Bill Hunt's latest on the format war (September 12)

[JadedRaverLA]

Originally Posted by CAB

Do you agree that a Neutral studio going exclusive is bad for the consumer and the HDM industry? I hate that Paramount went to HD DVD but I hate that they shafted the consumer a whole lot more.

This wasn't directed at me, my I'll throw in my opinion. Buying off a neutral studio rather than trying to get an opponent's exclusive studio to go neutral is very bad business, and very anti-consumer. The HD DVD/Paramount deal did absolutely NOTHING to increase the number of titles available on the HD DVD format. It merely decreased the number of titles to be released on the opposing format. So, thye did nothing for owners of their own format, and just "stuck it to" owners of the other format. I really don't get what it accomplishes. Personally, I feel shafted enough to decide pretty clearly now that I'll never buy HD DVD. If that was their goal, then I guess they won.

[radagast]

Originally Posted by kaliraver69

If Blu-Ray has a very strong video sales of 2:1 or a 80/20 ratio. You can call this war over and WB will become Blu-Ray exclusive. Too many things are hinting that they are going to be going BD exclusive. Their presence at IFA with the BDA I think was a strong indication and the fact that they also didn't show up for HD-DVD promotional group at IFA. Sales is what Warner wants (& is all about) they just care about their profit and want to make their shareholders happy. Going Blu-Ray exclusive only makes since if they want to increase their unit sales go up since HD-DVD will be dead without WB. They can't survive without WB!

Blu-ray already has a 2:1 sales ratio with hd-dud.

An 80/20 ratio would be 4:1.

[radagast]

Originally Posted by patrick99

With the news coming out three days after the Paramount news. Could the connection be any clearer?

Exactly. That was the time period, we now know, that Toshitba was trying to buy WB, with the result of WB telling Toshiba to piss off. That had to have been the reason for Nickerson's departure.

[radagast]

Originally Posted by tron3

I usually try to listen to everyone's opinion to help broaden my own concept of what is actually true. In general, the numbers don't lie, but people do.

I read that entire article by Bill Hunt and he has shown me more in that one article than I could learn in a month of sifting through the FUD mucking we see.

Warner is "sitting on the fence" with both legs dangling in the BD camp. The more Warner movies we buy, the more we can coax them to jump in. I have new found respect for Warner to not take the pay off and actually do business right for the sake of their image and customers.

I disagree on one minor detail. If Warner jumps the HD-DVD ship, the war will be technically over, but major casualties. For one thing, Paramount is still under an 18 month contract. Unless Toshiba yields and lets them buy out of the remainder contract, we still aren't going to see Transformers and other films for about another 18 months.

Warner going exclusive BD would be a major nuke on Toshiba which is already war torn. I'm sure Toshiba is still trying to get their attention. They may already see the writing on the wall. But for craps sake, don't commit finanical suicide and throw good money after bad.

You fight a good fight Toshiba. I commed you on making a product that not only yielded quality but built upon DVD technology to keep costs low. But even PC makers left behind ISA, EISA, VESA, and other bus technologies so progress can be made. Even PCI will be history in a few more years. Your hearts were in the right place, Toshiba, but the consumers are at your throats now. Don't wait for the second nuke to get dropped. Get out while you still have the finances to develop blu-ray and make HUGE profits in a world which is largely becoming blu.

By the beginining of next year, we will probably be seeing stories about Toshiba offering big bucks to Warner just to stay neutral. That is Toshiba's only chance.

[Blu-Ray Buckeye]

Originally Posted by tron3

Don't wait for the second nuke to get dropped.

Rough phrasing for a Japanese company.

[Blu-Ray Buckeye]

Originally Posted by JadedRaverLA

Buying off a neutral studio rather than trying to get an opponent's exclusive studio to go neutral is very bad business, and very anti-consumer.

Agreed, especially when the sales were 2:1 the other direction. If they choose to drop neutrality and go exclusive to the side that was providing the majority of sales, you could argue that it is at least consumer driven although not as friendly as staying neutral.

[tron3]

Originally Posted by radagast

By the beginining of next year, we will probably be seeing stories about Toshiba offering big bucks to Warner just to stay neutral. That is Toshiba's only chance.

I have to hand it to Toshiba. They certainly kept their hand longer in the cookie jar than I expected. They taped their hand to the cookie jar, but the did it.

Part of the thing is even with BD outselling on average of 2:1, HD-DVD is making a strong showing. They can't ignore that market share because it represents a nice profit to them. Neither side wants to loose bragging rights by loosing this war. Let's not under estimate them, they are shrewd and have their back to the wall. People and animales are always more vicious when cornered.

Too bad they will go the way of Laser Disc and be known as LD-DVD.
Anyone here remember Super VHS (Beta equivilent), or Digital VHS (HD equivilent)? Anyone buy one? No. Why? Just another rehash. People may hate change but we tend to love new technologies - at least in time.

[RickD]

Originally Posted by Maxpower1987

And firing their pro-HD DVD head of HDM should have given it up completely.

Unfortunately pretty much all HD DVD fans actually bought HDD's story that Nickerson was a neutral fanboy.

