Physical & Digital EST: The Future of Home Video Discussion Thread

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by Veronica Mars

Digital rules!

Can’t wait to sell off most of my blus!

Changed that for ya.

Subscription rules!

Can’t wait to sell most of my Digital HD! Oh wait, no one is buying? Oh shucks!

[jhrobinson]

If I understand correctly, this is a content problem as much as a technology problem. TVOD purchases do not seem to be increasing enough to offset the decrease in physical media purchases. Meanwhile, streaming (or SVOD) seems to be steadily increasing. However, people seem to be paying subscriptions to SVOD primarily for SVOD-exclusive content.

In other words, people just aren't as interested in buying movies as they used to be. Is that correct?

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by WestMan

Discs are never going away in the next 30 years. They still make CD's and Vinyl records. There will always be a fraction of the audience who wants the highest quality that a hard copy can provide.

I say that as somebody who has future proofed himself and has both physical and digital copies of my top 100+ movies.

Of course you are right.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by jhrobinson

If I understand correctly, this is a content problem as much as a technology problem. TVOD purchases do not seem to be increasing enough to offset the decrease in physical media purchases. Meanwhile, streaming (or SVOD) seems to be steadily increasing. However, people seem to be paying subscriptions to SVOD primarily for SVOD-exclusive content.

In other words, people just aren't as interested in buying movies as they used to be. Is that correct?

Yep. A point that seems to go over the head of Defectors.

[jhrobinson]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

Yep. A point that seems to go over the head of Defectors.

So if you also include declining box office receipts, it seems that the problem is really the movies themselves.

I think people who buy physical media are similar to people who buy physical books. Most people do NOT buy books (at least not in the USA). But those who do buy books tend to buy physical books. That is why ebook sales have leveled off while physical book sales are increasing.

Eventually, physical media sales will "hit bottom," but still be a reliable source of revenue. It isn't an "either/or" situation, in my opinion.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by jhrobinson

So if you also include declining box office receipts, it seems that the problem is really the movies themselves.

I think people who buy physical media are similar to people who buy physical books. Most people do NOT buy books (at least not in the USA). But those who do buy books tend to buy physical books. That is why ebook sales have leveled off while physical book sales are increasing.

Eventually, physical media sales will "hit bottom," but still be a reliable source of revenue. It isn't an "either/or" situation, in my opinion.

People tend to buy what they are told to buy. (Sheep, in other words) They were (imo) given false hope of Digital HD being this incredible new age offering when in fact, it is simply a placeholder for subscription films and tv. If people can’t see that by now, I don’t know what to say.

I agree that disc has a tactile appeal and will hold out. Ebooks were everywhere and bloggers/websites were giving it the usual bull. Now, like you say, books are making a huge comeback and Ereaders are going the way of the fax machine.

[jhrobinson]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

People tend to buy what they are told to buy. (Sheep, in other words) They were (imo) given false hope of Digital HD being this incredible new age offering when in fact, it is simply a placeholder for subscription films and tv. If people can’t see that by now, I don’t know what to say.

I agree that disc has a tactile appeal and will hold out. Ebooks were everywhere and bloggers/websites were giving it the usual bull. Now, like you say, books are making a huge comeback and Ereaders are going the way of the fax machine.

Very good points, sir!

The problem with subscription Video On Demand (for me) is that you don't have control over content. A movie can be on a streaming platform one month and gone the next. Some of us want to have control over when and where we see the content, I suppose.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by jhrobinson

Very good points, sir!

The problem with subscription Video On Demand (for me) is that you don't have control over content. A movie can be on a streaming platform one month and gone the next. Some of us want to have control over when and where we see the content, I suppose.

Yep, for sure. Control of content is a big deal. I do like Netflix mind. I see them more as a cable channel with the occasional decent movie. I also couldn’t help but respect them for getting a decent 720p picture from my old (I have fibre now) broadband speed of 2Mbps! !

For movies, it’s disc all the way and always will be. If they aren’t around anymore in ten-fifteen years, so what? I will have well over 1,000 films to choose from. I probably won’t want to own films after that. After all, there is only so much Marvel entertainment I can tolerate!

Anyway, that’s me done. Too many discs to watch. Nice to talk to you.

[Dynamo of Eternia]

Originally Posted by jhrobinson

So if you also include declining box office receipts, it seems that the problem is really the movies themselves.

I think people who buy physical media are similar to people who buy physical books. Most people do NOT buy books (at least not in the USA). But those who do buy books tend to buy physical books. That is why ebook sales have leveled off while physical book sales are increasing.

Eventually, physical media sales will "hit bottom," but still be a reliable source of revenue. It isn't an "either/or" situation, in my opinion.

