2013 Oscar Discussion Discussion Thread

[vader4]

Originally Posted by foggy

looks about right, but daniel day lewis has actor all wrapped up, as much as i'd like pheonix to win it, it's a dead cert for lincoln.

+1

[Foggy]

Originally Posted by victim

Are the Oscar nominations really on January 10th?

The Oscar Poll finishes this Friday, so yeah.

[Snicket]

So Lincoln has this in the bag.

Usually there is a frontrunner and a hopeful, for example

King's Speech/Social Network
The Artist/The Descendants

This year the frontrunner is obviously Lincoln, but as of right now, there is no singular hopeful. We are looking at Argo, Zero Dark, maybe Les Mis (if they can get a good campaign going after some globe wins) and maybe Silver Linings. Unless one makes a big push from the pack then mathematically they will all cancel each other out make it that much easier for Lincoln to win.

My big question I have yet to see is where the Weinsteins will put their efforts, it has to be silver Linings but that front has been awfully quiet. Perhaps they are thinking the win over Lincoln is too high a mountain to climb and are calling it quits, or they are waiting for nomination to begin their push.


The other big twist is the inclusion of Skyfall in the producers guild nominations. While I don't see the Academy going the same way, this is a giant clue that The Master is now completely out of the race.

So with the producer's guild noms in mind, the nominations for best picture will look like: (I'm 90% sure of this list)

Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Les Miserables
Moonrise Kingdom
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

There you have it, 9 films to be nominated for best picture. Lincoln the obvious winner.

[chris_sc77]

I think when all is aid and done the Academy is honestly gonna give best picture to ARGO.
Lincoln could win. It certainly could and it will be close but my money will be on Argo. Nothing that special and memorable but a well made easy to enjoy film that takes no chanches. That is what they have been giving the Oscar to lately and for that reason Argo will win. Spielberg has already been rewarded for better, more epic films . Hooper and Bigelow both undeservedly won already.
IMO it deserves to be Tarantino to win Picture, Screenplay and Director but I doubt that will happen and he will be screwed yet again. Hope he can at least get Director and Screenplay.

[Ernest Rister]

Originally Posted by chris_sc77

I think when all is aid and done the Academy is honestly gonna give best picture to ARGO.
Lincoln could win. It certainly could and it will be close but my money will be on Argo. Nothing that special and memorable but a well made easy to enjoy film that takes no chanches. That is what they have been giving the Oscar to lately and for that reason Argo will win. Spielberg has already been rewarded for better, more epic films . Hooper and Bigelow both undeservedly won already.
IMO it deserves to be Tarantino to win Picture, Screenplay and Director but I doubt that will happen and he will be screwed yet again. Hope he can at least get Director and Screenplay.

If Tarantino wants a Best Picture Oscar, he needs to make a movie that can be embraced by the industry without controversey.

From where I sit today, it's Lincoln's to lose.

[EricJ]

Originally Posted by chris_sc77

I think when all is aid and done the Academy is honestly gonna give best picture to ARGO.
Lincoln could win. It certainly could and it will be close but my money will be on Argo.

As much as I'd like to disappoint-proof myself ahead of time, and say "Oh well, when the Best Picture is all about the Performance, they lock the award to the performance and give the Picture to something else", to be honest, I can't think of what else besides Lincoln they would give it to.

Les Mis, if it gets nominated, is still too commercial (even the best musical as Best Picture died off with Oliver, and Chicago winning was more of an industry statement), and the only other plausible nominees are down to Argo and Zero Dark Thirty.
And I just keep seeing those as "cancelling each other out", with dopey West Coast voters who think both movies were about Bin Laden, and give it to neither one. (Although of the two, Argo has the inside track with the voters, for being the movie-industry in-joke nudge.)

So while I'm too cautious yet to bet ON Lincoln for Picture, I'm not betting on anyone else just yet.

Originally Posted by Ernest Rister

If Tarantino wants a Best Picture Oscar, he needs to make a movie that can be embraced by the industry without controversey.

If Tarantino wants a Best Picture Oscar, he has to make one idea for 90 unbroken minutes without suddenly indulging an urge to make 70's blaxploitation jokes.
(Y'know, when Pulp Fiction first came out, we said, "Wow, it's non-linear and all over the place, how revolutionary and stylistic!" We now know the truth--It wasn't "style", that's just how he thinks. )

[blu-mike]

Skyfall will get a nom for best picture.

[Hucksta G]

I still think Zero Dark Thirty is the front runner.

[Walts Ghost]

I think that 'Lincoln' is definitely the front runner. I really think it's the safest bet at this point.

[Cinemach]

Originally Posted by Hucksta G

I still think Zero Dark Thirty is the front runner.

Originally Posted by Walts Ghost

I think that 'Lincoln' is definitely the front runner. I really think it's the safest bet at this point.

In the Picture race, ^^these two are the light frontrunners, with Argo and Les Miserables playing strong spoilers as of yet. If Silver Linings Playbook makes a little more dough (ie gets seen by some more people) it can make things real interesting.

This could shape up to be the most open race that we've had in a few years.

[Snicket]

Originally Posted by blu-mike

Skyfall will get a nom for best picture.

Naw...

Originally Posted by Hucksta G

I still think Zero Dark Thirty is the front runner.

I wish...

Originally Posted by Cinemach

In the Picture race, ^^these two are the light frontrunners, with Argo and Les Miserables playing strong spoilers as of yet. If Silver Linings Playbook makes a little more dough (ie gets seen by some more people) it can make things real interesting.

This could shape up to be the most open race that we've had in a few years.

IF those things happen it will be an interesting race. After the noms are announced we should see who wants to take on Lincoln. If Argo or Les Mis/Silver Linings make an equally strong push mathematically Lincoln wins. The only chance for a Lincoln upset is if there is ONE film that breaks away from the pack.

[Doomnaut]

Harvey Weinstein already bought Silver Linings Playbook's Best Picture Oscar. The cat's in the bag and the bags in the river.

[darry]

Originally Posted by Doomnaut

Harvey Weinstein already bought Silver Linings Playbook's Best Picture Oscar. The cat's in the bag and the bags in the river.

Since when are Oscars up for sale?

[Snicket]

Originally Posted by Doomnaut

Harvey Weinstein already bought Silver Linings Playbook's Best Picture Oscar. The cat's in the bag and the bags in the river.

All evidence points to the contrary but whatever...

[Doomnaut]

Originally Posted by darry

Since when are Oscars up for sale?

You can bribe academy voters.

[EricJ]

Originally Posted by Snicket

All evidence points to the contrary but whatever...

You can buy your way into the nominations, with FYC hype (which is what Harv specializes in) but it'd be a pretty thin year for it to actually win.

A quarter, a cookie, and a reserved table at a cast party will get you a Golden Globe, however.

[remake]

Originally Posted by Doomnaut

You can bribe academy voters.

Meryl Streep does it every year.

[Foggy]

Writers guild nominees

http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/2013-wr...-looper-boost/

Extra boosts for Moonrise, Looper, Wallflower and The Master along with other dead cert nominees.

[Angel Eyes]

Loved Argo but I think Lincoln wins it. But the only one I really care about is Best Actor and that should be hands down DDL wining the award.

[remake]

Entertainment Weekly is saying it'll be between Jennifer Lawrence and Jessica Chastain.

Is J. Lawrence's performance really that great in SLP?