Effects of Dual-format Player/Disc Support

[Josh]

Earlier today, Warner announced that they would be introducing a single disc which would play in both Blu-ray and HD DVD players. Additionally, LG announced that they would introduce a single player which would play both Blu-ray and HD DVD discs. After giving it some thought, I believe these announcements are more detrimental to the HD DVD group than the Blu-ray group.

Most agree that the Blu-ray group has a very solid content and hardware support. Blu-ray supporters have already enjoyed support from all content providers excluding Universal and all hardware manufacturers excluding Toshiba. They were set to, at the very least, survive the format war for the foreseeable future with the current support.

On the other hand, the HD DVD group was in desperate need of additional studio and manufacturers support to continue the battle. Coming into CES, they were looking for any type of studio neutrality or hardware neutrality to justify their existence.

What will be the effect of the dual-format support?

Blu-ray studios will now feel no need to produce HD DVD content. With the majority of players being Blu-ray, and all future players supporting both, there is no reason to support a niche product like HD DVD. Universal should recognize that Blu-ray is superior in technical terms and make the switch as well - but their stubbornness to adopt a Sony-led technology will probably mean they only produce HD DVD content for the foreseeable future.

Hardware companies will stay where they are, or move to a dual-format stance. Sony will stay Blu, and Toshiba will stay HD DVD because that is there technology, but everyone else will be forced to produce dual-format players eventually as the market demands.

One of two things will happen. Either HD DVD will die as support moves to the superior format, or both will survive and the war will continue without ammunition. If the first scenario happens, it will be best for consumers. If the second happens, consumers will reject both in spite of studios and stick with DVD - leaving both to die a horrible death with billions lost by all involved. Consumers generally will not deal with two formats, and if Universal refuses to produce content for Blu-ray, HD DVD will be dragged along for the ride over the cliff.

In other words, this is probably not going to end pretty.