Rough economy challenges Blu-ray?

[mapledragon]

Originally Posted by Gremal

It's not just listening habits that are changing, but the entire approach to media, whether it's audio or video. It's becoming more "pausable" and more portable. People multitask and pause downloadable content and come back to finish it when they're ready. That's how it's being done, increasingly.

I'm not saying downloadable content will kill blu-ray right away, but it's sure not helping.

There are still some differences between audio and video. You can't watch a video while jogging, and that is a main stumbling block against dedicated mp4/video players.

Otoh, when added to phones, the youtube type application is a welcome value add. With video playback itself, there is no market for such a device unless it is an addon feature to others.

There is a lot of consumer interest in free video, witness the growth of youtube. Otoh, the market for paid downloads has to compete against the free downloads on price, and it has to compete against blu-ray on quality. In the end, given this climate, by bet is that the current participants, outside of the big players like AAPL and perhaps msft proxies, will all go out of business first before BD is in trouble.

In other words, any startup doing video download iptv that is not bankrolled by hard cash, if it needs to raise money in the next 2 years has a very high likelihood of going under, I would put that risk as extremely high.

So, if anyone in that field thinking that BD is the biggest threat to the download market, they're chasing the wrong tree, download iptv's biggest threat is that they are still far from being cash flow positive (let alone recoup past costs), while it is obvious to all that many many BD titles are profitable at this point.

Regardless of what happens to BD, the current download iptv players are not going to survive this. They still have a lot of infrastructure spending left and not enough money to get there, with no obvious ways to raise cash.

[Anthony P]

i thought itunes started in 2003?

http://www.theapplemuseum.com/index.php?id=43

[Anthony P]

There are still some differences between audio and video. You can't watch a video while jogging, and that is a main stumbling block against dedicated mp4/video players.

agree, the other two big differences are

1) that a service like itunes gives choice. If you only want one song from an album You can't buy a mini CD with just that song, but you can do that with itunes. If they only sold albums I don't think it would have ever grown as it did. This is also something that can't be done with movies, no one will want to buy (watch) chapter 1 of X and then chapter 3 of y and then chapter 20 of z. They will want to have and watch all of X, Y and Z

2) everyone has their own ipod (or other player) and their own music collection. And they can put it all (OK a real big chunk of it) on one very small portable device and have it with them. People are not that possessive of movies. Not only is there nothing that can handle it (I have over 300 BDs -some of which are TV series- I would need a device that has more then 10 TB and if I have it with me no one else can watch any of them. Unless you have very large capacity yet very small footprint that can instantaneously transfer data (and you are allowed to do it through the DRM) it is just so much easier to throw a handful of BDs (or DVDs) in the bag to bring on a trip then to transfer a handful of movies

[lonewolf8]

Originally Posted by JimShaw

Reading the Sunday paper The Press-Enterprise, I came across a large article regarding Blu-ray.

Following are a few excerpts.

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Rough Economy Challenges Blu-ray

Analysts Roger Kay predicts a dramatic drop in Blu-ray sales for the fourth quarter and beyond, pushing back adoption of the technology long enough to allow other forms of video over cable, satellite and the Internet to shut the window of opportunity for Blu-ray.

But Hollywood is still betting on the format, releasing more home video titles on Blu-ray.

“We’ve been investing quite a bit of R&D and our future into this business,” said Sven Davison, director of DVD production for 20th Century Fox Home Entertainment. “We definitely feel it shows a lot of promise.”

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Blu-ray Disc™ Player Pricing Promotions

By Gary Reber

In previous blogs, I covered a bit on the down pricing of Blu-ray Disc™ players.

Apparently, Best Buy has further discounted its proprietary Insignia brand Profile 1.1 player to $199 (after a $30 in-store discount). If you don’t think that will be enough to entice DVD owners to upgrade to Blu-ray, Best Buy is also throwing a coupon book into the player’s box, worth $100 off select Blu-ray movies.