Do we know for a fact that he was fired? Or more accurately, that Warner wanted him gone?

On a side note, I hope Warner releases their HD-DVD exclusive titles on BD soon, since they should have some prototypes of upcoming 1.1 players to start testing on.

Rick

[WickyWoo]

Do we know for a fact that he was fired? Or more accurately, that Warner wanted him gone?

You leave a major studio whose HD sales are the top of the industry for a no-name startup as rumors fly that the company you worked for for 16 years just tried to buy off your current employer in a move that would likely bring all of HD media down in a crushing stalemate

Yeah, that was his choice

As with so many firings at high level, they "leave to pursue other interests".

[Scorxpion]

BUT BD IS ANOTHER CASE and cannot be comparable to Digital-VHS or Super VHS or HD-DUD

Damn on you TOSHIBA if you admit and conclude at first you have a failure format will never get a daylight as you wish only by throwing money and buy your illusion victory.

for example if they know they did it the correct format ,we may have never falling now under TL51..And again hopefully will get attention.

[RickD]

Originally Posted by WickyWoo

You leave a major studio whose HD sales are the top of the industry for a no-name startup as rumors fly that the company you worked for for 16 years just tried to buy off your current employer in a move that would likely bring all of HD media down in a crushing stalemate

Yeah, that was his choice

As with so many firings at high level, they "leave to pursue other interests".

Ah yes, I forgot he worked for Toshiba in the past. Yea, I can definitely see the conflict of interests there.

Rick

[pro-bassoonist]

First of all, this is an excellent article by Mr.Hunt. It is well-written, logically-sustained, practically summing up the way I feel about the format fiasco.

Second, I have a difficult time agreeing with the notion that WB will easily go Blu-exclusive. If for no other reason at least for the fact that they hold patent rights for HDDVD. There has to be a very strong indicator, perhaps a sales ratio of 3:1 during the Christmas season, that would change their current stance.

There are however two facts (and possible scenarios) here that could not be avoided!

Fact 1: WB going HDDVD-exclusive will not end the war! At least not in a foreseeable future. It will create a statistical tie between the major studios which will prolong the current state of affairs indefinitely. Eventually, the consumer will skip the Hi-Def format based on uncertainty, lack of properly defined standards. At this point WB's supposedly large dividends from their HDDVD patent rights will be insignificant. the market will evolve into a "niche" where only occasional blockbusters will be released. Mass adoption will not occur.

Fact 2: WB going Blu-Ray exclusive will have a ripple effect on the film industry. The war will not end immediately but as early as April of 2008 there will be substantial reorganizations within the two camps.

The reason I see the second option as a difficult one for WB is their patent involvement with HDDVD. I could only guess what was the motivation behind Nickerson's departure but as the article indicates (the interview posted last night) WB are definitely on the fence. And I am very skeptical of them having a BLU-exclusive move as early as January of 2008.

Finally, what truly worries me is the presence of Microsoft. No one, and i mean no one, can compete with them. There is too much money there and SONY is clearly the underdog. To put it bluntly: I am too scared of them!

Pro-B

[tron3]

Originally Posted by Scorxpion

BUT BD IS ANOTHER CASE and cannot be comparable to Digital-VHS or Super VHS or HD-DUD

Damn on you TOSHIBA if you admit and conclude at first you have a failure format will never get a daylight as you wish only by throwing money and buy your illusion victory.

for example if they know they did it the correct format ,we may have never falling now under TL51..And again hopefully will get attention.

Let's reverse the image for a moment and the picture will be clear. For arguements sake, let's say both formats held 25Gb at a single layer. Let's say they used the same compression and both had brilliant pictures. Equal everything, except for compatibility.

Except for 2 differences. One is price and the other was studio support. Let's say Toshiba definately had the price advantage. Would blu-ray win because the name is cool? All other things being equal I see HD-DVD winning. Unless they merged the products where as one kept the name and the other kept the technology. At one time I was hoping they would use the blu-ray technology and call it HD-DVD. Looking back, that would be a mistake. Putting words like "Super", "Ultra" and the like in front of a brand name only soups up an old product. Not a bad thing, but blu-ray has the better name. It says more.

Blu-ray is winning because it is better, not because it is cheaper.

[BigB88]

Originally Posted by JadedRaverLA

This wasn't directed at me, my I'll throw in my opinion. Buying off a neutral studio rather than trying to get an opponent's exclusive studio to go neutral is very bad business, and very anti-consumer. The HD DVD/Paramount deal did absolutely NOTHING to increase the number of titles available on the HD DVD format. It merely decreased the number of titles to be released on the opposing format. So, thye did nothing for owners of their own format, and just "stuck it to" owners of the other format. I really don't get what it accomplishes. Personally, I feel shafted enough to decide pretty clearly now that I'll never buy HD DVD. If that was their goal, then I guess they won.

I can give you $150 million reasons of what it accomplished, suffice to say, when you bribe someone, normally there are very few winners that can come out singing happy tunes. The HDM industry lost on this deal, the consumers lost, Blu-Ray lost, the HD-DVD group and Paramount have lost on the PR front and there are a lot of consumers who won't forget what Paramount did. That all said, it really didn't even cause a ripple in the Home Theatre market, essentially the stats skewed for a week or so and that was it, we are still in a niche market.

