Samsung Exec: Blu-ray Will Be Gone in 5 Years

[prerich]

Originally Posted by blu2

Link:

http://www.pocket-lint.co.uk/news/ne...ars-left.phtml

I think Samsung is stating the obvious that in 5 years Blu Ray will not be a money maker for them, just as DVD players are not money makers for the major CE vendors today, and they see OLED as a place where they will be making money in 5 years.

As for what's next, of course Sony, Panasonic, Samsung are working on something that will be some form of replacement for Blu Ray as it exists today. They need a steady stream of new tech / product to sell us.

That's the engine that keeps the wheel turnin'!

[prerich]

Originally Posted by badboi

Hopefully Samsung will do us all a favor and pull out now. Still kicking myself over buying their Blu ray player.

No need to do that If it's a good BD player it's just good - regardless of who made it. I just think that every CE is thinking the same thing - so they can find a new way to make money. If you want to know whats going on....follow the money - right now it leads to BD, but I gurantee they are trying to make a new money trail...And I don't believe its downloads either - I don't know what it is - but it's definately in the works.

They are taking a hint from Mr. Gates and his ex-firm - Microsoft - change OS's once every 1.5 years - keep'em coming back - Steve Jobs does the same thing! So does Nvidia and AMD and Intel and so on and so on and so on(insert computer software or hardware manufactuer)

Side note - can anyone see that CE are trying to get rid of PC's as the Samsung Exec stated. They see the computing gravy train and they want in!

[CAB]

Perhaps he saw how well his first two players in the market performed.

[prerich]

Originally Posted by Clark Kent

This article boils down to one executive's opinion. Lots of "executives" also thought HD DVD would be the winning HD format. If he had said dvd would be gone in five years it might have been believable.

Only one thing is stopping studios from pulling the DVD plug...a J6P BD player - and if the sub $200.00 player for Christmas is true - DVD dies -studios have to get rid of those older movies - come down on the titles that came out with BD and let the new sell at $19.00 to $24.00. My prediction - DVD is in its death throws by December of next year - mark my words.

[Anthony P]

Given the context of his discussion, I believe he thinks Samsung can only make money on making Blu-Ray players for 5 years before low-priced walmart players take over from the tier 1.

that or

in 97 DVD came out, in 06 DVD started getting replaced by BD (9 years later). We are now 2008, in ~5 years it will be 7-8 years old. So if it has the same life span as DVD then in around 5 years we might be doing the same thing again (fighting with idiots wanting that other loser format, asking for better quality....)

My guess is that BDs lifespan will be longer, but 5 years is far away.

[prerich]

Originally Posted by Neo65

Given the context of his discussion, I believe he thinks Samsung can only make money on making Blu-Ray players for 5 years before low-priced walmart players take over from the tier 1. By 2013, Samsung electronics CE division can fuel their growth from OLED even if BD players goes below $50 at which point samsung can no longer compete.

This is pretty much the timeline that unfolded for DVD players.

That's also an excellent post!!! Good reasoning!

[Eternal_Sunshine]

Originally Posted by doctorsteve

M'kaaayyyy.

(making list...)

Not... buying... To.. Shi.. ba.

Not.. buying... Sam.. sung.

Got it!

Any other idiotic companies out there?

Oh yeah...

Mi.. cro... sss..

Ex... act... ly.

[jangofett]

Oh Snap!

[Mr. Cinema]

Originally Posted by prerich

Only one thing is stopping studios from pulling the DVD plug...a J6P BD player - and if the sub $200.00 player for Christmas is true - DVD dies -studios have to get rid of those older movies - come down on the titles that came out with BD and let the new sell at $19.00 to $24.00. My prediction - DVD is in its death throws by December of next year - mark my words.

DVD sales are usually in the 20 BILLION DOLLAR range each year. You're saying in a little over a year, DVD is dead? No way.

Can you name any company that wanted to "pull the plug" on a product that generates billions of dollars in sales each year? I can't.

[lch]

without BD, how are they going to proof their OLED display look great ?
use dvd ?

[Neo65]

Originally Posted by prerich

That's also an excellent post!!! Good reasoning!

Given how quotes from executives are treated these days, it's not surprising that we get all these 'news'. If people read all the articles on this, you'd quickly realize that there are a lot of fillers and assumptions by each article on what he really meant when he said that. One constant is that he is a CE guy who's job is to sell CE toys to people.

He said BD is great for samsung for 5 years, then he switched to OLED is their next big thing.

There are a lot of players in the IPTV download market looking for money these days, and the credit has tightened up to the point where a lot of semi-legitimate companies in this space can't raise any money. The VCs have gotten cold feet on download iptv, and if such a company needs money this year, they'll find it a very hostile environment to get any sort of funding.

While no doubt there will be a day when download highdef will have no compromises and be successful. That day is not now, and in between now and that day, a lot of companies who are now finding out they have no money left to meet payroll are not going to be around to watch that happen.

In the mean time, w.r.t. the actual Samsung quote, perhaps some reporter with time on his hands can ask the samsung ce guy in UK what he really meant.

[TheIgster]

Originally Posted by badboi

Hopefully Samsung will do us all a favor and pull out now. Still kicking myself over buying their Blu ray player.

