Physical & Digital EST: The Future of Home Video Discussion Thread

[octagon]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

Different altogether. Music files are nowhere near the size of video. There is a need to keep bit rates very low.

That's a difference of degree, not of kind.

We used to measure data in k, then in megs, then in gigs and we're on the verge of measuring it in...what will we call it...ts? Files that are big today will be small tomorrow. That's just the natural progression of things.

And again, the scale of the practical obstacle is definitely different. But the obstacles themselves are not.

Can I say for certain that tech improvements will allow the easy transmission of BD sized chunks of data to large segments of various populations in the relatively near future?

No but if I were a betting man I'd put serious money behind that proposition.

[avs commenter]

HD streaming wasn't that great 6-7 years ago. Now we have 4K HDR streaming that is nearly as good as UHD disc. 5 years from now, it will be as good or better than disc.

[NightMovie901]

Originally Posted by Forestt

But vinyl is still around and selling well, at least good enough and made a somewhat comeback the last few years. Even younger generations prefer them over cd's. Why? It's the ultimate physical music format for music collectors.

They are? I haven't seen a new record in decades. Outside of nostalgia (and Neil Young) I just don't see the purpose anymore.

Originally Posted by Forestt

I think we also get one 'ultimate' physical video format in the end for film collectors. It might be the 4k format be if so we can stil play blu rays on those players. 8k is probably one step too much.

The manufacturers will never agree on that standard so there will have to be a format war first. By the time that is resolved there will be something new in the pipeline. LOL

[alchav21]

Originally Posted by alchav21

I think you made some good points, and like I keep telling these guys it's all Digital now and the only difference is Bitrate. Make everything equal, and the Quality will follow. I think the direction we are going are Networks and Servers, and you can put these Servers anywhere to hold your Movie and Show Collection with all the Content in the World!

Originally Posted by NightMovie901

Bandwidth is definitely a huge factor. The fatter the pipe coming into your house the more that is possible. Imagine when 10 Gig fiber comes to your door !!!

Bandwidth is a big factor, but like you said it keeps going up. You said you have no problem, and I don't either my Provider is FTTH with up to a Gig now. They are in a position to upgrade to 10 Gigs when the time comes. Technology doesn't wait, and you can't get complacent, because you will get left behind!

[Forestt]

Originally Posted by NightMovie901

They are? I haven't seen a new record in decades. Outside of nostalgia (and Neil Young) I just don't see the purpose anymore.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vinyl_revival
https://www.digitalmusicnews.com/201...t-growth-2018/

and more articles to find when googling, if interested.

[Forestt]

Originally Posted by NightMovie901

The manufacturers will never agree on that standard so there will have to be a format war first. By the time that is resolved there will be something new in the pipeline. LOL

It's not like there is a war going on now after the blu ray vs. hd dvd 'battle'. Disc is likely to stay for a long time. A new smaller format might not be fun to collect and with a discplayer you can play all older discformats.

[PenguinInfinity]

Originally Posted by alchav21

Bandwidth is a big factor, but like you said it keeps going up. You said you have no problem, and I don't either my Provider is FTTH with up to a Gig now. They are in a position to upgrade to 10 Gigs when the time comes. Technology doesn't wait, and you can't get complacent, because you will get left behind!

Bandwidth is a much bigger problem for the distributors than the customers. It doesn't matter how fast of internet connection you have at your house if Netflix and Vudu have low bitrate streams. They have to pay for bandwidth too and there is no reason for them to pay millions of dollars to upgrade it when the vast majority of their customers are happy with what they are providing now.

Since you continue to buy streaming movies and you continue to talk about how amazing they are you are clearly satisfied with the bitrates they are providing now. Increasing their bitrates would be an extra expense but provide them with no extra income. Why would they do that?

[NightMovie901]

Originally Posted by Forestt

It's not like there is a war going on now after the blu ray vs. hd dvd 'battle'. Disc is likely to stay for a long time. A new smaller format might not be fun to collect and with a discplayer you can play all older discformats.

There is always going to be a format war. As cheap as USB thumb drives are now I could honestly see some form of that (memory chip vs disc) taking over for discs.

128GB for 4K Movies -USB 3.x and MicroSD cards are around $20 right now but when those hit $2 its the same price a 4K disc probably costs to stamp - so doable at some point ... MAYBE

MicroSD cards as movie distribution platform in the near future???

[PenguinInfinity]

Originally Posted by NightMovie901

There is always going to be a format war. As cheap as USB thumb drives are now I could honestly see some form of that (memory chip vs disc) taking over for discs.

128GB for 4K Movies -USB 3.x and MicroSD cards are around $20 right now but when those hit $2 its the same price a 4K disc probably costs to stamp - so doable at some point ... MAYBE

MicroSD cards as movie distribution platform in the near future???

Optical discs have been the cheapest form of physical media since the 80s and it's highly unlikely that will ever change. By the time that 128GB SD cards are $2 each (if that ever happens) there will likely be new disc formats that can hold over a terabyte for the same price.

