Home Video Sales Thread (HMM weekly/DEG quarterly/Nielsen Top 20/etc.)

[bruceames]

Here's one more with Top 20 Blu-ray share, except with a 13 week moving average. Period is from the beginning of 2010 through the first four weeks of 2016.

[bruceames]

Chart shows the 13 week moving average of DVD (purple line) and Blu-ray (blue line) from the first week of January in 2012 through the first 3 weeks of this year. So the vertical line over "53" is the first week in 2013, the line over "105" is the first week in 2014, etc. I'll hopefully figure out how to replace those numbers with more meaningful labels soon.

As for the chart, notice the spike in Blu-rays YoY performance, while DVD's lays flat.

[bruceames]

52 week moving average of the same (same time period as well).

[bruceames]

Overall (Blu-ray + DVD)


http://www.homemediamagazine.com/top...k-ended-013116

[bruceames]

Blu-ray Top 20 WE 1-31-16



http://www.homemediamagazine.com/top...k-ended-013116

[bruceames]

Looking back at the Top 20 charts, it looks like it was a combination of 3 factors, as to why Blu-ray has suddenly surged (since September of last year).

1) Q4 was very strong compared to the year before. Especially in regards to mega-blockbusters, which have a higher than normal Blu-ray share. Things started kicking off during Furious 7 week. Cinderella was released that week too. Both had at least a 60% share.

2) Aladdin was near the top of the charts for several weeks and it was a Blu-ray exclusive, so that's 100% share for Blu-ray right there.

3) And right when Aladdins sales started to fade, the Star Wars craze started in December with those expensive (and exclusive to Blu-ray) box sets in the top 20 (and even now they still are).

So all of those factors contributed to Blu-ray rising and DVD not rising. An addition, box office power is up so far this year as well. I'm sure the Star Wars release is going to give Blu-ray a massive boost in April.

[Wendell R. Breland]

Originally Posted by bruceames.

Looking back at the Top 20 charts, it looks like it was a combination of 3 factors, as to why Blu-ray has suddenly surged (since September of last year).

In my case it was because there was a surprising number of new titles that were purchased. For example, Ant-Man - 3D, Fury, Mad Max: Fury Road, Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation, Pan, Seventh Son, Sicario*, Terminator Genisys, The Monuments Men, The Water Diviner, Unbroken and several others turned out to be better/much better than expected. Also purchased quite a few catalog titles during this same period (Q3 & Q4 15).

*Will wait for and purchase the UHD BD version (has a 4K DI and one of the best working DP's).

[bruceames]

Here's the 13 week moving average Top 20 BD share, with (finally) date formatting.

Notice the spike in market share at the end of each year, which of course is due to higher profile movies being released which generally have a higher unit share than the norm. Last year's spike was the biggest ever, going from 35% in September to over 50% by the end of year.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by Wendell R. Breland

In my case it was because there was a surprising number of new titles that were purchased. For example, Ant-Man - 3D, Fury, Mad Max: Fury Road, Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation, Pan, Seventh Son, Sicario*, Terminator Genisys, The Monuments Men, The Water Diviner, Unbroken and several others turned out to be better/much better than expected. Also purchased quite a few catalog titles during this same period (Q3 & Q4 15).

*Will wait for and purchase the UHD BD version (has a 4K DI and one of the best working DP's).

I bought a few of them myself (Jurassic World, Fury Road, Avengers and a couple of others). Like you going forward I'll be buying the UHD HD of new releases (if they're available and I want them of course). To me it's a great value to be paying only about $5 more and you get a UHD BD disc as well.

[rdodolak]

Copying over your post from DVDTalk, the tables on page 23 are pretty interesting. TV Series, direct-to-video, children's non-feature, and special interest releases on DVD far outweigh the Blu-ray releases.

Originally Posted by bruceames.

According to the dvdandblurayreleasereport, DVD had 10,017 releases last year (down 8.14%), while Blu-ray had 2,134 (up 3.9%). So DVD still releases well over 4x as many as Blu-ray.

[bruceames]

Yeah that's another Kosty find. Pretty interesting source of release info and it comes out every week too. It has a different idea of what constitutes a "theatrical catalog" though. It use the DVD launch date of 1997 to determine catalog for both formats. So it really undercounts the number of Blu-ray catalog that came out. Obviously at this point a movie from 1998 should not be considered "new theatrical", but it is in that report.

For example, the release report has 579 Blu-ray movies released last year under Theatrical Catalog (TC), but according to my counts there were 797. Also, I have more releases total than they do but generally that is pretty close. My counts below for the last two years (debut Blu-ray only, reissues and box sets of previously released movies not included)

2015 total releases: 2319
2014 total releases: 1910

2015 New Theatrical: 511 / $10477.1M TBO
2014 New Theatrical: 459 / $10433.3M TBO

2015 Theatrical Catalog*: 797 total / 121 major studios
2014 Theatrical Catalog*: 582 total / 159 major studios

[Blu Titan]

Originally Posted by rdodolak

Copying over your post from DVDTalk, the tables on page 23 are pretty interesting. TV Series, direct-to-video, children's non-feature, and special interest releases on DVD far outweigh the Blu-ray releases.