Why?

I love my P1500. Works great, loads fast, looks great.

Doesn't matter what one exec has to say IMO.

[Tok]

Originally Posted by prerich

Only one thing is stopping studios from pulling the DVD plug...a J6P BD player - and if the sub $200.00 player for Christmas is true - DVD dies -studios have to get rid of those older movies - come down on the titles that came out with BD and let the new sell at $19.00 to $24.00. My prediction - DVD is in its death throws by December of next year - mark my words.

While I would not mind if this prediction came true you need to look beyond just the enthusiast market.

Besides the hardware prices (which are falling) the following three issues are going to hold back BD to some degree:

1. BD requires a HD television to truly be appreciated. DVD had the advantage of being compatible with nearly every TV installed. HDTV penetration in American homes is still well under 50%.
2. Software price. While I really only purchase BDs anymore, I find myself being more selective and actively searching for the best price available. If the going street prices were more inline with DVD with a small premium then I think there would not be as much backlash against the format.
3. Difficult and expensive to copy. Not that I advocate piracy, but we all know someone who rips every title they get from Netflix. With AACS and BD+ and the expense of the Hardware and blank BD media, I doubt many consumers are willing to lose that ability. Again I frown upon the practice, but many think there is nothing wrong with doing it.

[CptGreedle]

While I do not know if HDMI can even support 4k resolutions or not, I do know this...
The average Joe is having a hard enough time buying into HD as is, claiming there is not enough difference between SD and HD to make up the price difference. While that is going on, the science behind the way people see shows that resolutions exceeding 2k are screens that are less than a certain size (I'm not sure exactly what it is but around 100") is lost on most people. There is little point in adding more resolution to an image if the human eye can not see it at the expected distance. Also, sure some people have 90" screens, but I for one do not have 90" to play with in my house like that. That is 7.5 feet! I imagine most people would have a hard time finding room in their house for a 90"+ screen, especially since room sizes are not easily upgraded.
4k is not "almost here". It may or may not come. Sure there are Ultra HD technologies out there, but they are mostly industrial. Even my computer only supports 1920X1200 and it is 24". That is a far cry from 4k, and much closer to my eyes than a TV. By the time 4k comes to a mass market level (if ever), Blu-ray will probably be on the way out anyways. How many years have people lived with SDTVs? Since 1941. NTSC, founded in 1941, standardized 525 line TV which is still used today. PAL came around in the 50s. So for the last 60± years, we have been using the same resolution. Now with HD standardized at 720 and 1080, there is no reason for a new resolution standard to come around for at least another 20 years. Think of all the people that would get upset if another resolution came out in 5 or 10 years. Think of all the money spent by companies on developing and marketing another resolution when this one still has so much more to give!

No, 4k, logically, is not on the way, at least not in the sense that it is almost here. I see little support for 4k technology to hit mainstream in the next 2 decades. I think the real next advance in TV technology, which has already been proven to work flawlessly with Blu-ray, is 3DTV, via Autostereoscopic (without dorky glasses).
That will be t he next evolution of HDTV, not 4k. And that will have a lot to give when it is mainstream as well. Blu-ray is clearly up to the challenge, so I also see little evidence to see Blu-ray going anywhere but up in the next 8-10 years.

[lch]

maybe we start another news thread "Sony/Panasonic/... Exec: Samsung Will Be Gone in 5 Years"

[tron3]

Originally Posted by lch

maybe we start another news thread "Sony/Panasonic/... Exec: Samsung Will Be Gone in 5 Years"

+1 for every year. But it should read, "Samsung exec will be gone in 5 weeks for sipping at the red Kool-Aid."

[AliceT]

ANything is possible, but i think BD will be around for longer than 5 years. It really depends on what tech comes out and what people embrace. Right now BD is doing pretty well with HD owners, and as prices drop on players, I only see more people adopting it. Especially once players get to the sub $100 level, why would you not pick one up? Even if you didnt have an HDTV, you might as well pick one up for future proofing, well, until the next tech comes out.

[Blu Kreme]

I don't agree with some of the article, but I do agree with some people here.

If you think for a second that blu-ray will be around for 10 years or more with nothing else, you are sadly living in a dream world. Expect something else coming along to take it's place within 5 years give or take.

Technology is moving to fast not to consider something like that. Too fast. There is already a higher capacity blu-ray disc. Is it new tech - yes - but using the same name.

As for super high resolution - the majority of consumers don't even know what HDTV is and we are now only just getting rid of analog and switching to digital.

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by Blu Kreme

If you think for a second that blu-ray will be around for 10 years or more with nothing else, you are sadly living in a dream world. Expect something else coming along to take it's place within 5 years give or take.

I presume you mean something superior?

There are already zealots pushing wannabes, and claiming inferior offerings will kill Blu. And we killed one of those at the beginning of the year.

If it is disc based, the tech would already have to known today for it to be consumer at sub $4 replication in five years.

I don't think five years is enough for flash cards to get cheap enough for HD, let alone something better.

If it is download based, then all the issues regarding HD downloads gets amplified by the requirement that this hypothetical be superior.

Gary

[BIGLAD]

A director of consumer electronics has said Blu Ray has 5 years left.