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Old 04-25-2020, 09:08 AM   #61
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Originally Posted by voltz View Post
Yeah the routine "not gonna happen" post isn't going to cut it with me.

I'm actually taking a look at the possible outcome we could be impacted the entire year and if that's enough to force most big chain theaters to shut down, then this hits Hollywood's bottom line following a trickle effect that hurts us. The thing that needs to be discussed is how new releases is going to change, along with digital/physical media and streaming availability. The first thing we've already done is VOD with $20 per rental. Next will come changes to the release period along whether or not movies will stay on a rental phase for a much longer period of time to recoup and whether or not the rights to purchase ownership will be limited.

We've already seen changes within the first month of companies closing their doors to the public, so it's likely this is only the prelude of things to come as they're starting to act out quickly to settle this.
All the big tentpole movies are being moved to 2021 for release. Those $20 VODs are smaller budget movies.

No results are being published about how successful ($ wise) those $20 VODs have been. Hollywood can wax lyrical all they want about them. Until they say exactly how much they have made from them, take all kudos with a grain of salt.

One thing that may happen is movies stay in theaters longer as long as social distancing is required. If a theater is reduced to 50% capacity then it will take 2X as long to recoup revenues. That means all home video releases for those movies will be delayed 2X as long.
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Old 04-25-2020, 12:19 PM   #62
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The first thing we've already done is VOD with $20 per rental.
I wouldn't pay $20.00 to rent a movie, when you can practically buy it for almost the same price. The majority of these movies are nothing but crap anyway, and they're not worth paying anything to see them. Hollywood have been flushing billions of dollars down the toilet from box office flops for decades, so losing money from the shutdown shouldn't matter.

Last edited by slimdude; 04-25-2020 at 12:29 PM.
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Old 04-25-2020, 03:06 PM   #63
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You guys are nuts. If AMC goes into bankruptcy, they can simply be sold as a whole to a new buyer with no debts for cheap, problem solved.
But who's going to buy them? Hundreds of locations spread out all over the country, many of them in need of upgrades. Staff & management have all been let go, meaning the new owner would get stuck with a complete restaffing. And any likely buyers (Regal, Cinemark, Alamo, etc.) are also having financial troubles themselves and therefore unlikely to take on any new debt. If AMC gets sold, it will probably be in pieces; Regal buys the marquee IMAX/Dolby theaters, local chains like my area's Malco Theaters might buy a few locations in their existing territory, etc.
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Old 04-25-2020, 03:29 PM   #64
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But who's going to buy them? Hundreds of locations spread out all over the country, many of them in need of upgrades. Staff & management have all been let go, meaning the new owner would get stuck with a complete restaffing. And any likely buyers (Regal, Cinemark, Alamo, etc.) are also having financial troubles themselves and therefore unlikely to take on any new debt. If AMC gets sold, it will probably be in pieces; Regal buys the marquee IMAX/Dolby theaters, local chains like my area's Malco Theaters might buy a few locations in their existing territory, etc.
oh please, Regal are already cheap bastards and have yet to even upgrade their IMAX screens to 4K laser/12 channel surround. Regal can't even decide on a uniform implementation of Dolby Atmos on their RPX screens, which they should be doing in the first place but are not.

If and when the dust settles, it will be interesting if Dolby severs the chord with AMC and allows other chains to invest in Dolby Cinema, but until theaters reopen every upgrade and new installs will be put on the burner.

Last edited by Dubstar; 04-25-2020 at 03:34 PM.
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Old 04-25-2020, 06:58 PM   #65
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Originally Posted by slimdude View Post
I wouldn't pay $20.00 to rent a movie, when you can practically buy it for almost the same price. The majority of these movies are nothing but crap anyway, and they're not worth paying anything to see them. Hollywood have been flushing billions of dollars down the toilet from box office flops for decades, so losing money from the shutdown shouldn't matter.
When one buys a movie ticket at a commercial movie theater it costs around $10 per person. I was suggesting that only some finished movies could be released on video on demand for $20-$50+. If 3 or 4 family members go to a movie theater together it can cost at least $30-$40. Normally when people purchase a expensive video on demand movie they will try and get as many family members in the same house together to watch the movie. Therefore, if one has 5 people in their family, and they pay $30 for the video on demand movie, it is cheaper then going to the commercial movie theater. However most commercial movie theaters have a better quality picture and sound when compared to ones average home theater setup. A million-dollar IMAX or Dolby Cinema theater needs to charge more money for a ticket to pay for the big investment the commercial theater has made with equipment.
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Old 04-27-2020, 04:21 AM   #66
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VOD means that families can take advantage of the program and the profits still go to Hollywood. Theaters are at no such liberty and they need concessions to make ends meet. Even if one were open, higher ticket prices and limited seating (plus fear of catching covid) doesn't mean operations are sustainable.

