81:19 Nielsen/VideoScan Weekly Sales Numbers

[SpikesBluBlooded]

Originally Posted by york weir

no way, I think you're reading too much in to my posts.

What's on my mind. I was watching Wild Hogs on Blu last night and the PQ was amazing. The explosion at the biker bar was freakin' cool. I bought Die Hard: With a Vengeance from someone at work today on Blu and can't wait to check it out. I still haven't had a chance to check out my blu ray Spidy box set nor Die Hard: Live Free or Die Hard.

I think what the other poster is alluding to is that for a new poster, you're very interested in pointing out the negative of Blu-ray. And since you're a new member, a fair warning: this site has had it's fair share of trolls, coming onto the site claiming to be Blu-ray fans, only to spew a crap-load of FUD before eventually getting banned. After a while, you get pretty good at spotting it in its infancy, and that's why he's calling you out. Your posts are interestingly familiar...

[kolasi]

Originally Posted by Xcom_Cheetah

Its really a gr8 victory... i never expected to see this high ratio for Blu ray so early after the warner switch... so i was just wandering if this will stay here or it will slip back.. i expect to see the ratio for 75 - 80 to 25 to 20... till May and then it will remain above 80%... wot u people think.?

If the ratio remain this high then i m sure Universal and paramount r going to become blu a lot early...

well.... why would the ratio drop under 80%? its not like all of a sudden people will be like "hey lets start buying more duds now."

[york weir]

Originally Posted by SpikesBluBlooded

I think what the other poster is alluding to is that for a new poster, you're very interested in pointing out the negative of Blu-ray. And since you're a new member, a fair warning: this site has had it's fair share of trolls, coming onto the site claiming to be Blu-ray fans, only to spew a crap-load of FUD before eventually getting banned. After a while, you get pretty good at spotting it in its infancy, and that's why he's calling you out. Your posts are interestingly familiar...

I'm sorry I gave that impression. I looked through my posts and never saw a single response that was negative to blu-ray at all.

Again, I apologize.

[Fozziwig]

Originally Posted by darinp2

Just to mention it again, the First Alert could have had higher volumes in week 2 than week 1, but the YTD skew toward week 1 if the numbers used for that were the final for week 1 and the First Alert for week 2. Put another way, if next week is 74:26, I think the YTD could still go up to 75:25 even if the final numbers for this week stayed at 85:15. I don't know how big the differences in volumes are likely to be between First Alert and final numbers, though.

--Darin

One thing to keep in mind is that HMM truncate the true ratio instead of using normal rounding for the Blu-ray number.

For example this weeks YTD could actually be 74.8:25.2. However in HMM land Blu-ray gets 74 and HD DVD gets 26. This is what makes estimating volume a little more tricky than it was when we got the decimal place published.

[Papi4baby]

Originally Posted by york weir

I'm sorry I gave that impression. I looked through my posts and never saw a single response that was negative to blu-ray at all.

Again, I apologize.

Well im glad you didn't get offended, just trying to make sure your not here to ruin our enjoyment. This is Blu-ray.com and not HDM.com. With that welcome to the site and enjoy your stay.

[Lee Christie]

I can't wait until we get a 91:9 week. (i.e. HDUD's percentage is single-digit) that'll be cool. Anyone wanna make predictions of when HDUD drops to single figures?

[docjan_uk]

Prediction or guess? Too many unknown unknowns as old Donald would say.

[Lee Christie]

Originally Posted by docjan_uk

Prediction or guess? Too many unknown unknowns as old Donald would say.

Too many known knowns makes guessing unfun.

[Papi4baby]

Originally Posted by Lee Christie

Too many known knowns makes guessing unfun.

Well for sure at least the second or third week of June

[SGRSBSKIER]

Originally Posted by Lee Christie

I can't wait until we get a 91:9 week. (i.e. HDUD's percentage is single-digit) that'll be cool. Anyone wanna make predictions of when HDUD drops to single figures?

That may not happen for a while a 50k for HDDVD BD would need 450k, a 30k week would need 300k. The earliest I think that would happen would be March 18 week when I am Legend and Enchanted is released with I robot Hitman and ID4 the week before but HDDVD has Bee Movie 3/11 and Beowulf 2 weeks before that.

[Neo65]

Originally Posted by kolasi

well.... why would the ratio drop under 80%? its not like all of a sudden people will be like "hey lets start buying more duds now."

Some of that is because returns move numbers negatively, but it would be difficult for HD DVD to break out of the 20s and even 30s unless some major red title gets released.

[phloyd]

Originally Posted by SGRSBSKIER

That may not happen for a while a 50k for HDDVD BD would need 450k, a 30k week would need 300k. The earliest I think that would happen would be March 18 week when I am Legend and Enchanted is released with I robot Hitman and ID4 the week before but HDDVD has Bee Movie 3/11 and Beowulf 2 weeks before that.

Indeed you have to increase your sales more for each market share point above 50% - it gets increasingly difficult.

For example to go from 98 % to 99% you have to increase sales by over 100%. From 50 to 51% you only need to increase sales by ~4%.

For this reason 85% is quite a significant mark.

[TheRealBob]

Originally Posted by phloyd

Indeed you have to increase your sales more for each market share point above 50% - it gets increasingly difficult.

For example to go from 98 % to 99% you have to increase sales by over 100%. From 50 to 51% you only need to increase sales by ~4%.

For this reason 85% is quite a significant mark.

This is where I disagree, because while it seems like hard work from our Blu perspective, it's pretty easy work from the other side. In fact, they don't really have to do any work at all to cause their sales to start plummeting.

To use your example, from 98% to 99% will require almost a doubling of Blu sales (hard)...or a halving of HD DVD sales (pretty easy now that it smells of death).

[BillCable]

Originally Posted by kolasi

well.... why would the ratio drop under 80%? its not like all of a sudden people will be like "hey lets start buying more duds now."

Returns count against the numbers. So if there were a ton of returns after the Warner announcement, that may have skewed down DUD's numbers by several points. If there aren't as many returns next week, DUD could get up into the 20s, in theory.

[bluflu]

Blu used a steel toe on Toshiba's upconverting format this week.

[Slapper]

Originally Posted by BillCable

Returns count against the numbers. So if there were a ton of returns after the Warner announcement, that may have skewed down DUD's numbers by several points. If there aren't as many returns next week, DUD could get up into the 20s, in theory.

According to HD DVD math, that would be a major win and we will have to suffer reading nonsense like "HD DVD is making a comeback!" for the next week.

[Caligula]

Originally Posted by Mastrodisastro

Amazing
6 Warner Movies and NO HD-DVD

from best buy bogo.. i brought all warners movies on sale at bb. glad see my money invested well

[frenchglen]

Nice to see 85%. Down with HD-DVD! I don't even want to know about it! Go into the bushes, and die.

[actionhank]

Soon we'll get a 100% to -5% week which means HD-DVD returns of 5%!

[TheRealBob]

Originally Posted by actionhank

Soon we'll get a 100% to -5% week which means HD-DVD returns of 5%!

It would be funny to see how they would handle that. I think mathematically it would have to be 105% to -5% so it summed to 100.