Phloyd's Bold (?) Predictions for Year End

[phloyd]

Ok, some of these may not be so bold, but feel free to discuss or disagree...

Perhaps we can revisit at year end and see how I did

1) Paramount and WB will release BD and HD DVD discs with VC-1. This will render the 'image quality' argument in favour of HD DVD moot since both formats will inherently have the same encoding for the video in the cases where you have a choice of formats.

Edit: WB released VC-1 BDs on Sept 5, but it seems that Paramount is releasing MPEG2 but good quality discs none the less

2) PS3 will be launched and will effectively offer a BD player for $499 (or $599 with HDMI). This will render arguments in favour of the HD DVD being a cheaper player alternative moot.

Edit: News is that the cheaper PS3 will also be HDMI, equalling the retail of the HD-A1 player

3) By year end there will be more PS3s and BD players in households than HD DVD players. This will render arguments that HD DVD has a bigger install base moot.

Edit: vgcharts is saying 1.2 M players. Not sure what 360 add-on sold, but confident that more PS3s than HD DVDs at this point

The following may happen by year end though confidence is not high enough for me to call them a prediction. I think end of Q1 2007 is a more likely date.

1) 50 GB Bluray pressed discs go into mass production.

Edit: Looks like this will be true with releases mid November!

Edit2: Big titles like Superman Returns are on BD50 - BDA has done well to get so many BD50 releases in 2006!

2) Columbia Tristar authors a reference quality BD

Edit: Empire of the Sun?

I think prediction 3 carries some interesting weight in the light of the Joe Six Pack discussions. PS3 will likely put BD playing capability in the hands of people who are not so picky about image quality. Also the movie option is secondary to the gaming so I don't think I would equate a PS3 owner with an HD DVD player owner since the essential intent is different. Though while we might expect the PS3 owners to buy less movie discs, there should be many more of them than HD DVD players so it could easily result in a lot of movies sold.

In any case, assuming I am correct with my predictions there is not much left to differentiate between the formats. In my opinion the key remaining consideration is content. And that not only applied to titles but also to extras etc. WB could become part of that equation if they continue to make feature reduced BD discs even after they start using VC-1.

All else being equal it comes down to the content.