I think this is pretty accurate overall.


Obviously digital (both subscription and sell through) is part of what is causing physical media to take a hit.

But the other thing, as I've said before, is simply people who do buy and still want to have physical media having already bought most of the titles that they want in terms of older, catalog titles.

DVD saturated the market years ago. While Blu-Ray has never (and will never) reach the level of saturation that DVD did at it's height, it still has done well, but also hit it's top saturation point some time ago, and most major older titles have already been released on the format. So with each passing year, in terms of catalog titles, there are fewer yet to be released, and so there are fewer for those who do collect physical media to buy.

Where the most money in physical media sales is coming from and will continue to come from is the release of new movies. But as you pointed out, how well those do depends on the quality of the movies. Box office numbers are down in general. Some films are still doing well. But many are flopping or under performing. To some extent audiences seem to be starting to wise up to some of the redundant crap that is coming out. And when that is combined with the vast array of other entertainment options out there (from traditional TV, to streaming services, On Demand options through cable subscriptions, even independent content on the likes of Youtube), those movies take even more of a hit.

[Fiffy]

Originally Posted by jhrobinson

If I understand correctly, this is a content problem as much as a technology problem. TVOD purchases do not seem to be increasing enough to offset the decrease in physical media purchases. Meanwhile, streaming (or SVOD) seems to be steadily increasing. However, people seem to be paying subscriptions to SVOD primarily for SVOD-exclusive content.

In other words, people just aren't as interested in buying movies as they used to be. Is that correct?

I don't think that's the whole picture. SVOD is growing so rapidly in part because all the cord cutters are subscribing to Netflix and the like. This is now a mass movement (see e.g. here). So to some extent the SVOD numbers reflect a migration from traditional cable to Internet-based streaming, not only from ownership to subscriptions. At this point electronic sell-through is growing, we'll see where it goes in the future.

[Dynamo of Eternia]

Originally Posted by Fiffy

I don't think that's the whole picture. SVOD is growing so rapidly in part because all the cord cutters are subscribing to Netflix and the like. This is now a mass movement (see e.g. here). So to some extent the SVOD numbers reflect a migration from traditional cable to Internet-based streaming, not only from ownership to subscriptions. At this point electronic sell-through is growing, we'll see where it goes in the future.

Which to me is a big part of why it's very muddy to include digital subscription services in with home media financial statistics.

Sure, such services are impacting sales (both physical and digital) and physical rental to some extent or another. But it is by no means even remotely close to being a 1:1 comparison. And given the cord cutting aspect, many of these services having original programming, and the like, they are becoming more like an alternative to cable and satellite TV than as direct competition to other forms of home media.

By that logic, cable subscriptions with free on demand movies and such should be included. If watching a movie included with whatever form of subscription/cable service people have reduces the likelyhood of them buying that title or directly paying to rent it in some capacity (or just simply makes the person less likely to buy/directly rent any movie since they can spend time watching the movies included with their services), then there is fundamentally no difference in that regard.

[jhrobinson]

Originally Posted by Dynamo of Eternia

Which to me is a big part of why it's very muddy to include digital subscription services in with home media financial statistics.

Sure, such services are impacting sales (both physical and digital) and physical rental to some extent or another. But it is by no means even remotely close to being a 1:1 comparison. And given the cord cutting aspect, many of these services having original programming, and the like, they are becoming more like an alternative to cable and satellite TV than as direct competition to other forms of home media.

By that logic, cable subscriptions with free on demand movies and such should be included. If watching a movie included with whatever form of subscription/cable service people have reduces the likelyhood of them buying that title or directly paying to rent it in some capacity (or just simply makes the person less likely to buy/directly rent any movie since they can spend time watching the movies included with their services), then there is fundamentally no difference in that regard.

Yes, I agree.

This is why I think the commonly-used terms are:
1. Transactional Video On Demand (TVOD) - you rent or buy on a case-by-case basis. A good example would be iTunes, but you could also include cable TV on demand services.
2. Subscription Video On Demand (SVOD) - you pay a monthly fee for "all you can eat" content. Netflix is a good example of that.

And like you wrote, it is hard to make a 1:1 comparison because of the differences in content. TVOD content is more like physical media, but SVOD content can be wildly different.

[master gandhi]

Originally Posted by jhrobinson

Yes, I agree.

This is why I think the commonly-used terms are:
1. Transactional Video On Demand (TVOD) - you rent or buy on a case-by-case basis. A good example would be iTunes, but you could also include cable TV on demand services.
2. Subscription Video On Demand (SVOD) - you pay a monthly fee for "all you can eat" content. Netflix is a good example of that.

