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Old 01-13-2020, 10:00 PM   #19901
Steedeel Steedeel is online now
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Originally Posted by avs commenter View Post
Yep. I'd expect EST to decrease and disc to have another double digit drop next year
It might be a poor year across the board this year with no huge tent pole Marvel films such as Endgame or Spidey. No Star Wars either.
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Old 01-13-2020, 10:39 PM   #19902
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Looking at the numbers and the numbers for the past few years. As stated, online streaming via subscription is where the future is like it or not. Not surprising to anybody paying attention of course. I do agree with Vilya, if purchasing a movie, most people will opt for physical disc rather than EST. Makes a lot more sense to spend $14 dollars and get a disk rather than just online.

Given this trend, in a few more years, that 62% market share for subscription will likely get into the 75% range. When more and more things get pulled to streaming only to entice subs, than that number may grow even bigger. At some point it will plateau and disk sales will bottom out. Even that will slowly erode as the older generation dies off.
Subscription streaming is quite analogous to pay TV services, which remain far and away the largest home entertainment outlay. I remember wishing for an a la carte cable TV system where I could pick only the channels that I wanted and while cable TV has never done that for me, the ever increasing number of subscription streaming services essentially have. And for far less money even with my internet service factored into the cost. Pay TV, like SVOD, has always been disposable entertainment to me; I use the latter and I have long ago cancelled the former.

TV shows, or episodic series, unique to a given SVOD service are more likely to be the draw for many people. If you want to watch The Baby Yoda Show, then you have to get Disney+. Thankfully, I am not interested. It is these episodic series unique to a given provider that are the main attraction whether that provider is a SVOD or a Pay TV channel.

The CD did not die out with older generations and I doubt that home video content on disc will, either. It will settle into a niche market of a certain size and remain nice and comfy there. There will always be those who want to actually own a copy of their favorite films and shows. At some point discs might even become retro and cool to those who are young now, who knows? It would not be the first time that that has happened.

I think physical media will endure and should I be wrong about that I do know how to adapt. What I mean by "adapt" I will leave open to interpretation. Suffice it to say that anything that I purchase must convey true and tangible ownership.

Last edited by Vilya; 01-14-2020 at 08:49 AM.
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Old 01-13-2020, 10:45 PM   #19903
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It might be a poor year across the board this year with no huge tent pole Marvel films such as Endgame or Spidey. No Star Wars either.
Tyler Perry will save the day with more Madea movies. The future is grand.
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Old 01-13-2020, 10:48 PM   #19904
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Originally Posted by Vilya View Post
Tyler Perry will save the day with more Madea movies. The future is grand.
I would prefer Spidey!
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Old 01-13-2020, 10:53 PM   #19905
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I would prefer Spidey!
A movie with Spidey and Madea would be a lot of fun; I'm all for it!
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Old 01-13-2020, 10:56 PM   #19906
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Originally Posted by Vilya View Post
A movie with Spidey and Madea would be a lot of fun; I'm all for it!
I feel fuzzy!
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Old 01-13-2020, 10:58 PM   #19907
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I feel fuzzy!
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Old 01-13-2020, 11:27 PM   #19908
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Shame Netflix can't actually make a profit despite it all. How long can losing money in record amounts be sustained? Emmy nominations don't pay stock dividends to shareholders.

Netflix has had to borrow over $1 billion eight times in the last 5 years. They were $12.43 billion in debt at the end of 2019, up from $10.36 billion the previous year. They sold $2.2 billion in junk bonds in April of 2019. Their ink is running ever redder.
But their disc rental service is still making money! In August, they reported their disc rental arm made $47 million in profit during the previous quarter.
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Old 01-14-2020, 12:10 AM   #19909
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But their disc rental service is still making money! In August, they reported their disc rental arm made $47 million in profit during the previous quarter.
The delicious irony!

Netflix should've just stuck with discs; at least renting them generates a modest profit. They started their streaming service in 2007 and began bleeding money ever since and all from a self-inflicted wound.

Netflix has not had any positive cash flow since 2011. Their best year was way, way back in 2009 when they actually had a positive cash flow of $279 million. Netflix has been in the red since 2012 and they are deeper in debt every year. They are $12.43 billion in debt at the end of 2019 and they are projected to be in debt at least $14.5 billion by the end of 2020. Is this the streaming future that they dreamed of way back in 2007?

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Old 01-14-2020, 12:30 AM   #19910
Steedeel Steedeel is online now
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Originally Posted by Vilya View Post
The delicious irony!

Netflix should've just stuck with discs; at least renting them generates a modest profit. They started their streaming service in 2007 and began bleeding money ever since and all from a self-inflicted wound.

Netflix has not had any positive cash flow since 2011. Their best year was way, way back in 2009 when they actually had a positive cash flow of $279 million. Netflix has been in the red since 2012 and they are deeper in debt every year. They are $12.43 billion in debt at the end of 2019 and they are projected to be in debt at least $14.5 billion by the end of 2020. Is this the streaming future that they dreamed of way back in 2007?
I fully expect to see ads at some point. They may try the ‘ads when show is paused’ trick. Or maybe a couple of quick 30 second ads before each show. Subscription fees plus ads in other words.
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Old 01-14-2020, 12:55 AM   #19911
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I will always prefer discs and continue to enjoy burning discs in the years to come.

EST would only be appealing if the content were to be DRM-free and matched Blu-ray in regards to A/V quality so that, perhaps, I could burn Blu-ray discs of my purchases.

