When will Toshiba finally admit defeat?

[The Don]

Originally Posted by almy

While I doubt we'll see any admissions of defeat from Toshiba, the January CES would be the logical time for announcements from other equipment manufacturers and movie studios. It may be wishful thinking, but we could see encouraging news from Warner and Universal - or not.

encouraging news from Warner is a lot more reasonable than encouraging news from Universal...

of course, encouraging news from Warner is more along the lines of a release date for the movies on HD-DVD that aren't out for BD...

[SpikesBluBlooded]

The recent Neilson numbers are very telling of where things are going, and the numerous posters out here that have pointed out the retail aspect of this war are absolutely correct. Sales = shelf space. Plain and simple, if Blu-ray consistently gets 70%+ of the sales, they will receive 70%+ of the shelf space. Eventually the numbers will push HD DVD right off the shelf, leaving it to on-line retailers as the only supply source for HD DVDs.

This is how I perceive the war ending. For me, it started the day that the major brick-and-mortar rental store went Blu-ray exclusive. $99 players don't translate into $30+ software purchases, they translate into rentals, and your only option is for on-line rentals like Netflix for the most part. While that market is growing, I think the average consumer still prefers to go in-store for the impulse rental of being able to take it home and watch it that night.

I picked up a DVD yesterday from BB (a title not available in either format that I wanted), and Blu-ray occupied 5 of the 8 bays in the aisle, sharing it with 'New Releases'. As there were a few new HD DVD releases mixed with regular DVD new releases, I had assumed that the HD DVDs had been mixed in with the regular DVDs until I went around the corner, and there was the HD DVD section, but only 4 of the 8 bays in the aisle.

While that's not that big of a difference (55% vs. 45% shelf space), it was the LOCATION of the Blu-ray disks that I thought was most interesting, and the fact that the two formats were completely seperated now, when before at my location they would be side-by-side. I believe 2008 will be a significant year for the hi-def medium, and a very positive year for Blu-ray.

[Living Near Shamu]

Originally Posted by SpikesBluBlooded

The recent Neilson numbers are very telling of where things are going, and the numerous posters out here that have pointed out the retail aspect of this war are absolutely correct. Sales = shelf space. Plain and simple, if Blu-ray consistently gets 70%+ of the sales, they will receive 70%+ of the shelf space. Eventually the numbers will push HD DVD right off the shelf, leaving it to on-line retailers as the only supply source for HD DVDs.

This is how I perceive the war ending. For me, it started the day that the major brick-and-mortar rental store went Blu-ray exclusive. $99 players don't translate into $30+ software purchases, they translate into rentals, and your only option is for on-line rentals like Netflix for the most part. While that market is growing, I think the average consumer still prefers to go in-store for the impulse rental of being able to take it home and watch it that night.

I picked up a DVD yesterday from BB (a title not available in either format that I wanted), and Blu-ray occupied 5 of the 8 bays in the aisle, sharing it with 'New Releases'. As there were a few new HD DVD releases mixed with regular DVD new releases, I had assumed that the HD DVDs had been mixed in with the regular DVDs until I went around the corner, and there was the HD DVD section, but only 4 of the 8 bays in the aisle.

While that's not that big of a difference (55% vs. 45% shelf space), it was the LOCATION of the Blu-ray disks that I thought was most interesting, and the fact that the two formats were completely seperated now, when before at my location they would be side-by-side. I believe 2008 will be a significant year for the hi-def medium, and a very positive year for Blu-ray.

I thought BB had gone exclusive?

[The Don]

Originally Posted by Living Near Shamu

I thought BB had gone exclusive?

the original 250 stores that carried both formats...still do...

they just carry a whole bunch more BD than they do HD-DVD...

one of those stores is a few blocks from me..

[Kirsty_Mc]

To save face Toshiba would not IMO make a BD player, they would maybe make it a HD-DVD/BD combi player (keeping faith with the deluded souls that bought HD-DVD). After a few years it would become labelled a BD/HD-DVD Player. Only after a respectful period of time would they launch a BD only player.

I would first expect to see this as a combi drive in their laptops using the justification of BD being good for data... the slide to the Blu side of the force starting there.

[tvine2000]

Originally Posted by hc666

Well 72% at this point of the game is impressive.

With no real huge exclusive titles planned for 2008 to this point for HD DVD, if the December is 70%+ in favor of BR, I can't see how they will even plan a 4th generation of HD DVD players.

Also, no one else still making HD DVD players... whats to look forward to?

sorry but if you look at whats coming for bd in jan&feb2008
not much there ether

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by tvine2000

sorry but if you look at whats coming for bd in jan&feb2008
not much there ether

Resident Evil: Extinction
Shoot 'Em Up
3:10 to Yuma
Con Air
Man of Fire
Sunshine
The Rock
The Invasion
Monty Python's Life of Brian
Across The Universe
Crimson Tide
Me, Myself and Irene
Wall Street
Gone Baby Gone

Maybe nothing much there for YOU, but you can't possibly say there is nothing much there.

