Will 2015 be the Biggest Year for Film Ever?

[Buddy Ackerman]

EDIT - at the time of starting this thread there were films either 'confirmed' or rumoured for 2015 - Finding Dory, Avatar 2, Independence Day 2, Pirates 5 - that were strong parts of my hypothesis. With some of these moved to 2016 it leaves 2015 as merely a very good year for blobkbuster hits rather than the ultimate year it looked to be at one point. The below post has been constantly revised to take out films that had a 2015 release date but ended up being moved.

Apparently 2012 was the highest-grossing year for film - at least domestically. I can't find a comparable figure for worldwide figures but with four films take over a billion dollars each at the box office (a record) it's more than likely the worldwide box office for last year hovers around the top of the chart as well.

It's unlikely that 2013 will beat last year - things are doing well (we're currently in a record-breaking June for example) but Iron Man 3 stands as the only billion dollar films so far and, looking ahead, the only two films probable to join him are The Hunger Games: Catching Fire and The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (EDIT: Despicable Me 2 stands a slim chance as well). Similarly, 2014 has some big films due - Captain America: The Winter Soldier, The Amazing Spider-Man 2, Transformers 4 (somehow not yet titled Trans4mers), Interstellar, The Hunger Games; Mockingjay Part 1 and The Hobbit: There and Back Again, along with plenty of other solid-to-great performers (e.g. X-Men: Days of Future Past, Guardians of the Galaxy and Dawn of the Planet of the Apes) but its doubtful it has enough to beat 2012.

2015 however...

First of all, look what we have confirmed. The biggest two will almost certainly be Avengers: Age of Ultron and Star Wars: Episode VII. Is there any reason not to believe these two will cross a billion each? Then there's Pirates of the Caribbean 5 and Finding Dory. (EDIT: Pirates and Finding Dory have now both been moved to 2016). And the year will draw to a close with The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2. Of course, at this point it's hard to fully determine how well the franchise will hold up but considering how well the first did and using Twilight as an example of franchise growth (not to mention how well Potter ended with its final chapter) then I'd be shocked is this wasn't huge. EDIT: And, now announce, the Superman/Batman team-up film, coming off the Dark Knight trilogy and a close-to-$700m Man of Steel. Sure, it won't be the Bale/Nolan Batman but he's still a popular enough character for audiences to flock to this, especially given the chance to see probably the two most iconic comic book heores on screen together. And having Batman in there will help distract from some of the reservations some had about Man of Steel. If that can do $650m on its own then this one is set to be massive

Unconfirmed but likely for 2015? Two other huge ones - Bond 24 is rumoured for 2015/2016 but, given the success of Skyfall, I'm sure MGM and Sony would welcome it sooner rather than later and Craig isn't getting any younger and has Bond 25 to go afterwards. Skyfall may turn out to be lightning in a bottle - who could have thought it would be the second highest-grossing film in a year containing The Hobbit and The Dark Knight Rises? - but the next Bond film will get a huge boost from it and, should Mendes reteam with Craig, then a similar success isn't off the table (EDIT: Bond 24 with Mendes directing has now been confirmed for 2015). And then there's the always fluid Avatar 2. Last we heard it's aiming for 2015 and, whilst we can debate how 'good' Avatar was, $2.8b speaks for itself. (EDIT: scrub Avatar off the list - we won't be seeing it until 2016). EDIT: there are also rumours now of Star Trek 3 getting a 2015 release, which sounds unlikely as they'll surely hold it over for Trek's 50th anniversary in 2016.

Then we have riskier blockbusters - the old franchises. Terminator 5 at this point may seem a tired and flagging franchise but with a fresh spin on it (if the alleged rumours of it taking place in the past are true) then a strong script and the return of Arnie might count for something. And the fourth Jurassic Park film Jurassic World may not seem a huge contender but don't forget the first film took the Biggest Film of All Time crown from E.T. and kept it until Titanic. There's will have been 14 years between JPIII and the new one and it's hard to know whether this will work in its favour or against it but that's a whole new generation of kids who will happily watch dinosaurs on the big screen. And then there's Independence Day 2 EDIT: which has now been moved to 2016.

