81:19 Nielsen/VideoScan Weekly Sales Numbers

[aphex]

Originally Posted by stockstar1138

simply being day-and-date releases you can bet hot rod and mbh will do at least 12k a piece, transformers and shrek combined will do 45k, i think that old school and anchorman appeal very well to the add on crowd and those could do 25k combined, approx. 95k in movie sales right there.

im seeing blu-ray like this

LFoDH - 25k
Spidey + Ratatouille = 60k
Thats 85k right there.
Open Season, Hairspray and Santa Clause 3 will all drop off the map, but combined will sell 10k to match HD DVD 95k number
300 will do well again, PE HD DVD will outsell it on PE on BD.
The rest is up in the catalog titles, I don't know, but if HD DVD has one of those buy a player and scan a bunch of movies with it deals, it could really hurt this weeks numbers.

This week is going to be based off old catalog titles, which blu-ray should win, but i think its going to be a 53:47 kind of a week.

you forgot that I know who killed me movie. sure it was complete ass(never saw it tho) but when I went to 3 bestbuys lookin for paprika they each sold out of both movies(altho they prolly didn't carry much of either)

[Razzy]

Originally Posted by CptGreedle

I think something Sony (or the BDA) did is working. I mean, with numbers like that... it's a wonder that HD-DVD is still around.

You know why HD DVD is still around? One word.....Paramount. Thanks to Toshiba and the 800lb gorilla's bribe.

Can you imagine how well Tranformers would have sold on Blu? DAMN!

[Alan Gordon]

Originally Posted by stockstar1138

This week is going to be based off old catalog titles, which blu-ray should win, but i think its going to be a 53:47 kind of a week.

I disagree! I think Blu-ray is going to be 65+ easily... I'm going to say 69/31 for a early guestimate...

~Alan

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by roachxp

But Walmart accounts for 40% of all DVD sales and everyone else lags behind. Too bad their number aren't counted in Videoscan.

They are estimated by Nielsen. So, it only matters if the estimates failed to catch a spike at Wal-mart.

One would hope Nielsen does more than simply multiply the Videoscan POS by a fixed number.

It's the Nielsen estimate that rejected the Paramount Transformers claim. Paramount agreed that the Videoscan data was accurate, but was trying to claim 75K more units sold outside Nielsen's full market estimates.

Gary

[gand41f]

Originally Posted by Terjyn

Actually, you don't know this. A common practice with competing percentages is to always round down the higher number, which would mean these results are between 51 and 51.999999 for Blu.

The main reason they do this is to prevent 99.5 from rounding up to 100.

Just wanted to point out that Terjyn was right and I was wrong about this.

It's good to have people from all fields of expertise.

enjoy
gandalf

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by stockstar1138

This week is going to be based off old catalog titles, which blu-ray should win, but i think its going to be a 53:47 kind of a week.

That would mean a change of the norm since residuals have always been in Blu-ray's favour. HD DVD has shown no legs except for Planet Earth.

Gary

[stockstar1138]

Originally Posted by Razzy

You know why HD DVD is still around? One word.....Paramount. Thanks to Toshiba and the 800lb gorilla's bribe.

Can you imagine how well Tranformers would have sold on Blu? DAMN!

you know what thought, the Paramount fiasco might be the best thing to have happened. it lit a match under the bda's butt and got them po'd.

[DetroitSportsFan]

Originally Posted by Alan Gordon

I disagree! I think Blu-ray is going to be 65+ easily... I'm going to say 69/31 for a early guestimate...

~Alan

HD has Anchorman and Old School, and Blu.. let's face it... has nothing this week. Hopefully residual sales from Die Hard, Spidey, etc. carry Blu to an impressive win this week.

I'm guessing the gap will be closer in next week's numbers, something like 62:38.

But the week after that, Blu might be in the 75:25 range.

[xcg001]

Originally Posted by gand41f

Hell of a first post, xcg001. Welcome to the forum, nice to see another number cruncher here.

enjoy
gandalf

Thanks for the kind words gandalf!

Whoa, I have been on vacation for two weeks and this thread has grown 100 pages!

