89th Academy Awards ("Moonlight" wins Best Picture)

[Member-275053]

Oh, God! Already?

The nominees aren't even announced until January.

[dallywhitty]

Originally Posted by JWFORD

Oh, God! Already?

The nominees aren't even announced until January.

[Adam_ME]

Originally Posted by Karmasux96

Has Café Society been getting good enough buzz to really contend or are we throwing it in there due to the players involved being Academy favorites?

I ask because I thought buzz was generally lukewarm and, having seen it, I wasn't all that impressed so I'm just kind of surprised.

Not happening. Maybe some of the technical categories like set or costume design. I liked the movie, but it's middle-of-the-road Woody Allen. It's not good enough to get serious Oscar consideration.

We've got 3 1/2 months left in the year and I don't think I could make a Top 10 list right now. They better get some quality films out pronto.

[Karmasux96]

Originally Posted by imsounoriginal

Chicago was an anomaly, IIRC that was the first year the Oscars were in Feb instead of March and there are still people who say that if the Oscars HAD happened in March then The Pianist would've walked away with Best Picture (haven't seen Pianist but I've seen Chicago and while it's good, it's hard to believe it was really the Best Picture of 2002, which was a relatively strong year).

Still, a musical is somewhat overdue for some Academy love. And I don't blame you for thinking The Artist was a musical, there's definitely a lot of music some dancing in there. (You should see it btw, it's a nice little movie, even though I wouldn't have given it Best Picture I do enjoy it quite a bit.)

Didn't know that about 2002 but regardless of The Pianist, it was obviously a heavy favorite and its nominations would have held. Point being that the Academy won't necessarily disregard it because it's a musical. Lighthearted won't necessarily keep it out either - The Artist appears to be pretty easy going and looking back through the recent nominees for Best Picture alone we have The Martian, The Grand Budapest Hotel, American Hustle, Hugo, and Midnight in Paris. Of course, those are all terrible non-winning examples.

I think the team involved on this one has it right in the spotlight, so - worst case - it ends up like American Hustle with lots of nominations and no wins.

PS The Artist is sitting on my shelf waiting to be watched. Can never convince my wife to watch it lol.

[imsounoriginal]

Originally Posted by Karmasux96

Didn't know that about 2002 but regardless of The Pianist, it was obviously a heavy favorite and its nominations would have held. Point being that the Academy won't necessarily disregard it because it's a musical. Lighthearted won't necessarily keep it out either - The Artist appears to be pretty easy going and looking back through the recent nominees for Best Picture alone we have The Martian, The Grand Budapest Hotel, American Hustle, Hugo, and Midnight in Paris. Of course, those are all terrible non-winning examples.

I think the team involved on this one has it right in the spotlight, so - worst case - it ends up like American Hustle with lots of nominations and no wins.

PS The Artist is sitting on my shelf waiting to be watched. Can never convince my wife to watch it lol.

While I wouldn't consider American Hustle all that light-hearted (it's a dramedy at best), I get what you're saying. Hell, Birdman is considered a comedy and that just won a couple of years ago. But I have a feeling you're right that La La Land will end up with several nominations without necessarily winning any of them.

As for The Artist, at least you've already got it. Hopefully your wife comes around soon

[jabbercash]

Originally Posted by Adam_ME

Not happening. Maybe some of the technical categories like set or costume design. I liked the movie, but it's middle-of-the-road Woody Allen. It's not good enough to get serious Oscar consideration.

We've got 3 1/2 months left in the year and I don't think I could make a Top 10 list right now. They better get some quality films out pronto.

I personally really enjoyed Cafe Society. However, the buzz isn't there much. If it gets in anywhere it'll be for best cinematography and maybe screenplay. As for La La Land, it's the frontrunner right now.

The Birth of a Nation is definitely not happening because of the controversy. I can actually see it getting a Best Picture nomination, but nothing else, similar to Selma. I just don't think they'll want to nominate Nate Parker. Silence I'm not even sure is coming out this year, but I see it being kind of a divisive movie considering it's religious. Billy Lynn could very well take it, but Ang Lee has already won Best Director twice and the reviews aren't out yet so there isn't a whole lot of buzz.

La La Land seems like something right up the Academy's alley. It takes place in L.A, it's about Hollywood and actors, and the reviews are just incredible. Plus, even though everyone loved it, Whiplash did overpreform. Everyone knew JK Simmons would win the oscar, but it ended up getting nominated for 5, winning 3. This is also one of those movies that really can get into most major categories on paper, so it really seems like the safe bet right now.

[Adam_ME]

Originally Posted by jabbercash

I personally really enjoyed Cafe Society. However, the buzz isn't there much. If it gets in anywhere it'll be for best cinematography and maybe screenplay. As for La La Land, it's the frontrunner right now.

The Birth of a Nation is definitely not happening because of the controversy. I can actually see it getting a Best Picture nomination, but nothing else, similar to Selma. I just don't think they'll want to nominate Nate Parker. Silence I'm not even sure is coming out this year, but I see it being kind of a divisive movie considering it's religious. Billy Lynn could very well take it, but Ang Lee has already won Best Director twice and the reviews aren't out yet so there isn't a whole lot of buzz.

