Blu-ray to outsell DVD by 2011, says Sony Pictures

[Lou-Cipher]

http://www.afterdawn.com/news/archive/14979.cfm

It all depends on how fast Blu movies/players go down in price. IMO

[blu2]

Originally Posted by Lou-Cipher

http://www.afterdawn.com/news/archive/14979.cfm

It all depends on how fast Blu movies/players go down in price. IMO

Makes you wonder about the article and/or projections when the article indicates the following which is completely offbase:

According to the market reports, global sales of BD movies will rise from 9 percent at the end of 2007 to about 25 percent of all market share by the end of this year, and that the number was already at about 20 percent as of July.

[Bobby Henderson]

Y'know, I see endless numbers of complaints about the expense of movies on Blu-ray and I just have to say a lot of those complaints are way off base.

Frankly, a lot of those complaints are ignorant of the history of the DVD format and its MSRP pricing. In the first 3 years of the DVD format, most movies cost well over $20. Some even cost over $30. I paid nearly $40 for my Criterion Collection edition of Robocop.

New DVD releases still carry a hefty MSRP and even with the price discounted most new DVDs still cost $19 to $23 on average. The folks who believe new DVD releases typically cost $15 or $10 really need to get their facts straight.

Another factor is also being flatly ignored in the price complaints: the current, low value of the U.S. Dollar. Right now $1 is worth a lot less than its value in the late 1990s. A Blu-ray carrying a $25 or $30 price tag now is really no different than a DVD that cost $20 a few years ago.

With all of that stated, I don't think disc pricing is going to be a big factor in preventing Blu-ray from growing more and more popular.

HD-quality video is the future. DVD is doomed with technology of yesterday. The February 2009 switch to all DTV broadcasting will force a lot of people to upgrade their TV sets -especially with the low cost set top converter boxes not working very well. More than 30 million HDTV sets have already been sold. Millions more will be sold this fall in advance of the impending DTV switch.

Once someone upgrades their television to HDTV they usually don't want to go back to any SD stuff. People really pay more attention to image quality once they see the difference between HD and SD quality material. Old 480p video on DVD will seem very antiquated all of a sudden.

Though it may seem hard to believe that Blu-ray movies could be outselling DVD by 2011 (especially when BD is making up less than 10% of movie disc sales currently), I think 2011 could actually be a conservative estimate. Who knows for sure what could be happening 3 years from now?

[blu2]

Originally Posted by Bobby Henderson

Y'know, I see endless numbers of complaints about the expense of movies on Blu-ray and I just have to say a lot of those complaints are way off base.

Frankly, a lot of those complaints are ignorant of the history of the DVD format and its MSRP pricing. In the first 3 years of the DVD format, most movies cost well over $20. Some even cost over $30. I paid nearly $40 for my Criterion Collection edition of Robocop.

New DVD releases still carry a hefty MSRP and even with the price discounted most new DVDs still cost $19 to $23 on average. The folks who believe new DVD releases typically cost $15 or $10 really need to get their facts straight.

Another factor is also being flatly ignored in the price complaints: the current, low value of the U.S. Dollar. Right now $1 is worth a lot less than its value in the late 1990s. A Blu-ray carrying a $25 or $30 price tag now is really no different than a DVD that cost $20 a few years ago.

With all of that stated, I don't think disc pricing is going to be a big factor in preventing Blu-ray from growing more and more popular.

HD-quality video is the future. DVD is doomed with technology of yesterday. The February 2009 switch to all DTV broadcasting will force a lot of people to upgrade their TV sets -especially with the low cost set top converter boxes not working very well. More than 30 million HDTV sets have already been sold. Millions more will be sold this fall in advance of the impending DTV switch.

Once someone upgrades their television to HDTV they usually don't want to go back to any SD stuff. People really pay more attention to image quality once they see the difference between HD and SD quality material. Old 480p video on DVD will seem very antiquated all of a sudden.

Though it may seem hard to believe that Blu-ray movies could be outselling DVD by 2011 (especially when BD is making up less than 10% of movie disc sales currently), I think 2011 could actually be a conservative estimate. Who knows for sure what could be happening 3 years from now?

It would not suprise me if it happened in the US by 2011. I think the current share is actually pretty great and things look good for year end with the slate of blockbusters to come. If players are priced right it's clear sailing.

Global sales though I would doubt.

And if a Sony exec is going to make projections, then an absolute must is to present credible current data.