First congrats everybody for the last two weeks - I am especially encouraged at numbers the week shrek was released - it shows some strong growth of new blu owners and even the subsequent week shows that ~35-40k 40GB PS3 sold from Best Buy is signifficant. And of course the Tohiba nonsense that PS3 does not count as blu-player seems funny considering these 35-40k PS3 buyers were well aware of PS3 capabilities not to miss the free Open Season blu-ray. Why someone that has no knowledge of PS3 being a blu-ray player will get a free Blu-ray if he is not interested in watching blu-rays. It is a whole different story of course how much of these buyers will continue to buy disk on a regular basis. I strongly believe that the 20% equivalent percentage of PS3 as stand-alone is actually well underestimated since I know many people purchasing stand-alones that are not regular movie buyers (as Toshiba is discovering with $98 HD-DVD buyers) - in my opinion the 20% equivalent rate is the equivalent rate when compared the relatively wealthier first adopters that bougth stand alones for ~$3-500 . That should be the people with good income and having good HDTV. I want to bet that the PS3 equvalent rate will be a lot higher when compared to the buyers of $98 HD-DVD players.

And despite the good numbers I would still caution people here not to be overly optimistic about this format war and to expect quick resolution. Many people here forget that the goal of Toshiba is not to win with HD-DVD but rather to protect their DVD royalties. Of course they would be super happy to see HD-DVD being a winner but they will be also quite satified to see BOTH FORMAT dead - in this case they will keep status quo and will continue to collect their royalties.
And I promise that if that happen I will personally never buy anything made by Toshiba (or even product that has signifficant parts made by them).
As easily as they dropped $150M for Paramount/Dreamworks they can drop quite a bit more millions to flood the market with free players or to make other studio neutral. If they want they may even subsidize a big release to be DVD/HD-DVD combo only and immediately reversing the media sales stats (hopefully they still have manufacturing problems with the combos so that studios to be afraid of such move - nothing kills profit more than returns/exchanges and pissing customers with defective products). We are talking about protecting billions here. My only hope for quick end is that Warner Brothers (and other movie studios) needs new standart to drive their own profits and realisation that they can end it quickly and less painfully but that is also subject to "incentives" (especially since so many compay CEOs have shown to care only about short term results). Another hope for all this bitter war may end is that important part of everyday business are relations between companies - as we know Toshiba does quite a bit of business with BDA companies especially with Sony. I really hope Stringer comment was something in that line (i.e. coming with some non disclosed compromise between Sony and Toshiba).

[Blu-Ray Buckeye]

Originally Posted by stockstar1138

simply being day-and-date releases you can bet hot rod and mbh will do at least 12k a piece, transformers and shrek combined will do 45k, i think that old school and anchorman appeal very well to the add on crowd and those could do 25k combined, approx. 95k in movie sales right there.

im seeing blu-ray like this

LFoDH - 25k
Spidey + Ratatouille = 60k
Thats 85k right there.
Open Season, Hairspray and Santa Clause 3 will all drop off the map, but combined will sell 10k to match HD DVD 95k number
300 will do well again, PE HD DVD will outsell it on PE on BD.
The rest is up in the catalog titles, I don't know, but if HD DVD has one of those buy a player and scan a bunch of movies with it deals, it could really hurt this weeks numbers.

This week is going to be based off old catalog titles, which blu-ray should win, but i think its going to be a 53:47 kind of a week.

Like I said before, it won't get below 61:39.

[stockstar1138]

Originally Posted by Blu-Ray Buckeye

Like I said before, it won't get below 61:39.

i hope your right. i know a lot of you guys are saying hot rod, anchorman, old school, and mr. bean won't do much, but we got 250k hd dvd players in the hands of xbox users who are desperate for content and these type of "funny" movies are right up there alley. Chuck and Larry did pretty well I thought, so why not these movies?

[badboi]

Did my part in buying some older catalog titles this week. Nothing on the new release schedule warmed my cockles, so nothing from the new list. Did buy 9 older releases and rented Paprika. Glad I only rented it. I do like anime, but damn. If you are interested in having a major mind screw, rent Paprika and Tekeenwhateverthenamewas and watch them back to back.

63:37 this week in favor of Blu. Anchorman, Hot Rod, Old School and Mr. Bean will probably appeal to quite a few of those HD numbskulls, but not sure it will help their cause much. Why doesn't HD DVD just die already?

[Fozziwig]

Originally Posted by Razzy

You know why HD DVD is still around? One word.....Paramount. Thanks to Toshiba and the 800lb gorilla's bribe.

Can you imagine how well Tranformers would have sold on Blu? DAMN!

There is little doubt that we would have seen several weeks with Blu-ray topping 80% (hopefully it will happen soon anyway).

$150 million bought HD DVD a lifeline.

However it is now clear that selling hundreds of thousands of cheap HD DVD players is having only a marginal effect on HD DVD media sales. In fact, I would say that of all the cheap players sold recently only around 20% are to new regular HD DVD buyers. Who cares what the rest were bought for.

The cheap player argument was the cornerstone of P/DW's excuse to drop Blu-ray support. Now we have the evidence proving what many of us thought (cheap players require cheap software), their format 'choice' is looking a bit tenuous.