There is no doubt that the new low price and value-added Blu-ray movie coupon is designed to spark consumer interest in high-definition packaged media. And, no doubt, you will agree that this is one heck of an offer! While the player is not built to high-end standards, if it meets the minimum Blu-ray format standard, I think that people will be very satisfied. After all, the NS-BRDVD is equipped with a built-in SD card slot and support for Dolby® Digital Plus, and lossless DTS®-HD Master Audio, and Dolby TrueHD, and will upconvert standard-definition DVDs to 1080p resolution.

Prior to the Best Buy price reduction, Target announced an Olevia-brand Profile 1.1 player for $229. This is Olevia’s first Blu-ray Disc player.

As previously noted, Sony has announced that the price of its BDP-S350 Blu-ray Disc player will be reduced by $100, to $299.

The new Memorex MVBD-2510 Profile 1.1 player is retailing for $278.

Circuit City is offering a Bonus View™ (Profile 1.1) BDP-1500 for $299, after an instant $100 discount.

Samsung’s BDP-1500 is selling for $298 at Ken Crane’s Big Screen Headquarters, and Sony’s BDP-S300 is $287 at Video & Audio Center. Both retailers are based in Southern California.

Amazon is offering the Sony BDP-S300 for $229 new and previously owned for $199.

Industry observers have long considered a sub-$200 price point key to creating mainstream consumer demand for Blu-ray. And with the Best Buy move, the race is now on to below-$200 pricing with rebates and free Blu-ray Discs thrown in.

With the focus on expanded Blu-ray Disc players sales, it was only a matter of time until Netflix, the online DVD rental pioneer, would set its sights on renting Blu-ray Discs to its nearly 9 million subscibers.

Netflix said it expects about 500,000 of its nearly 8.7 million subscribers to become Blu-ray Disc subscribers by the end of the year, even with an announced $1 monthly subscription surcharge. Certainly, the combination of an inexpensive Blu-ray Disc player and low-cost Netflix rentals is a winner. Of course, if the studios really want the market to explode, they should significantly drop their sell-through Blu-ray title pricing.

Gary Reber
Editor-In-Chief & Publisher
Widescreen Review

[fighthefutureofhd]

Originally Posted by Anthony P

http://www.theapplemuseum.com/index.php?id=43

but that was just for the mac users right? windows based ipods didn't come out until 2003 and even then it was forced onto apple by court order if i have my history correct.

[JadedRaverLA]

Rather than just calling the analysts idiots for predicting massive future success for digital downloads at the cost of Blu-ray, I'll give my take on how they're misreading the market.

Everyone betting on downloads is betting on convenience trumping quality in the marketplace. There is sound logic to support that bet. Laserdisc never sold as well as VHS despite being better quality, SA-CD and DVD-A never took off against CD, etc. Both CD and VHS were more convenient formats than their higher quality competition at that time. LDs were large and unweildy and you couldn't really take SA-CDs and DVD-As with you... in the car, at the gym, etc. So, put aside the quality argument for the moment, and look at it only from a convenience perspective.

Where the Blu-ray doomsayers go very wrong with their logic is assuming that what makes an audio format convenient is the same as what makes a video format convenient. Music needs to be able to be used everywhere... a successful format has to work at home and on the go. Given the average song length of less than 3:30, its also more convenient to have as much music as possible on hand to allow playlists, randomization, etc. That's why when downloadable music came along, it took off very quickly. Though the quality wasn't up to par with even CDs, the convenience factor was definitely there, in terms of what people want to be able to do with music.

Convenience in a video format is a completely different beast, though. Most people atren't watching movies while driving or working out. It's not only acceptable to be tied to their televisions, its far preferable to most than watching movies on a 4" screen on the go, or on a 13"-19" PC or laptop monitor that most people have. Can you connect a PC to an HDTV? Sure. Is that the setup most non-technophiles are going to have? Not a chance.

Convenience in a movie format is being able to watch a movie you own with minimal delay in your home, and the ability to take that movie with you to play on a friend's setup. By those measures of convenience, both DVD and Blu-ray are light years ahead of any download services, which tie movie purchases to accounts and/or individual devices. Just like the most restrictive computer software licenses, the consumer has virtually no rights to anything other than a "right to use" license that is heavily tied down to specific devices. No loaning movies to friends, no grabbing a disc and taking it with you, etc. Now, the most technically inclined people may find such systems convenient, as they invest in whole-house servers, portable devices to playback movies in other people's homes, etc, but for the vast majority of people, investing in all that equipment and figuring out how to use it, defeats any convenience downloaded movies purport to have.

