81:19 Nielsen/VideoScan Weekly Sales Numbers

[CAB]

Originally Posted by jason_grumpy

No surprise but a damn shame for the Dave Concert. The Dave Concert is top notch AQ and PQ. It's what HD is all about.

I'm watching/listening to it now. My standalone is decoding it and pumping out 24bit/96Khz. This is my first ever purchase of a concert outside CD. All I can say is I want BD music in my house, in my car, in my iPod, in a house, with a mouse. . . I pray that BD wins this format police-action so we can get BD+ on music.

[Terjyn]

Originally Posted by Slapper

Heroes is is simply out of most people's price range so, it too did not sell big numbers.

This statement is ludicrous.

If you can not afford a 60$ box set you can not afford HD...so why would you have bothered to buy either player?

[NutsAboutPS3]

Originally Posted by Terjyn

If you can not afford a 60$ box set you can not afford HD...so why would you have bothered to buy either player?

The attach rate for HD DVD is just 7 titles per player. So I would say $60 IS a lot of money compared to the average total spend on HD DVD titles.

[Terjyn]

Attach rate has very little to do with actual cost of the title.

Otherwise, Planet Earth would not be the second highest attach rate title on the HD-DVD side.

[JAG1977]

Originally Posted by Slapper

I predict HD-DVD winning that week if the BDA does not move/announce a MAJOR title to go up against it. Transformers will sell big numbers, surpassing 300 numbers easily considering how fast they managed to get this to HD-DVD. The movie will still be fresh in people's minds when they see it sitting on the shelves. It will remain a VERY big title throughout the rest of the year and this movie WILL sell HD-DVD players (at least at the retailers that actually carry players).

This is pure speculation, but all of these delays we keep seeing occuring with various Blu-ray titles recently could be a direct result of a decision to "move up" the release date of one of the biggie Blu-ray titles coming later in the month, like Spider-Man 3, or to replicate a title that has not been officially announced on Blu-ray.

Sony may have tinkered with some replication scheduling in order to manufacture more of a certain massive release title, like Spider-Man 3 (or some other big-name title), in order to get it to retail shelves to battle it out with Transformers on October 16th. Although this is highly unlikey, considering the advertising campaign for Spidey 3 was already in place before Transformers was even announced on HD-DVD, if I was in the BDA I would push for SOMETHING BIG to go up directly against Transformers or HD-DVD is going to own that week and we will NEVER hear the end of it and it WILL look like HD-DVD is thriving and that Blu-ray is losing ground.

If I was the BDA I wouldn't lose sleep over a single week.

It'll come and go and Blu-ray will utterly dominate Q4.

[The Shrike]

Originally Posted by LynxFX

That's pretty much what I'm thinking Slapper. Just be prepared for the enslaught of HD DVD cheerleading when they finally win a week. Sad that it cost HD DVD $150m for it. Had that not gone through we would be looking at another record breaking week for BD.

Here's how I'm looking at Transformers week: The last numbers I saw, 300 on BD has moved 135k units, right? In June, HD DVD said that they had sold 150k players. In order to get numbers as high as 300, just about every single HD DVD player owner would have to purchase a copy of Transformers. I don't think that's going to happen. Thoughts?

[Maximus]

Originally Posted by JAG1977

If I was the BDA I wouldn't lose sleep over a single week.

It'll come and go and Blu-ray will utterly dominate Q4.

That is the kind of thinking that got them into this situation in the first place. Luckily they are out of this mode now.

[scott1256ca]

If you can not afford a 60$ box set you can not afford HD...so why would you have bothered to buy either player?

No matter how you slice it, the more you charge for a product, the fewer you will sell, perhaps with the exception of a rare few types of items with a snob factor. Also $60 is not what most people will see in a B&M.

Despite how popular the TV show is, obviously the demand for it on HD DVD just isn't as high as Universal wanted it to be, in part probably because it has also been getting rerun in the last month or so, so people probably aren't feeling the need to own it.

[kowhite]

Originally Posted by The Shrike

Here's how I'm looking at Transformers week: The last numbers I saw, 300 on BD has moved 135k units, right? In June, HD DVD said that they had sold 150k players. In order to get numbers as high as 300, just about every single HD DVD player owner would have to purchase a copy of Transformers. I don't think that's going to happen. Thoughts?

I think you're dealing with a number more in the range of 300-400k, with standalones and 360 add-ons thrown in. So you're more dealing with a very high attach ratio, but not that high.

[TruBlu2]

Originally Posted by HDTV1080P

Gary good quote. Other websites are reporting the Disney info also.
Disney is smart and plans on only releasing in BLU-RAY since they do not want to feed the format war. One HDTV format means wide consumer acceptance and more money for the studios.
Transcript: Disney CEO Iger Talks Up Blu-ray in Analyst Call
QUOTE
“The best thing that could happen is for the format war to end, which will be very pro-consumer, particularly as hardware comes down.”

http://www.highdefdigest.com/news/show/Bob_Iger/Disney/Transcript:_Disney_CEO_Iger_Talks_Up_Blu-ray_in_Analyst_Call/622

Well put, do not feed the format war. I completely agree this is the best course of action.

