Physical & Digital EST: The Future of Home Video Discussion Thread

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by The_Donster

See, here lies the real problem. People read something online, latch onto something and take it as fact. There’s nothing new here that hasn’t already been said before. They’re called options for a reason. You can subscribe to them or not. The choice is yours.

Ok, let me ask you this. Imagine in 10 years, data points to many many more millions watching highlights of shows rather than full long form. Is it more likely that content would remain longform or go the short form route to save millions from wasted (unwatched content)?

Do you see where my thoughts are going with this?

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

I think depending on where they go with this, it’s VERY important.

It is only important if you make it so. I certainly would not pay to watch heavily condensed versions of TV shows or movies on ANY device. Again, there is nothing to suggest that this mere possibility would in any way hurt our ability to watch the full versions.

I always refused to buy those condensed books that Readers Digest once offered for the same reason. I wonder if they still do that? Readers Digest had ZERO impact on people's desire to own the full unedited novel and I think the same will hold true with movies and TV shows.

Paying more to get less doesn't fly with me and I suspect that many people feel similarly.

[Vilya]

Serving the entire market makes the most sense; abandoning all, or even just some, of the others to address just one of them would be senseless.

[RefractiveIndex]

Netflix stock plummets after massive subscriber miss

And so it begins.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by RefractiveIndex

Netflix stock plummets after massive subscriber miss

And so it begins.

Netflix predicted they would add 5 million new subscribers in Q2, but only added 2.7 million. They then predict that they will add 7 million subscribers in Q3.

""We don't believe competition was a factor since there wasn't a material change in the competitive landscape during Q2."

So, no increased competition in Q2 and they still miss their projections by a country mile. Netflix then makes an even bigger prediction for Q3. Yes, I realize that they are counting on Stranger Things to reach those numbers and they may well do so, but how many of those new subscribers will they keep after they have viewed it? It's only an 8 hour season.

Gotta love an optimist, tho.

I'd love to see their Q4 projections which is when Disney+ will launch.

The Nielsen numbers for Stranger Things Season three are impressive:

""Stranger Things," which debuted its third season on the Fourth of July holiday weekend, attracted 26.4 million unique viewers in the first four days of its release in the US, according to Nielsen data. It was "the most watched Netflix original series we've ever analyzed," according to the viewership data company.

I have to ask, though, how can 26.4 million of anything be "unique?" I think I am more unique than any of them as I still have not watched any of season 3.

[RefractiveIndex]

Originally Posted by Vilya

Netflix predicted they would add 5 million new subscribers in Q2, but only added 2.7 million. So, what do they do? They predict that they will add 7 million subscribers in Q3.

""We don't believe competition was a factor since there wasn't a material change in the competitive landscape during Q2."

So, no increased competition in Q2 and they still miss their projections by a country mile. Netflix then makes an even bigger prediction for Q3!

Gotta love an optimist, tho.

I'd love to see their Q4 projections which is when Disney+ will launch.

I've been saying for a while now the Netflix model is unsustainable. It's the consumer dream of endless cheap content, but unfortunately, it's built on a mountain of debt and an insatiable hunger for endless subscriber growth.

It's only a matter of time before Netflix will have to start slashing the amount of content it produces and licenses from other studios while also aggressively increasing subscription fees. That will further lead to subscriber loss and you can see where this is going....

As for Disney+ and other services, I don't really see how that will be sustainable for the long-term either. No doubt it will be incredibly popular, but so is Netflix. Disney isn't new to the streaming business and they lost a billion on it last year. My theory is that Disney+ is more about putting Netflix back in its box to maintain the status quo of the established studios more than anything.

[Wendell R. Breland]

Originally Posted by Vilya

I think I am more unique than any of them as I still have not watched any of season 3.

Just like most other things of growth Netflix is reaching saturation in the US. It will be interesting to see what they do in the future.

Stranger Things did not do it for us, dumped after 3 episodes of S1.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by RefractiveIndex

As for Disney+ and other services, I don't really see how that will be sustainable for the long-term either. No doubt it will be incredibly popular, but so is Netflix. Disney isn't new to the streaming business and they lost a billion on it last year. My theory is that Disney+ is more about putting Netflix back in its box to maintain the status quo of the established studios more than anything.

