. We'll send you 5 more with your rebate!"... As far as what they're actually doing, I AM seeing a lot of combo deals from ALL the BD manufacturers around here, combining with the TVs...

11-17-2007, 02:11 AM	#5402
sj001 Blu-ray Samurai Member since:Aug 2007 Location:Rochester, NY Blu-ray collection:317 DVD collection:17 Trading Score:5	I really think that if this trend stays roughly the way it is, around 60:40 or so, that WB will change sides, surely they can see the LONG TERM benefit of this. In the short term, yes, they gain money from both sides, but to END this war, is to bring in tons of people waiting for it to end. I talked to 2 different people today who said they were waiting on this. 65:35, not bad at all, that still blows HD-DVD away, and believe it or not Chuck & Larry did do well in the theaters, but it won't float. The Rat will float though.

11-17-2007, 02:31 AM	#5404
SingingTheBlues Banned Member since:Nov 2007	I don't see WB changing sides at 60:40. Maybe at a consistent 80:20, or higher. The problem is, I see both formats surviving next year, mainly because of next year's new release schedule. Have you looked at it? We kick their rear for the next few months, but next year, the competition has a very strong new release schedule. Dual-format players will become big-ticket items a year from now.

11-17-2007, 02:43 AM	#5406
SingingTheBlues Banned Member since:Nov 2007	Yeah, I will probably go neutral by next year if nothing changes, BUT, and this is a very big BUT for all to know.... I don't see myself purchasing more than a few HD-DUD discs. Therein lies the difference between BR and HD-DUD -- there's a lot more to buy that's worthwhile on BR.

11-17-2007, 02:45 AM	#5407
The Don Blu-ray Ninja Member since:Apr 2006 Blu-ray reviews:12 Trading Score:2	this has probably already been mentioned... but has anyone read the article they had this week on the HD forums about the fanboys on both sides?... it is getting kinda out of hand right now...

11-17-2007, 03:05 AM	#5412
SingingTheBlues Banned Member since:Nov 2007	I guess I disagree with that, Mike. If dual-format players are out there, then people won't care if they buy a red box or a blue box, so long as prices are affordable. Stores won't care if they're stocking a red box or a blue box. Overall, the format war has (so far) been beneficial for consumers. We have lower disc prices and lower player prices because of it. What will kill these formats are: high prices above that of DVD, and for now, TVs that are too expensive for the average consumer. That and wives who consider a large TV an eyesore.

11-17-2007, 03:12 AM	#5415
SingingTheBlues Banned Member since:Nov 2007	BT, post a list of the movies the various studios are putting out for the first time next year. That's what I am referring to. Maybe I chose the wrong wording when I said, "release schedule." I meant the new movies they are releasing. Obviously, new movies released by the studios will be out on their HD format of choice. The list you showed is the release schedule showing old movies. I'm talking about totally new movies -- the ones that sell discs in the 10s of thousands. Unfortunately, they kick our tail next year (unless there are some movies I haven't heard about, which are in the pipeline).

11-17-2007, 03:16 AM	#5416
OokieSpookie Banned Member since:Nov 2007 Trading Score:1	I am a bit torn on the situation. I will say I am disapointed and frustrated that we know that the PS3 sells good numbers week after week yet the margin stays the same and that I believe that the number one movie every week should easily sell 100k. (I will not go into my views on the gaming side because this is not the place) There is no excuse and it is something that needs to be addressed. If 100k ( and probably not EVEN that many ) hd players can make even a small impact why in the hell cant multiple times that amount of PS3s and that does not even take into account stand alones. HD has no chance of winning. None at all. That is not even a question. Blu is the place to be. I will say though that I am sick of the dragging on with no end in site. I am also very concerned with the BOGO offers constantly, it is too much too often. Yes I enjoy padding my movie collection but it is not the way to build numbers, even though I know that the intention is to try and bring more casuals into the fold. One of two things needs to happen within the next quarter: 1) A 1.1 spec player at 200 or at least 250. Blu needs an identity outside of the PS3 ( of course the ironic part is that it needs more of an identity among PS3 users also ) 2) they need to money hat up and give Warner an offer that they can not refuse. One of those two has to happen for the good of High Def media itself. Again, there is no way that HD can ever win and it will never break even but unless there is one winner than the movies just do not sell enough to make money for the studios and there are just too many people that will stay on the fence and make do with dvd.

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