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Old 08-09-2021, 11:05 PM   #21
PenguinInfinity PenguinInfinity is online now
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Originally Posted by BluBonnet View Post
You do realise there probably won't be any survivors, right?
I personally don't think it's likely that humans will destroy the entire planet. Nuclear war, extreme climate change, or a pandemic could certainly be catastrophic but I highly doubt that they would wipe out everyone.
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Old 08-09-2021, 11:06 PM   #22
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Another HUGE question I have...Is... How the hell do we know that Blu Ray disc's can last 100 or 1000 years... AGAIN they are made of plastic #1 and 2 "Discs" have only been around since the 70's...... where are we getting this "educated" information from....and HOW do they know??? are they 500 years old????
The Department of Defense and other military organizations have ran simulated aging techniques on optical discs, and they estimate the recordable M-Discs to last around 1,000 years. One just has to have faith in their testing results. There is no guarantee since a time machine does not exist to go forward to the year 3021 and travel back to report the results.

One can test any stamped optical media or recordable media along with hard drives and USB sticks to see which one lasts longer. The optical stamped media and M-Disc well out last anything else on the consumer market. Just try freezing and high temp and the hard drives and USB sticks well go bad long before the optical discs. One would have to heat the optical discs up to the melting point before it gets failure.
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Old 08-09-2021, 11:07 PM   #23
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I don't know of any reliable source that backs up the supposition that digital storage will be more stable than analog storage of information... If there is such a source anywhere, I'd love to read more about it.

However, speculating what the planet might look like in 1,000 years or whether any humans would still be around is something that, frankly, seems to me to be beyond our ability to accurately forecast future events.
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Old 08-09-2021, 11:11 PM   #24
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However, speculating what the planet might look like in 1,000 years or whether any humans would still be around is something that, frankly, seems to me to be beyond our ability to accurately forecast future events.
So everyone should just give up on making anything that could last a long time because the future is uncertain?

If people in the past had that attitude then none of the classic literature and artwork we have now would have survived.
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Old 08-09-2021, 11:17 PM   #25
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So everyone should just give up on making anything that could last a long time because the future is uncertain?
Please show me where I suggested such an absurd thing.

You can't - because I haven't.
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Old 08-09-2021, 11:25 PM   #26
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Please show me where I suggested such an absurd thing.

You can't - because I haven't.
I'm still trying to figure out what point your trying to make by pointing out that the future is uncertain.

Last edited by PenguinInfinity; 08-09-2021 at 11:34 PM.
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Old 08-09-2021, 11:31 PM   #27
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Originally Posted by PenguinInfinity View Post
I'm still trying to figure out what point your trying to make by pointing out that the future is uncertain.
At this point, it just seems very highly speculative to say the discs will last at least that long.

That doesn't mean they should stop working on technology - or any other absurd notion like you keep trying to put in my mouth.

It's not going to make any difference to any of us personally, so why should we get into a silly back-and-forth about whether or not it's a realistic estimate? If it is, great, but we're not going to be around to find out.
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Old 08-09-2021, 11:32 PM   #28
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I don't know of any reliable source that backs up the supposition that digital storage will be more stable than analog storage of information... If there is such a source anywhere, I'd love to read more about it.
I never said digital storage is more reliable then analog storage. It’s the physical media construction quality itself that determines how long it well last. One can place a analog signal or digital signal on a tape or optical disc and the optical disc well far outlast a 20 to 30 year old tape.

For example Laserdisc back in 1978 was 100% analog for video and audio. It was not until around the time of the launch on the audio CD in 1980 did optical discs start to get PCM digital storage. Then in the early 80’s Laserdisc analog video with digital audio. We have 43 year old analog Laserdiscs in perfectly working conditions as prove that optical media when pressed (stamped) correctly can last many decades long and in theory over a 1,000 years long when stored correctly. VHS tape is from around 1976 and was 100% analog until JVC released Digital VHS in 1998 that allowed up to 50GB of storage on a tape media. However analog Laserdisc and digital 50GB Blu-ray well far outlast any tape based media. Just try heating up and freezing tapes and they well be destroyed while the optical discs well survive as long as they are not heated up past the point of melting.