There we are looking at things that do have great appeal to collectors. Quality and features are not a big concern and the driving force is the cheapest possible selling price.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by Blu Titan

There we are looking at things that do have great appeal to collectors. Quality and features are not a big concern and the driving force is the cheapest possible selling price.

Per my figures above though Blu-ray has and is making good strides in getting the more obscure releases out. Catalog output was up 37% last year and overall it was up 21%.

Also we are see more BD-r releases, which I think are essential in getting movies and other types of content out on the format. Content that wouldn't be feasible by pressed discs because of cost and minimum pressing requirements. DVD has been enjoying that advantage for years, starting notably with the Warner Archive DVD program. Unfortunately Warner won't release BD-r because they probably feel their are too many incompatible players out there (particularly the Xbox One) and it's not worth the hassle of returns.

[Tok]

Originally Posted by bruceames.

I bought a few of them myself (Jurassic World, Fury Road, Avengers and a couple of others). Like you going forward I'll be buying the UHD HD of new releases (if they're available and I want them of course). To me it's a great value to be paying only about $5 more and you get a UHD BD disc as well.

Let's not bank on the $5 up-sell cost yet. It was one title. I have a feeling we are going to see prices all over the board for the foreseeable future. The prices on the upcoming Warner titles are not a good omen. $40+ for mostly catalog titles? Come on man!

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by Tok

Let's not bank on the $5 up-sell cost yet. It was one title. I have a feeling we are going to see prices all over the board for the foreseeable future. The prices on the upcoming Warner titles are not a good omen. $40+ for mostly catalog titles? Come on man!

That's ridiculous but those prices should come down before release. It is SRP after all, and those SRP prices are (pretty much) the same as the BD.

[bruceames]

Box Office Comparison DOWN -49.51% From the Previous Year
Street Title Box Office | Street Title Box Office
|
1/26/16 Goosebumps $80.02 | 1/27/15 Fury $85.82
1/26/16 Burnt $13.65 | 1/27/15 The Judge $47.12
1/26/16 Chi-Raq $2.65 | 1/27/15 The Book of Life $50.15
1/26/16 A Brilliant Young Mind $0.17 | 1/27/15 Why Don't You Play in Hell? $0.03
1/26/16 The Assassin $0.63 | 1/27/15 Art and Craft $0.24
1/26/16 The New Girlfriend $0.15 | 1/27/15 Before I Go to Sleep $3.24
| 1/27/15 Days and Nights $0.01
| 1/27/15 Mas Negro Que La Noche $0.87
| 1/27/15 My Old Lady $4.01
| 1/27/15 The Remaining $1.17
| 1/27/15 Open Windows $0.00
|
Total Box Office Power: $97.27 | Total Box Office Power: $192.66
|
Top Selling Title for Week Ended 1/31/16 | Top Selling Title for Week Ended 2/1/15

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/mar...k-ended-013016

[Coenskubrick]

Noooo, what a crappy week.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by Coenskubrick

Noooo, what a crappy week.

Down only 7 percent. Not bad when you consider the box office power difference ($97 million this year vs. $192 last year). Also Fury is going to do better than Goosebumps on Blu-ray.

I predict Blu-ray will be up the first half of this year, since last year was weak and we have the latest Star Wars coming out. Then there's the unknown impact of UHD Blu-ray. Hopefully it'll take off better than expected. There is lots of activity on the UHD threads, people extremely anxious to get their player and media.

[BiggNewt]

Originally Posted by bruceames.

Down only 7 percent. Not bad when you consider the box office power difference ($97 million this year vs. $192 last year). Also Fury is going to do better than Goosebumps on Blu-ray.

I predict Blu-ray will be up the first half of this year, since last year was weak and we have the latest Star Wars coming out. Then there's the unknown impact of UHD Blu-ray. Hopefully it'll take off better than expected. There is lots of activity on the UHD threads, people extremely anxious to get their player and media.

Not anxious for $45 movies, however.

[bruceames]

Originally Posted by BiggNewt

Not anxious for $45 movies, however.

I've got 5 movies coming from Fox Connect for less than $19 each (code savings) and 5 more from Amazon.ca for about the same price (thanks to better prices and the exchange rate). When I can get the Warner movies for under $25 then I'll think about getting a few from them too. I don't think hardly anybody is preordering at the $45 price point. It'll come down. The format isn't going to take off with high prices like that, but those are the exceptions. Seems that Warner wants to charge more for their new release movies these days, even on regular Blu-ray.