[Proteus]

Originally Posted by tron3

Let's reverse the image for a moment and the picture will be clear. For arguements sake, let's say both formats held 25Gb at a single layer. Let's say they used the same compression and both had brilliant pictures. Equal everything, except for compatibility.

Except for 2 differences. One is price and the other was studio support. Let's say Toshiba definately had the price advantage. Would blu-ray win because the name is cool? All other things being equal I see HD-DVD winning. Unless they merged the products where as one kept the name and the other kept the technology. At one time I was hoping they would use the blu-ray technology and call it HD-DVD. Looking back, that would be a mistake. Putting words like "Super", "Ultra" and the like in front of a brand name only soups up an old product. Not a bad thing, but blu-ray has the better name. It says more.

Blu-ray is winning because it is better, not because it is cheaper.

Good assessment; however, you forget one key thing: Only Toshiba makes HDDVD players. With every other single manufacturer (and their marketing dollars) behind Blu-ray right now, Blu-ray would win. No question.

This is why inevitably Blu-ray will 'win' this 'war' now. Not only does it have better technology (the positive you pointed to), but it also has the abundance of CE manufacturer support.

The studios really don't mean much to me from the marketing perspective unless a true slant were to occur. The studios will follow the market, they always have. Right now they are trying to power play so they can make demands and make money, but the cold hard reality is... They have no say. If all the manufacturers only make a player in one format, that format wins. Suffice to say, all CE manufacturers are making players in only one format, Blu-ray, with only one notable exception: Toshiba.

Once all of these new players hit the market and retailers shelves including all the marketing dollars that _each and every manufacturer_ brings to the table (consider all the additional shelf space also) it's game over.

Of particular interest here also is the Blu-ray camcorder that Hitachi has announce for _this_ holiday season. People can now easily make home movies for their Blu-ray standalone (or any other purpose) as well as watch HDM. It's a massive advantage that only Blu-ray will have this holiday season.

[Maximus]

Originally Posted by pro-bassoonist

Fact 1: WB going HDDVD-exclusive will not end the war! At least not in a foreseeable future. It will create a statistical tie between the major studios which will prolong the current state of affairs indefinitely. Eventually, the consumer will skip the Hi-Def format based on uncertainty, lack of properly defined standards. At this point WB's supposedly large dividends from their HDDVD patent rights will be insignificant. the market will evolve into a "niche" where only occasional blockbusters will be released. Mass adoption will not occur.

WB's IP stake in HD DVD is way less than it is for DVD, sure they still have some IP, but with the way the BDA works WB will probably make more money if BD becomes the format of choice.

Fact 2: WB going Blu-Ray exclusive will have a ripple effect on the film industry. The war will not end immediately but as early as April of 2008 there will be substantial reorganizations within the two camps.

Yes, if WB went exclusive or Universal went neutral it would have a similar effect, basically ending the war.

The reason I see the second option as a difficult one for WB is their patent involvement with HDDVD. I could only guess what was the motivation behind Nickerson's departure but as the article indicates (the interview posted last night) WB are definitely on the fence. And I am very skeptical of them having a BLU-exclusive move as early as January of 2008.

Well, if you don't know about the manner in which Nickerson departed, you shouldn't make any assumptions. They will without any doubt all be wrong.

Finally, what truly worries me is the presence of Microsoft. No one, and i mean no one, can compete with them. There is too much money there and SONY is clearly the underdog. To put it bluntly: I am too scared of them!

Pro-B

True. MS are ******s, people in the PC world have had to deal with their crap for more than 20 years and now the HT world will have to deal with them.

[Maximus]

Originally Posted by RickD

Do we know for a fact that he was fired? Or more accurately, that Warner wanted him gone?

It depends on who you speak to...

[Terjyn]

I actually wouldn't want to see Warner "exclusive" in the Paramount sense.

I want to see them switch over to new releases being Blu-Ray only, but continue to support and prior releases and any current announcements.

Warner doing what P/DW did would be just as bad.

Now if Toshiba decides to drop HD-DVD, that's fine. Then you can complete bail. Otherwise, don't screw with the people who love movies and HD in general.

[glenn22]

Originally Posted by Terjyn

I actually wouldn't want to see Warner "exclusive" in the Paramount sense.

I want to see them switch over to new releases being Blu-Ray only, but continue to support and prior releases and any current announcements.

Warner doing what P/DW did would be just as bad.

Now if Toshiba decides to drop HD-DVD, that's fine. Then you can complete bail. Otherwise, don't screw with the people who love movies and HD in general.

I think if Warner are planning to switch they should just do it and not drag it out. If they do what you're suggesting then more people will get screwed over in the long run as new people will be buying players etc. The sooner this war is over the better.

[blu-rayfan101]

whats with this 3 layer hd dvd disc,if they come out with that sony better come out with their 100gb disc. If blu-ray does come out with the 100gb disc it will put hd dvd to shame!