See source article here:

http://www.digitimes.com/systems/a20080801PD200.html

The global sales value of BD movie discs as a percentage of all types will increase from 9% at the end of 2007 to 20% in mid-2008, and further to 25% at the end of this year, Meade indicated. This is mainly because the number of BD movie releases is growing considerably. Additionally, the global sales volume of BD players as a proportion of all video players will rise from 7-10% in 2007 to as high as 15% in 2008, Meade explained. During the first half of 2008, the sales volume of BD players in the US and Europe increased on year by four times and six times respectively, Meade noted.

[theprophecy247]

good article but ill believe when i see it

[drobswim13]

Originally Posted by theprophecy247

good article but ill believe when i see it

Agreed, but I sure do want to see it happen fast!!

[quexos]

2011 they say ? it's possible but not certain. Seems a bit rash to state such a bold prediction. But it would be nice if it came true

[aviman33]

Originally Posted by Bobby Henderson

HD-quality video is the future. DVD is doomed with technology of yesterday. The February 2009 switch to all DTV broadcasting will force a lot of people to upgrade their TV sets -especially with the low cost set top converter boxes not working very well. More than 30 million HDTV sets have already been sold. Millions more will be sold this fall in advance of the impending DTV switch.

Wrong.. If your a cable or dish subscriber, the digital switch over has zero impact on the consumer. If your an OTA guy, the Fed's have you covered.

https://www.dtv2009.gov/

Whats your point about the low cost convert box's. People who have them really don't care about HD quality video. If they do, they can get a better quality converter box.

BTW, DVD isn't quite dead yet..

John

[Bobby Henderson]

Actually, I am far from wrong. 100% correct is more like it.

First, my point about the DTV converter boxes is they're crap. Low cost and low build quality.

Quite a few people in my area of Oklahoma have already obtained the $40 government coupons and bought DTV converter boxes. Our local ABC affiliate ran a news story this past week about those some of those boxes failing to work after only a couple of months worth of use.

Regarding cable and satellite providers, they will not support SD channels indefinitely.

Cable and satellite service providers can discontinue certain kinds of services and force users to switch out different receivers or cable boxes as their technology demands change.

Dish Network and DirecTV are both in an arms race of sorts trying to one-up each other over the amount of HDTV programming they provide. Verizon and others feel the pressure to respond to growing demands for more HDTV channels. All of those service providers have only a finite amount of bandwidth to accommodate TV channels.

On Friday, Dish Network "unplugged" any customer still using a MPEG-2 HD-capable receiver. It was mandatory for any HD customer of Dish Network to upgrade to a MPEG-4 based receiver. The upgrade wasn't automatically free either. Dish Network added 17 more HD channels on Friday, most of them premium channels (such as 8 HBO channels in HD). DirecTV is due to add more HD channels in mid-August.

At some point, the customer base for SD programming on satellite and cable services is going to become too small to continue providing service. The service providers will eventually use that cable or satellite bandwidth for HD use.

[Flea77]

Originally Posted by Bobby Henderson

Actually, I am far from wrong. 100% correct is more like it.

First, my point about the DTV converter boxes is they're crap. Low cost and low build quality.

What does DTV have to do with HDTV? Both HD and SD can be transmitted either analog or digital. The switch from analog to DTV has no direct impact on HD at all.

Allan

[aviman33]

Originally Posted by Bobby Henderson

Actually, I am far from wrong. 100% correct is more like it.

First, my point about the DTV converter boxes is they're crap. Low cost and low build quality.

Quite a few people in my area of Oklahoma have already obtained the $40 government coupons and bought DTV converter boxes. Our local ABC affiliate ran a news story this past week about those some of those boxes failing to work after only a couple of months worth of use.

Regarding cable and satellite providers, they will not support SD channels indefinitely.

Cable and satellite service providers can discontinue certain kinds of services and force users to switch out different receivers or cable boxes as their technology demands change.

Dish Network and DirecTV are both in an arms race of sorts trying to one-up each other over the amount of HDTV programming they provide. Verizon and others feel the pressure to respond to growing demands for more HDTV channels. All of those service providers have only a finite amount of bandwidth to accommodate TV channels.

On Friday, Dish Network "unplugged" any customer still using a MPEG-2 HD-capable receiver. It was mandatory for any HD customer of Dish Network to upgrade to a MPEG-4 based receiver. The upgrade wasn't automatically free either. Dish Network added 17 more HD channels on Friday, most of them premium channels (such as 8 HBO channels in HD). DirecTV is due to add more HD channels in mid-August.