[Alan Gordon]

Originally Posted by DetroitSportsFan

HD has Anchorman and Old School, and Blu.. let's face it... has nothing this week. Hopefully residual sales from Die Hard, Spidey, etc. carry Blu to an impressive win this week.

It has been proven MANY times that catalog titles rarely sell as well as new releases (with a few exceptions), and catalog titles sell better on Blu-ray than HD DVD.

Seriously, how many people out there are losing sleep that "Anchorman" and "Old School" are on HD DVD, and they don't have it? Those titles are probably not even going to be in the Top Ten charts...

"Hot Rod" and "I Know Who Killed Me" are the two titles to pay attention to, and neither one will probably do much. Residual sales are what's going to make the sales this week... and other than "Transformers", "Shrek 3" and "Planet Earth", most of those residual sales are going to come from the Blu-ray side.

Originally Posted by dialog_gvf

That would mean a change of the norm since residuals have always been in Blu-ray's favour. HD DVD has shown no legs except for Planet Earth.

BINGO!!!

~Alan

[Blu-Ray Buckeye]

Originally Posted by DetroitSportsFan

HD has Anchorman and Old School, and Blu.. let's face it... has nothing this week. Hopefully residual sales from Die Hard, Spidey, etc. carry Blu to an impressive win this week.

I'm guessing the gap will be closer in next week's numbers, something like 62:38.

But the week after that, Blu might be in the 75:25 range.

This line of thinking is deeply flawed. None of those are curtrent blockbusters. catalog titles don't move well and the new releases were both flops. Also this is not a normal week... this is the higher volume holiday season. Residuals on blockbusters from prior weeks will dominate the numbers this week. day & date will make a big difference as new blockbusters come out, but 50k people won't suddenly buy Hot Rod just because it's new.

[stockstar1138]

Originally Posted by Alan Gordon

It has been proven MANY times that catalog titles rarely sell as well as new releases (with a few exceptions), and catalog titles sell better on Blu-ray than HD DVD.

Seriously, how many people out there are losing sleep that "Anchorman" and "Old School" are on HD DVD, and they don't have it? Those titles are probably not even going to be in the Top Ten charts...

"Hot Rod" and "I Know Who Killed Me" are the two titles to pay attention to, and neither one will probably do much. Residual sales are what's going to make the sales this week... and other than "Transformers", "Shrek 3" and "Planet Earth", most of those residual sales are going to come from the Blu-ray side.



BINGO!!!

~Alan

id buy anchorman for sure. they don't do well, but they still are better than nothing and that's what blu-ray has for this week.

[Blu Titan]

Originally Posted by Alan Gordon

It has been proven MANY times that catalog titles rarely sell as well as new releases (with a few exceptions), and catalog titles sell better on Blu-ray than HD DVD.

Seriously, how many people out there are losing sleep that "Anchorman" and "Old School" are on HD DVD, and they don't have it? Those titles are probably not even going to be in the Top Ten charts...

"Hot Rod" and "I Know Who Killed Me" are the two titles to pay attention to, and neither one will probably do much. Residual sales are what's going to make the sales this week... and other than "Transformers", "Shrek 3" and "Planet Earth", most of those residual sales are going to come from the Blu-ray side.



BINGO!!!

~Alan

Everybody keeps forgetting about Mr Bean

[stockstar1138]

Originally Posted by BlueNeon

Everybody keeps forgetting about Mr Bean

mr. bean could have a very large impact if there are a bunch of international buyers, he is popular across the pond from what i here.

[Blu-Ray Buckeye]

Originally Posted by stockstar1138

i hope your right. i know a lot of you guys are saying hot rod, anchorman, old school, and mr. bean won't do much, but we got 250k hd dvd players in the hands of xbox users who are desperate for content and these type of "funny" movies are right up there alley. Chuck and Larry did pretty well I thought, so why not these movies?

Compare the U.S. box take for Chuck & Larry versus Hot Rod or Bean's Holiday.

[Alan Gordon]

Originally Posted by stockstar1138

i know a lot of you guys are saying hot rod, anchorman, old school, and mr. bean won't do much, but we got 250k hd dvd players in the hands of xbox users who are desperate for content and these type of "funny" movies are right up there alley. Chuck and Larry did pretty well I thought, so why not these movies?

Chuck And Larry was a DAY & DATE release... and unlike "Mr. Bean's Holiday", featured some HD eye candy in Jessica Biel. "Hot Rod" should do fairly well for a comedy on HD DVD, but nothing special. Same with "Mr. Bean's Holiday".

~Alan