Recession effect on Blu-ray

[turboedguy]

Originally Posted by stockstar1138

Holy sh1t, I just opened a fortune cookie this is what it said, "Don't worry about the stock market. Invest in family" lol.

This is gonna be how the Chinese take us over: Fortune Cookies. They are going to get us by making us not care about the market due to their cookies and then buy up all of our businesses and take over the USA.

Or the lead content in those cookies will get us.

[Jim L]

Originally Posted by stockstar1138

sorry, but you're wrong, 2000 is when the bubble burst.

I remember it very clearly. It was mid-April of 2000. It was President Clinton's last full year in office. The internet bubble had burst and both the DOW and NASDAQ lost a lot of their value. I believe the NASDAQ went from ~5000 to ~3300.

[actionhank]

No really, where do you fools get your educations? You need to ask for your money back...

It dates back to the founding of the SEC and FDIC etc, and has more to do with bank runs like we saw in the 30's (about 15,000 of the 40,000 banks went azz up) than saving fat cats. They were bailed out for YOUR protection, NOT the people who run it, or even the people who invested in it. THINK about it. Dropping from about $100 bucks a share to $2 a share is not helping ANYONE inside of the company.

What bailing them out does is avoid them from failing, and causing a run (ie a bank run where ALL your money in banks goes from something to you in a soup kitchen. Literally)

Bailing out the people who are losing homes (either by forcing the banks to hold their loan and not foreclose, or by some other means) WILL do two things for sure. Make getting a loan VERY hard for the next decade, and prolong the recession. In a worst case a Hillary/Obama/McCain type plan to bail out the housing could force a depression.

Want something to back that up? When Japan's housing crisis hit in the 80's they tried to save people from losing their homes. Their stock market went from about 40K to 14K where it still is today. A 25 year recession! Housing prices fell 45% and have not recovered. They did not start to recover at all until they kicked bad loans to the curb. That brought the market to 15K and then that Govt got booted by unhappy people, and the market went back down to 14K...

Helping people with bad loans is about the WORST thing that the Govt could do. Forcing a clearing of bad loans is the best thing. This being an election year, and emotion being more important than reason, what do you think will happen?

Honestly, I can give anyone who wants to know a quick lesson on what is going on and why... Links to relevant material and all...

NOTHING gets under my skin more than people who think stupid things about economics.

+1 Great post

Except that bear was at $160 a year ago, a lot more than $100.

Might I emphsize what you said: Forcing a clearing of bad loans is the best thing.


And to the other guy that said that the $2 sale sounded like a panic, you bet it was. Regulators, were scrambling to close the deal before the markets opened in Japan Monday cause they knew if not they would have a catastrophe. Of course this is all to the benefit of JP Morgan shareholders The building alone is worth $8.

I suggest you read the Wall St Journal piece on it today.

[Marquoz]

Originally Posted by mdm1699

It's relative. Bear-Sterns is not a traditional bank and the accounts were not insured by the govt. The price did not fall to $2 on the open market. This is troubling in some respects. They sold the firm for 1/3 of the value of their Manhattan headquarters, valued at $1 billion. What was the value of their tangible assets? Did they have cash on their books? We will never know now. They should have sold to the highest bidder even if those investors are international. The entire deal has panic written all over it. People who think that the govt can keep printing money and paying for all this greed are in for a rude awekening. All of us will pay.

I do believe that the govt needs to stay out of the mortgage mess and stop passing on the costs to people who made wiser decisions.

I agree, personal responsibility is key. If the person went to a reputible bank and was explained the risks of the mortgages they took out, then yes, they are ultimately responsible, and as sad as it is losing a home, that is the RISK they took. Of course that is if the risks of the mortgage were explained and not glossed over in a rush to make a quick buck.

One thing I've noticed though is lack of personal responsibility. Everybody expects to get bailed out for something that is their own fault. Make a stupid decision? Sue! Make a stupider decision? Beg the government to bail you out.

Yes, mortgage documents are massive and a pain in the ass to read, but do it, understand what you are signing. It is a 30-40 year COMMITMENT. I sat and read the entire mortgage package at my closing because I wanted to know all the fine details. What's even funnier is I'm the one who set the entire thing up, I knew exactly what I was getting, but I still wanted to make sure at closing there weren't any typos or other issues.

If the lender tried to pull a fast one as some people are crying, then why did they sign it? Any good seller will give you a couple more days if you explain the situation, and chances are good you can eke out a better deal from the mortgage company because they know you are on to them, and can make some good threats.

I just don't understand the entire mess.

