Home Video Sales Thread (HMM weekly/DEG quarterly/Nielsen Top 20/etc.)

[Lee A Stewart]

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

[Boccaccio]

Blu ray down 21 % again.

[cgpublic]

Physical media sales trending to less than $500 million per annum, down from a peak of $16B, as in billion.

It’s a good thing studio catalog titles and boutique labels are holding their own and keeping market active with interesting releases.

[hariseldon]

Originally Posted by cgpublic

Physical media sales trending to less than $500 million per annum, down from a peak of $16B, as in billion.

It’s a good thing studio catalog titles and boutique labels are holding their own and keeping market active with interesting releases.

Trending to get to 500M? In 2030 maybe or am I missing some hyperbole. Worst case scenario for 2020 looks to be 3.2B

Bluray alone has already sold over 500M this year despite Covid and minimal new releases for nearly 2 months in a Blockbuster driven business

[Lee A Stewart]

Originally Posted by hariseldon

Trending to get to 500M? In 2030 maybe or am I missing some hyperbole. Worst case scenario for 2020 looks to be 3.2B

Bluray alone has already sold over 500M this year despite Covid and minimal new releases for nearly 2 months in a Blockbuster driven business

According to you, physical media won't fall by the end of 2020. Total sales for 2019 were $3.292B. That was an 18% drop from 2018.

https://www.degonline.org/portfolio_...ment-report-2/

So another 18% drop will yield approx. $2.7B. $500M less than your guess.

[hariseldon]

I do stand correctly and apologize-- I was crossed-eyed looking at 2018 HMM total of 4.1B, HMM had 2019 BD+BD at a hair less than 3.4B. I was even making worst case prediction at -30% so it should have been 2.4B.

The statement I was reacting to from the post I quoted (unless I'm misreading something which is always possible) "Physical media sales trending to less than $500 million per annum, down from a peak of $16B, as in billion" is just wrong unless they are projecting 2025/2027 or 2030 possibly. Even a 30% decrease this year would still make it 500% what that sentence states/projects.

Maybe they meant 500M less this year than last but then the last part of the sentence makes no sense.

Q1 sales in 2020 were 670M from the HMM numbers in this thread and YTD sales appear to be around 1.2B through 23 wks.
Bluray alone has sold 500+M this year

[Wendell R. Breland]

Originally Posted by hariseldon

I do stand correctly and apologize--

No need, the two posters you responded to are anti physical disc people. Lee responded to your positive post and did not respond to cgpublic's negative post.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by Wendell R. Breland

No need, the two posters you responded to are anti physical disc people. Lee responded to your positive post and did not respond to cgpublic's negative post.

Yep, noticed that.

[cgpublic]

Originally Posted by hariseldon

Trending to get to 500M? In 2030 maybe or am I missing some hyperbole. Worst case scenario for 2020 looks to be 3.2B

That's right, trending to $500M within the next three to five years, not 2030, depending on the content/theatrical exhibition situation.

Originally Posted by hariseldon

Bluray alone has already sold over 500M this year despite Covid and minimal new releases for nearly 2 months in a Blockbuster driven business

That's $1.2B with Star Wars and 2019/2020 theatrical releases.

With Hollywood at a standstill, do you think that the trend is going to flatten, or will it feed on itself and spiral exponentially?

$2B this year would be golden given Disney, Pixar, Star Wars, Marvel and DC have nothing in the pipeline, and if it hits the fan re: theatrical, you'll never see that number again.

Like I said, it's a good thing the market is active with plenty of low-volume, interesting releases, because the days of mass-market physical media is drawing to a close.

[cgpublic]

Originally Posted by Wendell R. Breland

No need, the two posters you responded to are anti physical disc people. Lee responded to your positive post and did not respond to cgpublic's negative post.

Originally Posted by Steedeel

Yep, noticed that.

I've ponied up well over a thousand dollars in cold cash this year for The Skywalker Saga, Columbia Classics Vol. 1 and a slew of other UHD, Blu and DVD physical media titles.