This is why a gov bailout is critical. Without it, closures are going to be forced once the money runs out. As it has already shown when it comes between theaters and what Hollywood takes for their cut, it's almost as if they could care less, especially if VOD really starts to take off.

I also worry 2-3 years down the road this could lead to quite a different attitude towards standards on film mastering as the home consumer market is 2k-4k rather then the DCP standards. I can already hear Quentin Tarantino crying.

Last edited by voltz; 04-27-2020 at 04:29 AM.
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Old 04-27-2020, 04:56 PM   #67
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Analyst: No Virus Vaccine, Netflix to Flourish, Theatres Languish

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As local and statewide economies slowly re-open businesses in the face of a COVID-19 pandemic that has killed more than 50,000 Americans, movie theaters today (April 27) will officially be allowed to open in the state of Georgia.

While Georgia Governor Brian Kemp’s order may be wishful thinking, the reality for movie exhibitors is far less rosy with staffing shortages, dearth of content and a weary consumer, according to media analyst Michael Pachter with Wedbush Securities in Los Angeles.

Pachter expects the 2020 box office to end down 47.1% from 2019 to $6 billion, and 2021 to end 59.5% higher than 2020. He expects minimal box office revenue in the current Q2, with ticket sales down a staggering 96.8% compared to the previous-year period.

“We think some areas may open in June, but we do not expect attendance levels to begin to normalize until there is a vaccine, or the end of the year at the earliest,” Pachter wrote in an April 27 note. “Studios have no incentive to release new movies until all theatres are open and will be reasonably well-attended, which is not likely until there is a vaccine.”

The analyst says there have been 62 movies either moved or pulled from the release slate, worth an estimated $7.2 billion. Of these films, 17 have not yet been assigned a new release date, worth an estimated $830 million. Of those, The Lovebirds, Scoob, and Artemis Fowl have been slated for direct-to-streaming.
https://www.mediaplaynews.com/analys...tres-languish/
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Old 04-27-2020, 06:58 PM   #68
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That's about the only way Hollywood is going to recoup, so they better start looking at VOD as their new box office.

What really gets me mad is we don't have some national rent freeze in place when we very well should given that so many people are unable to pull an income. With theater chains who don't own the property they're based on having to pay out the @$$ every month, this is going to do more then it's share of contributing to the chain's losses. I can expect most of the big names to take a hit, but I'm left wondering about the smaller places if they'll be able to escape all this?

The other problem with covid however is people aren't exactly as smart when it comes to handling a crisis situation as to where the toilet paper shortage was a good example. The curve lowers, people think everything's fine and start gathering on beaches, or where ever they wish to socialize, then boom. Virus is hitting us again. Worse case is this is going to become a phase where cycle lockdowns will remain in place rather then this being just seasonal and a lot of business is going to be gone by the end of this year, just simply because NOBODY looks at the charts to see if it's a flat line AND if whether or not the gov has given us the all clear yet.

So unless theaters have another plan in mind that doesn't involve losing all their earnings to Hollywood, I don't know what else anybody can say about their chances. They better get smart and start thinking up something pretty quick. If it were up to me, even with limited seating I would have something worked out where lots of older film releases can also be re-aired, but in this case they would be done with the incentive of giving most of the profits to theaters just so they can still be around. House showings, special screenings, you name it!
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Old 04-28-2020, 06:38 PM   #69
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Quote:
Originally Posted by slimdude View Post
I wouldn't pay $20.00 to rent a movie, when you can practically buy it for almost the same price. The majority of these movies are nothing but crap anyway, and they're not worth paying anything to see them.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/trolls-...od-11588066202

Over $100m in three weeks of VOD. I know it's a kids movie, so it's easy to make that much considering the kids are at home, but - only a matter of time before studios tempt folks by releasing big budget actioners this way.
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Old 04-29-2020, 05:59 PM   #70
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Default AMC Theatres Won’t Book Universal Movies Anymore After ‘Trolls World Tour’ VOD Releas