One key difference is that Disney has many billions and they can easily afford to lose one if it serves their purpose. Disney is comfortably in the black financially while Netflix is wading ever deeper into the Red Ink Sea. Disney's streaming service launch price of $6.99 per month greatly undercuts Netflix, too, and Disney can readily afford to keep undercutting Netflix for a very long time if they so wish. Netflix is likely to bleed even more red ink in the future.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by Wendell R. Breland

Just like most other things of growth Netflix is reaching saturation in the US. It will be interesting to see what they do in the future.

Stranger Things did not do it for us, dumped after 3 episodes of S1.

I really liked the first two seasons and I am looking forward to watching all of season three and likely in one session.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by RefractiveIndex

I've been saying for a while now the Netflix model is unsustainable. It's the consumer dream of endless cheap content, but unfortunately, it's built on a mountain of debt and an insatiable hunger for endless subscriber growth.

It's only a matter of time before Netflix will have to start slashing the amount of content it produces and licenses from other studios while also aggressively increasing subscription fees. That will further lead to subscriber loss and you can see where this is going....

As for Disney+ and other services, I don't really see how that will be sustainable for the long-term either. No doubt it will be incredibly popular, but so is Netflix. Disney isn't new to the streaming business and they lost a billion on it last year. My theory is that Disney+ is more about putting Netflix back in its box to maintain the status quo of the established studios more than anything.

They will just go the ad route. Sensible pre-roll ads that are not too invasive. Netflix are not going back in the box. They can get away with ads and still charge a subscription price. They can and will go this route if things get too desperate. Ads would bring 1 billion in extra income. Regardless of what Hastings says, they may have no choice but to go this route in 4-5 years.

[Vilya]

I do wonder how long Netflix can continue to operate as they are now with their debt increasing every bit as much as their number of subscribers. When does the bloodletting stop and the red ink turn black?

I do not think that Netflix is in any danger of collapsing; their brand recognition alone is very valuable, but carrying an ever increasing debt burden makes them an easier target for a takeover, hostile or otherwise. I would not be surprised if some profitable company with ample cash reserves did not just buy them outright someday.

[octagon]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

Does it not concern you that execs think a appealing way to market content to subscribers is to edit it into 20 minute highlight reels effectively?

Not particularly, no. You always look at these things and black-and-white, zero-sum terms where a viewer watching the 20 minute highlight reel must be a viewer that would have otherwise watched the entire episode and that's not necessarily the case.

For as long as there have been TV series there have been different kinds of viewers. People who can't miss a single minute of a single episode, people who catch episodes here and there, people who focus intently on every second of an episode, people who talk on the phone or do other things while watching...TV has never been one-size fits all.

Could these highlight episodes take viewers away from the full-length episodes? Maybe. But it seems more likely that they would result in more total eyeballs on the show, not fewer.

Somebody who would watch the highlight reel to catch up on GoT episodes they missed probably aren't people who would have gone out of their way to catch on those entire episodes anyway.

If anything, these highlight reels could even draw more eyeballs to the full episodes.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by octagon

If anything, these highlight reels could even draw more eyeballs to the full episodes.

Like an extended trailer, resulting in even greater interest in the full length show.

[The_Donster]

Originally Posted by RefractiveIndex

Netflix stock plummets after massive subscriber miss

And so it begins.

[The_Donster]

To ask your earlier question Steedeel. No, I’m not concerned and I feel like this has been asked and answered. Like I said earlier, people are just grasping at straws on both sides of the arguments at this point. Digital isn’t going anywhere and neither is physical. They will just evolve.

[Vilya]

^Evolve into what, though?

Digital:



Physical:

[The_Donster]

Digital vs Physical

Nah, it is more like this clever boy

[Gretiem]

https://beta.washingtonpost.com/opin...outputType=amp

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by Gretiem

https://beta.washingtonpost.com/opin...outputType=amp

Thanks, but that link was already posted here yesterday.

https://forum.blu-ray.com/showpost.p...ostcount=16317

[The_Donster]

Listen, if you are going to post links, can you at least participate in the discussion? Because all you are doing is crop dusting right now and bringing nothing to it.