So to suggest that I'm anti-physical media is a misrepresentation based on a misunderstanding.

We simply have a different perception of the present and what the future may hold.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by cgpublic

That's right, trending to $500M within the next three to five years, not 2030, depending on the content/theatrical exhibition situation.

That's $1.2B with Star Wars and 2019/2020 theatrical releases.

With Hollywood at a standstill, do you think that the trend is going to flatten, or will it feed on itself and spiral exponentially?

$2B this year would be golden given Disney, Pixar, Star Wars, Marvel and DC have nothing in the pipeline, and if it hits the fan re: theatrical, you'll never see that number again.

Like I said, it's a good thing the market is active with plenty of low-volume, interesting releases, because the days of mass-market physical media is drawing to a close.

Yeah, no.

[Steedeel]

Originally Posted by cgpublic

I've ponied up well over a thousand dollars in cold cash this year for The Skywalker Saga, Columbia Classics Vol. 1 and a slew of other UHD, Blu and DVD physical media titles.

So to suggest that I'm anti-physical media is a misrepresentation based on a misunderstanding.

We simply have a different perception of the present and what the future may hold.

You have also invested in digital media and now have a invested interest in that future. The thing is, why aren’t you expressing your opinion about THAT market? Ignoring this year which obviously is going to be a abnormality, Digital HD has only been growing by single digits YOY. A very unhealthy position and the key reason we haven’t seen the industry shouting about the format from the rooftops.

Subscription cannot be directly compared with disc either.

[Lee A Stewart]

Originally Posted by cgpublic

That's right, trending to $500M within the next three to five years, not 2030, depending on the content/theatrical exhibition situation.

If we use a yearly drop of 18% for physical media:

2019: $3.2B
2020: $2.7B
2021: $2.2B
2022: $1.8B
2023: $1.4B
2024: $1.2B
2025: $1.0B
2026: $0.8B
2027: $0.6B
2028: $0.5B

That's $1.2B with Star Wars and 2019/2020 theatrical releases.

With Hollywood at a standstill, do you think that the trend is going to flatten, or will it feed on itself and spiral exponentially?

$2B this year would be golden given Disney, Pixar, Star Wars, Marvel and DC have nothing in the pipeline, and if it hits the fan re: theatrical, you'll never see that number again.

Like I said, it's a good thing the market is active with plenty of low-volume, interesting releases, because the days of mass-market physical media is drawing to a close.

2020 will be an anomaly due to the Pandemic. Drop from 2019 may exceed 18%. But then all the movies that have been rescheduled for 2021 will reflect on that year's sales reducing the drop %. 4th quarter movies usually don't show up on disc until 1st quarter of the following year.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by cgpublic

Physical media sales trending to less than $500 million per annum, down from a peak of $16B, as in billion.

It’s a good thing studio catalog titles and boutique labels are holding their own and keeping market active with interesting releases.

Please crawl back under your rock.

First quarter sales for physical media in 2020 were $637.78 million which already surpasses your idiotic $500 million prediction.



https://www.degonline.org/portfolio_...inment-report/

Mass marketing of popular new titles will resume on physical media shortly after theatrical exhibitions return to normal.

The pandemic is doing few industries any favors; record unemployment has a way of adversely impacting people's discretionary spending.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by cgpublic

I've ponied up well over a thousand dollars in cold cash this year for The Skywalker Saga, Columbia Classics Vol. 1 and a slew of other UHD, Blu and DVD physical media titles.

So to suggest that I'm anti-physical media is a misrepresentation based on a misunderstanding.

We simply have a different perception of the present and what the future may hold.

You may not be "anti" physical media, but you are no advocate for it. You're at best an opportunist who would be just as happy making only digital purchases.

What you actually are is a troll. You only appear in threads like this one to aggravate those of that actually care about physical media. You have a long history of doing exactly this: you pick some negative news item and use it as the basis for your latest death of physical media prediction. And it usually takes a wall of text for you to make the same tired prediction. You have been doing this for years taking all day to say nothing we haven't heard countless times before; you have no special insight, just the talent for being a persistent pest.