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"“It is disappointing to us, but Jeff’s comments as to Universal’s unilateral actions and intentions have left us with no choice,” Aron wrote. “Therefore, effectively immediately AMC will no longer play any Universal movies in any of our theatres in the United States, Europe or the Middle East. This policy affects any and all Universal movies per se, goes into effect today and as our theatres reopen, and is not some hollow or ill-considered threat.”

https://www.thewrap.com/amc-says-it-...films-anymore/
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Old 05-01-2020, 05:01 AM   #71
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in AMC's case, I don't see them keeping 'A-List'
Of course they will. They've got over 900,000 members. That's a guaranteed over $237 million a year (although not this year because they're not charging for the months that they're closed). And most of those members bring someone with them to the movies who pay regular prices. And a percentage of those people buy concessions. Their food & beverage per caps are $5.33 domestically and $3.51 internationally.

AMC just avoided bankruptcy, but their debt is the big killer and they have too many underperforming theaters. They only average ticket sales of 92 per day per screen. That's not sustainable. Whether they eventually declare Chapter XI or not, I think they're eventually going to have to dump the theaters that don't do well if they can get out of those leases.
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Old 05-01-2020, 08:50 PM   #72
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Of course they will. They've got over 900,000 members. That's a guaranteed over $237 million a year (although not this year because they're not charging for the months that they're closed). And most of those members bring someone with them to the movies who pay regular prices. And a percentage of those people buy concessions. Their food & beverage per caps are $5.33 domestically and $3.51 internationally.

AMC just avoided bankruptcy, but their debt is the big killer and they have too many underperforming theaters. They only average ticket sales of 92 per day per screen. That's not sustainable. Whether they eventually declare Chapter XI or not, I think they're eventually going to have to dump the theaters that don't do well if they can get out of those leases.
even for a Washington DC theater at a metro stop (Friendship Heights), I'm always worried my neighborhood theater isn't doing that well - it always seems like it's struggling in attendance - being in a dilapidated mall doesn't help.
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Old 05-03-2020, 02:23 AM   #73
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Texas Movie Theaters Reopen With Health, Temperature Checks

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A handful of movie theaters in San Antonio and Austin, Texas, are set to reopen in the coming days, providing an early test case for coronavirus protection measures.

EVO Entertainment plans to open two theaters on Monday using “airport security-style check-in,” says CEO Mitchell Roberts. Guests will enter a cordoned area near the front door, where they will be asked if they are anyone in their household have had flu symptoms in the last 14 days. They will also be subjected to an infrared temperature screening, with anyone over 100.4 degrees turned away.

“I feel like it’s really important for our guests to come in and see what we’re doing to protect them,” Roberts says. “The focus is on earning that customer confidence back.”

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott allowed theaters to reopen beginning on Friday at 25% capacity, as several states around the country have loosened their coronavirus restrictions. Despite that, the vast majority of theaters in Texas and elsewhere — including all the major chains — have remained closed, citing the lack of new movies to show and the challenges of providing a safe experience.
https://variety.com/2020/biz/news/te...us-1234595569/
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Old 05-03-2020, 03:58 AM   #74
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A few Drive-ins in Florida have re-opened. They are showing older movies, but it will quench my thirst for the big screen presentation.. And their drive-in popcorn is some of the best. (Draw back is that you have to drown yourself in DEET to keep the mosquitos away.)
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Old 05-03-2020, 06:01 AM   #75
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A few Drive-ins in Florida have re-opened. They are showing older movies, but it will quench my thirst for the big screen presentation.. And their drive-in popcorn is some of the best. (Draw back is that you have to drown yourself in DEET to keep the mosquitos away.)
Is it odorless because, nobody want to smell insect repellent on themselves while they're eating their snacks, plus you'll have to take a shower or a bath to wash it off when you get home. I wouldn't want to see a movie at the drive-in that bad, if I had to use repellent. If that's the case, I would stay home in the comfort of my own home and watch movies.
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Old 05-03-2020, 06:52 AM   #76
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As of July 2019 according to NATO
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Old Yesterday, 06:34 PM   #77
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"In a recent financial filing, AMC reported that it has "substantial doubt" it can remain in business following extended closures due to the coronavirus pandemic,.."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/movies/new...cid=spartandhp
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