And like you wrote, it is hard to make a 1:1 comparison because of the differences in content. TVOD content is more like physical media, but SVOD content can be wildly different.

Absolutely. Look at all the original content that can be found on Netflix, Hulu and Amazon Prime. People aren’t just subscribing because they’re done collecting movies. They’re subscribing because that’s how you see all this original content immediately.

I subscribe to Netflix and Amazon Prime, but I also collect digital HD/UHD movies. So that means I’m contributing to both camps. That sort of cancels out my vote since I haven’t selected one over the other.

I’m sure plenty of people that collect movies also subscribe to at least one streaming service. So that’s also why subscription has increased so much. Collectors and non-collectors are buying into it.

It’s not always one or the other.

[Dynamo of Eternia]

Originally Posted by master gandhi

Absolutely. Look at all the original content that can be found on Netflix, Hulu and Amazon Prime. People aren’t just subscribing because they’re done collecting movies. They’re subscribing because that’s how you see all this original content immediately.

I subscribe to Netflix and Amazon Prime, but I also collect digital HD/UHD movies. So that means I’m contributing to both camps. That sort of cancels out my vote since I haven’t selected one over the other.

I’m sure plenty of people that collect movies also subscribe to at least one streaming service. So that’s also why subscription has increased so much. Collectors and non-collectors are buying into it.

It’s not always one or the other.

Exactly. I have subscriptions to Netflix and Hulu, in addition to my cable service.

But as you are well aware, I am a staunch supporter of physical media, and it is my preferred way of purchasing content.

My Netflix and Hulu subscriptions have nothing to do with whether or not I buy physical media (short of me seeing a movie for the first time through one of those services and deciding if it is something that I would want to buy or not), yet based on how these financial figures are calculated, by subscriptions to those services it a notch in favor of digital media and by extension a hit against physical media, which I very much disagree with.

I'm not going to cancel my subscriptions over that. Both services have some great original content. But the statistics are not truly presenting an accurate comparison IMO.

[Zu Nim]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

Digital HD is basically going to hit the tarmac in a couple of years as I predicted. Very little growth and it is now obvious that it isn’t going to be a hit. Subscription on the other hand, I always insisted that was the future.

Disc wise, nothing to worry about. Should be good for another ten years. Might even outlast Digital HD. At this point, Digital HD seems a bit pointless to me.

The CD will outlast MP3 downloads, the same will happen with discs and Digital HD. Waste of money for a format that we don’t even own properly and has poorer quality by far. No thanks, disc to the end.

Digital sales are still growing and physical sales are being decimated annually. Digital sales will equal physical in the not too distant future. Ownership overall is going down but the people who still want to own/collect are choosing digital more and more. I don't think that's what you predicted... And when you consider digital generally versus physical, that battle has been over for years and digital won decisively.

The issue has never really been "will they stop making discs" but "what selection will still be available on disc when the market is a shadow of its former self". It might be a $2B market in the future but if you can't get the film you want, that's the problem.

Originally Posted by jhrobinson

In other words, people just aren't as interested in buying movies as they used to be. Is that correct?

That's the bottom line.

Originally Posted by jhrobinson

So if you also include declining box office receipts, it seems that the problem is really the movies themselves.

2016's box office grew by over 11% from 2015 but the trends stayed the same. Look at the last graph in my above post - combined revenues excluding digital subscriptions. That's only digital and physical purchases and rentals. People don't want to own content and fewer are renting too.

I think people who buy physical media are similar to people who buy physical books. Most people do NOT buy books (at least not in the USA). But those who do buy books tend to buy physical books. That is why ebook sales have leveled off while physical book sales are increasing.

Book sales have seen a shift towards physical books because publishers raised ebook prices and actual books are cheaper. Anecdotally, the people I know with Kindles still mostly buy Kindle books but now with the occasional real book thrown in.

Originally Posted by Dynamo of Eternia

Sure, such services are impacting sales (both physical and digital) and physical rental to some extent or another. But it is by no means even remotely close to being a 1:1 comparison. And given the cord cutting aspect, many of these services having original programming, and the like, they are becoming more like an alternative to cable and satellite TV than as direct competition to other forms of home media.

By that logic, cable subscriptions with free on demand movies and such should be included. If watching a movie included with whatever form of subscription/cable service people have reduces the likelyhood of them buying that title or directly paying to rent it in some capacity (or just simply makes the person less likely to buy/directly rent any movie since they can spend time watching the movies included with their services), then there is fundamentally no difference in that regard.

Non-subscription revenues have been plummeting for years. There are only so many hours of entertainment you can consume in a day. The past couple of years are finally seeing revenue being pulled from cable and satellite - they couldn't pull any more out of home media.