[SGRSBSKIER]

Its irresponsible to say we are in a recession. A recession is two consecutive quarters of negative growth. Last quarter was +0.6259 it has been lower before and was +0.2023 in the fourth quarter of 2002.

All these reports about being in a recession actually hurts the economy. The majority of the people now believe we are in a recession which causes them to spend less money for fear not having enough in the future. All these reports have had a big impact on consumer confidence.
The latest survey by the National Association for Business Economics shows 55% of economists do not believe we are even headed for a recession. But you wouldn't know it based on the title of the article that mentions it Economists: U.S. headed toward recession somehow news agencies believe 45% saying we will go into recession outweigh the fact 55% believe we will not. (thats like when the HDDVD supporters claimed when they got 60:40 weeks they were starting to over take BD)

The Unemployment rate is at 4.8% when it was 5.0% in December.



Now the prices of things have gone up which can be attributed to many things like:

Minimum wage increase (cost employers more also makes them pay more Social Security and Medicare to to increased wages it will increase in July and next year as well)

Oil prices (makes it more to ship every product even groceries and your own gas price, however it could be much worse gas had been over $3 before for a while and that was when a Barrel of oil cost about $70 now a Barrel costs $110)

Biodiesel (Its causing prices to rise on our food products. Normally those crops would go just toward food now its also going to making fuel)



The housing/mortgage problem was people taking a gamble and they lost, however if you are looking to buy a house this is a great time as prices are lower then they have been for a while.

[Marcusarilius]

The Feds seem to think we are in trouble...

[mdm1699]

Originally Posted by Marquoz

I agree, personal responsibility is key. If the person went to a reputible bank and was explained the risks of the mortgages they took out, then yes, they are ultimately responsible, and as sad as it is losing a home, that is the RISK they took. Of course that is if the risks of the mortgage were explained and not glossed over in a rush to make a quick buck.

One thing I've noticed though is lack of personal responsibility. Everybody expects to get bailed out for something that is their own fault. Make a stupid decision? Sue! Make a stupider decision? Beg the government to bail you out.

Yes, mortgage documents are massive and a pain in the ass to read, but do it, understand what you are signing. It is a 30-40 year COMMITMENT. I sat and read the entire mortgage package at my closing because I wanted to know all the fine details. What's even funnier is I'm the one who set the entire thing up, I knew exactly what I was getting, but I still wanted to make sure at closing there weren't any typos or other issues.

If the lender tried to pull a fast one as some people are crying, then why did they sign it? Any good seller will give you a couple more days if you explain the situation, and chances are good you can eke out a better deal from the mortgage company because they know you are on to them, and can make some good threats.

I just don't understand the entire mess.

The only people that I feel sorry for in this mess are the elderly who were tricked out of their homes. Others were forced to sell because irrational pricing led to property taxes that they could no longer afford to pay. These are the people who need and deserve help.

[Ferris]

It's really amazing to me. I know the media, and eceonomists, and everyone else have a VERY specific definition of what a recession is, but to me, it's a bit more abstract.
Consumer confidence is the lowest I've ever seen it.
The housing market is in turmoil (I think half of the reason why, is the damned media needs something to sensationalize, the other half were the "flippers").
Base investment plans, 401(k) and 403(b), are losing money again, reminiscent of 2001-2002.
The Fed is printing money like it's going out of style.
Recently, the US Dollar has hit record lows against both the Euro and Canadian dollar.

These are things that basically effect me the most. Am I losing money I have? No. Am I losing potential earning? Absolutely.

What this has done for me, is made me take pause in my own spending habits, and modify them a bit. Blu-rays are way down on my list of things to buy, where I'll only buy the ones I will want to watch over and over again.

Wow.... sorry everyone. I guess I needed to vent!

[DocNovak]

Ok, here is my on the subject:

What I find funny about the whole situation is that we did not start having economic problems until the non-incumbent politicians via the media started telling us we were having financial problems so that they could get elected this year to "fix" the problem. As soon as the media started running with the story things started to get shaky, because people were afraid. It became a self fulfilling prophecy, that now the politicians are really going to have to do something about.

As far as the people loosing their homes because they were too ignorant or arrogant to read the 30 pages of info in their mortgage and got 100% financing with an interest only loan on a house they could afford and now they want ME to bail them out through the governments use of my tax dollars, they can go live under a bridge for being stupid.

For the people living in Chicago where housing prices are unreal move. I used to live in Chicago and NW suburbs, then I moved to San Antonio. Houses here that run $150k-$200k, would cost $400k-$450k easily in NW suburbs.