Downloads, like existing VOD systems, do present an attractive alternative (in terms of convenience) to renting Blu-rays and DVDs, where the primary convenience factors are ability to start watching whenever you want, and not having to go to a video store. Systems like the NetFlix system seem likely to make headway against in-store rentals in the future, but the convenience just doesn't translate when you try to use those services in an ownership model.

So, even if we accept that consumers value convenience more than quality (which may sadly be the case in many cases), no download system to date offers the convenience of DVD or Blu-ray for what most people actually do with owned movies. And since DVD and Blu-ray are essentially equal in terms of convenience (aside from DVD players being more ubiquitous at the moment), quality, as a secondary factor, really does come into play. If consumers can get considerably better quality without giving up convenience, it becomes much easier (as prices fall) to convince them to upgrade to the newer format.

[JadedRaverLA]

Originally Posted by fighthefutureofhd

but that was just for the mac users right? windows based ipods didn't come out until 2003 and even then it was forced onto apple by court order if i have my history correct.

iPods for Windows launched on July 17, 2002, but iTunes for Windows didn't launch until October, 2003. The earlier models shipped with MusicMatch Jukebox software. Maybe that's what you're thinking of. And there was definitely NOT a court order than forced Apple to do so... just good business sense as the first-gen iPods were already being used with PCs extensively..

There were and still are many lawsuits regarding the iPod, and especially its forced ties to iTunes, but no rulings or court orders on what you suggested.

[haushausman]

I feel like Bill Murray in Groundhog Day...

Blu-ray is doomed!!!! AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Blu-ray will be fine... same reason alcohal sales have been increasing during this recession.

Theaters on the other hand may take a huge hit.

[fighthefutureofhd]

Originally Posted by JadedRaverLA

iPods for Windows launched on July 17, 2002, but iTunes for Windows didn't launch until October, 2003. The earlier models shipped with MusicMatch Jukebox software. Maybe that's what you're thinking of. And there was definitely NOT a court order than forced Apple to do so... just good business sense as the first-gen iPods were already being used with PCs extensively..

There were and still are many lawsuits regarding the iPod, and especially its forced ties to iTunes, but no rulings or court orders on what you suggested.

thanks for that. i think i know what i was thinking about. i believe windows was forced to use ipods for windows. then again i could be wrong on that as well.

[Bobby Henderson]

Originally Posted by JadedRaverLA

Rather than just calling the analysts idiots for predicting massive future success for digital downloads at the cost of Blu-ray, I'll give my take on how they're misreading the market.

In certain respects I'm more cynical. I contend some of the folks down on BD aren't idiots, they just have ulterior, money making motives with a different form of movie delivery.

Originally Posted by JadedRaverLA

Everyone betting on downloads is betting on convenience trumping quality in the marketplace. There is sound logic to support that bet. Laserdisc never sold as well as VHS despite being better quality, SA-CD and DVD-A never took off against CD, etc.

Those formats failed for more critical reasons. Laserdisc never took off because very few video stores ever offered them for rent (and the few that did had very paltry selections). The selection of music available for DVD-A and SACD sucked compared to what you could buy on ordinary CD. Those issues outweighed the quality angle for many people. Disc and side changes with LD added inconvenience and interruption to the movie watching experience.

Those issues, among others, are why I think it's crazy to draw comparisons between Blu-ray and formats like Laserdisc, SACD and DVD-A when it comes to attempting to pronounce the death of Blu-ray.

[Anthony P]

but that was just for the mac users right? windows based ipods didn't come out until 2003 and even then it was forced onto apple by court order if i have my history correct.

I think at first yes, don't know when they added windows, but is it relevant?
I said that that used the coming out of itunes and ipod for the launch of DL music (just because everything else before it was irrelevant and except for generic MP3 which survived in the ipod they did not survive).

[TENSE]

this economy isn't affecting me in any way wats so ever!