La La Land seems like something right up the Academy's alley. It takes place in L.A, it's about Hollywood and actors, and the reviews are just incredible. Plus, even though everyone loved it, Whiplash did overpreform. Everyone knew JK Simmons would win the oscar, but it ended up getting nominated for 5, winning 3. This is also one of those movies that really can get into most major categories on paper, so it really seems like the safe bet right now.

Damn, is La La Land that good? I loved Whiplash. It was actually my favorite film of 2014, so that would be quite a followup.

I did enjoy Cafe Society, but it's simply not Oscar material. Not unless 2016 goes down as one of the worst years in cinematic history.

I'm seeing Birth of a Nation next Thursday, so I'll let you know what I think. I'm starting to go the other way about its Oscar chances though. I thought Parker's past would be a hindrance. But with the buzz this is getting plus what's been said about Mel Gibson's Hacksaw Ridge, maybe a theme at the Oscars this year will be redemption.

I don't know about Billy Lynn. It could wind up being a great flick(it is Ang Lee after all), but Iraq war movies usually do really poorly. I don't know why Hollywood keeps making them.

[Jasonic]

Originally Posted by Adam_ME

but Iraq war movies usually do really poorly. I don't know why Hollywood keeps making them.

Yeah, that American Sniper movie was a huge flop.

[Adam_ME]

Originally Posted by Jasonic

Yeah, that American Sniper movie was a huge flop.

I said usually. Green Zone was a box office disaster. Jarhead tanked. So did Stop-Loss, Redacted, Home of the Brave, and In the Valley of Elah. War Dogs will be lucky to break even. Even The Hurt Locker which won Best Picture and Best Director didn't really make that much money.

[Jasonic]

Originally Posted by Adam_ME

I said usually. Green Zone was a box office disaster. Jarhead tanked. So did Stop-Loss, Redacted, Home of the Brave, and In the Valley of Elah. War Dogs will be lucky to break even. Even The Hurt Locker which won Best Picture and Best Director didn't really make that much money.

Half of those I haven't even heard of, and the other half just aren't even that good. Despite any of these, nothing about any of them and their box office successes should tell Hollywood to stop making Iraq war movies. That is just silly thinking. Hollywood knows there is a major target audience out there for them. They typically just don't market them properly. Lone Survivor is another one that was successful. Sure, it's Afghanistan, but that target audience doesn't differentiate between that. One major success is enough to keep trying.

[Hucksta G]

La La Land is getting excellent reviews.

[Adam_ME]

Originally Posted by Jasonic

Half of those I haven't even heard of, and the other half just aren't even that good. Despite any of these, nothing about any of them and their box office successes should tell Hollywood to stop making Iraq war movies. That is just silly thinking. Hollywood knows there is a major target audience out there for them. They typically just don't market them properly. Lone Survivor is another one that was successful. Sure, it's Afghanistan, but that target audience doesn't differentiate between that. One major success is enough to keep trying.

Lone Survivor and American Sniper show the blueprint for how to do a successful Iraq/Afghanistan movie. Make it about a real life individual who's revered and respected by Americans(most of them anyway). And make sure they're portrayed in a mostly heroic light.

Anything else and the public simply tunes it out.

[imsounoriginal]

Billy Lynn will almost certainly be a contender for Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, and maybe an acting award or two. Haven't even seen anything besides the trailer but it's Ang Lee taking on a real-life story with cutting-edge technology; pretty safe bet we'll be hearing a ton about it over the next six months.

[AaronJ]

If La La Land doesn't win Best Picture, I'll be shocked. It looks truly amazing.

[Spencer_Kain92]

the trailers for Billy Lynn just didn't do it for me. if the reviews are good, I'll definitely check it out but so far I'm not sold.

[imsounoriginal]

In recent years the early favorite never makes it past the finish line... just FYI.

[AaronJ]

Originally Posted by imsounoriginal

In recent years the early favorite never makes it past the finish line... just FYI.

Well, The King's Speech beat out The Black Swan which is just absurd. OTOH, who really cares? But ... for some reason ... I got very angry when The Black Swan didn't win, and I should have known better. Why care? Why have such a reaction? It's stupid.

But I loved that movie so much. Oh well. My bad.

[Impossible]

Originally Posted by AaronJ

Well, The King's Speech beat out The Black Swan which is just absurd. OTOH, who really cares? But ... for some reason ... I got very angry when The Black Swan didn't win, and I should have known better. Why care? Why have such a reaction? It's stupid.

But I loved that movie so much. Oh well. My bad.

I was hysterical as well

[Jasonic]

Black Swan never had a chance. It was The Social Network that was the early favorite until The King's Speech came in for the final swoop.


I think it's a bit silly to say you will be shocked if a certain movie doesn't win best picture this early on, whether you've seen the movie or not. And even sillier in this case when you haven't seen it.
Don't know why people get so livid and confused when the majority of the academy votes don't share their opinion.

[imsounoriginal]

Originally Posted by AaronJ

Well, The King's Speech beat out The Black Swan which is just absurd. OTOH, who really cares? But ... for some reason ... I got very angry when The Black Swan didn't win, and I should have known better. Why care? Why have such a reaction? It's stupid.

But I loved that movie so much. Oh well. My bad.

Well the early favorite that year was Social Network, honestly Black Swan never stood a chance. Too dark and genre-y for the Academy.