Are CDs a preview to what's gonna happen to Blu-rays?

[Tibor Lugosi]

With almost all new music being released digitally or on vinyl, CDs are almost defunct. You can buy CDs for pennies these days - I found a deal on Craigslist and got about 1000 CDs AND 6 Ikea Gnedby towers for $100!!!
Is this what we can expect in a few years, our beloved Blu-ray collections will be worth next to nothing?
Already stores are limiting Blu-ray stock and new streaming services are popping up everywhere.
Don't get me wrong, I am a diehard physical media fan forever, but I'm an old school guy in many ways. I love my shelves loaded with Blu-rays and CDs and books and magazines, but my kids are not impressed. What means so much to me is almost meaningless to them. Even my wife I think would love it if I decided to get rid of some stuff... My collection isn't among the largest on this site, but I've been at it for quite a few years, having upgraded from VHS to DVD to Blu-ray and even a few 4K editions.
Nowadays we find Blu-rays at Dollar stores, at the flea markets and Thrift stores.
So do you think your collection will depreciate or somewhat hold its value? And will we be able to buy movies on Blu-ray and 4K in a few years?

[D00mM4r1n3]

The CD situation has gotten worse, Lorde's new album Solar Power isn't available on CD but they're selling a CD sized box on Amazon that comes with a code to redeem digitally. It's called a "Discless Music Box", and is getting trashed in reviews. Apparently Lorde feels CD's are dead and pollute the Earth, but vinyl is somehow OK.

[singhcr]

Originally Posted by D00mM4r1n3

The CD situation has gotten worse, Lorde's new album Solar Power isn't available on CD but they're selling a CD sized box on Amazon that comes with a code to redeem digitally. It's called a "Discless Music Box", and is getting trashed in reviews. Apparently Lorde feels CD's are dead and pollute the Earth, but vinyl is somehow OK.

As much as I love LPs, if use of materials is your concern a record takes up a lot more plastic than a CD does, and selling a box with NO PHYSICAL MEDIA in it is the most hypocritical thing of all.

[magnusbe]

For the larger languages physical media will survive for a while. For smaller language groups Blu-ray seem to be on the way out, 4K is a non-starter, and only DVD releases are somewhat consistent.

Personally, I have almost never played the CDs I have bought in recent years. They just end up on the shelf wrapped in plastic, and I play the digital copy or stream them. The CDs no longer exist as a medium to play music, they are just a physical collector's item. Lorde is ahead of the pack, I think.

I think the only discs that will retain value are those in small print runs, and even those will need a buyer to be worth something.

[Jar Jar Stinks]

Are CDs a preview to what's gonna happen to Blu-rays? The short answer is "yes."

A disc is a delivery device. Nothing more. A stack of 1,000 CDs measures approximately 32 feet high. They take up a lot of space. With no loss of quality, you can fit those same CDs with album art onto a 256 GB flash drive. I play all my music through internet-connected speakers and YouTube Music. I never have to touch a CD.

Putting legal considerations aside (and I'm not advocating anyone does this), a person could do the same thing with Blu-rays. Using a compression program, one could fit hundreds of movies on a portable hard drive.

But what's really going to kill the BD is streaming and digital ownership. People like the convenience of not having to buy and STORE their movies. I have a good-sized collection of DVDs, BDs, and UHDs, but I almost always watch a streaming version if it's available to me. I can start watching on my 4K TV and finish watching on my tablet when I'm in bed.

Common movies will certainly depreciate like CDs. Uncommon BD titles will hold their value or appreciate over time if they're not available to stream. And, finally, I believe most 4K titles will appreciate over time because it's a niche product.

[Panson]

Depends. Quality still has something to do with it. The CDs and Blu-rays I'm interested in are currently overpriced.

Sky-is-falling refrain doesn't bother me. From time to time, I'll check to see if prices are ready for a buy or two or three. I'm patient.

[unberechenbar]

The artist I mainly listen to is still releasing CDs, so I'm quite happy about that. I do find it unfortunate that some movie soundtracks only got digital releases though, like Dark Phoenix. It'll be interesting to see which will last longer in the end, CD or Blu-ray.

[mysticwaterfall]

In terms of "value", Ive never considered my movie collection to be an investment to resell later so it doesn't really matter to me what its worth to sell.

[dcx4610]

Eventually I think movies will go the way of CDs but I think it will be a much slower death.

I was a diehard CD collector and held out a long time from going digital. Eventually, I wrapped my head around the fact that I could rip my CDs into FLAC and it was an identical copy to what was on the CD. My issue was I didn't want lossy digital music. CD was superior. Once FLAC and lossless audio came along, the only point was the art and having something physical.

Nowadays, I get everything in FLAC and have it backed up numerous times over. It feels like I'm still collecting music and that I still have complete control. It's just in a much more easier to manage format.

Movies I feel are completely different. One, the size is massive and unlike CDs, you are getting tons of different features on top of the movie. Also, I think the audience for movies is much bigger. Practically everyone likes movies but not everyone is big into music. A lot of people are content just to listen what is on the radio or streaming on Youtube or Spotify.

There is the FLAC equivalent for movies (MKV) but the file size is so big that I'd rather just have a movie on my shelf at that point. Plus, you can't simply download MKV files (legally or easily) with all of the features intact like you can FLAC for audio. It's just flat out easier and more convenient to buy the disc and have it forever.

I've said it before, I'm not in love with discs. I don't need to physically own things. What I do need is complete control and the best possible quality. With CDs, I found an option with FLAC. With movies, the best option is still the physical disc and probably will always be that way. Unlike music, studios are NEVER going to put out DRM free copies of their content.

[IRLM]

If comercial value is important for you then you might want to begin selling some stuff. Demand is jut not going to be there in the long term.