Then there are plenty of smaller blockbusters that could break out - Ant-Man is coming three months after Avengers and, though an oddity of the Marvel canon, should do well riding off the coat-tails of it. Imagine if Marvel had had a film ready to go late last last with Avengers fever-pitch still going strong? The Fantastic 4 will have an uphill battle, coming off two films that are looked down upon, but they're popular characters and is at least out of the summer minefield. Ted 2 will be coming off a $550m haul for the first and an audience that has continued to appreciate the film through home media (and is sensibly avoiding the summer with an Easter opening) and should see a similar take. Mission: Impossible 5 will depend on it getting the same sort of word-of-mouth that M:I-4 did but the franchise earned a lot of audience goodwill and interest with that one - goodwill that should carry over to Tomorrowland, Brad Bird's follow-up to M:I-4 - it won't have the brand recognition but it will have Clooney and a huge Disney promotional push behind it. Assassin's Creed will have to overcome the video game stigma but casting Michael Fassbender gives it a step up on the kudos ladder. Warcraft shares that same stigma but is obviously a huge deal to a lot of people and the company behind the film have taken a long time to get it to a point where they feel is right so that, plus Duncan Moon, could make for a good film that could hit well with the target audience. Snow White and the Hunstmen 2 has a chance of following up its predecessor's success. Tin-Tin 2 depends on getting made and people caring but the first came close to $400m and beat Captain America, X-Men: First Class and Bridesmaids that year. And we also have the new Dan Brown adaptation Inferno with Hanks and Howard back - Angels and Demons may have been a slight step down from Da Vinci Code ($485m vs. 758m worldwide) but it's still a very successful franchise.

And, a couple of crossover films aside, that's not even considering the family films - Pixar may have lost Finding Dory but it also has Inside Out for the summer, a film with an original hook and without a previous character in sight which should play well with the anti-Pixar-sequel critics. They'll be spoiled with a second original Pixar film at the end of the year with The Good Dinosaur making it's delayed debut, though that may carry be baggage of its "troubled" production (not that those sort of issues stopped Toy Story 2, Ratatouille or Brave been successes). And then there are The Smurfs 3, Kung-Fu Panda 3, The Penguins of Madagascar and Alvin and the Chipmunks 4 which may not do so well with the critics but are all strong franchises, with B.O.O angling to be the next Dreamworks gfranchise starter. And Disney's live-action version of Cinderella is in the same March slot as Alice in Wonderland and Oz: The Great and Powerful and could be a similar hit (though more likely closer to Oz than Alice). Speaking of which, Alice in Wonderland 2 is rumoured for 2015 now it has a director (and Depp is free from doing Pirates that year) and, although it is extremely unlikely to match the $1b gross of the first thanks to the loss of Burton, Depp's dimming light and the lack of 3D novelty that the former thrived on, it should still pack a decent wallop at the box office.

Bear in mind we still have plenty of time to go. there are still loads of films that will be announced between now and their 2015 release and, while not all of them will be Star Wars and Avengers-type films, there's still plenty of room for all of those sequels to recent hits (Prometheus 2, American Pie 5, The Bourne Whatever) and others to be announced.

So what do you think? Will it be blockbuster overkill, with the huge films end up drowning out the smaller ones? Will old-fashioned franchises like Terminator 5 and Jurassic Park World be killed by the fashionable likes of Avengers 2 and Batman Vs. Superman? Or will there be enough of an audience to go round for all? Will the press just concentrate on the Superhero team-up battle of Avengers 2 vs. Batman/Superman? Personally I think 2015 has a very strong chance at besting 2012 as the biggest year at the box office ever and should be a huge boom for the industry and possibly the year where the top five of the year - likely to be Star Wars, Avengers 2, Hunger Games: Mockingjay Pt. 2, Bond 24 with Superman Vs. Batman - will all hit $1b worldwide.

(A quick note - all of this talk of Biggest Year Ever is obviously ignoring inflation, though I'd be interested in how it measured up. I hope it's also clear that I'm not equating money with quality because, again, Pirates 5).