I have too many discs that I have purchased over the years that I still haven't been around to watching, so I have no interest whatsoever in streaming services at present, and doubt I will for the foreseeable future (even if I were to stop buying discs, I reckon my unwatched discs will last me a good few years). A lot of streaming exclusives wind up on disc anyway at some point, and if not, I don't consider it a great loss as most of it doesn't appeal to me.

Internet speeds are also horrid in Australia. I can hardly watch anything without being subjected to buffering or the video just failing to play altogether. A few years ago, the only show I had ever purchased on iTunes was Season 7 of King of the Hill (the episodes being about 200MB or so in size) and via Apple TV, it was *still* stuttering and/or failed to play. Absolutely pathetic. And HD streaming would be so much worse, let alone UHD! And while things have improved a tad over the years, buffering and the like has continually ruined my viewing sessions.

I am quite happy with my discs. And I also have the flexibility to rip and watch them on other devices if I so choose, so it's best of both worlds.
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Old 01-14-2020, 03:19 AM   #19912
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The problem I had with Netflix's disc-rental/mailing program is that most of the stuff I wanted to watch was only available on DVD. They must not have thought it was worth it to buy Blu-ray for a lot of older stuff. There still is no 4K Blu-ray available. I was getting quite a few damaged discs.

As for owning disc vs digitally, it depends on the movie for me. Some classic movie I really enjoy watching a lot like Heat or The Terminator, I would rather own the Blu-ray. Something that isn't my favorite, I am fine owning VUDU HDX.

Last edited by stonesfan129; 01-14-2020 at 03:26 AM.
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Old 01-14-2020, 03:45 PM   #19913
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The problem I had with Netflix's disc-rental/mailing program is that most of the stuff I wanted to watch was only available on DVD. They must not have thought it was worth it to buy Blu-ray for a lot of older stuff. There still is no 4K Blu-ray available. I was getting quite a few damaged discs.

As for owning disc vs digitally, it depends on the movie for me. Some classic movie I really enjoy watching a lot like Heat or The Terminator, I would rather own the Blu-ray. Something that isn't my favorite, I am fine owning VUDU HDX.
I haven't done discs with Netfilx in a long time. Not surprised they cut back on blu-ray and no 4K Blu-ray. They recognize streaming is preferred by the market going forward. Most of their enormous current debt is because of their investment into original programming. They know that once other studios get their streaming platforms up, the Netflix catalog will be crap. They just spent way too much it seems. I don't know how they dig themselves out from a revenue standpoint.

I am getting to the point where you are in regards to the movie. I used to be a blind buy disc everything. Now it depends on the movie. Big effects blockbusters, I will still get the disc. Other stuff, putting it in the online library is good enough. After doing some disc to digital, some of my discs are getting traded in.
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Old 01-14-2020, 03:48 PM   #19914
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I haven't done discs with Netfilx in a long time. Not surprised they cut back on blu-ray and no 4K Blu-ray. They recognize streaming is preferred by the market going forward. Most of their enormous current debt is because of their investment into original programming. They know that once other studios get their streaming platforms up, the Netflix catalog will be crap. They just spent way too much it seems. I don't know how they dig themselves out from a revenue standpoint.

I am getting to the point where you are in regards to the movie. I used to be a blind buy disc everything. Now it depends on the movie. Big effects blockbusters, I will still get the disc. Other stuff, putting it in the online library is good enough. After doing some disc to digital, some of my discs are getting traded in.
‘Good enough’ isn’t in my vocabulary.
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Old 01-14-2020, 05:36 PM   #19915
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How many years can Netflix stay in red numbers before it all comes crashing down ? They seem to spend more every year.
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Old 01-14-2020, 05:37 PM   #19916
Steedeel Steedeel is online now
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How many years can Netflix stay in red numbers before it all comes crashing down ? They seem to spend more every year.
Until they offer ads (which they will).
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Old 01-14-2020, 05:52 PM   #19917
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Until they offer ads (which they will).
You think their costumers will tolerate that ?
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Old 01-14-2020, 05:53 PM   #19918
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You think their costumers will tolerate that ?
I do mate, yeah. Either ads when you pause a show or two or three 30 second ads before a show starts.
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Old 01-14-2020, 05:58 PM   #19919
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Until they offer ads (which they will).
I don't think that adding advertising will endear them to their customers without a corresponding drop in their monthly rates which could negate any gains that they might hope to make from any ad revenue in the first place. Ads could cost them subscribers if there is no benefit to the customer from their inclusion. It would take a hell of a lot of ad revenue to erase the debt that they already have, $12.43 billion, and their expenses are only increasing. Netflix is discovering that making their own content is quite expensive.

Another possibility is that their ever heavier debt burden could make them a possible target for a takeover. Some company that actually makes money and that has plenty to spend might buy them. I would not be surprised if some giant like Disney, Apple, AT&T, etc. bought them in a fire sale and added them to their empire. Such potential buyers as these are all very profitable companies and they each have many revenue sources. Netflix, by contrast, has so very few revenue sources and they have not made a profit in nine years.

I'm just speculating, of course. At the moment Netflix's stock price is quite high at $339.66 per share, but that continues to be based upon the yet unproven belief that someday they might actually make some money. They haven't made a net dime since 2011; how long will investors maintain confidence in a company that never makes any money?

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Old 01-14-2020, 06:07 PM   #19920
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Quote:
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Until they offer ads (which they will).
They have always said they would not, time will tell. I do believe sub rates will be raised again and soon.
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