[LynxFX]

Originally Posted by The Shrike

Here's how I'm looking at Transformers week: The last numbers I saw, 300 on BD has moved 135k units, right? In June, HD DVD said that they had sold 150k players. In order to get numbers as high as 300, just about every single HD DVD player owner would have to purchase a copy of Transformers. I don't think that's going to happen. Thoughts?

You are doing the same as the HD DVD forum in relation to the PS3, ignoring the console players. There are probably ~200k 360 addons now? I believe total there are close to 500k HD DVD players out in the wild now going by the latest numbers.

I easily see Transformers selling more than 300 on HD DVD. Like Slappy said, probably a 75k first week, maybe even coming close to 100k. There aren't any titles coming out on BD prior to Oct 16th that can counter that. There's a couple solid catalog titles but they will probably be in the 25k-30k range. The big hitters don't come until 2 weeks later with Spiderman 3 coupled with 1 & 2. That is 3 big hitters that could probably each do Transformers type numbers.

[The Shrike]

Originally Posted by kowhite

I think you're dealing with a number more in the range of 300-400k, with standalones and 360 add-ons thrown in. So you're more dealing with a very high attach ratio, but not that high.

Hm. Damn numbers. Can't keep track of them all. Don't know why I bother.

[The Shrike]

Originally Posted by LynxFX

You are doing the same as the HD DVD forum in relation to the PS3, ignoring the console players.

You're right, the number I was looking at didn't include those. Seriously. I just need to stop.

[LynxFX]

Originally Posted by The Shrike

You're right, the number I was looking at didn't include those. Seriously. I just need to stop.

No problem. I try not to think of them as players since they can't even do any next gen audio, but unfortunately people do still buy software for them.

[The Shrike]

Originally Posted by LynxFX

No problem. I try not to think of them as players since they can't even do any next gen audio, but unfortunately people do still buy software for them.

Shouldn't your avatar be a Lynx clutching the HD DVD logo?

[LynxFX]

Originally Posted by The Shrike

Shouldn't your avatar be a Lynx clutching the HD DVD logo?

Heh, in a perfect world. I just saw this image once and thought it was perfect.

[Slapper]

Originally Posted by Terjyn

This statement is ludicrous.

If you can not afford a 60$ box set you can not afford HD...so why would you have bothered to buy either player?

If you're in Best Buy and you see Transformers on HD-DVD selling for $29.99, and the Heroes boxed set on HD-DVD for $99.99 which is more likely to sell?

These high-priced TV boxed sets typically do not sell big numbers because they do not fall into the price range that consumers are used to seeing. So when I said "out of the consumers price range" I did NOT mean they CAN'T afford them. I'm just saying these boxed sets are not for the casual buyer.

Transformers on HD-DVD will be the most "casual buy" item of the year for that format and will get those customers who have an HD-DVD player (and many who don't), to purchase it.

[BluOgre]

Originally Posted by Slapper

Blades of Glory was NOT a blockbuster and was NOT expected to move big numbers on HD-DVD. Heroes is is simply out of most people's price range so, it too did not sell big numbers. Transformers IS a blockbuster movie in the same category as 300 and in the same retail price range. The demographics on both are similar. 300 sold over 70,000 the first week on HD-DVD if I remember right. So, you can count on Transformers moving AT LEAST that many units considering all the "neutral" people will have NO choice but to buy the HD-DVD if they want it in hi-def.

What does Blu-ray have to counter that 70,000? FF 2, 28 Weeks Later, and Surf's up should still be selling well as they will have only been on the shelves for one or two weeks. But, that's not going to be enough to keep Blu-ray in the lead for the week of Oct. 16th. What I see is Transformers moving more than 100,000 units on HD-DVD the first week. I'm sure others feel that it will sell these numbers too. If you've been following the sales of this title on Amazon you'll see that it has been preselling very well since they made it available for pre-order.

If release schedules stay where they're at now Blu-ray may be looking at a 56/44 ratio...on the losing end.

Blades of Glory made over a $100 million in the boxoffice. That is a BIG title in the movie business. It's not compareable to Pirates, Spidey, or Transformers but a movie does not generate $100 million unless a LOT of people went to go see it.

There are 2 Disney Boxoffice titles (small ones like The Invisible) and the Reaper from Warner hitting on the 16th of Oct as well. There is just too much product to purchase that day for Transformers to make as high an impact as everyone seems to think (those thinking HD will overtake BR in total sales).

Transformers is going to sale.....it's just not going to sale enough to overtake Blu-Ray. In totality there is just too much product available and not enough for HD.

[BluOgre]

Originally Posted by The Shrike

Here's how I'm looking at Transformers week: The last numbers I saw, 300 on BD has moved 135k units, right? In June, HD DVD said that they had sold 150k players. In order to get numbers as high as 300, just about every single HD DVD player owner would have to purchase a copy of Transformers. I don't think that's going to happen. Thoughts?

It could happen....my point is this will NOT happen in just one week. Over a month, sure it will sale that much. Not in one week.

[richard lichtenfelt]

Insiders know that the Transformers week will probably be the biggest hd-dvd sales week of the year. They also know why it won't be on blu-ray, not because it wouldn't have sold well. This is not going to help hd-dvd gain any points against blu-ray. Now if blu-ray outsells hd-dvd during this week then blu-ray gains points.
The effect of Transformers will not transform the format war, not to hd-dvds benefit anyhow.