[sj001]

Originally Posted by tvine2000

sorry but if you look at whats coming for bd in jan&feb2008
not much there ether

I don't get it, how does BD not have a rock solid lineup for those months? They have many titles coming out, some are major catalog releases, and a couple of VERY solid day and dates.

[Whytewash]

2008 has some absolutly solid releases. There is no way, shape, or form that DUD will win. 3:10? the rock? crimson tide? common now!! What is not to love!

[Kirsty_Mc]

Originally Posted by sj001

I don't get it, how does BD not have a rock solid lineup for those months? They have many titles coming out, some are major catalog releases, and a couple of VERY solid day and dates.

Maybe they have some nice ones in the pipeline that they are keeping to themselves to burst any unsophisticated bubble which might temporarily inflate .

[Teazle]

Originally Posted by Kirsty_Mc

Maybe they have some nice ones in the pipeline that they are keeping to themselves to burst any unsophisticated bubble which might temporarily inflate .

I agree. Please guys, sophisticated bubbles only!

[quexos]

In January at the CES, right after Warner's conference ... LOL

nah, I don't know when, nobody knows when. But 2008 will be interesting. It should show the trend for HD

[JAGUAR1977]

2008 CES is going to be a wake up call for Toshiba and especially the media.

At '07 CES, HD-DVD bought themselves 12 months grace with promises of Chinese players, the 360 add-on, vastly inflated standalone sales predictions, Europe supporting HD-DVD, and were still riding on the back of the myth gamers don't buy movies.

This year, so say insiders, there will be staggering number of BD standalone players announced, including Chinese manufactuers. They can also point to the undoubted impact of the PS3, retailer support, and standalone sales that are in touch with HD-DVD, despite the price premium.

HD-DVD and Toshiba's period of grace is up, now they have to answer very difficult questions from inquisitive journalists.

[jamclaur]

Originally Posted by Teazle

In another thread on this subject I posted:


...this is the kind of settlement I'd like to see: Toshiba starts making dual-format players and stops production of HD-DVD-only players. There's a special discount for upgraders (bring in your old unit) of the A1, A2 etc to the new Toshiba dual player.

Here's the kicker, the special discount is partly funded by a waiving of the usual hardware licencing fees for Blu-ray. The waiver would apply by rebate only to the upgrades which have removed dedicated HD-DVD players from circulation. Blu-ray hardware manufacturers would have to agree on this as a special and very temporary concession to Toshiba which would help smooth out the ending of the format war. The HD-DVD-heads could then play their existing disc libraries and (if the upgrade price is right) couldn't really whine too much about the demise of their format.

The war could in effect be concluded on the hardware side of things if nobody is making HD-DVD-only players anymore and there's a smooth transition to Blu for the sticklers.

Are you secretly working for DUD and letting us know what's going to happen?

This sounds like the most logical thing on this thread so far.

[Living Near Shamu]

Toshiba will give up when...

1) Arnold wins the presidency of the US
2) Al Gore finally gives up trying to clean up the planet (and decides to live in space, recycling everything he consumes/wastes)
3) Nationwide Free Medical Insurance happens here (Canadian Style)
4) The IRS finally says - We have taken enough money. Take a free year, no taxes.

[Teazle]

Originally Posted by jamclaur

Are you secretly working for DUD and letting us know what's going to happen?

This sounds like the most logical thing on this thread so far.

Thank you for the compliment but no I am just an outside observer. I think that if the willpower is there, Toshiba and the BDA could sit down and quietly arrange a face-saving deal which lets the war fizzle out without HD-DVD having to admit they lost, and the simplest thing would be for Toshiba to announce they are leaving the HD-DVD-only player market to pursue dual-format players exclusively ...

[sphdle1]

Originally Posted by Kirsty_Mc

To save face Toshiba would not IMO make a BD player, they would maybe make it a HD-DVD/BD combi player (keeping faith with the deluded souls that bought HD-DVD). After a few years it would become labelled a BD/HD-DVD Player. Only after a respectful period of time would they launch a BD only player.

It would be the cheapest 1080i Blu-ray player out there for under $99!

[Quad]

When a message from Blu-ray reads "All your titles belong to us" on HD-DVD players

[Kirsty_Mc]

Originally Posted by sphdle1

It would be the cheapest 1080i Blu-ray player out there for under $99!

Not if it was a face saving combi player. Just painting BD on the front would double the value .

[sj001]

Originally Posted by Teazle

Thank you for the compliment but no I am just an outside observer. I think that if the willpower is there, Toshiba and the BDA could sit down and quietly arrange a face-saving deal which lets the war fizzle out without HD-DVD having to admit they lost, and the simplest thing would be for Toshiba to announce they are leaving the HD-DVD-only player market to pursue dual-format players exclusively ...

Yeah, and this time, leave Microsoft out of the deal, if it weren't for them, we wouldn't be in this mess!