At some point, the customer base for SD programming on satellite and cable services is going to become too small to continue providing service. The service providers will eventually use that cable or satellite bandwidth for HD use.

The cable companies love SD. They have limited bandwidth and SD allows them to fit many channels into that bandwidth. HD is a pain the cable companies ass. That's why the cable company lobby inserted a loop hole into the law with respect to DTV. SD converted to a digital transmission to your cable box is considered DTV. So they are broadcasting the same old SD crap with a handful of HD Lite broadcast. You obviously don't understand what your talking about.

The government box program is to help low income people, cheap people and people who don't give a dam about digital TV. If you want a better box, several are available, from $50 to $150.. But, they are not on the Fed's list because they will not subsidize converter box's with HDMI or component outputs.

By my accounting, your 100% wrong.

[Flea77]

Originally Posted by aviman33

BTW, DVD isn't quite dead yet..

John

What is this "DVD" you are talking about?

Allan

[CAB]

Originally Posted by Lou-Cipher

http://www.afterdawn.com/news/archive/14979.cfm

It all depends on how fast Blu movies/players go down in price. IMO

It left out, "Toshiba execs were unavailable for comment."

[BluOgre]

Originally Posted by Lou-Cipher

http://www.afterdawn.com/news/archive/14979.cfm

It all depends on how fast Blu movies/players go down in price. IMO

maybe, 2011 is a long way off right now. If the players and software come down in price and you give people something they think they need (that's not available on the DVD counterpart), I can see this happening.

[Dynamo of Eternia]

Originally Posted by aviman33

Another factor holding BD back is convenience. BD is massively inconvenient. For instance you buy your kids a Disney movie on BD. More than likely they can't play it at their friends house, since they probably don't have a bd player. They can't play it in the mini van's DVD player and they can't play it on their portable DVD player for the car. Also they can probably only play it in one location in the house.

Prices need to come way down so multiple unit can become feasible.

That isn't much worse than having DVD before it became mainstream. Yeah, it's not the most convenient thing in the world to have a movie that you can't play at your friend's house, but that alone won't hold the format back.

If there is any one single convenience issue, it is the need for firmware updates. Having to connect a BD player to the internet to update it, when people may not have an internet line running to the room that the player is in, is not convenient. Though even that seems as though it's becoming a thing of the past. Now that 2.0 players are coming out and becoming the standard, the issues of having to download a firmware update just to simply get the movie to play are starting to go away. I think it will get to the point where firmware updates will be few and far between, and will be more optional in the sense that they may improve some aspect of the performance (i.e. better audio options, etc), but will not be required to simply use the disc as had been the case in the past.

While not being able to currently play a Blu-Ray where ever you want isn't extremely convenient, I think people will somehow manage to survive. If a kid is taking their portable DVD player to grandma's house, odds are said child already has a decent collection of DVDs to choose from. Maybe they won't be able to take that new movie on Blu-Ray with them, but it's not as if they will be completely without entertainment.

If they want to hang out with a friend and they REALLY want watch a movie that this person only has on Blu-Ray and the friend doesn't have a Blu-Ray player, the the friend could come over to the Blu-Ray owner's house. These sorts of things are trivial in the grand scheme of things.

I do think that Blu-Ray will continue to grow for some time to come (they have been increasing for a while now, and the amount of BD content being released has significantly increased), and it is possible that by 2011 BD sales could outpace DVD sales.

Having said that, I do think we should take this info with a grain of salt. I mean, it is Sony saying this, and they aren't exactly a neutral third party looking in from the outside and making an assessment. They have a VERY vested interest in this format succeeding, so of course they are going to make it sound as good as possible. (I'm not bashing Sony here, but just making a logical observation).

That being said, I do hope Blu-Ray manages to outpace DVD by 2011. I love Hi-Def content and hate digital downloads, and Blu-Ray is the best and only option for that.

[djluis2k6]

When older movie titles on BD go down to about $10-12 like older movie titles on DVD go down to, then I can see it possible for Blu-Ray to outsell DVD sales. It surely will happen soon, but only when BDA starts finding a way to lower the cost of a BD. Even with using a BD, Sony has been able to keep PS3 games at about the same price they've had for their video games since releasing the original Playstation. So at some point, BDA should be able to do this for movie releases as well.