You don't give a damn what happens to physical media; you just want to annoy those of us that do care.

[Lee A Stewart]

That DEG report is very interesting. It shows that EST outsold disc: $750M versus $637M. Seeing as the report covers Jan - March when the Pandemic had just started to really take hold the 2nd quarter report will show more how the Pandemic affected HV sales. I fully expect to see disc do poorly due to store closures and shipping emphasis placed on essential goods which won't affect EST sales.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

That DEG report is very interesting. It shows that EST outsold disc: $750M versus $637M. Seeing as the report covers Jan - March when the Pandemic had just started to really take hold the 2nd quarter report will show more how the Pandemic affected HV sales. I fully expect to see disc do poorly due to store closures and shipping emphasis placed on essential goods which won't affect EST sales.

It is the first time that EST has overtaken physical media sales.

I don't expect to see anything to celebrate in the second quarter report, either, and I have no doubt that it will re-energize the Chicken Littles on this forum and their "the sky is falling" mantra.

2020 is an anomaly and we are going to see lots of dire and strange results across many sectors of the economy, but I would be hesitant to say that it indicates what the future will be like once we are past this pandemic. People will resume doing all that they enjoy just as soon as they feel safe doing so and can afford it.

[cgpublic]

Originally Posted by Steedeel

Yeah, no.

Ha ha ha. That's one compelling argument you've put out there for consideration.

Originally Posted by Steedeel

You have also invested in digital media and now have a invested interest in that future.

Who are you, a member of the House Un-Physical Media Activities Committee?

Originally Posted by Steedeel

The thing is, why aren’t you expressing your opinion about THAT market? Ignoring this year which obviously is going to be a abnormality, Digital HD has only been growing by single digits YOY. A very unhealthy position and the key reason we haven’t seen the industry shouting about the format from the rooftops. Subscription cannot be directly compared with disc either.

Digital, sales and streaming, is here to stay, with streaming leading the way.

What else is there to say?

If a film is unavailable on physical media, in any or superior format, or perhaps at a substantially lower price, why wouldn't I, or anyone else for that matter, not consider a digital purchase?

It doesn't make any sense.

[Vilya]

Originally Posted by cgpublic

Ha ha ha. That's one compelling argument you've put out there for consideration.

His response to you is more compelling than anything that you have ever posted. He actually said more of value in two words than you ever have in any of your many voluminous ego-driven puff pieces.

Originally Posted by cgpublic

Who are you, a member of the House Un-Physical Media Activities Committee?

Who are you but an unabashed troll stirring the same pot?

Originally Posted by cgpublic

Digital, sales and streaming, is here to stay, with streaming leading the way.

Subscription streaming has nothing to do with purchases; another concept beyond your comprehension.

All purchase methods are here to stay, including physical media. Purchase revenue from all sources has never held a candle to what pay TV subscriptions generate and pay TV still makes far more money than subscription streaming.

[cgpublic]

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

If we use a yearly drop of 18% for physical media.

Sure, that's possible. It's also possible that the decline will begin to snowball into an unprecedented and unstoppable spiral of increasing percentages due to variables such wholesale exits of the physical media platform and loss of retail brick and mortar shelf space.

Originally Posted by Lee A Stewart

2020 will be an anomaly due to the Pandemic. Drop from 2019 may exceed 18%. But then all the movies that have been rescheduled for 2021 will reflect on that year's sales reducing the drop %. 4th quarter movies usually don't show up on disc until 1st quarter of the following year.

Once again, that's possible, although it is a bit of eye-opening to state a loss of 'only' 20% is the upside.

No, I'm going to put it out there again that we are looking at a total collapse of the mass-market physical media market in the next three to five years.

Once again, I do believe a thriving niche market led by boutique labels will keep things interesting for the physical media collector.