Last edited by HDTV1080P; 08-09-2021 at 11:38 PM.
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Old 08-09-2021, 11:37 PM   #29
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I never said digital storage is more reliable then analog storage.
I believe I was responding to something that Penguin said. The comment about survivors of the human species in some possible far-off future.
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Old 08-09-2021, 11:40 PM   #30
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At this point, it just seems very highly speculative to say the discs will last at least that long.

That doesn't mean they should stop working on technology - or any other absurd notion like you keep trying to put in my mouth.

It's not going to make any difference to any of us personally, so why should we get into a silly back-and-forth about whether or not it's a realistic estimate? If it is, great, but we're not going to be around to find out.
Whether or not the 1,000 year estimate is accurate the point of this thread is to demonstrate that pressed optical discs and M-Discs are far more reliable than any other storage medium for digital data.

The OP clearly stated the source of these estimates:
Quote:
Originally Posted by HDTV1080P View Post
According to online information the Department of Defense and other military organizations have ran age testing and other massive tests on the Blu-ray and DVD optical discs.
While I have no idea if discs will last anywhere close to 1,000 years I certainly trust them way more than other storage medium and that's why I continue to buy pressed optical discs.
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Old 08-09-2021, 11:41 PM   #31
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I believe I was responding to something that Penguin said. The comment about survivors of the human species in some possible far-off future.
I realize you were not talking directly to me but wanted to clarity its the media and it does not matter if it was stored analog or digital. Digital normally has better quality picture and sound when compared to analog.
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Old 08-10-2021, 12:00 AM   #32
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Whether or not the 1,000 year estimate is accurate the point of this thread is to demonstrate that pressed optical discs and M-Discs are far more reliable than any other storage medium for digital data.
The thread itself doesn't demonstrate anything, it's just repeating a statement made elsewhere. The statement may or may not be completely accurate... we should be able to express some skepticism about things that can't be proven...
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Old 08-10-2021, 02:44 PM   #33
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Please show me a single optical disc that's been around 1,000 years and is still working
That is impossible to show a single optical media disk that has lasted 1,000 years, optical media only being around for about 38 years or so.

Hell it's almost impossible to show you phonograph that is older than about circa 1878. But here we go.
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Old 08-10-2021, 03:32 PM   #34
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Old 08-10-2021, 07:06 PM   #35
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900 years from now someone will discover a vault filled with pristine M-Discs.

"Wow! These look like new. I think they're information discs. What do we do with them?"

"I have no idea. The technology to retrieve the data was lost centuries ago. Throw them onto the disintegration pile."
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Old 08-11-2021, 01:15 AM   #36
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900 years from now someone will discover a vault filled with pristine M-Discs.

"Wow! These look like new. I think they're information discs. What do we do with them?"

"I have no idea. The technology to retrieve the data was lost centuries ago. Throw them onto the disintegration pile."
And that's assuming there are any intelligent life forms on Earth (human or otherwise) roughly 900 years from now
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Old 08-11-2021, 01:35 AM   #37
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And that's assuming there are any intelligent life forms on Earth (human or otherwise) roughly 900 years from now
I was thinking sentient fish with opposable thumbs.
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Old 08-11-2021, 01:37 AM   #38
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I was thinking sentient fish with opposable thumbs.
If they ever evolve to have opposable thumbs, they are welcome to rule over the planet. They'll probably do a better job of it than we did
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Old 08-11-2021, 01:48 AM   #39
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If they ever evolve to have opposable thumbs, they are welcome to rule over the planet. They'll probably do a better job of it than we did
Agreed.
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Old 08-14-2021, 08:01 AM   #40
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Originally Posted by HDTV1080P View Post
Since a time machine does not exist,
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There is no guarantee since a time machine does not exist to go forward to the year 3021 and travel back to report the results.


I really wish there was such a thing as a time machine.
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