But no, cable should not be included. Most cable is expensive appointment viewing; streaming offers not only some different content but a different way to get that content. (AVOD is at least in the ballpark with SVOD.)

[master gandhi]

Originally Posted by Dynamo of Eternia

Exactly. I have subscriptions to Netflix and Hulu, in addition to my cable service.

But as you are well aware, I am a staunch supporter of physical media, and it is my preferred way of purchasing content.

My Netflix and Hulu subscriptions have nothing to do with whether or not I buy physical media (short of me seeing a movie for the first time through one of those services and deciding if it is something that I would want to buy or not), yet based on how these financial figures are calculated, by subscriptions to those services it a notch in favor of digital media and by extension a hit against physical media, which I very much disagree with.

I'm not going to cancel my subscriptions over that. Both services have some great original content. But the statistics are not truly presenting an accurate comparison IMO.

They definitely aren’t accurate. I totally agree. Lumping subscription in with digital sales/rentals when comparing to physical sales/rentals makes no sense to me. It’s just trying to inflate digital revenue for the sake of argument. Netflix and Hulu are neither purchasing or renting.

[jhrobinson]

Quick point: the only reason why U.S. Box Office sales in 2016 were higher than 2015 was because of an increase in the price per ticket. In 2017, that trick stopped working.

Originally Posted by Zu Nim

Digital sales are still growing and physical sales are being decimated annually. Digital sales will equal physical in the not too distant future. Ownership overall is going down but the people who still want to own/collect are choosing digital more and more. I don't think that's what you predicted... And when you consider digital generally versus physical, that battle has been over for years and digital won decisively.

The issue has never really been "will they stop making discs" but "what selection will still be available on disc when the market is a shadow of its former self". It might be a $2B market in the future but if you can't get the film you want, that's the problem.



That's the bottom line.



2016's box office grew by over 11% from 2015 but the trends stayed the same. Look at the last graph in my above post - combined revenues excluding digital subscriptions. That's only digital and physical purchases and rentals. People don't want to own content and fewer are renting too.



Book sales have seen a shift towards physical books because publishers raised ebook prices and actual books are cheaper. Anecdotally, the people I know with Kindles still mostly buy Kindle books but now with the occasional real book thrown in.



Non-subscription revenues have been plummeting for years. There are only so many hours of entertainment you can consume in a day. The past couple of years are finally seeing revenue being pulled from cable and satellite - they couldn't pull any more out of home media.

But no, cable should not be included. Most cable is expensive appointment viewing; streaming offers not only some different content but a different way to get that content. (AVOD is at least in the ballpark with SVOD.)

[The_Donster]

Originally Posted by jhrobinson

It isn't an "either/or" situation, in my opinion.

This right here. It isn't a one or the other for me either. I'd go totally streaming a physical if my cable company didn't have me by the short hairs and require me to have cable to keep my internet down. Anyway, I buy what I know I will watch repeatedly on BD and buy digital copies on things I'll watch occasionally or when I'm on vacation. Most of them come from the physical media I'm already buying. So, win-win for me.

[jhrobinson]

Originally Posted by The_Donster

This right here. It isn't a one or the other for me either. I'd go totally streaming a physical if my cable company didn't have me by the short hairs and require me to have cable to keep my internet down. Anyway, I buy what I know I will watch repeatedly on BD and buy digital copies on things I'll watch occasionally or when I'm on vacation. Most of them come from the physical media I'm already buying. So, win-win for me.

Yes, and it will be interesting to see what the FCC's new rule changes will do to our streaming in the USA.

[alchav21]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

Digital HD is basically going to hit the tarmac in a couple of years as I predicted. Very little growth and it is now obvious that it isn’t going to be a hit. Subscription on the other hand, I always insisted that was the future.

Disc wise, nothing to worry about. Should be good for another ten years. Might even outlast Digital HD. At this point, Digital HD seems a bit pointless to me.

The CD will outlast MP3 downloads, the same will happen with discs and Digital HD. Waste of money for a format that we don’t even own properly and has poorer quality by far. No thanks, disc to the end.

Hey Steedeel, good to hear from you I thought you were gone. You still don't see the Light, Digital HD is doing fine and since MA the Movie Collection is off the Sheets. Discs are in trouble, and I say UHD Discs are the last format. Everything is going on Servers, and Networks are The Future. Discs will be around for a while, but only in Niche Markets. Networks and Servers are taking over, Bitcoin has proven this. The need for Physical is becoming a thing of the past. We live in a time of instant gratification, and hunting and playing Discs is just becoming Ancient.