Additionally SD cards have to be loaded with content, that's extra time and money for the manufacturers. A pressed disc can be made in seconds. It's unlikely that another physical format will ever replace discs and if it does it will be one that hasn't even been thought of yet. There is no chance that SD cards will ever replace discs.

[NightMovie901]

Originally Posted by PenguinInfinity

There is no chance that SD cards will ever replace discs.

OK.

https://medium.freecodecamp.org/wors...s-c18654211375

[octagon]

[PenguinInfinity]

Originally Posted by NightMovie901

OK.

https://medium.freecodecamp.org/wors...s-c18654211375

This entire thread is full of tons of predictions on both sides that could end up on a list like that.

[Forestt]

Originally Posted by NightMovie901

MicroSD cards as movie distribution platform in the near future???

No, I don't think so

- you don't have a huge back catalogue, like you have with optical discs (dvd/blu-ray etc.) and can play on the latest optical discplayer.
- these days the mass market or general public is happy with a Netflix subscription (unfortunately) so the market to aim for with a new technology/format is probably too small
- Nintendo Switch is using 32GB cartridges and have delayed 64GB versions because of productiondifficulties. Not sure if there is a huge difference between video or gamedata and pressing them on cartridges. Pressing discs is a lot easier and cheaper obviously.

[NightMovie901]

Originally Posted by PenguinInfinity

This entire thread is full of tons of predictions on both sides that could end up on a list like that.

Yes, my point is never say never.

Predicting the future is hard.

[PenguinInfinity]

Originally Posted by NightMovie901

Yes, my point is never say never.

Predicting the future is hard.

I don't want to end every sentence with a question mark or a maybe like you did:

Originally Posted by NightMovie901

128GB for 4K Movies -USB 3.x and MicroSD cards are around $20 right now but when those hit $2 its the same price a 4K disc probably costs to stamp - so doable at some point ... MAYBE

MicroSD cards as movie distribution platform in the near future???

[NightMovie901]

Originally Posted by Forestt

No, I don't think so

- you don't have a huge back catalogue, like you have with optical discs (dvd/blu-ray etc.) and can play on the latest optical discplayer.
- these days the mass market or general public is happy with a Netflix subscription (unfortunately) so the market to aim for with a new technology/format is probably too small
- Nintendo Switch is using 32GB cartridges and have delayed 64GB versions because of productiondifficulties. Not sure if there is a huge difference between video or gamedata and pressing them on cartridges. Pressing discs is a lot easier and cheaper obviously.

I wouldn't argue that discs have been around a very long time. I mean just the number of AOL discs out there in the world ... I'm kidding.

They will be hard to get rid on entirely for sure but who knows. There has always been a "thing" that has been around for a very long time that market disruption comes along and obsoletes.

Think about developing film from your camera. Anyone doing that anymore?

[NightMovie901]

Originally Posted by PenguinInfinity

This post shows why supporting digital is an absolutely horrible idea. History is full of plenty of examples of something being standard and common for a long time and then being replaced or abandoned.

Discs have been around for a long time and they may not be supported in the future, but even if that happens our discs will still work. If the time comes when digital purchases aren't supported anymore then everyone's digital collections will be lost.

Certainly a reasonable argument. VHS tapes are still playable but are they worth having at this point?

Think about this too: if the format were to change and all your movies needed to be “converted” which method would make that the easiest?

[PenguinInfinity]

Originally Posted by NightMovie901

Certainly a reasonable argument. VHS tapes are still playable but are they worth having at this point?

If there are titles that didn't make it to later formats they are absolutely worth having. That isn't true with VHS for me, but I expect I will continue watching my DVDs for the rest of my life. There are hundreds of great titles that will likely never be available on a format better than DVD.

Originally Posted by NightMovie901

Think about this too: if the format were to change and all your movies needed to be “converted” which method would make that the easiest?

None of my movies ever need to be converted. Additionally I don't think the vast majority of the movies and TV shows in my collection can ever look or sound much better than the Blu-ray versions I already have. Therefore I would never even want a new version.

[Wendell R. Breland]

Remember the postings folks made here and elsewhere about how there were only 2 new UHD Blu-ray players that were announced at CES 2019? Did some checking and there were exactly zero, none, nada, zilch new streaming boxes from Amazon, Apple, Google, NVIDIA Shield and Roku announced for 2019.

Sad to see the Amazon Fire TV 4K pendant and the Google Chromecast Audio discontinued. I have 2 of the CCA devices and tried to buy a third one but they sold out quickly.

[avs commenter]

Originally Posted by Wendell R. Breland

Remember the postings folks made here and elsewhere about how there were only 2 new UHD Blu-ray players that were announced at CES 2019? Did some checking and there were exactly zero, none, nada, zilch new streaming boxes from Amazon, Apple, Google, NVIDIA Shield and Roku announced for 2019.

Sad to see the Amazon Fire TV 4K pendant and the Google Chromecast Audio discontinued. I have 2 of the CCA devices and tried to buy a third one but they sold out quickly.

Apple has their own press events so they would not announce at CES. They typically refresh the ATV every couple years....
And Amazon just released a new firestick in Oct '18