For now, streaming might actually be helping the physical media business. As long as streaming is a thing we can be certain that legal digital downloads won't be.

[albertbj]

People may be willing to get rid of their CD collections for pennies on the dollar, as the OP suggests, but new CD prices have actually been going up. Now, I realize the pandemic is likely part of the reason for that, but I suspect this trend will continue once things are back to normal. Lower demand = fewer discs being produced = higher cost per disc.

I expect the same thing to happen with DVD and BD in the years to come. I wouldn't be surprised if new releases cost $30-40 instead of $20-30 in about 5 years.

[meremortal]

CD is definitely a total niche these days. Just looked at a chart and numbers and only about 3% as many cds are shipped compared to 2000. In other words, cd sales are at about their lowest sales point since 1985 or so. A lot of people may not even realize new music is still released on the format. And in many instances it may not be. It's certainly not a very visible format anymore with hardly any physical media chains still around, Best Buy and warehouse stores no longer carrying them, etc. And places that still do like Wal Mart, it may be more limited to top 40, compilations or proven catalog sellers. Miss the days when record stores, like video stores, could be communal places to make friends and talk to people.

[kevin87]

Originally Posted by D00mM4r1n3

The CD situation has gotten worse, Lorde's new album Solar Power isn't available on CD but they're selling a CD sized box on Amazon that comes with a code to redeem digitally. It's called a "Discless Music Box", and is getting trashed in reviews. Apparently Lorde feels CD's are dead and pollute the Earth, but vinyl is somehow OK.

I'm sure she does worse things to pollute the Earth than have some CD's pressed.

I still buy CDs if I like the artist, which I'll admit isn't as much these days but that's because most music produced is mostly just singles and I can listen to them other ways... and most isn't worth listening to anyway. I'm ok with buying a few bonus tracks and non-album guest/compilation appearances in FLAC when it comes down to it. I'd never buy a digital-only album though, and have had artists I like do that which just leads to me losing interest. Glad I don't like Lorde now lol

I think overall, we've seen disc prices go down lower due to streaming, they have to drop the price real low to move product. I don't think we'll ever get to people selling 100 BDs for 10 cents each but more people prefer the convenience of streaming over owning anything on disc regardless of quality. But I think as long as you give people a reason to buy something, there will be some that still buy it. Might not be so mainstream, but it'll still have a market. Especially movies because you can buy CD quality flac/wav files but I don't think you can buy BD quality movie files. Yet?

[Brian81]

Young people in general don't like the space they take up or don't see the point. Some older than me in their mid 40s haven't bought "DVDs" in over a decade. They just stream. The vinyl thing is an odd revival. They take up more space than CDs, the hardware to play them is insanely expensive compared to that which plays CDs (talking about $300 and up for just a stylus alone that is more than conical or elliptical). The only reason they sound better is because of the loudness war.

[8mile13]

A physical disk does not take much space unless you live in a tiny house, last a lifetime, is totally yours and is very personal. Digital is pretty much air which needs to be stored on a disk which needs to be replaced after a number of years (or maybe hire a cloud or a subscription which allows for listening to someone elses library...which cost money...looking at a 10 year period of that you could have bought lots of discs instead). Also for the most part digital downloads numbers form sites quality is inferior to CD quality.

Put the inferior downloads aside, add the used disc markt numbers and take into account the coronavirus restrictions for physical stores and look at individual countries when talking about numbers here.

[Hitman Horton]

I have a large music collection and I've been collecting for years. I've never looked to see what anything is worth because I don't care. People are getting rid of their CDs and if there's stuff that I like, I buy it. As long as there's people like me, there will be a market for physical media. There's something to be said for holding the case in your hands and flipping through the booklet, reading the liner notes. You can't do that with a digital file. It's not JUST about sound quality.

[VikingHead2000]

I have over 400 CD’s and that’s just singles. I don’t buy mainstream music because it’s total shit. I buy all of my music from indie labels who still sell physical media. I do buy some music digitally, only if it’s only available that way, which is about less then 10% of my music collection. I don’t have a huge home, and I have a huge media room that I store everything I own. I also have all of my collection on multiple hard drives. CD’s aren’t going anywhere anytime soon.

[Warm Gun]

Originally Posted by 8mile13

A physical disk does not take much space unless you live in a tiny house

Most millennials don't even own houses. Only about 43 percent. Who knows how many own bigger houses? I think space matters to the vast majority of people. I wish Blu-ray cases had been designed smaller.

[RadRen]

Bitrates through streaming are usually about half or less of what you get from a physical Blu-ray or UHD BD. That's a significant quality difference the layman may not care about but the enthusiasts and collectors do. For most movies these formats are the best quality you can get. (if the masters are identical between BD and streaming, that is)
There is also the fact that through streaming you generally don't own a copy of the movie, and the streaming service can take it down whenever rights get transferred or when they feel like it.

CDs however are often outclassed by digital downloads for both convenience and quality. Even so, I occasionally buy CDs especially when they include physical extras like liner notes.

[JohnnyF]

The decline of CD was also hastened when new cars no longer had stereos with players.

Streaming is fine for casual music or movie experiences but not everyone has access to decent internet. There is a reason why one of the last Blockbuster Videos was in Alaska. If they can’t stream, of course a physical option is going to be used.

Personally, I hate how ephemeral streaming is. Hitchcock made 50 films and you’d be lucky to find five of them streaming at any one time. As much as my collection has overtaken my apartment and my life, I’d still rather own something and be able to revisit it whenever then hope that it will be on a streaming service that I’m paying for.

The pandemic has not helped physical media in the sense that supply chains have been massively disrupted and the few plants still in operation are barely able to keep up. On the plus side for us collectors, it did probably get a few more catalog titles released because companies wanted to put out something.