Personnally, I have not felt the "recession" (not even really a recession, let alone a depression, yet) My wife and I both have rather secure, well paying jobs. We are still in the middle class, but we are doing just fine. We recently both got promotions that came with substantial raises and have been spending money like crazy. We still save a good chunk every month for a rainy day, but have spent alot lately on home improvments, vacation, etc. etc.

For all the people "afraid" of losing their jobs I am surprised at all the now hiring signs I see everyday. I think there is more of a case of people looking to the government to bail them out then to get a second job, or if laid off get two jobs that pay less because the jobs are "beneath" them. When my sister lost her job (not because of the economy) that is what she did, went and got two crummy jobs so that she could make ends meet until she found something better.

Now for the feds cutting interest rates: STOP IT!!! While cutting rates may cause the market to jump for a day or two it also causes the value of the dollar to drop which means foreign products (Oil, gasoline, since we don't want to use our own because it might hurt a brid or two, electronics, cars, etc) cost more. As cost go up people buy LESS which causes us to drop further towards recession. So raise the rate back up to 4.5%-5% and then leave it the heck alone!

Ok, I am done ing now. please return to regular forum activities.

[PeteS]

Originally Posted by stockstar1138

huh? DVD was introduced in 1997, but really did not begin taking off til 1999-2002, which was all recession.

You are right though high blu-ray costs are blu-rays big problem right now.

Right, which is why I compared these times to when we were predicting DVD success back in 1996.

Interestingly, for me, with a large family it costs more to go to the movies than to buy a couple of Blu-ray discs. For me getting Blu-ray is saving money.

[hardcore_canadian]

Originally Posted by StilettoViper

Maybe you Brits will finally catch up to us in dental care now that you can afford it......

I hope you fall off a Building

[Blu Haze]

I dont have to worry about that. And i need to stop buying so many off ebay. Oh bidding is so fun.

[Herr Schmidt]

It wont bother me none.I buy all mine online at Amazon .com. and with prime makes it even sweeter :}

[Mxr5150]

Actually, I think one thing about this country will remain constant and that is the amount of money we use for discretionary spending. Entertainment is our top priority. I'll admit it's one of mine.

[JAGUAR1977]

This story pretty well sums up how I personally believe some people are trying to talk up recession to make a financial killing.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7305039.stm

I'm sure some lines of business will be heavily effected by recent events, but other than a very slight slowing in the housing market, amongst my family and friends, with regular jobs, you wouldn't know about the 'recession' if it wasn't on the TV 24/7.

In my building related business, we are far more busy than this time last year.

[mdm1699]

Originally Posted by JAGUAR1977

This story pretty well sums up how I personally believe some people are trying to talk up recession to make a financial killing.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7305039.stm

I'm sure some lines of business will be heavily effected by recent events, but other than a very slight slowing in the housing market, amongst my family and friends, with regular jobs, you wouldn't know about the 'recession' if it wasn't on the TV 24/7.

In my building related business, we are far more busy than this time last year.

The US is not Britain and vice-versa. We may be ruled by many of the same economic laws but the economic conditions at any given time may differ. Britain does not have a surplus of homes. Britain does not suffer from the exotic loans that are now taking their toll. Home values in Britain may or may not be inflated as they are here. Britain is not restricted by tight credit conditions. The US economy relies heavily on credit. Home equity is the single biggest source of individual wealth. We simply do not save as much as we should. Britain is so wonderful..................................

[PeteS]

Originally Posted by JAGUAR1977

This story pretty well sums up how I personally believe some people are trying to talk up recession to make a financial killing.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7305039.stm

Not sure about making a 'killing' from a recession, I think more the 'herd mentality' is at the heart of it.

[surfdude12]

personally, instead of my usual 3-4 blu's per month ($50-60), i just signed up for netflix ($18), so i still get to watch blu for less...

[actionhank]

Originally Posted by mdm1699

The US is not Britain and vice-versa. We may be ruled by many of the same economic laws but the economic conditions at any given time may differ. Britain does not have a surplus of homes. Britain does not suffer from the exotic loans that are now taking their toll. Home values in Britain may or may not be inflated as they are here. Britain is not restricted by tight credit conditions. The US economy relies heavily on credit. Home equity is the single biggest source of individual wealth. We simply do not save as much as we should. Britain is so wonderful..................................

No.

The UK is also suffering from falling home prices and and frozen credit markets. Why do you think Northern Rock had to be nationalized?

Add to that the fact that the average Brit has more credit card debt than the average American.

You just don't hear about it in the news because we're to busy talking about our problems.

But yes Britain is wonderful. London is a gorgeous city

[WickyWoo]

Politics....stop.....now